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  • Looking Past JA Solar's Record 2010 Year [View article]
    Everybody is entitled to their own opinion. That's what makes a market. For each person right, there can be another one completely wrong. My advice to you is if you believe whatever forces are manipulating certain stocks, just avoid those names. Many forces can affect a stock in the short term. Generally in the longer term stocks will trend with earnings. History is proof. If you do not believe stocks trend with earnings in the longer run, then you shouldn't bother owning low valuation stocks that you feel are being manipulated.
    Mar 18 01:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How China Sunergy's Strategic Shift Will Affect Forward Earnings [View article]
    beststockpicker,

    I'll give you some advice and won't comment beyond this: don't turn the comments section into a message board.

    You have made your point very clear and quite frankly you will see how flawed your analysis is once csun guides beyond the good Q4 2010 they should report. In one comment you note polysilicon prices surging above 100/kg benefitting another stock, but then continue to believe it has no affect on csun when in the past spot market spreads have killed csun's earnings. Most of your assumptions are backwards looking, and by pointing out cash levels without pairing it with debt as boomer noted only shows how one dimensional your arguments are.
    Mar 3 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding California's Solar Equation [View article]
    When comparing costs for electricity especially across various competing formats, it is best to use LCOE as I described above. The cost per watt varies greatly between coal, oil, natural gas, hydro, nuclear, wind, solar, etc. Some have higher fixed costs but little operational costs, such as solar. Others have low fixed costs but higher operating costs due to constant fuel consumption. LCOE is the best method of comparing costs because it simply gives the cost of electricity over a period of time usually the expected operating lifespan of the power plant.

    The point of this article was simply to show what utilities are willing to pay for electricity of various forms in California. Specifically, it is to show renewable energy particularly solar PV has reached a cost point directly comparable to natural gas. It would take much longer to describe the situation in other parts of the world because there are so many varying factors. As noted in a reader comment, most of Hawaii's electricity is from power generated from imported oil and thus is much higher cost than natural gas plants in California. That is also why retail electricity rates in Hawaii are also significantly higher in nearly all other parts of the USA.

    There are also many other factors which are not discussed in great detail in this article. Some examples include as also mentioned in a reader comment, solar power is distributed power generation. This mean it can be built where it is needed, often saving on distribution costs. In addition, solar produces electricity during peak hours when electricity rates are generally higher. These factors for example have not been factored into basic calculations above.

    Solar PV is not viable everywhere nor can it replace other electricity power generating sources. In certain regions depending on various factors, solar PV's costs can be economically viable without subsidies and thus be utilized in conjunction with other sources. This critical mass point has at least been reached in California and that is the point of this article.
    Apr 12 10:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Solar Bubble Has Officially Burst - Survivors Will Ultimately Capture More Market Share [View article]
    Non-silicon module conversion costs have roughly 10% labor, 10% utility, 10% depreciation, and 70% raw materials. These percentages are further lowered since polysilicon still makes up 25-30% of a module's unit cost. The process is highly automated and anyone can check out demonstration videos at company websites. Wages haven't been disclosed by if you take companies at their word, it's much higher than "minimal" because operating advanced equipment requires slightly more skill than assembling toys for example.

    As for utility, Chinese companies pay industrial rates up to 75% higher than residential rates, a flip contrast to western countries. One can argue if these usd $0.11-0.12/kwh industrial rates are too low but you might also want to research what polysilicon producers in the US pay for electricity. Take my word for it, it's considerably lower.

    As for depreciation, that's per US GAAP standards the same as any US public company.

    If anyone wants to really know why China is so efficient, dig deeper into its pv raw materials supply chain vs any US/Japanese/Western peer. A superior raw materials supply chain is simply the key reason why its manufacturing base is far more efficient than most other countries.
    Apr 7 11:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ramifications Of U.S. Commerce Department's Solar Anti-Subsidy Decision [View article]
    I have tried to make a point of not replying to comments in my articles but on this issue and especially when facts are portrayed inaccurately I have to take exception.

    Buffett's solar farm has a ppa of $0.15/kwh for 25 years. That is not 3-5x market rates in California. If you live there you would know rates average around $0.12/kwh but can go much higher during peak hours. Because solar power is generated mostly during peak hours, comparing costs to average rates can be misleading.

    As FSLR has shown, solar can already be cost effective domestically. My argument was not to support Chinese solar companies because if it could be done within the US at a cost effective level, of course that's best for Americans. My argument was to show a large portion of the value chain does not go to Chinese companies. Chinese solar companies are simply more efficient manufacturers due to logistics, vertical and horizontal integration - steps many US manufacturers tend to overlook witnessed by SPWR's horrid supply chain of yesteryear which transversed across 4-5 different countries. As history has already PROVEN, solar industry trade between the US and China has been to the advantage of the US. Any non-market disruptive influences may penalize US solar industries which have effectively competed with global and Chinese counterparts prior.

    Whether the US wants a major role in the solar industry is up to us Americans. It's clear solar installations has expanded by large degrees in all parts of the world including China. By politicizing the issue even with token tariffs, the US would only marginalize its already successful solar companies on the world stage. In the long term it would only mean the US becoming another laggard in another booming industry.
    Mar 23 05:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trina Solar's Trading Activity May Mark an Inflection Point [View article]
    It's a sentiment observation no more or no less different than technical obervations traders make. Perhaps you didn't notice but I did differentiate tsl from being a potential fraud vs other companies which have been targeted more recently. In any case I've held tsl since 2007 and don't plan to sell in the event it might appreciate due to any perceived "pumping" articles including my own.
    Jul 13 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daqo Tops Earnings Expectations, Faces Pricing Pressure Moving Forward [View article]
    DQ is likely to produce more than 7mw of wafers in Q2. I am assuming like you are a certain portion of produced poly will be used for internal wafers which will either be sold or tolled into cells. In the estimates I made, I am assuming around 8mw of additional internally produced wafers will be tolled. The remaining cells would be purchased.

