Invisible Hand

Potash Sell-Off Overdone - Citi

Commodity prices soared this year due to the falling dollar, emerging market growth, and hedge funds. When the dollar started rising this reversed the others and it led to where we are today. Corn rose to all time highs this year which fuelled the growth of the ag stocks and the reverse has happened as corn has come off. I agree with your comments that from a fundamental basis this stock is solid , and therefore if you have a three to five year time horizon don't worry this stock will perform. On the other hand, if you have a shorter time horizon or are looking to cash in on previous captial gains, the trend is not going north it's going south. Fundamentals are trumped by the trend in the short run. The reaction to the last earnings numbers is proof to my assertion. Oil goes to 80 before it reaches 150 and potash goes to 158 before it reaches 240.

Potash Sell-Off Overdone - Citi

Hedge funds have a hold of this stock and whip it back and forth based on the direction of oil, gold, and the dollar. Fundamentals don't count right now. I predict another sell off with oil going down to the 80's. I base this off of lower inflationary expectations going forward. China is the big player that could change this picture. If news comes out that China is back on track to levels of 9 to 10 % growth then the commodity bull is back on.

Potash Sell-Off Overdone - Citi

the hedge funds have a hold of this stock and play it with oil and the other commodities. Therefore with commodities stocks selling off so will potash.