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  • Yahoo: Still Opportunity To Profit From A Buyout [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. Yes, I was actually eyeing $19 in the article because of the 52 week high and usually buyouts occur with a premium above the high. I wanted to be conservative for those reading but I really wouldn't be surprised to see the deal done at $21.
    Dec 5, 2011. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: Still Opportunity To Profit From A Buyout [View article]
    Yes, that's why at this point it's like I have a call option in a way. If Yahoo accepts the minority offer from SIlver Lake or TPG the stock will usually stay around that price and I will take my 14% and run but if I get a nice premium offer in the $20 area for the whole company then I get a nice reward. That's why I liked the risk reward scenario. Yes, there is risk that Yahoo could sell off hard if it takes the $16.60 minority offer but doesn't usually happen because the market usually sees the bid as the current value of the stock because that is what private equity is buying shares for. That gives me a cushion but nothing is 100%, there are always exemptions when it comes to trading.
    Dec 5, 2011. 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Research In Motion Deterioration Continue? [View article]
    I recommend you focus on a industry and add one industry at a time as you get comfortable. I like to focus on the market leaders in that industry first then work my way down. This will allow you to better follow the trends and seasonality of some industries. It is also important to narrow down your investing style as well. Are you comfortable investing in turnaround situations which could get real rough at times or are you only interested in companies that are doing well and are in strong uptrend's? It will definitely take some time to learn but don't stop learning.

    My trading and investing style has evolved over the years due to me learning new ways to better fine tune my investments. Just learn from your mistakes. When I first started my losing trades taught be so much and helped my tweak my style.
    Dec 4, 2011. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Research In Motion Deterioration Continue? [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. RIMM is in a interesting situation because phone makers heavily rely on product launches to make it or break it. In this case RIMM and just about every other manufacturer have released their arsenal of devices for the year. Manufacturers usually save their best devices for this time of year because it's the busiest. Going into the holiday season you will know which devices will be the top stocking stuffer for the year.
    These are the latest marketshare rates I have http://bit.ly/rVHcwy Normally RIMM should be able to maintain itself around its current market share but this year is different because of two big factors.

    The first factor is that Apple launched the iPhone 4S. As crazy as that may sound, Apple is the 500 pound gorilla when it comes to smartphones. Unfortunately that RIMM's category. The new SIRI program is making it extremely popular this year and I expect this to have a big cut in sales this holiday season. Samsung is doing extremely well with its Galaxy S2 as well. This device was popular internationally as well which makes it even more of a challenge for RIMM. I believe that the market may be surprised on the earnings miss in the next quarter.

    The second factor is the tablet business. The iPad2 and the Kindle Fire which I talked about here http://seekingalpha.co... will be a big winner. This of course will be very bad for the Playbook.

    Regarding the smartphone recession, business has been pretty busy this year and don't see signs of it slowing yet. The reason is because wireless is in an interesting phase where customers are upgrading from older basic devices to smartphones. Currently about 30% of US customers own smartphones. This trend should carry on into the next couple years which should keep the industry afloat. This doesn't include the mobile broadband devices like tablets that are now becoming popular as well. Only about 5% of wireless customers own a mobile broadband product. So even if market size may be growing slowly smartphone sales should continue to grow because of this trend.

    Regarding sales this quarter, I believe you could play RIMM two ways. If your short I would ride it till about the next earnings release or QNX phone launch. I would re-evaluate at that point to see if consumers are getting on the RIMM bandwagon. This of course would only be a short term trade. The other option is you could play it from the long side but you have to have a much longer term time horizon and strongly believe in the turnaround that will occur in the future. I would average into the position the way I detailed here http://seekingalpha.co... I won't be to worried about the earnings miss because I've seen companies come back from the dead several times. What would be key for RIMM though is they change management and adapt to the changes in the business. Their new phone looks promising you could see it here. http://bit.ly/slasIb
    Dec 4, 2011. 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Research In Motion Deterioration Continue? [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. I would have to agree that sometimes sales reps will steer customers because they are comfortable with certain devices. In many cases sales reps like to start with the most popular phones in the store and in this case would be an Android or Apple device. This is because the more features the easier it is to show the capabilities of the phone. This is why manufacturers have such wild swings in our business. One quarter Blackberry is the hottest thing on the planet then next quarter it's Samsung. A product launch could literally make or break a company.
    Dec 4, 2011. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion: HTC Is A Sign That The Knife Will Keep On Falling [View article]
    Like I said in the article "Research In Motion is still out of touch with reality and will continue to fall. Research In Motion should restate its projections instead of surprising investors next year." Interesting how today they came out and restated its earnings. I wrote about it a good 7 days before RIMM's surprise announcement.

