The Market's Going Higher Regardless Of The Election [View article]
Fair point, talld,
I'm just hoping that people (rational or not) will see that the U.S. economy improving in 2013 (if my assumption are right) and all this political vitriol will fade away. Growth solves a lot of problems!
But, alas, I agree that people are not rational for extended periods of the time.
The Market's Going Higher Regardless Of The Election [View article]
Hi www2280,
Thanks for the comment. You could be right on the softness at CMI right now, but my opinion is that this is largely priced into the stock. I also think that Europe and China will be better than people think in 12 months, so if I am right, the stock will start to reflect this in 1-2 quarters. I am happy to wait in this best-of-breed company.
The Market's Going Higher Regardless Of The Election [View article]
I am not going to get dragged into a political debate, but my response is this: The S&P 500 has been up 81% since Obama took office on 1/20/2009. That doesn't seem too anti-business.
The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
Hi Cardsany1,
Let me try to explain my point a different way and see if it makes sense and if you agree.
The major point is that with so many shares available to trade, the stock loses its scarcity value. (I misspelled it "scarity" in the article). Part of what makes assets value is fact that not everyone can own a part of it. Peices of Art can becomes so valuable because there very few originals of the work, meaning that any demand for the asset drives up the price based on simple supply/demand. If Edvard Munch had painted 1,000 versions of "The Scream" it would be a lot less valuable than the 4 he did paint. So the "enterprise value" of those paintings is excessively high.
I argue that the EV of Facebook is over-valued currently because there 1.167 billion more Facebook "paintings" are about to hit the market, driving down it's value. You could argue that the market "knows this", but I contend that it doesn't comprehend the magnitude of the supply coming to market. Therefore, the current P/E will compress as this scarcity value declines.
The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
The analysis does remove Mark Zuckerberg's shares and the RSU's that FB is holding back. Happily, FB laid this out quite nicely and clearly in the SEC filing referenced.
But I should have been more specific in the article to clarify the numbers.
The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
Hi waajid21,
Thanks for the heads up! lot2 also caught that error, and I made some comments to lot2 that gives the updated analysis. You should scroll up to see it.
I think the mistake comes from the Class B shares not being tradeable.
The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
Good morning lot2,
Very good question, and I went back to look at this. I think you are correct based on the SEC filing, in the Additional Shares Information section. It says there are 692 million shares available to trade:
Using the new 692 million as the starting point, the analysis is even more scary. With the 1.167 billion shares coming available to trade through Dec. 31, 2012, it means that float will increase 169% cumulatively over this time period vs. the 89% increase from the initial analysis. Does this make sense to you?
The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
Dear SMJTRUST,
Thank you for you helpful suggestion that I get a life. I hadn't thought about that, and I'm sure I will be a better investor and happier human being due to you kind words of advice.
You do sound like someone who's lost their shirt on this stock. Too bad.
The Market's Going Higher Regardless Of The Election [View article]
I'm just hoping that people (rational or not) will see that the U.S. economy improving in 2013 (if my assumption are right) and all this political vitriol will fade away. Growth solves a lot of problems!
But, alas, I agree that people are not rational for extended periods of the time.
The Market's Going Higher Regardless Of The Election [View article]
Thanks for the comment. You could be right on the softness at CMI right now, but my opinion is that this is largely priced into the stock. I also think that Europe and China will be better than people think in 12 months, so if I am right, the stock will start to reflect this in 1-2 quarters. I am happy to wait in this best-of-breed company.
Thanks,
IM
The Market's Going Higher Regardless Of The Election [View article]
The Market's Going Higher Regardless Of The Election [View article]
Here the chart:
http://bit.ly/QrFMaY
The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
Let me try to explain my point a different way and see if it makes sense and if you agree.
The major point is that with so many shares available to trade, the stock loses its scarcity value. (I misspelled it "scarity" in the article). Part of what makes assets value is fact that not everyone can own a part of it. Peices of Art can becomes so valuable because there very few originals of the work, meaning that any demand for the asset drives up the price based on simple supply/demand. If Edvard Munch had painted 1,000 versions of "The Scream" it would be a lot less valuable than the 4 he did paint. So the "enterprise value" of those paintings is excessively high.
I argue that the EV of Facebook is over-valued currently because there 1.167 billion more Facebook "paintings" are about to hit the market, driving down it's value. You could argue that the market "knows this", but I contend that it doesn't comprehend the magnitude of the supply coming to market. Therefore, the current P/E will compress as this scarcity value declines.
Does this make sense?
The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
I like the plane flying a banner analogy. Good one. And good point.
The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
But I should have been more specific in the article to clarify the numbers.
-IM
The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
Thanks for the heads up! lot2 also caught that error, and I made some comments to lot2 that gives the updated analysis. You should scroll up to see it.
I think the mistake comes from the Class B shares not being tradeable.
Thanks.
-IM
The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
Very good question, and I went back to look at this. I think you are correct based on the SEC filing, in the Additional Shares Information section. It says there are 692 million shares available to trade:
http://1.usa.gov/U3Yagu
My original number came from Yahoo Finance, in the Key Statistics section on the right hand side:
http://yhoo.it/QrtGPl
Using the new 692 million as the starting point, the analysis is even more scary. With the 1.167 billion shares coming available to trade through Dec. 31, 2012, it means that float will increase 169% cumulatively over this time period vs. the 89% increase from the initial analysis. Does this make sense to you?
Good catch.
The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
Thank you for providing that clarification. And you are absolutely correct, Mark's shares are excluded from this analysis.
Best,
IM
The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
Thank you for you helpful suggestion that I get a life. I hadn't thought about that, and I'm sure I will be a better investor and happier human being due to you kind words of advice.
You do sound like someone who's lost their shirt on this stock. Too bad.
The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]