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  • Why Fitbit Doesn't Need To Worry About The Apple Watch [View article]
    The Apple Watch takes a pretty big bite out of the TAM for Fitbit and will reduce the valuation of the company in the market post IPO.

    We've got some good data to support this and hope to get a note out soon to share it.
    May 23, 2015. 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickLogic: A Venture Capital-Style Opportunity For Public Market Investors [View article]
    These guys have failed to deliver for a long time, over and over, failure. The CEO has been in place for about 10 years during which time they have not created any long-term shareholder value. Technologies come and go and this consistently creates opportunities for companies that have strong R&D, product development, operating management and business strategy. These guys obviously don't have that and unless they change it they'll probably miss out on the next wave as well.

    Yes the stock is cheap (kind of) and washed out (but will get more so as it exits the R2000 as another commenter pointed out) and has opportunities but why would anyone want to take a risk given their history of failure?

    On a fundamental view the sensor market is exiting in terms of units but demand for large volumes and hyper-competition will make margins razor-thin and yet require major capital investments. Doesn't sound like a good backdrop for a mediocre (at best) management team to execute against.

    Greener pastures in terms of market structure, returns on invested capital and management teams are out there.
    May 22, 2015. 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Pre-Order Sellout: Have The Pundits Underestimated Apple Again? [View article]
    Sellouts come from limited supply and I'm sure $AAPL was conservative with how many they can deliver. Lots of customers will just buy on reflex so there's always that pent-up demand. I'm long Apple so not picking at them but just that a "sellout" is meaningless without actual numbers sold.
    Apr 10, 2015. 09:23 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MaxPoint Disappoints With IPO, But Is It Still A Viable Investment? [View article]
    We liked $MXPT and are a little surprised it didn't do better. If management puts a few good execution quarters together this year it'll work. Haven't done the IV yet to see what the price potential is.
    Mar 17, 2015. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Fighting The Battle That Can't Be Won [View article]
    Currency is certainly a factor however I think the market and investors will "look through" it - at least those interested in long-term investing. Could add to quarterly volatility maybe but really not much to argue about. All the large multinationals face the same issue.
    Mar 11, 2015. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators' Day Of Reckoning [View article]
    It's funny because this isn't something we'd follow but I went into some of these stores years ago, then sometimes I'd see market updates noting more new highs in the stock I'd think to myself "really, that dumpy little discount retail chain is a hit with investors, seems weird." I wasn't smart enough to follow through on it - had I read your work I probably would have had the courage to short.

    Keep up the good work. This one seems to be coming back - giving people another bite at the apple on the short side.
    Feb 28, 2015. 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lending Club: What Did Investors Expect? [View article]
    Reality tends to disappoint relative to all the "blue sky" painted during a roadshow.
    Feb 26, 2015. 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shake Shack: The Market Priced In The Reward Up To 2020 [View article]
    It's a formula and arguably one that works well. Chipotle is one of those. I don't know if $SHAK will be too but they do some things that might work well if they can scale them up - the combination of a really good burger with a beer and a dessert delivered quickly (but the lines have to go.)

    We put a piece together on $SHAK as well that goes through more analysis of the competition. See "Shaking up the Shack" for more: http://bit.ly/1CyqOeo

    To cut to the chase our IV came in at around $17 so agree that there's no bargain here. Bulls point to "scarcity" value in the stock but given the range of other comparable companies I don't fully appreciate the durability of that argument, especially after lock-ups come off.

    Good article!
    Feb 26, 2015. 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TubeMogul: Why This Stock Will Go Down The Tubes [View article]
    Then link is helpful but it looks like they still own oneload.com - if so they should get rid of it. I agree I think it hurts the brand.
    Feb 25, 2015. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TubeMogul: Why This Stock Will Go Down The Tubes [View article]
    It's hard to figure out where this one goes from here. From 30,000 feet none of these companies has ever been able to create enough differentiation to thrive. Doesn't mean someone might not eventually do it but thusfar none have - BrightCove comes to mind.

    The other thing is go try out their oneload platform - it's okay but pretty basic - even the demonstration video overview is borderline unprofessional - you can even hear some dog barking in the background as you get to the end. That's just a big yellow flag for me.

    Tempting name to do more work on if we get to it...
    Feb 19, 2015. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Glu Mobile Setting Up For A Massive Short Squeeze? [View article]
    Making flippy-floppy trying to do our best!

    Seriously though all this seems like a huge waste of time - worrying about shorts, worrying about insiders. How about just focusing on the fundamentals, doing some research to see how things are developing, and doing some modeling and valuation. Then you make your portfolio allocation decisions from there.

    If you want to play cloaks and daggers there are places to do it just for fun.
    Feb 13, 2015. 06:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Presbia Puts Your Reading Glasses In Your Eyeball [View article]
    Hi Justin,

    I agree that maybe this requires a doctor or scientist to dig into. Clearly the regulatory agencies will only certify this procedure after they have fully investigated it. I do think that as one ages a more powerful micro-lens will need to be swapped into the "pocket" they create in the eye - that's the idea anyway.

    I think the way they get around affecting overall vision is that they do this on just one eye. It's early days. If I remember laser eye surgery was very controversial too. I'm planning to spend some time with an ophthalmologist at some point and ask them specifically about the viability of this procedure.
    Feb 11, 2015. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On The Perils Of Management Access And Straying From Process: My Adventure With Jones Soda [View article]
    Speaking with management is in many cases necessary but it should almost be done only to find fault with them or the strategy. All realize that 99 times out of 100 management represents a selling interest in the stock so want to say things that will get people to buy and own it - regardless if what they are saying represents the best information and most complete picture of the fundamentals.

    It's also worth noting that management may have vastly superior visibility of what's going on inside the company they often have poorer visibility than you do at what's going on outside - in the field, with distributors, with customers. That's where you're more likely to find valuable nuggets.
    Feb 9, 2015. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Presbia Puts Your Reading Glasses In Your Eyeball [View article]
    This isn't a cure for all eyesight problems but for the middle-aged affliction of light not hitting the right parts of the eye in near-focus or far-focus situations.

    Reading glasses are an example where an embedded lens makes light from close sources show up brighter on the retina so you can see them better. The eye chart example in the roadshow shows several lines of improvement which is pretty good. It doesn't impair your binocular, far-field vision as shown in the test results.

    Reading glasses seem like an okay solution but as your eyes get worse and you literally can't read without them then frustration arises if they are not close at hand. That feeling might make me consider the surgery although I'm generally squeamish.
    Feb 9, 2015. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro: Apple Is Not The Threat [View article]
    What GoPro lacks now (and Apple has) is an ecosystem around it to solidify their position. People can get great laptops, phones and tablets now but they don't run MacOS, iOS or any of their applications - so they stick with Apple. That can change but for many it's not likely.

    If Sony came out with a better GoPro at a cheaper price I'd buy it. I know GoPro is working on software and being a "media" site but it's not much now. GoPro still seems like the best product in the market to me but with a very premium price that I don't think will stick when we have more competition in 2015. Because they use off the shelf components it won't be hard for the market to get more crowded - probably before they can really cement any real moat into the battlefield.
    Feb 6, 2015. 04:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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