The Market's Going Higher Regardless Of The Election [View article]
Here's my logic:
If the Obama wins, the Dems have the Senate, and the Rep. have the House, it will be a disaster for the Repiblicans not to compromise because the country (voters) have just said "go ahead with Obama's plan" through the vote. If the Republicans still stone wall action, they will destroy the party b/c people will blame them, not the Dems. The Republicans could choice to commit suicide and take this stonewall tactic (certainly a chance this happens), but I think that if they are thinking long-term as a party, they need to get shit done and work with the Dems.
Also, the whole election for the Republicans is 'anything but Obama" or "get Obama out of the office". If he's re-elected, this stance is mute because he'll be out of the office in 4 years anyway. Therefore, it would behoove the Rep. to make progress for the country.
But, this certainly is not "in the bag" and I could be very wrong.
I also totally agree with you that if Romney wins he can;t actually repeal Obamacare b/c they need 60 votes. He'll try to de-fund parts he doesn't like and keep what he likes.
The Market's Going Higher Regardless Of The Election [View article]
Hi whidbey,
My thought process is built on homework and analysis, not hope. I make an effort to predict the most likely outcome of future events and place my investments accordingly. Of course I cannot be certain of the outcome of Europe and China, but I have to develop an opinion in order to make decisions. Otherwise, I'd just sit on the sidelines and never participate.
I feel as though I can get enough confidence in my outlook / expectations that I am willing to "bet" real money. I really think people can make intelligent assessments of future outcomes without relying just on hope.
The Market's Going Higher Regardless Of The Election [View article]
No kidding my article is just an opinion. Unless I am Moses from the Mountain Tops, this is just one man's opinion. Just like your comments are an opinion.
Why I'll Never Short Salesforce.com [View article]
Interesting point. I can see it as a negative data point for corporate spending (CRM's primary customers). IBM is also big in data analytics and such, which Salesforce has moves into with Radian6 and other recent acquisitions.
Amazingly though, the stock is only down 1% right now.
Why I'll Never Short Salesforce.com [View article]
You are taking the right approach and staying disciplined. Just as long as you keep the "risk" under control and don't make it a huge position. I am also just better at picking longs, so I am less eager to short in general.
The Market's Going Higher Regardless Of The Election [View article]
Good morning, carlson73:
I think it is hard to separate what this market is more tied to right now, QE-infinity or improving fundamentals. I think both are major forces, but I really like what I see in the U.S. automotive and housing industries. These elements should provide a meaningful foundation for solid growth in 2013 - but this will be partially offset by some of the fiscal cliff happening. (I think the extension of the payroll tax will end, taking taxes up for the average person about $1,000 next year).
I am not a fan of QE because I think it distorts the market, but now we are down this road, we need to stay on it. The chance to avoid this was accepting a deep, deep recession back in 2009. Let the economy crumble for a year or so, but we'd be in a healthier position than we are now. But since the Fed has supported the market and financial system, they are in for the long-haul. Under this lens, I do think QE is having a positive impact by lowering mortgage rates to help the housing market by refinancing.
Long winded answer, but I think the U.S. and global fundamentals will begin to have a larger and larger impact on the market in 2013, which will support money flowing back to stocks from bonds. This is a key point I should have made in the article. This simple money flow will push stocks higher. I think too many people are hising out in bonds and are very under-exposed to equities.
The Market's Going Higher Regardless Of The Election [View article]
If the Obama wins, the Dems have the Senate, and the Rep. have the House, it will be a disaster for the Repiblicans not to compromise because the country (voters) have just said "go ahead with Obama's plan" through the vote. If the Republicans still stone wall action, they will destroy the party b/c people will blame them, not the Dems. The Republicans could choice to commit suicide and take this stonewall tactic (certainly a chance this happens), but I think that if they are thinking long-term as a party, they need to get shit done and work with the Dems.
Also, the whole election for the Republicans is 'anything but Obama" or "get Obama out of the office". If he's re-elected, this stance is mute because he'll be out of the office in 4 years anyway. Therefore, it would behoove the Rep. to make progress for the country.
But, this certainly is not "in the bag" and I could be very wrong.
I also totally agree with you that if Romney wins he can;t actually repeal Obamacare b/c they need 60 votes. He'll try to de-fund parts he doesn't like and keep what he likes.
The Market's Going Higher Regardless Of The Election [View article]
My thought process is built on homework and analysis, not hope. I make an effort to predict the most likely outcome of future events and place my investments accordingly. Of course I cannot be certain of the outcome of Europe and China, but I have to develop an opinion in order to make decisions. Otherwise, I'd just sit on the sidelines and never participate.
I feel as though I can get enough confidence in my outlook / expectations that I am willing to "bet" real money. I really think people can make intelligent assessments of future outcomes without relying just on hope.
What gets you willing to invest?
The Market's Going Higher Regardless Of The Election [View article]
I am not sure what you are getting at.
Why I'll Never Short Salesforce.com [View article]
Why Chipotle Is My Biggest Position [View article]
Yeah, high levels of institutional ownership can certainly create volatility. Especially when they all panic together (or euphoria).
Why I'll Never Short Salesforce.com [View article]
Why I'll Never Short Salesforce.com [View article]
Why I'll Never Short Salesforce.com [View article]
http://on.ft.com/T0udw5
I like the Titanic analogy!
Why I'll Never Short Salesforce.com [View article]
Why I'll Never Short Salesforce.com [View article]
-IM
Why I'll Never Short Salesforce.com [View article]
Seriously, the WDAY valuation is outrageous (my favorite word these days).
-IM
Why I'll Never Short Salesforce.com [View article]
Amazingly though, the stock is only down 1% right now.
Why I'll Never Short Salesforce.com [View article]
Why I'll Never Short Salesforce.com [View article]
The Market's Going Higher Regardless Of The Election [View article]
I think it is hard to separate what this market is more tied to right now, QE-infinity or improving fundamentals. I think both are major forces, but I really like what I see in the U.S. automotive and housing industries. These elements should provide a meaningful foundation for solid growth in 2013 - but this will be partially offset by some of the fiscal cliff happening. (I think the extension of the payroll tax will end, taking taxes up for the average person about $1,000 next year).
I am not a fan of QE because I think it distorts the market, but now we are down this road, we need to stay on it. The chance to avoid this was accepting a deep, deep recession back in 2009. Let the economy crumble for a year or so, but we'd be in a healthier position than we are now. But since the Fed has supported the market and financial system, they are in for the long-haul. Under this lens, I do think QE is having a positive impact by lowering mortgage rates to help the housing market by refinancing.
Long winded answer, but I think the U.S. and global fundamentals will begin to have a larger and larger impact on the market in 2013, which will support money flowing back to stocks from bonds. This is a key point I should have made in the article. This simple money flow will push stocks higher. I think too many people are hising out in bonds and are very under-exposed to equities.
Best,
IM