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  • Taser International Inc: Price Spike Not Justified By Ferguson Crisis [View article]
    It's not just this incident. There have been several over the past few months. I've got no position in TASR nor am I considering one but the camera thing can certainly "have legs" so retail demand for TASR stock might be strong.
    Aug 19 07:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Drainage Systems: Let The Share Price Drain Be Your Gain [View article]
    So far the stock is holding up and performing well in a tough market. The comment above noting that the company should be able to refinance any obligations coming due is a fair one. Even if interest rates go up a bit it's not likely to be catastrophic. So maybe this is more of a case of potentially dead money than a short opportunity...
    Aug 14 06:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Drainage Systems: Let The Share Price Drain Be Your Gain [View article]
    Yeah you won't get a ton of page views for a stock like WMS. That's why so many guys put out yet another article on AAPL, AMZN or BBRY. I've got mixed feelings about PRO. The price makes it kind of out of reach for individuals but as long as the PRO content eventually makes it onto the main site I guess that's all good.

    If the brokers manage to push up the shares with coverage then I'd probably add to the short, the lock up expiration should put some downward pressure on this. Like you I'm amazed that an IPO like this got done after the "special dividend" and high insider selling. Says something about the market and/or underwriters I guess.
    Aug 12 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Drainage Systems: Let The Share Price Drain Be Your Gain [View article]
    Very good article. Thanks for putting that together. This was such an uninteresting deal we didn't do any work on it but noticed that they had one interesting product family which is aimed more squarely at the consumer end-markets (as opposed to contractors and construction companies.) In fact I bought some of their pre-wrapped drainage pipes on Amazon to work out a better way to keep parts of my driveway from washing out. It's unlikely to move the needle much on a $1B revenue company I suppose.

    We will get banking coverage soon - I guess early September. Then of course we have the lock-up expiration to look forward to. Sounds like a decent short opportunity, hard to imagine this get's more interesting on the long side...
    Aug 12 08:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deciphering The Madness That Is El Pollo Loco [View article]
    I'm reminded that the much-loved Potbelly ($PBPB) fell out of favor after so-so results and the stock has declined steadily from $30 to $12 over the past 6-7 months. $LOCO might be worth looking at as a short. Comes down to management, lock-up expiration too might help...
    Aug 11 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deciphering The Madness That Is El Pollo Loco [View article]
    LOCO is priced a bit for perfection here *but* it's also a much smaller capitalization relative to market opportunity as roosterly9 points out.

    We've got an article coming soon on SA discussing the same name.
    Aug 4 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List: The End May Be Nigh [View article]
    How is that software value increasing? Are they capitalizing their development expenses now or maybe it came in through some acquisitions?

    Also we published something on (NYSE:CRCM) (see that makes me wonder if they might be doing something similar. Have to check that.

    Good update on ANGI which is a sad story. Hated it long but didn't get around to a short. Where are the boards of "independent" directors on these companies? They seem to let management drive the company into the ground and just avert their eyes rather than doing anything about it...
    Aug 4 09:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • At A Crossroads [View article]
    Well this last quarter is another datapoint (nail in the coffin?) for investors in I haven't gone though all the numbers or listened to the call but it's very clear just from all the headline figures that the people who try don't like

    They are spending heavily for new "users" but the ones they have are not accelerating their use of the platform. Plus if you have used the site you know that they don't provide any warning about needing to pay to use the platform nor do they post pricing information to consult prior to sign up. Very bad online practice.

    Still one to watch, especially now down here at $8.65. Will listen to the call now and see if management keeps whistling past the graveyard. Of course they never let people like me ask questions on the conference call, just their favorite "research analysts"... ha!
    Aug 2 07:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Close The Door On E2open [View article]
    CEO Woodward is very bad based on experience with an earlier company he was at.

    I was watching for a stumble, sorry I missed this when it was over $25.
    Jul 23 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marchex: Another Bubble Basket Stock [View article]
    I met with this company almost 10 years ago and they were spinning this huge call advertising opportunity which included "exclusive deals" with Skype and AT&T. I tend to forget about them but it sounds like they are still out there.

    I haven't looked at it in detail yet but I suspect that Google will simply take over that space as search includes a simple link on the phone number which you just click to call. Doesn't seem very "hard" to me.

