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  • SMART Technologies Is A Stupid Investment [View article]
    I think the article accurately points out some technology laggard characteristics at this company and obviously it's been a lousy IPO.

    But I'm wondering if new offerings are better, more integrated and internet-friendly. Could these guys be a play on more online learning and collaboration?

    Has anyone evaluated these products lately?
    Apr 16 07:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rubicon Project Fills Out Mini Digital Advertising Sector [View article]
    The problem I have with TRMR is that for management to be "caught with their pants down" so soon after coming public inspires little confidence in them knowing where their business is going. It also burns up all the work done in the IPO marketing process because those investors have given up and are unlikely to come back to this management team.

    And I believe they are still losing money so despite having a great balance sheet it will be deteriorating. Having said that it doesn't mean that management can't execute their way out of this and for the sake of the individuals that are taking positions down here and giving them a second chance I hope they do!
    Apr 10 05:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rubicon Project Fills Out Mini Digital Advertising Sector [View article]
    Tremor TRMR probably suffers to some extent by the failure of other "video advertising" plays like BrightCove (BCOV) and Kit Digital (OTC:KITD).
    Apr 9 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rubicon Project Fills Out Mini Digital Advertising Sector [View article]
    Wow great comments both. I'll have a look at ADTN (I was mostly look at recent IPO names versus the existing market.)

    Also agree that the RUBI platform is buried a little deeper and looking at net versus growth revenues are important. Really should do an IV model on these to tease out "realistic" valuations for the stocks.
    Apr 8 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Busy IPO Calendar Cheatsheet [View article]
    Good summary! So far you're doing pretty well.
    Apr 7 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not 'Crushing' On King Digital Entertainment IPO [View article]
    Well $KING has been a very disappointing IPO so far. The question is do we have a $FB situation where this one will grow to be a success? or not...
    Apr 1 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not 'Crushing' On King Digital Entertainment IPO [View article]
    We're just finishing up our writeup on this one and posting the transcript of the roadshow. Their success has been astounding but it's hard to not think that they are at a peak right now (hence the IPO) and things will be great but just a little less great going forward.

    From all that it's hard to figure what multiples to use for valuation. There was no "target model" slide in the deck although I'm sure institutions are getting some of that guidance in their 1 on 1 meetings.

    Should be a good IPO for sure. It's certainly worth $28 and will probably end up trading at 2x that. Just my guess.
    Mar 25 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List Struggles, More Woes Ahead [View article]
    Angie's list seems to be getting killed somewhat by "free" which is easily implemented by Google and Yelp to name two. It's true their results are not as good in this category but guess what, their volumes mean their results get better every second. ANGI has created a walled garden and a kind of unhappy one at that. You can see by the metrics that people have to be drawn into it, they don't want to go and they don't want to stay once they are in it.

    As long as that remains true the numbers don't matter much.
    Mar 6 03:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marin Software: It's Time To Know The Name [View article]
    Marin Software does indeed seem to be a neglected name in the IPO space which is probably tied to management execution. It is a fairly hot space so if the company performs better the shares should eventually find an uptrend. I wonder how easy/hard the comps are for the next few quarters? A couple more "beat and raise" quarters would change the sentiment on this one for sure.
    Mar 2 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bluebird Bio May Turn Dreams Into Reality [View article]
    Inspiring company story and very cutting edge disease treatment. I liked the roadshow and love what they are doing. However it seems like a very small and still experimental market. As an investor it's harder to get excited about this versus other companies going after larger target markets like cancer for example. All of these require patience and risk tolerance, probably a diversified approach is needed as well like take 2% of your portfolio and buy your five favorite biotech names.
    Mar 2 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill's Dividend Is Too Risky [View article]
    If you like dividends - floating, secure or insecure I'd suggest taking a look at North Atlantic Drilling as well (NADL). Relatively new name, nice yield, I expect IB analyst coverage to come out this week on the name.
    Mar 2 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Pharmaceuticals IPO Could Fly Due To Commercial Success And Near-Profitability [View article]
    I was originally underwhelmed by the management team and story. However by leveraging the expensive R&D and clinical investments of others (partially offset by legal fees) this is probably a pretty high return business model. Seems a little "weasel-y" to me but I suppose there are benefits from competition here. No position now but may add to the IPO Candy Folio.
    Feb 26 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intelsat's Year-End Results Highlight Dependence On Next Generation Epic Satellites [View article]
    Very good article. We may reference it in an upcoming post that includes this company.
    Feb 25 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Watershed Moment For Zillow? [View article]
    This doesn't look anything like a "harvest" year for Zillow or any of their competition. The RE market will probably be okay but not fantastic and these companies are in "take the hill" mode in terms of spending and going for market share. That's not a good combination.

    But investors desperately want to own the "winners" in these new internet categories so some will be accumulating shares in companies like Zillow if they feel they are at least leading the category which will eventually allow them to generate positive cash flow.

    Personally I share the feelings people have about the stock and have been short (no position when this was published or one now.) Right now and at this price I'm neutral but this one can certainly be a short or a long based on execution. My biggest prod on the short side is I am not sure that members and users are very "sticky" over the long term but I'm not sure. So far Yelp has done very well, much better than I expected. Was long that one but sold after what I thought were huge gains, before the last run from $70's to $90's.
    Feb 19 07:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Watershed Moment For Zillow? [View article]
    There is a question mark here. That's what makes Zillow so interesting from a stock perspective. (at least in IMO) My point is that each quarter gives us a snapshot of how the business is developing, especially as indexed by company spending.

    This is a high stakes game and although some question the wisdom of the spending now if they end up as the starting point for real estate search they will be a major winner.

    As I note in the conclusion this isn't a time to be aggressive either way. As to a slow down if the RE market goes south, yeah maybe but then again maybe the shift to online stays in force. Google growth might slow in a recession but it's going to keep gaining share over offline.

    Yes 40x is a high multiple and it applies to what I would call a "bull case" which is what this IV model shows. A "bear case" would lead to a much lower number but I agree I should do one.

    The tug of war seems like it's going to be with us for some time so having these two estimates will help in taking positions.
    Feb 13 01:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment