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  • Texas Pacific Land - The Ultimate Buy And Hold Stock [View article]
    TimeonTarget, there is a map in the 2011 annual report that shows the locations of their acreage in each county.
    Jun 8 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Will The HDD Dominate Data Storage? More Than Long Enough [View article]
    Love your work and the writing style.. Wish more SA writes and investors understood that all we are doing is, as you say, "making assumptions and not predictions about a thoroughly inscrutable future."..

    It never ceases to amaze me the number of articles and then the comments that are posted here that are all debating "unknowable unknowns" at the time as if there can be a definitive answer at the time of the post. Anyone that posts comments implying they know more about the future than someone else is just fooling themselves and sometimes others as well.

    Keep writing your analysis the way you do and hopefully more investors will learn and benefit from it. And apply it to their own stock universe.

    Tim
    Jun 5 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UFP Technologies: A Cheap, Low-Risk Stock With An Improving Outlook For 2013 [View article]
    Thanks for sharing your insights on a very interesting investment idea. It was good to see some good old fashioned "Porter" analysis. I am always encouraged to see a company using its great balance sheet to reinvest in its business.

    In 2008 the stock went from $6/share to almost $14/share in a few months, do you recall what happened during this period? Thanks
    Jun 5 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Pacific Land - The Ultimate Buy And Hold Stock [View article]
    Here is a link to the largest shareholder of TPL, Horizon Kinetics (21%) and their recent thoughts on the copmany. This was published in April.

    http://bit.ly/13Fm7fn
    Jun 5 10:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unlocking Value At Magnetek [View article]
    I did a piece recently on AHC that did similar analysis of the pension liability. They are using 3.7%, down from 5.3% a few years ago. They have been overpaying their obligation to get the liability down. However, they just announced they were going to change their minds in 2013, freeing up $10+ in additional FCF....

    This is something NO ONE is thinking about. Everyone always worries about pension liabilities in a negative way and is always a "bear" point. But rising interest rates REDUCE THE LIABILITY. At some point, this will be a "new investment thesis.".. Like Templeton Funds slogan.. "We see today, what others see eventually.".. Thanks for the article.

    1. Most investors do not understand pension accounting at all.
    2. Most investors overestimate the potential negative impact of the liability on most companies. It can certainly be debated how to think about pension liability when valuing a company (not going to do it here!!! LOL), most investors think of it just like regular term debt or credit facilities in terms of liquidity risk, which is just not the case most of the time.
    3. Companies continue to get relief from cash payment liabilities from Congress all the time.
    Jun 1 04:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Pacific Land - The Ultimate Buy And Hold Stock [View article]
    Jeff678.. You are absolutely correct. Thanks for catching that error.

    It appears as though copied the wrong formula in my spreadsheet. I need to check everything by hand next time.

    Sent in a correction.
    Jun 1 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Pacific Land - The Ultimate Buy And Hold Stock [View article]
    wow. That is a lot of research on your part.

    here is the link to the annual report with the map in at the end for anyone that is interested.

    http://bit.ly/19va34J
    Jun 1 12:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Pacific Land - The Ultimate Buy And Hold Stock [View article]
    Thomas,

    I think it is due to the oil production and maybe the urban development of the county just makes the land more scarce in general. TPL says that they don't have much land at all that can be commercially developed.

    I am trying to get a better handle on that since it is a big part of the story.
    May 31 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Pacific Land - The Ultimate Buy And Hold Stock [View article]
    I agree that at these prices it is not as attractive as before. I did try to make the point that most investors miss. The idea that as stocks go up they actually become less attractive to serious investors and as they go down they almost always become more attractive. I like the fact that they will by fewer shares the higher the price goes. Eventually the arbitrage between creating and destroying value for the long term shareholder by buying back shares goes away the higher the stock price goes. Are we there yet? Maybe. But unlike most companies, at least it will be doing less damage automatically and not do what most companies did in 2008-2009, which was buy a lot of stock at the highs and relatively less at the bottom.

    Also tried to help investors with a scenario that on its face would be taken as a "negative" to the typical retail investor (no land sales, declining income from lower oil prices or lower # of wells or production per well or all three and no easement income) to help them "get ahead of the news" so to speak and formulate a plan of action if the stock price reacted to such news or other extemporaneous events. We try and avoid thinking about the macro, even though it does have a direct impact on this type of company. So we try and look at it as if the macro is lousy and see what happens to the thesis.

    Our articles are as much about helping investors learn about how to analyze a company and develop a process as it is just for timely idea generation. Which is why it was great that SA selected it as an A-R idea even though it isn't the typical "buy or short it today" idea.

    What other stocks have similar properties to TPL? We would love to look at them.
    May 31 01:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Pacific Land - The Ultimate Buy And Hold Stock [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. It is one of the most unique stocks out there, which is why we wanted to bring it to investors' attention, even after the big run up. It is the kind of stock that should be on the "what should I consider buying in a market panic" list..
    May 31 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Wait For The Clouds To Clear - Buy ATI Now [View article]
    Thank you for your comments. We just had another article on TPL published today.
    May 31 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brief Interview With BODY CEO In Jacksonville Newspaper [View instapost]
    Azam, it is on my list of things to look at.

    It could eventually get on to ASNA acquisition list. It is an area that they are not in and a good compliment to their other lines. I think PLCE is on their list too..
    May 29 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brief Interview With BODY CEO In Jacksonville Newspaper [View instapost]
    Thanks,, So am I..

    There are a few retailers left, but turnarounds are always tough.
    May 26 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Wait For The Clouds To Clear - Buy ATI Now [View article]
    Well said!!

    I agree about the China demand obsession and the "sell the new news" sentiment that pervades investor sentiment in companies like this or most companies these days. Fortunately for us (and perhaps unfortunately for most investors who haven't learned this yet), we have learned that stocks are only really cheap when things are obviously wrong and there is "no visible catalyst" and not to focus too much on that as a long term thesis.

    Like we said in our BODY report, companies are usually "cheap for a reason". It is the investor's job to figure out if the company is "cheap for reasons that eventually go away.".... 
    May 23 12:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A.H. Belo: Hidden Value Or Value Trap? [View article]
    Comany announces 33% increase in dividend, but more importantly it is reducing the pension contribution from $21M to $11M. Combined with the announced sale of the property in CA, the thesis continues to play out faster than I expected. All good news.
    May 17 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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