    It'll be interesting to see how the upcoming positioning of Yodle (or is it Yodlee) for local businesses to shout out to customers overlaps with MCHX. Could indeed be a decent short although attention on this "space" could push values up briefly (like KING did with GLUU and others before they crashed after the IPO was a dud.)
    Jul 12 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Ruckus Wireless [View article]
    I haven't taken a look at DRWI. I did a little work on XGTI but it's a tough one to figure out. Seems like XG is mostly about IP around more efficient use of spectrum. Could work out but I'm not smart enough to know. I would point out however that R&D around this basic topic has been going on since the 1950's at least by all the big dogs in technology. So that leaves me thinking the deck is stacked a bit against them.

    In contrast GSAT owns an asset (spectrum) plus related technology and services around it so it's simpler to grasp as a business and investment.

    RKUS has to keep driving innovation and density. Google is a good partner to do that with. Now it's really all up to management there...
    Jul 11 09:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annie's, Inc. - Why Did PwC Abandon This BNNY? [View article]
    Very well done article on the issues around BNNY. I was surprised at how well the shares did given the quality of the product and story. All that's missing now is a quality control scandal like finding a mouse in a box of their mac & cheese. That'll send their core market (moms with small kids) running!

    [No position of any kind in this stock.]
    Jul 11 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. IPO Pipeline Update: 8 Companies Added To Next Week's IPO Calendar [View article]
    Having Yodle and Yodlee both on the calendar is pretty funny!

    I'm not sure it's froth or not, we'll see how those look on valuation when they come. I agree that there is definitely some over exuberance in some places. I don't get GoPro (GPRO) which is a great company, product, etc. but the margins are fairly limited and I don't see increasing returns to scale which you might get from an Uber. Analysts will have to try and make sense of the price/value when they initiate coverage - that'll be interesting to see. Separation of research and banking indeed!
    Jul 11 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mobile Iron Transcript - Big Upside If Model Plays Out [View article]
    Good discussion here. I think it's fair to say that this is a very competitive market but there are really only a handful of vendors that offer a full range of products for this. The Gartner report and ranking is at least one reasonable guide there.

    There are definitely some issues facing $MOBL and agree they need to continue to demonstrate strong top-line growth if anyone is to believe the long-term model is attainable.

    In the very short term we can expect their underwriter research departments to provide some visibility of where the growth, valuation and stock price can end up. They will be forced to discuss competitive issues as well.

    Readers here may not have seen the story about a big breech of the $MOBL solution at a big insurance company which will raise some controversy. As with most things it's hard to tell if the weakness was in the $MOBL software itself or a lower-level component of the software stack.

    Management has a lot to prove but I'd like to believe that the underwriting team has done enough work on this to validate that the underlying solution is strong enough to maintain or gain market share in what we know is a good end market.
    Jul 2 08:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zulily Management 'Happy To Be Misunderstood' [View article]
    What was different about the Sears catalog is that they were Sears products and delivered by Sears. Plus Sears was one catalog for all. ZU is mostly different because it is personalized and filtered based on your interests and focused more on capturing the purchase.

    My point on positioning is it's not clear what this is. I don't "forgive Amazon" their investment in infrastructure because that is in fact what I see the company as being all about. Their mission has always been to have the most SKUs with the best price and delivery. That's about infrastructure, not personalization. (Amazon actually does a pretty crappy job given all the information they have on me but that's a whole other story...)

    Customers so far have liked the nice daily "catalog" but the slow delivery and in some cases shoddy quality not so much. How will ZU do with returns and customer satisfaction? I don't know except they plan to invest more in an area I don't think is a core competence.

    I'm also not saying the company is going to do poorly, in fact the current stock price indicates a pretty damn good success story with the company capturing $4.5B in sales and $400M in profits in 2019. That's versus the $700M they did last year.

    Ignoring short term investor needs is okay if you state your story clearly enough and support your decisions with logic and analysis. I think there is going to be a "pause" in this story as consumers and ZU digest what they can and can't do, what they are right for and what they are not right for.

    I've got nothing against them but I would not want to be long the stock at these prices right now.
    May 16 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment