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  • Alarm.com - Room For Post-IPO Momentum Run [View article]
    Company has some drawbacks but is sure way better than CTRL. Our IV suggests $20 this year is a reasonable target. Good write up!
    Jun 30, 2015. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickLogic: A Venture Capital-Style Opportunity For Public Market Investors [View article]
    On the plus side it looks like every four years people forget enough for the stock to rally to $4 or $5/share before the new holders relearn the lessons of the non-delivery past and the stock goes back to $1. So at these levels if you can hold on for greater fools to buy in the returns would be fairly high.
    Jun 19, 2015. 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Fitbit Doesn't Need To Worry About The Apple Watch [View article]
    It's debatable. If they are in fact focused on dedicated health/wellness then I think it's a smaller market and could be more competitive than you think if the Apple Watch is a platform that applications from others get built on. Would you launch a proprietary tablet now? Or a proprietary music player?

    I'm not sure the word "hurt" applies but shifting market opportunity and ecosystem-based competition could make valuation hard to pin down.
    Jun 11, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem At Google Is Larry Page [View article]
    I'd say that the FB strategy is where the momentum is now. Google has been and continues to be content-focused whereas I see FB as people focused and they have made acquisitions to make sure that they keep a strong hold on that. That means that content providers and advertisers have to be on FB to get the reach they need. FB is essentially trumping GOOG with this approach IMO.

    So yes I'd say FB gets to $100. (no position though..)
    Jun 3, 2015. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem At Google Is Larry Page [View article]
    About six months ago there were some articles highlighting a "leadership vacuum" at GOOG which I agreed with. Your article and their ongoing performance makes me wonder if there is an emerging "execution gap" between all these big ideas (most with lower or unclear margins) and making them into real products and services.

    As was said years ago "Google is a one trick pony but it's a hell of a trick!" I wonder if Facebook might look at search and decide that even a small effort might take a reasonable share - especially by overlaying some social aspects and using more people-friendly algorithms. If a credible threat emerged to the GOOG cash machine you'd see some panic and soul-searching in the management team.

    Might take a long time - look at how long Balmer enjoyed driving MSFT into the ground.
    May 31, 2015. 01:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Post's Acquisitions Leave A Sour Taste [View article]
    I didn't even realize that PowerBar was still around. Kind and similar products seem like they have taken over. The name PowerBar could be resurrected with a major overhaul to make it all natural, organic and more current with what consumers want but this company doesn't seem like they innovate much if at all.
    May 31, 2015. 12:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Fitbit Doesn't Need To Worry About The Apple Watch [View article]
    The Apple Watch takes a pretty big bite out of the TAM for Fitbit and will reduce the valuation of the company in the market post IPO.

    We've got some good data to support this and hope to get a note out soon to share it.
    May 23, 2015. 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickLogic: A Venture Capital-Style Opportunity For Public Market Investors [View article]
    These guys have failed to deliver for a long time, over and over, failure. The CEO has been in place for about 10 years during which time they have not created any long-term shareholder value. Technologies come and go and this consistently creates opportunities for companies that have strong R&D, product development, operating management and business strategy. These guys obviously don't have that and unless they change it they'll probably miss out on the next wave as well.

    Yes the stock is cheap (kind of) and washed out (but will get more so as it exits the R2000 as another commenter pointed out) and has opportunities but why would anyone want to take a risk given their history of failure?

    On a fundamental view the sensor market is exiting in terms of units but demand for large volumes and hyper-competition will make margins razor-thin and yet require major capital investments. Doesn't sound like a good backdrop for a mediocre (at best) management team to execute against.

    Greener pastures in terms of market structure, returns on invested capital and management teams are out there.
    May 22, 2015. 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Pre-Order Sellout: Have The Pundits Underestimated Apple Again? [View article]
    Sellouts come from limited supply and I'm sure $AAPL was conservative with how many they can deliver. Lots of customers will just buy on reflex so there's always that pent-up demand. I'm long Apple so not picking at them but just that a "sellout" is meaningless without actual numbers sold.
    Apr 10, 2015. 09:23 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MaxPoint Disappoints With IPO, But Is It Still A Viable Investment? [View article]
    We liked $MXPT and are a little surprised it didn't do better. If management puts a few good execution quarters together this year it'll work. Haven't done the IV yet to see what the price potential is.
    Mar 17, 2015. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Fighting The Battle That Can't Be Won [View article]
    Currency is certainly a factor however I think the market and investors will "look through" it - at least those interested in long-term investing. Could add to quarterly volatility maybe but really not much to argue about. All the large multinationals face the same issue.
    Mar 11, 2015. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators' Day Of Reckoning [View article]
    It's funny because this isn't something we'd follow but I went into some of these stores years ago, then sometimes I'd see market updates noting more new highs in the stock I'd think to myself "really, that dumpy little discount retail chain is a hit with investors, seems weird." I wasn't smart enough to follow through on it - had I read your work I probably would have had the courage to short.

    Keep up the good work. This one seems to be coming back - giving people another bite at the apple on the short side.
    Feb 28, 2015. 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lending Club: What Did Investors Expect? [View article]
    Reality tends to disappoint relative to all the "blue sky" painted during a roadshow.
    Feb 26, 2015. 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shake Shack: The Market Priced In The Reward Up To 2020 [View article]
    It's a formula and arguably one that works well. Chipotle is one of those. I don't know if $SHAK will be too but they do some things that might work well if they can scale them up - the combination of a really good burger with a beer and a dessert delivered quickly (but the lines have to go.)

    We put a piece together on $SHAK as well that goes through more analysis of the competition. See "Shaking up the Shack" for more: http://bit.ly/1CyqOeo

    To cut to the chase our IV came in at around $17 so agree that there's no bargain here. Bulls point to "scarcity" value in the stock but given the range of other comparable companies I don't fully appreciate the durability of that argument, especially after lock-ups come off.

    Good article!
    Feb 26, 2015. 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TubeMogul: Why This Stock Will Go Down The Tubes [View article]
    Then link is helpful but it looks like they still own oneload.com - if so they should get rid of it. I agree I think it hurts the brand.
    Feb 25, 2015. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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