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Ironman at Political Calculations

 
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  • The S&P 500 Before The Echo Event Ends [View article]
    We used to post our prediction track record (from 2008 to 2011):

    http://bit.ly/1u0u7TK

    We stopped keeping track when we stopped doing predictions and started doing forecasts instead. As for the accuracy of the forecasts, judge for yourself - here are our results for the first and second quarters of this year:

    http://bit.ly/1u0u7TN

    http://bit.ly/1u0u9Lw

    We haven't assembled the animation for the third quarter yet, but you can get the picture from the charts included in this article.
    Oct 14, 2014. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 Before The Echo Event Ends [View article]
    Those who can, do. Those who can't and who are upset by those who can, should consider the options listed here that explain why we can:

    http://bit.ly/1w5XkkR

    Good luck with that!
    Oct 14, 2014. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 Before The Echo Event Ends [View article]
    Yes and no - we have found that there is very little evidence of past stock prices influencing today's stock prices, however what we describe as the echo effect is something that specifically affects the accuracy of our forecasts, which is inherent in our use of historic stock price data as the base reference points from which we make our projections. It's only an issue when those historic prices were the result of factors other than the basic fundamental driver of stock prices and typical levels of noise, where they can skew off the accuracy of our forecasts by several percentage points.

    Even though that might be considered to be a small error, we've been working for nearly a year to work out how to re-obtain our usual higher level of accuracy when the echo effect is present in the data we use for our projections. (Unfortunately, SA's editors chopped out the links that take you through the full chain of our development work - you would need to visit our site to go through them, as well as the late-day updates from 13 October 2014.)
    Oct 14, 2014. 08:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Market Data Continues To Support The Bearish View [View article]
    That's a very good observation.

    For the data we use, perhaps a better measure of the overall state of the new housing market would be to multiply the median price of new homes sold by their number of sales, which would effectively tell us what the effective market capitalization of the new housing market is. That information then would tell us whether the market is really experiencing bull or bear conditions.
    Sep 5, 2014. 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Temporal Trends In U.S. Housing [View article]
    Since we've provided a link to the source data, you're more than welcome to go through that particular exercise yourself. It's not hard.
    Aug 28, 2014. 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Summer 2014 Snapshot Of Eroding Earnings Expectations For The S&P 500 [View article]
    The earnings forecast is straight from S&P. The original article at our site includes links to the source.
    Aug 22, 2014. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diverging Trends For Non-Farm Payroll And Total Employment [View article]
    If by "changing demographics and job and lifestyle preferences" you really mean the sudden development of a very strong motivation to replace the loss of income for doing nothing with the income from a suboptimal job, you're probably right.
    Jul 31, 2014. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diverging Trends For Non-Farm Payroll And Total Employment [View article]
    We have been tracking Illinois' jobs data specifically because that state is uniquely capable of reporting the work status of individuals who have previously received unemployment benefits (that's the other project that we hinted at in the article - the jobs data simply turned out to be interesting in and of itself.)
    Jul 31, 2014. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diverging Trends For Non-Farm Payroll And Total Employment [View article]
    Good question!

    In addition to the kind of employment tracked by the Establishment survey, the Household survey includes agricultural workers, self-employed workers whose businesses are unincorporated, unpaid family workers, and private household workers.

    Those are the kinds of jobs that have seen large seasonally-adjusted gains since December 2013 (although we can pretty much rule out any surge in the number agricultural workers, given the more severe than normal winter over much of the nation during the first quarter of 2014 - the other kinds of employment tracked by the Household survey but not by the Establishment survey that are the ones that saw the increases during this period.)

    And almost by definition, all new jobs that are created outside of established organizations would be considered to be "marginal".
    Jul 30, 2014. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Trend Shaping Up For U.S. Housing Prices? [View article]
    Aside from relatively "tight" inventories for land where new homes are being built, the cost of a median new home is high because builders have been targeting high income buyers coming out of the housing bust - the homes being built today tend to be considerably larger and include more "luxury" amenities than even before the housing bubble burst.

    We limited our discussion to just the most straightforward part of it because we wanted to test up a scenario that would give technical analysis it's best possible shot.
    Jul 15, 2014. 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Divergence From The Reverted Mean [View article]
    Answering your questions in order, two of which could have been answered by following links provided in the article:

    1. SF = "Scale Factor".
    2. Dividend futures.
    3. Quarter of expiration.

    Hope this helps!
    Jul 10, 2014. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Trend Shaping Up For U.S. Housing Prices? [View article]
    Happy to help. See:

    http://bit.ly/1sYrSFK

    As for your other comments (and those of others), since we've provided links to our data sources, you're welcome to create your own graphs showing the data either on logarithmic scales or after adjusting them for inflation or any other way you might choose. It's certainly not difficult, so knock yourselves out!
    Jul 2, 2014. 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When 'Reverting To The Mean' Will Happen [View article]
    Read closer. That's expected future trailing year dividends per share - we're using dividend futures.
    May 22, 2014. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What 'Reverting To The Mean' Means [View article]
    "Would you be willing to share your data?"

    Already have - follow the links in the article, which will take you to posts discussing our data sources and methodology. Also, we provide stock price and dividend data for the S&P 500 and its predecessor indices and components back to January 1871 here: http://tinyurl.com/ybayyx
    May 22, 2014. 08:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Wicked This Way Comes For The S&P 500 [View article]
    In the relative absence of noise, and assuming that investors maintain their forward looking focus upon 2014-Q3 in setting today's stock prices, we expect the value of the S&P 500 to fall near or near the range indicated. We never expect it to perfectly align with the midpoint of the range.
    May 5, 2014. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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