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  • Diverging Trends For Non-Farm Payroll And Total Employment [View article]
    If by "changing demographics and job and lifestyle preferences" you really mean the sudden development of a very strong motivation to replace the loss of income for doing nothing with the income from a suboptimal job, you're probably right.
    Jul 31 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diverging Trends For Non-Farm Payroll And Total Employment [View article]
    We have been tracking Illinois' jobs data specifically because that state is uniquely capable of reporting the work status of individuals who have previously received unemployment benefits (that's the other project that we hinted at in the article - the jobs data simply turned out to be interesting in and of itself.)
    Jul 31 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diverging Trends For Non-Farm Payroll And Total Employment [View article]
    Good question!

    In addition to the kind of employment tracked by the Establishment survey, the Household survey includes agricultural workers, self-employed workers whose businesses are unincorporated, unpaid family workers, and private household workers.

    Those are the kinds of jobs that have seen large seasonally-adjusted gains since December 2013 (although we can pretty much rule out any surge in the number agricultural workers, given the more severe than normal winter over much of the nation during the first quarter of 2014 - the other kinds of employment tracked by the Household survey but not by the Establishment survey that are the ones that saw the increases during this period.)

    And almost by definition, all new jobs that are created outside of established organizations would be considered to be "marginal".
    Jul 30 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Trend Shaping Up For U.S. Housing Prices? [View article]
    Aside from relatively "tight" inventories for land where new homes are being built, the cost of a median new home is high because builders have been targeting high income buyers coming out of the housing bust - the homes being built today tend to be considerably larger and include more "luxury" amenities than even before the housing bubble burst.

    We limited our discussion to just the most straightforward part of it because we wanted to test up a scenario that would give technical analysis it's best possible shot.
    Jul 15 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Divergence From The Reverted Mean [View article]
    Answering your questions in order, two of which could have been answered by following links provided in the article:

    1. SF = "Scale Factor".
    2. Dividend futures.
    3. Quarter of expiration.

    Hope this helps!
    Jul 10 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Trend Shaping Up For U.S. Housing Prices? [View article]
    Happy to help. See:

    http://bit.ly/1sYrSFK

    As for your other comments (and those of others), since we've provided links to our data sources, you're welcome to create your own graphs showing the data either on logarithmic scales or after adjusting them for inflation or any other way you might choose. It's certainly not difficult, so knock yourselves out!
    Jul 2 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When 'Reverting To The Mean' Will Happen [View article]
    Read closer. That's expected future trailing year dividends per share - we're using dividend futures.
    May 22 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What 'Reverting To The Mean' Means [View article]
    "Would you be willing to share your data?"

    Already have - follow the links in the article, which will take you to posts discussing our data sources and methodology. Also, we provide stock price and dividend data for the S&P 500 and its predecessor indices and components back to January 1871 here: http://tinyurl.com/ybayyx
    May 22 08:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Wicked This Way Comes For The S&P 500 [View article]
    In the relative absence of noise, and assuming that investors maintain their forward looking focus upon 2014-Q3 in setting today's stock prices, we expect the value of the S&P 500 to fall near or near the range indicated. We never expect it to perfectly align with the midpoint of the range.
    May 5 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Wicked This Way Comes For The S&P 500 [View article]
    enotes is a web site, which is accessible on all modern web browsers. They're telling you that your web browser is far out of date.
    May 5 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Further Withering Of Wind Power [View article]
    Bingo!
    May 5 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aftershocks In The S&P 500 [View article]
    We're happy to be wrong. Really. http://ow.ly/vMLUk
    Apr 14 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real GDP Forecasts And QE [View article]
    And then there were three....

    http://ow.ly/va6UB
    Mar 29 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 Behaving As Expected In The First Week Of 2014 [View article]
    May we refer to you the internet search engine "Google", which you might use to search for the term, the results of which will take you to our previous discussion of the event.

    Hope this helps!
    Mar 28 01:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Rational And Inefficient Noise Event [View article]
    Don't be silly. We can most certainly test our model - the main limitation is the expense involved to obtain statistically significant results. In fact, we began running a $200+ million test on Wednesday, 26 March 2014 (around midday - you should be able to look at a chart of the S&P to see approximately when the test began). So far, the results of the test are consistent with what theory would predict for the particular scenario involved, in which we've sought to deliberately split the forward-looking of attention of investors between 2014-Q3 (where they had been focused) and 2014-Q2.
    Mar 28 01:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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