Seeking Alpha

Investor RockieK's  Instablog

Investor RockieK
Send Message
Professionally licensed but commenting as an anonymous individual investor for informational and entertainment purposes only. Experienced in the industry since 1997 with an education in finance and economics. Prior to financial services industry, was a veteran of the armed services experienced... More
View Investor RockieK's Instablogs on:
  • Why I Got Off Margin - 6 More Charts.

    Last Friday I posted a quick chart with a comment that I had taken some actions to get off margin, and that I was starting to put on some hedges on my long positions. My opinion has not changed, and I wanted to share a little more. The chart I posted last Friday was of the Dow Jones Industrials adjusted for the traded weighted value of the U.S. Dollar. I agree that one chart is not compelling, so here is the same chart, updated to today, along with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite.

    (Compliments of Stockcharts.com)

    As you can see, all three are consistent in their demonstrated down trend and death crosses of the 50DMA to 200DMA.

    Big Deal. The Markets are hitting new highs. There is practically no resistance left, and no reason to sell. But, is it rational? Take a look at these three charts.

    These are Advance/Declines on the three major market centers, NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ. Notice how the center shaded area, corresponding to mean ratio of advances to decliners plus two standard deviations. I use these as daily overbought/oversold indicators. In all three, the mean has broken to record highs and the lower standard deviation band is press close to zero on the negative side. To me, this is overly optimistic.

    I'm not saying that anyone should be selling, and please note that I have not made any claims to closing out long positions (other than what is needed to pay my margin debit) and I am not advocating going net short. Do your own thing, but as for me. I'm hedgin!!

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: SPY, QQQ, DIA
    Nov 03 12:29 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Why I Got Off Margin In One Chart.

    I'm not going to gripe about the markets going up. It's nice to see positions gain in my portfolio. But, just watching the prices on the ticker and the bottom line on the portfolio has gotten me into trouble time and again. (Thinking back to 2007/8 and 2000/1 comes to mind.)

    Here's one chart that explains why I'm now off margin and putting on some speculative hedges. I also think that its a pretty good time to sell some short term calls on my positions.

    (click to enlarge)

    This chart (compliments of stockcharts.com) compares the relative value of the Dow Jones Industrials to the trade weighted value of the U.S. Dollar.

    By this measure, no, we are not hitting all time highs. in fact, we are in a modest down trend with a recent death cross, and have bounced off short term resistance at the 50DMA.

    Sooooo

    Where do we go from here?

    Home. It's the weekend. Enjoy.

    Oct 31 4:45 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Chinese Destroyer Haikou Boards U.S. Coast Guard Cutter

    It looks like things are starting to get serious again in the international battle against piracy. During ongoing international exercised held in the waters off Hawaii, China has partnered with the United States and 20 other nations to hone their skills and foster international naval cooperation. As reported by the Associated Press:

    China has been boarding ships looking for mock pirates and contraband as it joins the world's largest maritime exercises for the first time.

    On Wednesday, Chinese sailors from the destroyer Haikou boarded the Coast Guard cutter Waesche for a drill checking cargo as part of Rim of the Pacific exercises the U.S. is hosting in Hawaii waters this month. The Americans played the role of a merchant ship carrying valuable paintings.

    Coast Guard Lt. Gregory Ostrov, exercise safety officer for the drill, said the Chinese sailors were eager to cooperate and demonstrate their proficiency as mariners.

    This cooperation is more than just necessary, it is timely, since the South China Sea has become a haven for pirate activity since the beginning of the year. Thus far, there have been more pirate attacks in the South China Sea and Malacca Straits between Singapore and Indonesia than any other geographic region.

    This past Tuesday, the tanker MT Oriental Glory was hijacked and drained of it's gas oil cargo before being set adrift. Noel Choong, head of the International Maritime Bureau's Kuala Lumpur-based Piracy Reporting Centre said "This is the ninth attack in these waters recently… It's a big concern."

    Earlier this month, pirates hijacked the tanker Moresby 9:

    The Honduras-flagged Moresby 9 was boarded by nine pirates armed with machetes and pistols on 4 July in Indonesian waters near the Anambas Islands in the South China Sea. The crew were tied up and locked in the engine control room, apart from the chief officer who was forced to navigate the vessel.

    The Moresby 9 was then met by a second vessel, an orange tanker of around 3,000 gt, and 2,118 tonnes of MGO transferred onto the second tanker in an operation that lasted about six hours. The pirates left stealing personal belongings and communication equipment, and the crew were unharmed.

    It should be noted that the Moresby 9 is owned by the same company that owns Naniwa Maru No. 1 , 3,238 gt and Ai Maru, 1,007 gt which were boarded on 22 April 2014 and 14 June 2014 respectively. Obviously these attacks are being pre planned and some have suggested there is much more behind the incidents that they typical smash and grab attacks or ransoming tactics commonly used by pirates off the African coasts.

    Delex Systems consultant James Bridger puts it this way, "The common modus operandi used by these pirates indicates that the attacks are likely the work of one gang that's receiving information and paychecks from a crime syndicate with roots in Indonesia and ties to Singapore. Since no pirate, nor anyone from this alleged crime syndicate, has been caught, not much is actually known about them." He believes that the pirates are most likely from Indonesia and have intelligence contacts in Singapore.

    Obviously, this makes things more risky for any tanker traversing the straights. Share holders of tanker transports like Frontline (NYSE:FRO), Knightsbridge (NASDAQ:VLCCF), Nordic American (NYSE:NAT), Scorpio (SBNA), and Teekay (NYSE:TNK) should take note.

    Jul 18 2:22 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • Just for fun. First ever tanker - by the Nobel Brothers. http://bit.ly/1CN7wTO $TNK $NNA
    3 days ago
  • Singapore likely to exceed record 32.58m teu in intermodal throughput this year. second only to Shanghai's estimated 34.8 to 35.4m teu
    3 days ago
  • Have you noticed the plethora of people walking around with their $GPRO head cams, chest cams, cams on poles posts and mounts of all kinds?
    3 days ago
More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.