Ira Artman

John Taylor Clears the Way for an Informed View of the Financial Crisis

Thank you all for kind words.

With respect to what the new Administration needs so it will not continue or repeat prior policy mistakes, I believe that the answer is simply - wisdom and the courage of their convictions.

If they are lacking in either or both, then I'm not sure why we bothered to hold last fall's election.

Monetary Mechanisms: Then and Now

Flow5 - Thank you for time and comments. You've given me much to think about. - Ira

Learning Curves: Identifying a Recession

While you may be able to "feel recession in your bones", were you feeling the recession in your bones as of October of 2006?

Interesting thing is not the "NAI", which is, I guess, a more-or-less coincident indicator, but Estrella et. al.'s work on Yield Curve Predictor.

It gives you a warning one year ahead of time.

Monetary Mechanisms: Then and Now

Replies for ebreen, flow5, and derryl

#1: ebreen: You are correct. In balance between content & length I confined inflation comments to first piece in series ("The Demographic and Economic Record Prior to the Housing Meltdown"), but not here, and perhaps should have.

#2: flow5+derryl: Understand point that you are making. But how, then, to interpret the claims that occurred during the 70's - 80's that "dintermediation" was occuring in banking system? If deposits can't leave, then "where did they go?", or would you say that - by definition - there is NO such thing as dintermediation?