Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Investing On The Rise  

View Investing On The Rise's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Buckle Up: Qiwi Could Be Taking Off Pretty Soon [View article]
    On the long run it still looks fine to me, but short term I don't hold any great expectations.
    Dec 7, 2014. 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buckle Up: Qiwi Could Be Taking Off Pretty Soon [View article]
    I added more Qiwi on the dip and no regrets so far. Looking forward to Q3 earnings on November 11th.
    Nov 2, 2014. 08:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buckle Up: Qiwi Could Be Taking Off Pretty Soon [View article]
    I think governmental regulations in digital payment is a real risk that should be considered carefully. Interestingly, the last time Qiwi bottomed out in 2014 was end of April when the regulation debate was also very hot. Since then Qiwi gained 70% within a month. There's no guarantee for similar behavior this time, but it wouldn't surprise me if we have a rebound within a month when panic has settled and the next earnings announcement is out.
    Although Qiwi may be hurt by any new laws pertaining digital payment, I don't think we'll see their business model collapse as a result of that. There is still going to be a real and strong demand for digital payment solutions in Russia.
    Oct 27, 2014. 05:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buckle Up: Qiwi Could Be Taking Off Pretty Soon [View article]
    Hi Brock Hai. I remain bullish on Qiwi long term. I expect their Q3 earnings to stay in line with previous good results, as I still consider Qiwi to be a great performer in a growing market. Although the Russian economy is suffering and things may get worse, I consider digital payment to be(come) a commodity-like service which will be in (increasing) demand across any economic cycles.
    It's impossible to say when Qiwi will rebound as this is depending on investor sentiment. I assume the announcement of Q3 earnings will likely offer some momentum, but a rebound into +40 USD will require an improvement of the Ukraine situation (short term) or continued strong earnings (long term).

    IMHO, Qiwi is a lottery ticket in the short term but a strong bet long term. Being myself a long term, fundamental investor I'm inclined to increase my holdings at the current drop.
    Oct 26, 2014. 10:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SouFun: 65% Upside On Great Growth And Far-Fetched Fear [View article]
    Hi waterwreath. Thanks for taking the time to comment on my article. The confusion is caused by my wording: In the latest annual report Soufun mentions Shenzhen as not being a "level 1 city", but this relates more to their amount of business. I shouldn't have used the phrasing "first tier" and "second tier" but stuck with the "level 1" and "level 2" predicates. Sorry for the confusion.

    Quote from the latest annual report: "We have established a strong presence in 11 major cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, which are our level 1 cities, and Shenzhen, Chongqing, Tianjin, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Suzhou and Nanjing, which are our level 2 cities."
    Oct 24, 2014. 06:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buckle Up: Qiwi Could Be Taking Off Pretty Soon [View article]
    Hi 81george, thanks a lot for the update, really appreciate it.
    Jun 20, 2014. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SouFun: 65% Upside On Great Growth And Far-Fetched Fear [View article]
    Hi Alex, thanks for the kind words. Hope your investment works out well for you!
    Jun 18, 2014. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SouFun: 65% Upside On Great Growth And Far-Fetched Fear [View article]
    Hi SimpleData, thanks for sharing the link. Yes, China seems to be in for a very tough 2014 which will not benefit SFUN short term. I assume it's likely that you're not loosing out by waiting some time before adding and you may very well be able to find better investments for the next couple of months. As for lazy investors (as myself) I think SFUN is currently a nice place to park your money and go outside and enjoy the summer (and possibly the winter too) ;-)
    Jun 18, 2014. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SouFun: 65% Upside On Great Growth And Far-Fetched Fear [View article]
    Main takeaways from SFUN on yesterday's call:

    As opposed to previous downturns in the Chinese real estate market, this time SFUN will be negatively impacted.
    SFUN believe the current downturn will last complete 2014 (and not improve in Q4 as stated previously this year).
    "Potentially" we'll see a lowering of the 2014 outlook on next earnings call (due August).

    Additionally, Financial Services are currently being developed and tested but will not add materially to 2014 revenue.

    On the positive side SFUN continue to see strong growth in the number of mobile users. They assess to have a very big lead to the competition on mobile devices, and they expect this to be very important in the long run.
    Also, there are currently actual transactions being made in the Financial Services segment in Shanghai and Beijing. Based on the experience in these areas SFUN will expand Financial Services to play a "fundamental and major role in the future business".

    The main focus now is on three things:
    Further enhancement of their mobile and PC platform to provide increased value to clients.
    Move business from information related to a transaction related business (in order to increase profit).
    Develop and integrate financial services in their entire platform.

    My view on this is that short term there's not much sign of anything being able to lift the current stock price. Probably we may even see further declines as investor sentiment is hit by further bad news from the Chinese real estate market.
    Long term however, I still have faith that SFUN is very well positioned to maintain the strong growth seen in previous years. I think historically they have shown great skill in terms of developing their business strategy (as I deducted from my revenue chart in the article), and clearly that's the only way to survive and even lead the monetization of an underlying business which continuously expands and changes and is highly impacted by technological development.
    Jun 18, 2014. 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buckle Up: Qiwi Could Be Taking Off Pretty Soon [View article]
    Hi 81george, thanks for the update. The amount of new shares (app. 2M) is evident from the SEC filing (http://bit.ly/1nOUxro), but I agree that the way it's worded makes a good basis for misunderstandings.

    Great move on the shorting at 46/47, congrats on a fast profit!
    Jun 18, 2014. 05:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SouFun: 65% Upside On Great Growth And Far-Fetched Fear [View article]
    Hi depueman, very interesting review from GS, thanks for sharing.
    Jun 15, 2014. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SouFun: 65% Upside On Great Growth And Far-Fetched Fear [View article]
    Hi gg117. Sounds like a reasonable plan to me. I would dare to say that with the current P/E just above 12 the stock of SFUN has now priced in no less than a big earnings disaster scenario. Potential downside vs. upside looks very attractive IMO even considering the latest statements coming from DB.
    Jun 15, 2014. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SouFun: 65% Upside On Great Growth And Far-Fetched Fear [View article]
    It's sinking hard today and I guess you're right, it's not going to recover tomorrow. Still curious to see the effect on SFUN earnings, though. The effect on the stock price is quite obvious to everyone ;-)
    Jun 12, 2014. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SouFun: 65% Upside On Great Growth And Far-Fetched Fear [View article]
    Thanks depueman, I'll take a closer look at the forecasts.
    They're really getting hammered today! Down more than 17% so far. Must be under a lot of pressure to go with the 40% discount on listing services, so it seems there is indeed a battle on pricing going on, which is definitely not good for business.
    Jun 12, 2014. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SouFun: 65% Upside On Great Growth And Far-Fetched Fear [View article]
    Sorry, the EPS of SFUN 2014Q1 was USD 0.10 and not 0.07 as mentioned above (0.07 was 2013Q1). So the 2014Q1 EPS would then be factor 1:5 between LEJU and SFUN, in favor of SFUN.
    Jun 12, 2014. 06:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
45 Comments
22 Likes