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  • Why Groupon Is The Next Google [View article]
    I could hardly call a response to critics a reason to call the company a pump and dump. They may have violated the quiet period due to the memo Mason sent to employees but that is probably because of all the negative press the company is getting. I could understand why Mason would be frustrated.

    Their PR boss left because of disagreements nothing more than that. As stated in the article the PR head would have not allowed the memo answering the critics because it would violate the quiet period.
    Sep 1 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Groupon Is The Next Google [View article]
    Groupon may have a hardcore sales team but they still have a 6 to 9 month waitlist for merchants to signup. That looks like a business model that's working for me. I'm ok with Insiders cashing out but you have to remember most of that is hedgefund and VC money. Groupon has been trading on Second Market for years. Those hedgefunds look to buy into hot companies in order to flip those shares later. Founder Andrew Mason, cashed out alittle over $20 million last year, not much in the big scheme of things. I would cash out some too, especially since Groupon is now expected to be worth $15-20 billion.

    The insiders and executives had been selling stock since Groupon had a market cap of $5 billion. I don't necessarily view that as a bad thing as long as the business stays on track.
    Sep 1 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Groupon Is The Next Google [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, I buy using multiple entries so the first position will be small anyway. I like to consider it a tester lot. As they progress I add to my position.
    Sep 1 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Groupon Is The Next Google [View article]
    I agree that it's definitely not good to have Google as a competitor, but it also shows the potential of the business that is currently being questioned by wall street. Yes, Google has a big base of merchants to work off of, as well as services that they could link together. The challenge I see for Google is getting the whole process to work together smoothly which has been the challenge for Yelp and Facebook. Pure internet companies don't have the back end structure in place to handle a daily deals business correctly. The customer service and sales team alone will take up most of Google's time. Can Google one day get it all together after throwing billions at it? I definitely think so, but by that time, Groupon would be so far ahead. Just check out their growth over the last 2 years.

    The industry is going to head from quantity to quality once the dust settles. Right now there are alot of daily deal sites but the problem is what are you getting for that price. I think once consumers start demanding quality products and services Groupon will be in a great position to take advantage of that being the first mover. Groupon has the oldest database of merchants that have already performed deals. I see alot of things changing as this industry matures and at the end of the day, Groupon will be a major competitor.
    Sep 1 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Groupon Is The Next Google [View article]
    Facebook Deals just closed and Yelp is scaling back their daily deal business. Yes I agree with the market being crowded, but at the end of the day I see Groupon being the last man standing.
    Sep 1 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Groupon Is The Next Google [View article]
    I say "I feel" because I'm letting the reader know that it's my opinion. I actually understand the reason for their COSI accounting. The reason they wanted to breakout marketing and non-cash expenses was they felt that it was non essential to their business. That's why if removed, they would be instantly profitable. This is all in the prospectus. I do understand that they were forced to change their accounting method but that's only because of pressure from the SEC and underwriters because they were worried that people wouldn't understand it. Which looks like is the case. Hence good for investors like me.

    Groupon is the fastest growing company in terms of sales to go public. This has not been acheived by any other company. My information is backed by their prospectus which I attached to the article.

    What is your opinion of slick salespeople people backed by?
    Sep 1 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Don't Get Your Hopes Up Just Yet [View article]
    My statement implied an equity offering since banks meet capital requirements through selling assets and selling equity. I didn't know I needed to add the word "equity" for investors that don't understand how banks meet capital requirements.

    You are also misinterpreting a significant part of information. They did not say, "They did not see a need to raise capital via an equity offering."

    Jerry Dubrowski, Bank Of America Spokesman said,"We don't believe we need to raise capital through an equity offering to meet our business goals." We don't believe, are the keywords.
    Sep 1 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Don't Get Your Hopes Up Just Yet [View article]
    Check the link, the analysis is there. Unfortunately Bank of America doesn't breakout performance of individual portfolios so you have to estimate and compare how similar portfolios are doing in order to come to a conclusion.

    I don't see how owning a securitized portfolio and BAC's portfolio are two different things when that was the reason for the financial crisis in the first place. CDO's are what banks invested in, they don't originate and hold mortgages anymore.
    Sep 1 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion: Market Has the Valuations All Wrong [View article]
    Conservatively, Adding their cash and patents you are looking at around $15 billion conservatively. If your gonna factor their current earnings and run that forward RIMM is worth more but I'm bearish on the future of their business.