    As for Q3 and Q4, it's too early to know the exact product mixes other than the vague reference DQ provided. Generally I believe per watt gross margin will be slim in both wafer and module verticals so when I calculate consolidated gross profit, I'm purely looking at gross profit potential at each vertical then adding everything up. However internal production is either consumed or sold should ultimately add up to roughly the same per watt gross profits at each vertical capacity. Based on what management stated, the blend between tolled/purchased cells might be around 50/50 ratio. As I noted, I think Q3/Q4 EPS will fall roughly in the .55-.65 range assuming 50/kg poly asps.

    No idea on their second plant in Xinjiang. They just started construction so it's way too early to estimate anything. DQ's general guidance is better than anything I can guess at. I'm guessing the ultimate capacity will be similar to their first plant however at around 4400mt once at full utilization.
    Jun 15 05:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • LDK Solar's Rising Sun [View article]
    Read all my articles regarding LDK if you want my position. I have detailed my views in full. Of course, they are just my opinions and interpretations. I'm sure there will be many who will continue to take opposing views so I'm not going to try to convince anyone otherwise. If you really read what I wrote carefully, you will find the answer to all your questions. From the content of your comments, I believe you have already made up your mind however.
    Jun 13 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Sunergy's Q4 Earnings: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly [View article]
    Credit Suisse holds CSUN shares because they underwrote their convertible bond offering in 2008. Almost 4.5m shares were issued and loaned to Credit Suisse in order to allow bond purchases to short shares as a hedge. Their real net exposure is probably closer to 1.5m shares based on the 6m shares you referenced.

    You are entitled to your own views about the company. It's my impression that your views are not objective and bias since you choose to look at the potential positives without weighing the related negatives. Looking solely at cash position without considering debt is a good example of one dimensional opinions.
    Mar 31 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Renesola Focuses on Scale and Efficiency After a Record Year [View article]
    In fact I assumed 350mw of internal wafer production which is even above the numbers you quoted. I accounted for non-internal produced cell module production as cell tolling agreements. You should be able to tell because the unit cost is well below the cost of purchasing cells in the open market and apply module processing costs. Of course they could sell more wafers and buy cells instead, but the gross profit impact would be similar despite higher stated revenues. You do agree that 350mw is full utilization or even above, correct?
    Mar 31 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • LDK Solar's Continued Path Towards Normalization [View article]
    On January 10, 2011 LDK raised its Q4 earnings projections. In light of the news, I am adjusting my earnings projections accordingly. As usual I am not speculating beyond information the company itself has provided. Based on LDK's prior guidance trends, it's likely that they will come in at the high end of even updated guidance. As a result, I now estimate their Q4 eps to be around 1.10 excluding any government grants and/or foreign exchange adjustments. Given the euro fell slightly over 2% vs the usd while the rmb appreciated about 1.5% vs the usd, foreign currency adjustments for LDK in Q4 should be rather muted. The company may still continue to receive small government grants so the actual eps may come in slightly higher.
    Jan 18 10:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • LDK Solar: Q2 Review, Q3 at a Glance [View article]
    Given LDK raised shipment and revenue guidance, I have revised my estimates for Q3 to be around .68 in US GAAP EPS. This reflects slightly higher shipments, a marginal wafer asp increase of .01/watt, and currency gains due to the euro appreciation vs the rmb combined with the rmb appreciation vs the usd. Each .01/watt increase in wafer asps will increase earnings by .03 in EPS.
    Nov 5 05:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Preview For Canadian Solar's Q1 2012 After A Relatively Successful 2011 [View article]
    There was a editing glitch. The last paragraph should have been the first.
    May 9 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renesola's Prospects Remain Cloudy Despite A Well Executed 2011 Fiscal Year [View article]
    There was a editing glitch. The last paragraph should have been the first paragraph.
    May 9 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perfect World Announces A $2.00 Per Share Dividend On Record Q4 2011 Earnings [View article]
    I can't and won't comment on how the market values any company at any given point in time. As I mentioned, I have discussed PWRD in previous articles so please refer to that. As for the price adjustment ex-dividend, that always occurs - stocks drop by the same amount as the dividend amount. You can research dividend terminology to understand how it's done.

    While management has stated they do not look at its share price, they have proactively taken steps they believe are in the best interest of shareholders. In the past three years, they have repurchased almost 13m shares, reducing the share count from around 60m to 47m. Of course recently they did a $95m dividend payout. Had they not bought back any shares in the past, this payout would have been closer to 1.50/share instead of 2.00/share. They indicated that annual dividends would repeat and be dependent on the company's earnings. Thus if earnings remain stable and dividends repeat, holding PWRD stock would yield about a 12-14% return, regardless of how its actual share price performs.

    Lastly to answer your question, the company bought a building about 4 years ago. It's a fixed asset that will likely be more or less neutral towards earnings since it's unlikely to be sold. In other words it's more a capital investment than the way you described it being more an expense.
    Apr 5 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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