    RIMM said," In its warning, RIM said it no longer expects to meet its full-year earnings forecast of $5.25 to $6 per share because of weaker than expected smartphone shipments, a $360 million after-tax writedown on PlayBook inventories and a $50 million charge related to the October outage." You can find it all here http://yhoo.it/v0fRuz
    Dec 3, 2011. 04:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee: Answers To All Investors' Questions [View article]
    All that yet GMCR is almost at $60 as of this writing. which is 40% higher from the $40 lows. Interesting.
    Dec 2, 2011. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Catalysts That Will Drive The Future Of Sirius [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. I actually think a Liberty takeover is a real possibility. I feel Liberty is starting to see the possibilities of its SIRI investment and might want to try to buy it early to maximize its return. I do expect to see a pretty good premium if this were to happen which of course would be huge for existing SIRI shareholders. SIRI will not sellout for a low price now that things are starting to change. I expect a 30-40% premium above current prices would be reasonable, this would place it around $2.50.

    I see a Liberty purchase of more shares or complete buyout as a big positive for SIRI. Shareholders will benefit either way as long as SIRI doesn't issue new shares. The only downside to the buyout is SIRI shareholders will miss out the big moves after the buyout.
    Nov 28, 2011. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Apple Reach $10,000 A Share? [View article]
    I was just trying to drive a point. I said," Now I'm not predicting that Apple will reach $10,000 anytime soon; I'm trying to open up your mind and bust a long-time investment myth. Many investors are calling the top of Apple purely because the company failed to break its high of over $426 share.".

    I'm trying to get investors not to focus on the share price but the factors beneath it. To many investors get to distracted when a stock hits $100 or $500 and lose focus. Investors feel that it might sell off because now they feel it's expensive. The company could still be performing well but the investor ends up selling because of fear of loss and in most cases will miss the next big move up. This article is for new investors who are frustrated why they always miss the big move. You sell when the underlying factors tell you to not when the stock scares you.
    Nov 28, 2011. 10:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Apple Reach $10,000 A Share? [View article]
    You obviously missed this, "Now I'm not predicting that Apple will reach $10,000 anytime soon; I'm trying to open up your mind and bust a long-time investment myth. Many investors are calling the top of Apple purely because the company failed to break its high of over $426 share."

    This was in response to critics that make investments based off price. Obviously $10,000 is an exaggeration but sometimes you have to exaggerate to drive home a point. In this case it appears you missed the point and was to focused on the fact that the article had the words $10,000 and Apple together.
    Nov 28, 2011. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Safe-Cheap Post Bankruptcy Stocks For 2012 [View article]
    I also like to trade Post Bankruptcies. I like to play them differently though,I like them better the first time they get relisted. You get a smoother ride to the upside in some cases I play them before they list. I did this on Visteon and got a nice move. I got it in the $40's in the pink sheets and sold it in the $70's when it listed. A lot of the bigger companies trade on a "To Be Issued Basis" in the pink's.
    Nov 28, 2011. 10:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Catalysts That Will Drive The Future Of Sirius [View article]
    Thank you for the comment, sorry for the confusion but I view price more as a range since it's impossible to say a stock will stay above an exact price. So when I say investors who have a position above the $1 area, I mean if you have a position with an average price of $1 and whatever cents would be rewarded. So it could be $1.25 or $1.40, etc. I'm bullish on SIRI and expect it to get above $2 next year so I use pullbacks as opportunities to buy and lower my average price when possible.

    This article explains how I build a position http://seekingalpha.co...
    Nov 28, 2011. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion: HTC Is A Sign That The Knife Will Keep On Falling [View article]
    I've been short on RIMM since September at $30. Here is my article http://seekingalpha.co...
    I just say it like it is and its up to the stock to react to the news. I'm not completely bearish on RIMM and feel when the line of QNX devices are launched they have a chance to complete a turnaround. You can find that article here http://seekingalpha.co...

    I own several wireless stores and RIMM products are just not selling right now. I want RIMM to do well but unfortunately consumers are just not buying like they used to 3 years ago. The Samsung Galaxy 2 and iPhones are what's selling. I don't even remember the last time I sold a Bold or Torch in any of my stores.
    Nov 27, 2011. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee: Answers To All Investors' Questions [View article]
    If you read the article completely I said I planned to accumulate a position, this means to gather a increasing quantity if you didn't know. I buy on the way down on many of my trades to get an average price which I specified. This is a very advanced strategy that I don't recommend for many investors. I detailed the specifics on how I do this in my S&P 500 strategy that I linked at the bottom of my article. My strategy is very similar to how hedge funds and mutual funds enter in a position. For many investors it is prudent for them to just buy at one price since they will most likely get in trouble if they don't understand.

    To answer your statement of," You should just give up investing", I have been investing this way for over 10 years and has been working great for me. If you have any investments in any funds you would know that they invest this way. I used to manage money and when you buy a position you just can't buy 100,000 shares at one price.

    So if you are wondering why I do this, it is because you never know how low the stock will go. If I had a crystal ball and could predict the bottom every time the this then obviously I would just be doing that. This of course is impossible so I buy in a range. This gives me an opportunity to build a position in the area I feel would be near the bottom. Compare this to buying at one price and taking a stop loss when you are wrong.
    Nov 27, 2011. 02:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee: Answers To All Investors' Questions [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, couldn't agree more.
    Nov 27, 2011. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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