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  • Murphy USA: A Low-Priced, Under-Followed Spin-Off With 45% Upside Potential [View article]
    Hey Robert, MUSA (the NEWCO) is debt free. I checked the Pro forma Jun 30 2013 consolidated balance sheet which is on page 183 of Murphy's August 8K filing. I'm using the column "Separation of MUSA". In fact MUSA has net cash of 58.5m.
    Sep 9 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Murphy USA: A Low-Priced, Under-Followed Spin-Off With 45% Upside Potential [View article]
    Hi, Where do u get an EV of $2411.15 from? Please confirm how you calculate this? Other than that, great article.
    Sep 9 07:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Haswell Release On June 3rd Could Be Huge [View article]
    Fantastic article written in layman's terms.
    Apr 30 04:50 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Following months of delays and amid rising costs, Exxon Mobil (XOM) has finally started output at its C$12.9B ($12.7B) Kearl oil sands project in Alberta in Canada. The facility will produce 110,000 bpd of "resource" in its initial phase this year and 4.6B barrels over the next four decades. Kearl is operated by Exxon unit Imperial Oil (IMO). (PR[View news story]
    http://bit.ly/ZYfTmZ
    Apr 29 03:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay Offers Investors Gross Returns Of Between 1.4% And 5% Over The Next 5 Years [View article]
    We are accounting for the impact of DFS/Paypal. Our eps estimates assume ROIC will grow by 2.5% per year for the next 5 years. This will bring ROIC to 25%. This is a very aggressive assumption. Ebay has never had a ROIC of 25%.

    Ebay's current valuation implies it will grow its Adjusted Free Cashflow by 7.3% forever. By contrast Google's current valuation implies it will grow its Adjusted Free Cashflow by 3.4% forever and Amazon's current valuation implies they will grow their Adjusted Free Cashflow by 9.7% forever.


    The numbers for Ebay...

    EV - 67848
    Adj. FCF - 2996
    WACC - 11.7%
    Implied Perpetual Growth Rate - 7.3%
    Apr 18 07:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Offers Investors An Annualized Gross Return Of Up To 25% Over The Next 5 Years [View article]
    The concern is that ROIC from historical acquisitions such as Skype (and any future acquisitions) might come in lower than expected dragging down overall ROIC.
    Apr 10 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Offers Investors An Annualized Gross Return Of Between 15-18% Over The Next 5 Years [View article]
    Dear Reader, Thank you for your comment.

    Cisco's P/E relative to the S&P 500 is 1 standard deviation (SD) below its 5 year average. Please note this has nothing to do with the stock price. It is a measure of relative valuation.

    In theory, the stock can still go up, even if its relative valuation fell to 2 standard deviations below the 5 year average. This could happen if 3 conditions were satisfied, (i) the P/E of Cisco stayed constant, (ii) the P/E of the S&P 500 Index rose higher and (iii) Cisco's EPS grows.
    Apr 10 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Offers Investors An Annualized Gross Return Of Up To 25% Over The Next 5 Years [View article]
    Dear Reader, Thank you for your comment. We completely agree. See attached link Seth Klarman (http://seekingalpha.co...)
    Apr 10 05:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Offers Investors An Annualized Gross Return Of Up To 25% Over The Next 5 Years [View article]
    Dear Reader, Thank you for your comment. Might we inquire as to when exactly you bought it at 29?
    Apr 10 05:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Offers Investors An Annualized Gross Return Of Between 0% And 15% Over The Next 5 Years [View article]
    It is not improbable that the stock may move by the degree you said if a larger dividend were announced. It is however unclear if this would result in long term stock price appreciation, which is our focus and was the emphasis of the article.
    Apr 9 01:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Imperial Oil: 5-Year Minimum Annual Gross Return Of 15%, Undervalued 17.9% Relative To Exxon [View article]
    We don't agree. The US will just buy less foreign oil. Also don't forget that IMO has the lowest lifting cost in the industry and if it wants to, it can sell its production into its own refineries.
    Apr 8 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Imperial Oil: 5-Year Minimum Annual Gross Return Of 15%, Undervalued 17.9% Relative To Exxon [View article]
    P/E = 9.1
    Apr 6 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Offers Investors An Annualized Gross Return Of Between 0% And 15% Over The Next 5 Years [View article]
    A doubling of the dividend would move us away from a 0% IRR, but it wouldn't get us to a 15% IRR. We don't really see how that nullifies anything we wrote.
    Apr 6 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Offers Investors An Annualized Gross Return Of Between 0% And 15% Over The Next 5 Years [View article]
    No that is not what we said. We said that "Assuming Apple continues to trade on a P/E of 9.8x trailing earnings.......all cash returned to shareholders (excluding the current small dividend), we are looking at 15.1% IRR over the next 5 years." We then went on to say "If you believe that Apple might launch a new blockbuster consumer product, you may get an even higher return than 15% but this is just pure speculation."
    Apr 6 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harley Davidson Offers Investors An Annualized Gross Return Of Between 16% And 20% Over The Next 5 Years [View article]
    Couple more points...Our forecast is for earnings to hit 6.64 in 5 years (2018). That's 12 years since HOG's last high of 3.93 EPS and a stock price of $75.87. 12 years of inflation at 2.5% should drive EPS higher by 35%. 12 years of buying back stock at an average rate of 2.8% per year would increase EPS by another 39%. So together you would expect a compounded 87.7% higher EPS from inflation and buybacks when comparing 2006 to 2018. That would imply EPS of 7.37.
    Apr 5 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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