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  • Insanity, Thy Name Is TerraForm Global [View article]
    After listening to the roadshow I thought it was pretty impressive. I do think that they are underestimating counter-party risk because emerging market governments and utilities have problems of their own, including national defaults in some cases.

    They talk about FX hedging but I don't know the details of how they implement it and at what cost. They make many promises that I can see investors liking. I'll just be watching this one but it looks solid enough to me as a deal/company. We'll see how it does and where it goes.
    Jul 30, 2015. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vizio IPO: Company's Limitations Can Turn Into Catalysts [View article]
    I'm eager to see the roadshow and how the company is received by the market. Meanwhile their TV looks pretty good - I might have to get one to use for the OTT content I sometimes watch...
    Jul 29, 2015. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NEP Group IPO - Burning Lots Of Cash, Don't Plug In [View article]
    I know this stuff is harder to do then it looks.

    Notably absent from the "Investment Highlights" slide (11) in the IPO presentation is a bullet on profit or return on investment.

    It's all about markets, expertise, growth and M&A. Those are certainly important but equity investors may be right to be worried about the path to profitability.
    Jul 29, 2015. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insanity, Thy Name Is TerraForm Global [View article]
    Interesting article. I don't spend much time on these types of companies but now want to at least go through the presentation. With the turmoil in emerging markets and currencies I'm surprised that this deal can still get done. Maybe the do it at a discount? Is there a price at which you'd buy it?
    Jul 29, 2015. 07:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vizio IPO: Company's Limitations Can Turn Into Catalysts [View article]
    The tie up with suppliers could also be looked at as a unique strength. For example one of the things that Apple has done well is integrate the supply chain in such a way as to deliver huge volumes of new products with massive inventory very quickly. I realize that VZIO is a different animal but I have wondered about firms based in Asia with strong manufacturing linking up with a good US market position and using design sensitivity to gain market share from the more established brands. Vizio could be one such model but I have to take a deeper look.

    Thanks for your article!
    Jul 29, 2015. 07:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IPO Quiet Period Expiration: ConforMIS [View article]
    You have to be careful in playing these (either coverage or lock up expiration) since there can be large individual differences within the "average" stock reaction.

    Better to decide which ones you want to own long term and trade around those positions if you feel the need to based on events.
    Jul 28, 2015. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Stark Contrast Between iPad And Surface Sales [View article]
    The good news for MSFT is that it appears that the Surface has become the new "must have" for successful business types. The only bad news for AAPL there might be that these guys might have eventually succumbed and bought MacBooks or MacBook Pros.

    In the case of the Surface MSFT has something right that is the "new laptop." Still no where to be seen in smartphones and all that but they deserve a hat tip for the Surface. I wonder how Windows 10 will be received.
    Jul 24, 2015. 05:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ooma - Stay Away After A 'Failed' IPO [View article]
    I agree that reviews were mixed in general and I'd say that their product management team is slightly "hit and miss" as evidenced by Amazon reviews.

    Still they product seems overall decent and has a niche in the home market. The real key will be business segment growth which offers not just more opportunity but at least the *potential* to grow margins and reach profitability.

    Also agree though that the company has yet to demonstrate these things yet. My guess is growth accelerates post IPO but that margins remain disappointing.

    Management can only change people's minds with great results. In the words of Drake - "I've got high hopes for you &$%*, we gonna see!"
    Jul 24, 2015. 04:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ooma's Woes Could Create An Opportunity For The Long-Term Investor [View article]
    Our IV on OOMA suggests pretty material upside if they can execute. The SMB market is embracing cloud and communications is a key area. See our article if you want more details or poke at the IV model presented there.
    Jul 24, 2015. 04:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile: Kim K Trips, New Games Disappoint, Key Insider Sells Amid Crazy P/E [View article]
    Good article. It's what makes a market. Funny thing is that I saw many of the charts presented as positive rather than negative.

    I prefer a balanced approach in research and analysis rather than the purely bullish or purely bearish. Still reading both sides separately works pretty well to help form your own view on the business and the stock.

    Personally I think this company is executing well and the shares are responding based on that.
    Jul 23, 2015. 03:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blue Buffalo: The Natural Pet Food's Second IPO Chance Is Likely Another Bust [View article]
    Update. Now syndicate says $BUFF is likely to price above the range. Best guess is $20.
    Jul 21, 2015. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ooma - Been There, Done That [View article]
    I remember trying Vonage and being surprised at how high the monthly fee was. I think they priced themselves out of the home market for many. Guess that is why they are going after business. But right or wrong there is a perception that VG has "old" technology which might be an obstacle in the market. Interesting space.
    Jul 21, 2015. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ooma - Been There, Done That [View article]
    I remember trying Vonage and being surprised at how high the monthly fee was. I think they priced themselves out of the home market for many. Guess that is why they are going after business. But right or wrong there is a perception that VG has "old" technology which might be an obstacle in the market. Interesting space.
    Jul 21, 2015. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blue Buffalo: The Natural Pet Food's Second IPO Chance Is Likely Another Bust [View article]
    Deal is oversubscribed and should price well. Not clear if it will be above the range or not.
    Jul 21, 2015. 06:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rapid Revenue Growth Masks Profit Problems At Demandware [View article]
    It's not clear to me that anything is "masked" here in terms of how the company is doing. Right now investors and the management team are focused on growth. Sales productivity has remained fairly constant and at solid conversion levels for the past two years and results so far in 2015 do not show any deceleration or slippage.

    If the company does the $233M in revenues this year they are projected to get to break-even and generate profits in 2016. That is what is expected. Now if that incremental growth doesn't drive margins toward break-even then the stock will probably break down.

    The competitive analysis here isn't really complete and comparing ROIC between a company like ORCL and a small growth name like DWRE is just silly. You can compare ORCL and SAP or IBM but for DWRE other comps like NEWR or DATA are more apt.

    We may model this one a bit to see how our own IV comes out and also monitor this name for a decline in sales productivity - that could be a catalyst to short.
    Jul 20, 2015. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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297 Comments
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