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  • Dave And Buster's: Worth Your Attention [View article]
    You can't hardly argue that a business strategy driving >10% same-store sales growth and unit volumes >$10mm, while new locations generate 50% cash-on-cash returns, is a "failure". Clearly both their sports bar and arcade concepts are relevant and resonating with guests...

    This is the fastest growing of any casual dining concept, and it's margins are structurally superior, far above peers. It should be trading at a meaningful premium to the likes of BJRI/BWLD - instead, it trades roughly inline with the group.
    Jul 1, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dave & Buster's Has A Bright Future Ahead [View article]
    Take a look at how BWLD stacks up versus PLAY on AUVs/margins/new store CoC returns (PLAY investor presentation - see slides 13-17): http://bit.ly/1IiDWDE

    Granted, BWLD has been a big underperformer and its valuation is undemanding here... but PLAY still offers the better risk-adjusted-return given its growth profile and defensiveness against wage/food inflation that is posing a major headwind to BWLD and other restaurant operators.
    Jun 16, 2015. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dave & Buster's: Same Story, Higher Price [View article]
    Another huge preannounce.. 1Q SSS +10% (vs Street at ~6%)
    May 26, 2015. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dave & Buster's: Good Business, Great Growth Story, Massive Upside (+50%) [View article]
    Another huge preannounce.. 1Q SSS +10%
    May 26, 2015. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sotheby's: Going Once, Going Twice, Going... Down [View article]
    Calling the art market's imminent collapse is the same as trying to call the equity markets. The art market is not in a bubble, but it is cyclical and would be susceptible to a macro shock or rapid drop in asset prices broadly, the same way equity markets would be. The fact is that the art market continues to experience strong growth, and calling the top is the same as trying to call the top in stock markets... good luck.

    Also, while I have no qualms with your choosing not to play, as this stock is high beta, I think you're playing with fire trying to short this. Short interest is already elevated, the Spring auction season has been terrific, and capital returns are likely imminent as the new CEO firms up his strategic plan and identifies excess capital on the balance sheet. Not to mention the potential for a monetization of its highly valuable real estate in Manhattan and London. Finally, margins improved in the the first quarter for the first time in years. All taken together, the picture hasn't looked better for Sotheby's in as long as I've covered the name..
    May 21, 2015. 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Service Corporation International's Fuzzy Math [View article]
    Most companies provide Adjusted Net Income or Adjusted EBITDA metrics to give investors a better indication as to the "normalized" earnings power of the business. As SCI is highly FCF generative, it also provides Adjusted FCF, for the same reasons.

    As you can see from your exhibit, these one-time item adjustments were very small in 2012. In 2013 and 2014, there were more adjustments do to the large acquisition of Stewart. It is completely appropriate to adjust out these one-time items to give investors a better sense as to the normalized FCF potential of the business.
    May 1, 2015. 03:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dave & Buster's: Same Story, Higher Price [View article]
    On P/E it trades at 30x Street's 2016 #'s.. but FCF and EBITDA multiples are the better metrics to use for this business. At 8x Adj EBITDA and 10x FCF, PLAY is still a great value, and trades at a meaningful discount to other casual dining stocks.
    Apr 15, 2015. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dave & Buster's: Same Story, Higher Price [View article]
    Thanks Dallas- still very much agree with your bull thesis..

    wolf trader- I think you're going to be waiting a long time (forever?) to see this back at $20. I'd love the opportunity to buy more stock cheaper, but I don't think it's going to happen given the business momentum and consumer tailwinds these guys have going for them..

    They may be reinvesting their free cash flow in new locations, but I'm very glad to see this continue so long as they're generating >40% cash-on-cash returns on new stores.

    ..and it still trades at a BIG discount to casual dining peers (BWLD/BJRI/etc)
    Apr 13, 2015. 07:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • International Speedway: Q1 Earnings Good, But Not That Good [View article]
    TRK has more current yield, but as you point out, the capex profiles of these two are very different (TRK under-investing in its assets) and TRK has NOLs which have shielded tax but are about to run out. If you adjust for these two items ISCA has more yield, even as it has no net debt, versus TRK with ~2x of leverage.

    Street is at $216mm of EBITDA for 2016.. add $23mm of gaming cash flow = $240mm of "Cash" EBITDA. So EV/EBITDA of a little over 7x. TRK trades at almost 9x.

    P/E isn't a good way to compare these two, given vastly different D&A and financial leverage.

    In any case, we can argue about where this should trade, but I think its attractively valued here even after the move, given that the stock has essentially gone nowhere for for over two years and there's strong evidence the business is turning a corner. In addition to the relative value case I lay out above vs TRK..

    Thanks for the response.
    Apr 8, 2015. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • International Speedway: Q1 Earnings Good, But Not That Good [View article]
    Mgmt commented that all races YTD are up in attendance and ticket price- so it's not just Daytona..

    Stock trades at big discount to TRK, and NASCAR's core consumer is better off than they have been in ~7 years - and better able to travel to the races given lower gas prices.

    So think there's pretty good rationale for this move higher..
    Apr 8, 2015. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NASCAR's Misunderstood Decline Presents Asymmetric Long Opportunity In Speedway Motorsports [View article]
    I agree with many of your perspectives on NASCAR assets, but why TRK and not ISCA?

    ISCA trades much cheaper, has higher quality assets, and is holding up better from an admissions growth perspective. After they finish the Daytona Rising project this year, ISCA is going to be throwing off a lot of free cash..
    Mar 12, 2015. 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Dave & Buster's Entertainment Secondary Offering [View article]
    Totally agree, great buying opportunity. Thanks for the update!
    Feb 3, 2015. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dave & Buster's: Not Just A Cap-Ex Driven Growth Story [View article]
    PLAY preannounces >10% same-store sales growth in 4Q, more than doubling its guidance for 4-5%. Huge beats on sales and EBITDA too.

    The secondary offering will increase the float/liquidity and remove the deal overhang..
    Feb 2, 2015. 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dave & Buster's: Good Business, Great Growth Story, Massive Upside (+50%) [View article]
    PLAY preannounces >10% same-store sales growth in 4Q, more than doubling its guidance for 4-5%. Huge beats on sales and EBITDA too.

    The secondary offering will increase the float/liquidity and remove the deal overhang.
    Feb 2, 2015. 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dave & Buster's: Not Just A Cap-Ex Driven Growth Story [View article]
    The stock has been volatile over the past week, with no fundamental driver. I find the stock exceptionally attractive here when compared to other casual dining stocks. Especially when considering the easy weather comp and great setup into 4Q earnings..
    Jan 22, 2015. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
35 Comments
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