    I also didn't add their enterprise side of the business which handles corporate email. I completely discounted that, since they have been giving that away for small businesses in the US to compete with Google. RIMM used to charge $5,000 for small businesses to use their enterprise program. If that business were to be sold, I don't think it would be sizable. This of course is hard to come up with an exact valuation since they don't report earnings separately.
    Aug 31 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patents Aren't Eastman Kodak's Only Value [View article]
    They had $2.9 billion in NOL carryforwards at the end of 2010.
    Aug 30 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: The Next Growth Opportunity [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. I agree with you, the enterprise side will be a big driver of their future growth and as more details are released about the new OS, share holders will benefit.
    Aug 29 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Strategy: Outsmart The Next Sell-Off [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. The last 10 years have been range bound and the strategy I mentioned is what I'm doing to profit from the swings until a new trend breaks out. If you bought this day in Aug 2001 you are just about breakeven, even after a 10 year hold.

    Following my example above you would have booked profits of $71,800 on half of your shares and would have 2,000 shares that are $60,000 in profits. If you were to liquidate the rest of the position then you would have a return of about 36%. Of course I would recommend some sort trailing method or plan to play the next selloff if you don't get your move up. Of course that is based on the traders individual plan. This was only from the time of your first buy in 10/2008 and doesn't include if you played it the same way in 01-02. If you would like a higher ROI, you could use options as mentioned above that would allow you to leverage up your position as well as lower your cost basis.

    Yes, I used the SPY in the example above because it is a simple guideline that new investors could use and it's harder for them to get in trouble. I actually like to invest in hard hit sectors that have been beaten up real hard. I played homebuilders and banks during the recovery and did real well. I'm looking at the banks and homebuilders once again but it's still not in an area that I'm comfortable building a long position in yet. Also watching retailers and small caps for great opportunities on the next move.
    Aug 29 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Strategy: Outsmart The Next Sell-Off [View article]
    Yes, there are periods when I have a large amount of cash. I do use swing trading strategies to trade in between those periods to generate returns. My belief is I don't have to be invested at all the times, I just want to make money. These last 10 years have been real volatile than normal and if you a regular buy and hold investor, you are probably beakeven or underwater depending on where you bought. I use a trailing method instead of the simple profit taking guidelines I posted. I use those in my trading but posted those conservative guidelines for new traders that may get in trouble with their positions. This is an open blog and the more complicated the strategy, the more people won't be able to follow directions. That's why I recommend to make adjustments as you get comfortable and learn the strategy. In a trending environment it would do amazing after pullbacks it just hasn't happened yet in the last 10 years.
    Aug 29 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortune Brands: Value Is About To Be Unleashed [View article]
    You could also read my article about the upcoming Kraft spinoff.
    Aug 29 01:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion: Market Has the Valuations All Wrong [View article]
    The claim was based off the valuation that was recently allocated to the Nortel patents. Those patents were originally valued at $600 million in 2009 and now two years later were sold for $4.5 billion. Nokia originally wanted to buy it for $600 million but Nortel creditors wanted at least $1 billion. That is why it went to auction.

    RIMM doesn't disclose licensing revenues separately, so the only way to determine proper valuation is by evaluating each one of the 2,500 patents individually and estimating potential market valuation. That unfortunately, is not something I could do. So I looked at past valuations of the Nortel patents and based my valuation off that. Now of course there is a large room for error with that, but it's the same thing any patent attorney will tell you. There is no exact science to estimating patent value and any estimate is just that, an estimate. This is especially the case when you don't have access to licensing revenues.

    Now when talking about the network/service business are you excluding the hardware portion? Are you just talking about their network which they use for their exclusive services like BBM? If so, that is very tough to estimate because they also don't currently breakout any revenue derived from those streams individually. That network is also designed to carry data exclusively and cannot carry voice signals. I don't know if that could be converted, but if it can't, any value would be severely impacted if it was to be separated and sold as a separate service and not tied to a wireless carrier. I would estimate potential revenue at around $2 per subscriber, per month for just data services like BBM. T-Mobile currently charges their prepaid customers $10/mo to add Blackberry service to their phones. I would assume RIMM would get at least $2 of that. There are about 60 million users which could bring revenues of about $1.4 billion annually.
    Aug 29 12:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment