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Inzkeeper

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  • What If My Stocks Crash And Burn? Part 2 [View article]
    Hi Ron,
    Throw up a bio and jump on in. I fully expect that just a little summer weakness will take many of my holdings below their current ACB (or purchase price) and I am ready to buy more, averaging down. Yes, it is hard to take advantage of opportunities without cash on hand. I have the most I've ever had sitting around ready to go. Chances are good that I won't be patient enough for the bottom, but I don't need to get the 'best' price as an investor. It was important as a trader.
    Apr 11 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What If My Stocks Crash And Burn? Part 2 [View article]
    Devlin, I agree that it was a good exercise. I implied, but never stated in the article that with this portfolio showing a 34% loss, compared to the 50% thrown at me in the question, that my current portfolio looks like it will hold up substantially better. I could move to an even more 'risk off' portfolio, but I don't see the need. I do see the need for further diversification and better allocation, however I have actually moved from 34 companies to 27 over the past 6 months as I take off trades and focus one what I really want and try to effectively evaluate and do due diligence. Getting to know them better as it were.

    GE Smith wrote in a comment to Part 1 "Inz, re the tension between concentration and diversification, I think individual equities are like our friends - the more time we spend with them, the more we begin to see who we want to spend more time with. In my own portfolios i don't currently have a position over 5%, but over time I'm adding more selectively as I've got to know them better and I can see concentrated positions starting to emerge."

    I also take comfort in the fact that when we suffered dramatic losses, I wasn't the one calling the advisor up and telling him to sell. He, without our knowledge, moved everything to cash and his office closed. Even though I live in the city, there are personal connections and I know of him and his family. Oh well. When we went to move our money to our new advisor, who also was a friend and knew how carefully I managed the household finance, she suggested that instead of using her as an advisor, I consider managing myself and offered suggestions and assistance. We figured there was very little left to lose, and that if, after a year, I wanted to quit, we could transfer the funds to her anyway. That started this amazing journey and I'm so thankful. We have gone from typical unaware family with modest savings spoon fed MPV over the years, to the possibility of being financially independent for generations. I'm so glad we had the opportunity to start from scratch - it just would have been nice if I had starting with an nest egg instead of a pea! ;)

    I'm out on the limb with you! The chances of 90% for me are infinitesimal.
    Apr 11 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What If My Stocks Crash And Burn? Part 2 [View article]
    Tennis Boy, please tell me more. I am very interested. Why do you think BCE makes a good leading indicator?
    Apr 11 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What If My Stocks Crash And Burn? Part 2 [View article]
    "Wal Mart went up, not down."
    According to Google Finance, the closing price Sept 19th, 2008 was $59.70. The closing price on Mar 6, 2009 shows as 48.91. It didn't stay down long though.
    Apr 10 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If My Stocks Crash And Burn? Part 1 [View article]
    Sorry, GE, my answer to your question ended up above in the comment stream.
    Apr 10 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If My Stocks Crash And Burn? Part 1 [View article]
    Dale, can you please be more specific with the question? I think this is all about my risk tolerance level and hopefully getting others to look at theirs now, while the sky is blue.
    Apr 10 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If My Stocks Crash And Burn? Part 2 [View article]
    Sounds like good advice to me too, Charles. When I was trading I would only risk 1% of my portfolio on each trade. Now that it has doubled more than once since, I want to risk only .5% on any trade. That is a completely different strategy than for the ones I consider 'hold forever' stocks like JNJ & MCD, though.
    Apr 10 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If My Stocks Crash And Burn? Part 2 [View article]
    Eddie, that's another impressive set of 2 cents'. You should write Part 3 (or maybe you just did).

    I was joking that I need to run out and buy more of those exact stocks for that exact reason. However, the point does hold. There is a type of company that will hold up under more pressure than others. For example, Enbridge and Inter Pipeline are both pipelines. Their 'toll bridge' nature does well in most market conditions. Enbridge is a much larger company more widely held, especially institutionally, and to me that would explain the majority of the almost double (but still small comparatively) loss in IPL. I don't think either company was in trouble at the time. I could say the same about H&R REIT vs RioCan. This is one of the reasons I have been targeting biggest and best for purchase. Not that I won't hold the others too, just that there is safety in choosing best of breed.

    "This should lead to asking why am I holding these particular companies. The point being that analyzing your portfolio in this way can helpful in deciding if you need to position it such that the recession resistant companies are more sizable positions than the others."

    Thank you, that's the point I've been trying to make and you state it so well. I have been looking at exactly this and not only trimming, but completely eliminating from my portfolio the holdings (like WU and AGU) that I expect will not do well in a correction. Ford was initially bought for a trade back when I was trading, but as I continued to watch and research it, it became a longer term hold as I began to believe in the future success of the company. I do not see this as a buy and hold forever name like MCD, but I don't think the auto industry is about to have issues in the near term, and their 'refresh rate' is still pretty high. It's something I watch closely.

