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  • Why Wayfair Is My Largest Short Position [View article]
    Thanks for including our article on Wayfair. Since we wrote it I have noticed that Amazon has discovered online "merchandising" for clothing and I expect they will roll that out for home furnishings as well.

    I've read several reports in the last two months, some making the bull case but no matter which side I take I don't believe there is any chance they will reach their target model of 10% EBITDA margins. In the best case scenario it's 4-5%.

    Then again as I write this I see people buying up the stock with both hands here just under $43/share. You have to worry that this trade may be too "crowded."
    Nov 10, 2015. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Many Ferrari Shares Will Fiat Chrysler Shareholders Get? [View article]
    $5/share in value from RACE for FCAU is pretty good. The rest of the company seems way undervalued but can management improve operations and culture there?
    Oct 27, 2015. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FinTech Acquisition 'Blank Check' IPO: Buzzy Name, Fuzzy Aim [View article]
    These guys should acquire NXT-ID (NXTD) IMO. There's a bunch of new technology coming out that they could really use to establish a beachhead in this "post-plastic" world... (no position)
    Oct 27, 2015. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look Inside The Duluth Holdings IPO [View article]
    I have always enjoyed their catalog and their growing array of products. Their stuff is pretty solid, a little pricey sometimes for what it is. I'll be interested to take a deeper look at the story as they get to marketing.
    Oct 26, 2015. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The One Item Nobody Is Mentioning [View article]
    Worth checking out estimize and seeing what they have on it.
    Oct 19, 2015. 11:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Neiman Marcus: Another Postponement Amid IPO Madness [View article]
    If we see Ferrari successful and Albertson's gets out then maybe NMG will follow. They do have a brand and a customer base that could work. Sometimes it feels like these PE firms look at the stock market as a way to find the next bag holders!

    Buyer beware always in this market. Somewhat sad state of affairs.
    Oct 19, 2015. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Have Zero Interest In The Square IPO [View article]
    We haven't started working on this one yet. When Square launched years ago they were certainly innovative - the reader generated lots of "oohs and ahhs" but this has since been replicated by PayPal and perhaps leapfrogged by technologies like Apple Pay.

    It is early in payments and with EMV/NFC and all the anti-fraud provisions there is lots of moving technology. At a high level I wonder if Square hasn't just missed being able to invest heavily enough in the last two years to keep pace.

    Another way to look at the bull case is to figure out who would want to acquire them. Who is the number two or "also ran" to FDC? Or could a second tier outfit like Western Union afford them and then roll everything into the more trendy "Square" brand?
    Oct 19, 2015. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Square IPO: Strongly Consider An Allocation [View article]
    Square hasn't set terms yet so we don't know what price range they will propose. There's no point doing anything until you know what the valuation will be and what type of market conditions we will have when they price. The current market hasn't been too kind but things may improve.

    Once they set terms we can run an actual long term model and see where the shares may settle out post-IPO. It's true that popular companies like Square have a greater tendency for a "pop" but it'll all be very clear once the company starts marketing.
    Oct 3, 2015. 06:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Ambarella Bottomed? [View article]
    These businesses go through a typical lifecycle. AMBA is no different.

    See for our writeup and model. (Might be here on SA as well...)

    The stock may be reaching some level of being oversold but the type of growth acceleration and margin expansion that drove it before will not be back.
    Sep 15, 2015. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • History Says Ambarella Will Go Sideways From Here [View article]
    I acknowledge that the IPO was undersold and didn't price well. However I'm looking at overall performance, not the pricing and first day gains. But I agree that I should have selected my words there more carefully.

    I didn't expect (let alone know) that Q3 guidance would be a little weak. It could indicate that the thesis of a shift to "good" but not "great" results is already underway and with that a re-rating of the shares.

    When revenue growth remains decent but margins begin to decline the stock will have another leg down. From these levels it may be able to establish some kind of trading range for now.
    Sep 2, 2015. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Aware Of The Danger Hidden Within IPOs? [View article]
    Excellent article on some key points IPO investors need to consider. I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater though. Our database is pushing 1000 recently public companies and while some or many may be unprofitable, lean on stock-based compensation hard and/or insist on this "adjusted EBITDA" concept - many are solid, growing, and profitable businesses.

    Even some that are not are creating some potentially life-changing technologies. (I don't think any of the ones you mentioned above are.) That these companies choose and can go public while still in pre-commercial stages is a little surprising to me but the market has accepted it. In the case of drug development the smaller companies have taken over the discovery and approval of new drugs from the large pharma companies who often end up buying them to bolster their own pipelines.

    In any event this is a good article to help investors sort out the wheat from the chaff. Although they can be hard to short there are cases where this kind of analysis yields some good opportunities there as well, especially when lock-up agreements expire.
    Aug 26, 2015. 07:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accelerate Diagnostics - A Misleading Story Ripe For Decline [View article]
    I wonder if the competitors rely on genotypic or phenotypic techniques.
    Aug 25, 2015. 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I've Been Wrong About Freshpet - So Far [View article]
    The chairman of the company is wildly bullish and promotional. Probably continues to suck people in. Stock is down but still at 5x sales. So is Blue Buffalo BUFF which came public more recently.
    Aug 21, 2015. 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Radcom: Still An Owner, Still Bullish [View article]
    Good article here on this little company. I've been looking into it. Seems like the trend is large and in place. There are still some questions surround ROI of these "NFV" investments but at the same time they seem unavoidable.

    On a related note it does seem that the SMB market shift to IP-based solutions is accelerating. I don't have hard data on it but have heard it from several quasi-reliable sources. I think that keeps the pressure on the network owners to move forward with this type of technology.
    Aug 21, 2015. 05:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mobile Iron Transcript - Big Upside If Model Plays Out [View article]
    Glad we never put this one in the Folio. I wonder if at $4.30 it's worth bottom fishing? One has to assume management hasn't executed here so probably tastier fish to fry elsewhere!
    Aug 20, 2015. 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment