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Irfan Chaudhry  

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  • Platinum Price Forecast For 2015 [View article]
    The production capacity is substantial - which if no strikes, is likely to keep market well supplied - qouted inventory numbers vary
    Feb 27, 2015. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Price Forecast For 2015 [View article]
    Benni - The relationship between oil and gold is not straight forward. Gold is a fear investment while oil is a "hope" (in terms of economy) investment, besides intrinsic fundamentals. The key to the scenario you alluded to is that there is a regime change in oil markets (because of oversupply). In that case average gold to oil ratio over last many years become irrelevant. The closest example for reference sake is oil to gold ratio from 1979 to 1994, when there was a regime change in oil markets after discovery of North Sea oil. If oil goes to $20 a barrel, which I do not see happening over an extended period, then follow the ratio from 1979 to 1994. I shall write separately about oil price, ceiling, floor and median levels in near, mediu and long terms
    Feb 12, 2015. 06:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Price Forecast For 2015 [View article]
    There is always a sentiment component which is effected by the fundamentals. thotdoc I read what you say and have lot of respect for that. That is the reason some investors have used G.O and Gold to SPX ratio as a see saw between optimism and pessimism. rkctech the ratios or relative values tend to show long term nature of balance between optimism and fear.Provided there is no regime change -
    Feb 12, 2015. 12:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is When The Bear Growls [View article]
    I looked through your past predictions about market outlook on seeking alpha and found out that you have been predicting crashes, bear market etc. since start of 2013, on a regular interval - Only if you keep saying the same thing - you may turn out right for once in a while. While, whether market corrects or not - you past track record does not give me confidence in what you imply in this article (not expressly say)
    Jun 20, 2014. 11:07 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp.: India Lowers Potash Import Price [View article]
    And the excess capacity in East Asia, Uralkali and Middle East, where the utilization rates (Middle East) has been in low 70s
    Apr 3, 2014. 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp.: India Lowers Potash Import Price [View article]
    The current weakness in fertilizer markets is not cyclical. Difficult for POT to match the cash cost per ton. Staying ability is above doubt. Should concentrate on retaining market share
    Apr 3, 2014. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Chicken Game' And Investment Opportunities In Ukrainian Crisis [View article]
    Thanks Zoinked
    Mar 7, 2014. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Chicken Game' And Investment Opportunities In Ukrainian Crisis [View article]
    Good luck
    Mar 4, 2014. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Controversy On Shale Gas Boom And Burst Explained [View article]
    Associated gas from wells in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait was burnt as flares till 1980s. Only after that they started selling to chemical producers like SABIC for 70 cents per mmbtu. So, it is possible to drill wells for wet gas and liquids
    Oct 31, 2012. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Price Reversal Only a Matter of Time [View article]
    Second recession in US on the basis of asset deflation is unlikely. China interest rate hikes is not intended to slightly cool domestic demand - and CBC has lot more tools at its disposal. Government spending at the expense of domestic spending is just one of them. Ethanol subsidy is being seriously questioned by US congress and in all likely hood 50 cents per gallon will face challenges by YE 2011, which should increase gasoline demand in the mix. China Yuan still have a crawling peg to US$, which gives it some insulation to US$ volatility. China is likely to buy for their third crude oil reserves of 327 million barrels as crude oil price get to US$80 level. Arab spring resurgence in fall of 2011 will bring in question almost 35% of global oil output. All this should be supportive of crude oil price and will pull it back up north of US$90 is a short haul.
    Aug 9, 2011. 11:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Invest in Crude Oil in Second-Half 2011 [View article]
    Jul 19, 2011. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Creating the Perfect Portfolio With Unsurprising Names [View article]
    With due respect to the claimed individuality, I gree with Rhianni. I see big overlaps in some of the percieved asset classes, which will obfuscate the investment strategy Iif there is one). Portfolio fails validity and I doubt that author understands diversification, its objective and means to achieve it.
    Jul 6, 2011. 01:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Forecast for Second Quarter 2011 [View article]
    Thanks for the oil drum
    Apr 16, 2011. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Safe Plays for Higher Oil if Saudi Arabia Is Next [View article]
    Middle East will remaqin volatile for coming few months. Only thing is that a further increase in crude oil price may being another recession - and obviously a fall of equity markets and commodities. Current economic situation may not be able to take a US$120 per barrel for a quarter. Consumer confidence data has already started showing that. This creates a ceiling crude oil price of somewhere between US$120 -140 per barrel beyond which investment thesis based on crude oil price and equity markets will not pan out - . As we are pretty near a goldilocks peak or beyond - the portolfio risk is higher than the potential reward at this stage.
    Mar 12, 2011. 06:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil at $200 a Barrel? Oil Output at Risk [View article]
    In some countries natural gas has become a transportation fuel of choice both because of price and fuel efficiency. I have driven nat gas cars myself
    Mar 4, 2011. 01:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment