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  • ReWalk Robotics IPO - Exoskeletons For The Disabled [View article]
    I don't think it was a scam. From what I can piece together this was a case of having a small group of underwriters. What it means is that they took in orders from those platforms but they captured only a small part of what the real demand.

    So they priced and opened the stock based on their narrow view of demand and after the stock began to trade many other investors who were left out of the active marketing and order-taking bought stock. Then of course there is retail demand.

    I agree that it's absurd that the pricing and allocation of IPO stocks remains a cryptic smoke filled room activity where the outcome is dictated by large financial institutions and their largest clients. It's as bad as the old LIBOR fixing scandal yet there seem to be no calls for reform.

    So you do your best. On the plus side this gave investors a great chance to buy the stock at a discount after it opened and before it took off. Where it goes from here is hard to say. Our short post here indicates that if management can execute and the market really develops in the next few years their IV would be $112. But right here it's *very* early so I think enthusiasm is a bit ahead of reality.
    Sep 13 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ReWalk Robotics Ltd. IPO: Skeletons In The Closet [View article]
    I agree this one is pretty speculative. I have a slightly more positive view of management and they may be able to execute.

    If they do there is quite a bit of upside here. Not likely to be anything immediate given the faint appetite for the deal (priced below the range today.)

    I also think that the relationship with Yaskawa is an important risk-limiting aspect of the situation.
    Sep 12 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GoDaddy IPO S-1 Teardown [View article]
    Well that's what makes a market. I don't have a strong opinion on this one and am not a big fan of the company. So it is worth watching for sure!
    Sep 8 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3's Ominous End Looms For Stock Markets [View article]
    The only thing I can predict with 100% certainty is that nobody has had any success predicting the market. The other thing that seems to go along with this (paradoxically) is that many smart people continue to do it!
    Sep 7 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Better Entry Point For Apple Will Become Available For Patient Investors: Updated [View article]
    Investors are probably looking longer term. Apple is poised in a few areas like payments that could be very big and in the meantime keep taking share where it matters.

    Smartphones are very important but at the high end the market growth has certainly slowed. Anyone that can afford one has one. Although the iPhone upgrade/replace cycle will be big.

    I have a significant long position in Apple which I have maintained for a long time and have no plans to sell as long as the company continues to be well managed and the shares trade at a reasonable valuation with respect to the cash flow they generate.

    The stock bumps around but has routinely rewarded patient investors.
    Sep 7 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro Is The Epitome Of Irrational Exuberance [View article]
    I understand the point of view here and was of the same mind a while back. However I changed my thinking on $GPRO and too a small long position.

    Here's why: Although it is hardware and the monetization of the content is vague I think about the iPod. Yes it was hardware but it consolidated and standardized a huge amount of activity around digital music. (Remember all those MP3 players?)

    It's not the same of course but I see the potential. To me the risk for GPRO is more about the smartphones that are so photo and video capable. If I could put the right kind of case around my phone and mount it to my bike, tractor, dog or whatever then maybe that's enough. I don't need to spend $400 on a camera.

    This should be a great stock to watch and cover as the story evolves. I suspect there will be great interest among both longs and shorts.
    Sep 7 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short-Term Losses, Trading Opportunity In Sight For Paylocity Holding Corp. [View article]
    Sometimes underwriters release shares early so the performance around the 180-day can be hard to predict. That is a pretty large chunk of stock though.

    One suggestion would be to divide the shares coming out by the recent average daily volume to get a measure on how many days of trading the new shares represent. Just a thought...

    Thanks for the article!
    Sep 7 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RetailMeNot: Undervalued And Overshorted [View article]
    I think $COUP has a more defendable position. It's not clear to me that $SALE is doing anything more than trying to aggregate a bunch of coupon codes. Anyone can do that and then spend money on sales and marketing to get traffic. It can generate margins since it's easy to do but that also means it's not sustainable. Look out.
    Sep 2 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TrueCar: Missed The First Double? Don't Miss The Second [View article]
    As a long-term holder I agree. TRUE should be able to effectively be the "data aggregator" in the space and continue to grow. TRUE was a client of our s back in 2012 and we did some work on the space and the company. Available at at no charge. ;-)

    Keep up the great work!
    Aug 29 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TrueCar: Missed The First Double? Don't Miss The Second [View article]
    We have certainly liked TRUE since the IPO and even published a full length report on the company back when they were still private. The IPO Candy Folio has a long position in TRUE that was purchased on at the open of the IPO. This is indeed a good long-term story the stock has enjoyed a great run but there are a couple of negative factors to consider.

    First of all stock based compensation is real, at least for equity owners. It's a cost of doing business and although it will vary it does matter. Secondly we have a lockup expiration to look forward to and I'd expect there to be many shares coming to market as there is sent pent-up demand for liquidity among insiders.

    Finally the US auto market has recovered well, partly on the back of heavy incentives and low rates - both of which are fading as we enter 2015. So the overall US car market growth rate will most likely slow and this cyclical factor could put a small damper on the secular growth of $TRUE. Just something to be aware of versus expectations.

    The company is doing very well and I'd take weakness in the stock as an opportunity to accumulate more.
    Aug 28 08:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Key Points The Bears Miss [View article]
    I haven't ever had the time to really decide if NFLX is expensive or cheap. Yes content fees will rise but as their user base grows so will revenue and the fees can be amortized over a larger population. Also more content helps lower churn and customer acquisition cost.

    Longer term the big question for me is "Is NFLX becoming just another channel versus a platform?" This may be the case with AppleTV, CableCos and YouTube-like channels. NFLX tends to have lots of less popular content and many older seasons of hit shows but for the good stuff you have to pay extra. Maybe they will introduce that model to help finance getting more new releases and recent seasons of hit shows.
    Aug 25 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taser International Inc: Price Spike Not Justified By Ferguson Crisis [View article]
    It's not just this incident. There have been several over the past few months. I've got no position in TASR nor am I considering one but the camera thing can certainly "have legs" so retail demand for TASR stock might be strong.
    Aug 19 07:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Drainage Systems: Let The Share Price Drain Be Your Gain [View article]
    So far the stock is holding up and performing well in a tough market. The comment above noting that the company should be able to refinance any obligations coming due is a fair one. Even if interest rates go up a bit it's not likely to be catastrophic. So maybe this is more of a case of potentially dead money than a short opportunity...
    Aug 14 06:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Drainage Systems: Let The Share Price Drain Be Your Gain [View article]
    Yeah you won't get a ton of page views for a stock like WMS. That's why so many guys put out yet another article on AAPL, AMZN or BBRY. I've got mixed feelings about PRO. The price makes it kind of out of reach for individuals but as long as the PRO content eventually makes it onto the main site I guess that's all good.

    If the brokers manage to push up the shares with coverage then I'd probably add to the short, the lock up expiration should put some downward pressure on this. Like you I'm amazed that an IPO like this got done after the "special dividend" and high insider selling. Says something about the market and/or underwriters I guess.
    Aug 12 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Drainage Systems: Let The Share Price Drain Be Your Gain [View article]
    Very good article. Thanks for putting that together. This was such an uninteresting deal we didn't do any work on it but noticed that they had one interesting product family which is aimed more squarely at the consumer end-markets (as opposed to contractors and construction companies.) In fact I bought some of their pre-wrapped drainage pipes on Amazon to work out a better way to keep parts of my driveway from washing out. It's unlikely to move the needle much on a $1B revenue company I suppose.

    We will get banking coverage soon - I guess early September. Then of course we have the lock-up expiration to look forward to. Sounds like a decent short opportunity, hard to imagine this get's more interesting on the long side...
    Aug 12 08:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment