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  • Mobile Iron Transcript - Big Upside If Model Plays Out [View article]
    Good discussion here. I think it's fair to say that this is a very competitive market but there are really only a handful of vendors that offer a full range of products for this. The Gartner report and ranking is at least one reasonable guide there.

    There are definitely some issues facing $MOBL and agree they need to continue to demonstrate strong top-line growth if anyone is to believe the long-term model is attainable.

    In the very short term we can expect their underwriter research departments to provide some visibility of where the growth, valuation and stock price can end up. They will be forced to discuss competitive issues as well.

    Readers here may not have seen the story about a big breech of the $MOBL solution at a big insurance company which will raise some controversy. As with most things it's hard to tell if the weakness was in the $MOBL software itself or a lower-level component of the software stack.

    Management has a lot to prove but I'd like to believe that the underwriting team has done enough work on this to validate that the underlying solution is strong enough to maintain or gain market share in what we know is a good end market.
    Jul 2 08:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zulily Management 'Happy To Be Misunderstood' [View article]
    What was different about the Sears catalog is that they were Sears products and delivered by Sears. Plus Sears was one catalog for all. ZU is mostly different because it is personalized and filtered based on your interests and focused more on capturing the purchase.

    My point on positioning is it's not clear what this is. I don't "forgive Amazon" their investment in infrastructure because that is in fact what I see the company as being all about. Their mission has always been to have the most SKUs with the best price and delivery. That's about infrastructure, not personalization. (Amazon actually does a pretty crappy job given all the information they have on me but that's a whole other story...)

    Customers so far have liked the nice daily "catalog" but the slow delivery and in some cases shoddy quality not so much. How will ZU do with returns and customer satisfaction? I don't know except they plan to invest more in an area I don't think is a core competence.

    I'm also not saying the company is going to do poorly, in fact the current stock price indicates a pretty damn good success story with the company capturing $4.5B in sales and $400M in profits in 2019. That's versus the $700M they did last year.

    Ignoring short term investor needs is okay if you state your story clearly enough and support your decisions with logic and analysis. I think there is going to be a "pause" in this story as consumers and ZU digest what they can and can't do, what they are right for and what they are not right for.

    I've got nothing against them but I would not want to be long the stock at these prices right now.
    May 16 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SMART Technologies Is A Stupid Investment [View article]
    I think the article accurately points out some technology laggard characteristics at this company and obviously it's been a lousy IPO.

    But I'm wondering if new offerings are better, more integrated and internet-friendly. Could these guys be a play on more online learning and collaboration?

    Has anyone evaluated these products lately?
    Apr 16 07:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rubicon Project Fills Out Mini Digital Advertising Sector [View article]
    The problem I have with TRMR is that for management to be "caught with their pants down" so soon after coming public inspires little confidence in them knowing where their business is going. It also burns up all the work done in the IPO marketing process because those investors have given up and are unlikely to come back to this management team.

    And I believe they are still losing money so despite having a great balance sheet it will be deteriorating. Having said that it doesn't mean that management can't execute their way out of this and for the sake of the individuals that are taking positions down here and giving them a second chance I hope they do!
    Apr 10 05:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rubicon Project Fills Out Mini Digital Advertising Sector [View article]
    Tremor TRMR probably suffers to some extent by the failure of other "video advertising" plays like BrightCove (BCOV) and Kit Digital (OTC:KITD).
    Apr 9 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rubicon Project Fills Out Mini Digital Advertising Sector [View article]
    Wow great comments both. I'll have a look at ADTN (I was mostly look at recent IPO names versus the existing market.)

    Also agree that the RUBI platform is buried a little deeper and looking at net versus growth revenues are important. Really should do an IV model on these to tease out "realistic" valuations for the stocks.
    Apr 8 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Busy IPO Calendar Cheatsheet [View article]
    Good summary! So far you're doing pretty well.
    Apr 7 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not 'Crushing' On King Digital Entertainment IPO [View article]
    Well $KING has been a very disappointing IPO so far. The question is do we have a $FB situation where this one will grow to be a success? or not...
    Apr 1 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not 'Crushing' On King Digital Entertainment IPO [View article]
    We're just finishing up our writeup on this one and posting the transcript of the roadshow. Their success has been astounding but it's hard to not think that they are at a peak right now (hence the IPO) and things will be great but just a little less great going forward.

    From all that it's hard to figure what multiples to use for valuation. There was no "target model" slide in the deck although I'm sure institutions are getting some of that guidance in their 1 on 1 meetings.

    Should be a good IPO for sure. It's certainly worth $28 and will probably end up trading at 2x that. Just my guess.
    Mar 25 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List Struggles, More Woes Ahead [View article]
    Angie's list seems to be getting killed somewhat by "free" which is easily implemented by Google and Yelp to name two. It's true their results are not as good in this category but guess what, their volumes mean their results get better every second. ANGI has created a walled garden and a kind of unhappy one at that. You can see by the metrics that people have to be drawn into it, they don't want to go and they don't want to stay once they are in it.

    As long as that remains true the numbers don't matter much.
    Mar 6 03:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marin Software: It's Time To Know The Name [View article]
    Marin Software does indeed seem to be a neglected name in the IPO space which is probably tied to management execution. It is a fairly hot space so if the company performs better the shares should eventually find an uptrend. I wonder how easy/hard the comps are for the next few quarters? A couple more "beat and raise" quarters would change the sentiment on this one for sure.
    Mar 2 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bluebird Bio May Turn Dreams Into Reality [View article]
    Inspiring company story and very cutting edge disease treatment. I liked the roadshow and love what they are doing. However it seems like a very small and still experimental market. As an investor it's harder to get excited about this versus other companies going after larger target markets like cancer for example. All of these require patience and risk tolerance, probably a diversified approach is needed as well like take 2% of your portfolio and buy your five favorite biotech names.
    Mar 2 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill's Dividend Is Too Risky [View article]
    If you like dividends - floating, secure or insecure I'd suggest taking a look at North Atlantic Drilling as well (NADL). Relatively new name, nice yield, I expect IB analyst coverage to come out this week on the name.
    Mar 2 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Pharmaceuticals IPO Could Fly Due To Commercial Success And Near-Profitability [View article]
    I was originally underwhelmed by the management team and story. However by leveraging the expensive R&D and clinical investments of others (partially offset by legal fees) this is probably a pretty high return business model. Seems a little "weasel-y" to me but I suppose there are benefits from competition here. No position now but may add to the IPO Candy Folio.
    Feb 26 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intelsat's Year-End Results Highlight Dependence On Next Generation Epic Satellites [View article]
    Very good article. We may reference it in an upcoming post that includes this company.
    Feb 25 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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199 Comments
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