    Thank you for your comments Eddie. They are valuable for not just me, but all enjoying the comment stream.
    Faye
    Apr 10 05:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What If My Stocks Crash And Burn? Part 2 [View article]
    Great website calculator, Balanced, I'm afraid I did it all the hard way. Looked up each price for each stock on Google Finance, plugged it into a spreadsheet and then typed it all out again here. I kept thinking there had to be an easier way. It's not quite the same information I was seeking, but it's an interesting snapshot and easy to vary the time frame. Thanks for sharing it.
    Apr 10 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April Showers Bring... Dividend Growth, Joy And Fun! [View article]
    I completely love this train of thought. My portfolio is not handing out Franklins on a daily basis yet, but at least there is such a thing as a free lunch!
    Faye
    Apr 10 10:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If My Stocks Crash And Burn? Part 1 [View article]
    Hi GE, I have a history of currency biting very hard. We moved to the states (and took all assets) in 1998 at 63c and unexpectedly moved back in 2002 at 91c. Ouch. Turns out that Canadians with clean records, solid references and a letter from a Senator explaining why it is important for the government to have this employee here, is less welcome than illegal aliens. We were denied visas. But such is life. It's great to be back home in the best country in the world...even if it is cold. :)

    Currency is not my strong suit. The two things I am currently doing in regards to currency are.
    1. holding all US holdings in RSP, no reporting of foreign assets, no withholding tax.
    2. I was buying as many US holdings since last fall as I could while the dollar was at par and falling. I have a 'wash' account set up so that if I sell any of my US holdings, the cash remains in a USD money market account. Sadly, the cash dividends are exchanged. IMO, anything around the 10% or less is still a good time to buy USD. Our gov't is not shy about stating that they want, for trade purposes, the dollar NOT to be even. I expect par to be a unusual event. I would like to see half US and half CAD holdings in my portfolio and it is about like that now. Generally my international exposure is through the US holdings. Keep in mind that I don't need the income for 20 years. What do you think the exchange will be in 20 years? I have no clue, but probably less than par, so my purchases now are fine. If the dollar drops when I retire, I will have more income, but it will cost more to go somewhere warm so it doesn't make much difference. If the dollar is high, we will, hopefully, spend more time somewhere warm.
    Apr 10 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What If My Stocks Crash And Burn? Part 1 [View article]
    Smallstep, I haven't read that specific book, but I have realized the same thing. "Diversification is a necessity for the beginner. On the other hand, the really great fortunes were made by concentration."

    However, my goal is not to make a great fortune. My goal is to make a retirement. If I have completed the goal of making a retirement and have a bunch of spare cash at that time, it might be fun to try to make a fortune then. . However, my observations of people who make great fortunes tend to make it, lose it, make lose it, over and over. Some of them learn to quit while they have a fortune, some don't. Maybe I'll just give it away instead.
    Apr 9 11:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April Showers Bring... Dividend Growth, Joy And Fun! [View article]
    Great article Mike. It was a much needed smile today. You and Roberta are a few dividends nearer to Mikeville, Hawaii. Congrats.
    Apr 9 01:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If My Stocks Crash And Burn? Part 1 [View article]
    Mike wrote: "I definitely wouldn't be "comfortable." But I do believe I would be resolute."

    That's where I am aiming to be before the upcoming correction hits. (and there's always a possible upcoming correction. I have no clue when, and I have my doubts it will be this year, but I am expecting summer weakness.) I've been fortunate to have the last few years to determine my approach, goals, and strategy when I couldn't do too much damage to the portfolio's end result. I was a lucky trader and even despite doing ok, learned what I needed to there. Thankfully I'm not still there. I already feel sorry for the TPV people when the correction does come.

    I am currently testing the waters to see if there are any holdings where I wouldn't be resolute and ditching them now, or at an advantageous time in the near future. WU gone, AGU gone. Good companies, but not ones with which I would be resolute. Thanks for the great lead-in to Part 2! But, with an 11 hr shift today I don't think the number crunching required to finish the article will happen, but who knows!
    Apr 9 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If My Stocks Crash And Burn? Part 1 [View article]
    "It is always interesting to see the different approaches to crack this nut....."

    Yes, Uain, I completely agree. I even enjoy discussions where I totally disagree as it makes my brain spin in such interesting ways! Not only do we get different approaches to crack the nut, we also end up with different varieties of nuts (various end goals). We even begin from such various starting lines as well. It sure keeps life interesting!
    Apr 9 12:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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