Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Israel's Financial Expert  

View Israel's Financial Expert's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Israel's Imminent Housing Market Crash [View article]
    It didn't happen because bubbles pop long after the bears think it will.

    :)

    besides that, the crisis in Europe last year stopped the rate hiking for a while. But now we are back to early 2009 rates, so prices need to adjust to 2009 levels.

    Beside that we have the new regulation that prohibits prime loans so since May 2011 I think it is safe to say that real estate in Israel has peakd.

    I am still holding on to my shorts.
    Jun 16, 2011. 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How the Free Market Can Solve the World's Water Crisis [View article]
    I didn't talk about a world market for water. I talked about a local one. Second, I didn't write about importing water. What can be imported are corps that need a lot of water to be grown
    Jul 5, 2010. 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Coming Depression and the Peak Of Deflation [View article]
    No. I am not calling for a long term decline in commodity prices. My call is for a Yo-Yo depression. Spikes of high inflation and then deflation.
    Just because I am from Israel you assume I have certain political views.(Please read my views at israelfinancialexpert....) I don't think Israel will or should attack Iran.
    But a war scenario is worth mentioning, you are right. I can't write about everything in one article.
    If it was in the interest of the United States to have high oil prices Q.E would been implemented right now.
    The Fed is a bank and it doesn't want to self destruct. If people loose confidence in paper money they are finished. We came very close to that in 2008. I think they are afraid and that is why they stopped the money printing.
    And one more thing- if we get high oil prices in a deflationary environment, where the fed is not printing it will act like a rate hike. It will not cause inflation. Money printing causes inflation, not oil price hike. Oil production fell in 1930's by 30%, and so did food prices. But prices went down. In deflation demand falls faster than supply.
    Jul 1, 2010. 04:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Coming Depression and the Peak Of Deflation [View article]
    Thank You! Everybody that read my last post thought I was crazy saying China will crash. It nice to see that some do agree with me...
    Jun 30, 2010. 08:41 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Profit From the Coming Collapse of China [View article]
    Well you could have said the same thing about real estate in the U.S, Spain and Eastern Europe. That is the nature of bubbles, everybody is invested in them.
    Jun 22, 2010. 01:20 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Profit From the Coming Collapse of China [View article]
    Well, you could have said the same thing about real-estate in the U.S, Eastern Europe and Spain a few years back. It is not the job of businesses men to be economists they follow the money and when the music stop they will move to a different place.
    No doubt that there is a lot of optimism about China, especially in the West, but that is nature of bubbles. I nobody was invested their couldn't have been a bubble. So what you are saying basically that their can't be any economic bubbles since very smart people are invested in them. History has enough examples to prove you wrong
    Jun 22, 2010. 01:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Profit From the Coming Collapse of China [View article]
    I am not saying that their was not a boom in China in last 10 years. But you can look at what you see know in the streets because these are lagging indicators. It is like saying in 2005 that all restaurants in Florida are packed and people are buying like crazy in malls. You have to ask what is engine of that consumption growth and if it is sustainable and I think it is not
    Jun 22, 2010. 01:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Profit From the Coming Collapse of China [View article]
    Agree 100%
    Jun 22, 2010. 01:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Profit From the Coming Collapse of China [View article]
    Thank You. I think China has a great long term potential but only if their is a regime change or if the regime adapts and let's free market sources do the job and give the people more rights.
    But we will not be here in 10-20 years to talk about it right? :)
    Jun 22, 2010. 01:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Profit From the Coming Collapse of China [View article]
    If you buy coins or gold bars you will also pay a premium of between 5%-7%. And given that it is much easier to sell I think it's fair. I don't know much about NAV but maybe you are right
    Jun 21, 2010. 06:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Profit From the Coming Collapse of China [View article]
    China is growing it's money supply by 30% and the government did a stimulus of 700 billion, like the size of the American one only in an economy that much smaller. If they continue in that path they will get not inflation but hyperinflation. M2 is already 8 trillion dollars in China, like in the U.S. You simply can't grow an economy that way. If they stop they will get deflation. That is the nature of economics, it works like a snow ball. The same thing happened in the U.S in 2008, the could have continued to grow credit at an accelerating rate but then we would have had a giant inflation problem( as the 147$ oil signaled), but when credit stopped growing we got a deflationary shock.
    World demand is weak. So in theory there shouldn't be wage inflation in China. But we here again and again about wages rising 30-50% all around. That is caused by the massive stimulus and money printing of the government. The can't keep unemployment low simply by printing money and giving it to speculators to buy and build houses.
    A China crash doesn't tie directly to Australia's housing bubble. Their bubble will pop no matter what. But if China crashes the ETF will fall much more since the commodity producers will fall hard and the currency will weaken, like what happened in late 2008.
    Regarding gold- I think it will maintain it's purchasing power no matter what. Like it did in the big deflationary crash of 2008(compared to other assets gained purchasing power). Can it fall? Sure. It can even a lot and more then most people think. But I use it as a hedge. If it will fall my shorts will more then compensate.
    Investments is not a religion, and I don't regard myself as an "inflationist" or a "deflationist". I have no idea how crazy politicians and central banks will be and perhaps we could have hyperinflation in some countries and deflation in others like what happened in the 1930's. So I use gold as a hedge against crazy money printing by central banks. And anyway, I am sure I would be able to buy much more real estate, stocks, and other commodities with my gold even if the nominal price will fall. In gold terms I am sure we will have deflation.
    Jun 21, 2010. 06:54 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Profit From the Coming Collapse of China [View article]
    Finally, someone with some common sense!
    I began to think I was crazy. I think all of the emerging markets are in trouble because they don't have strong enough domestic demand, and they have massive inflationary problems.
    After saying that, I think that after China crashes, and given the world doesn't become protectionist India could be a great investment. But in the short term I am very bearish.
    Jun 21, 2010. 06:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Profit From the Coming Collapse of China [View article]
    Ok, well you think that the believe the numbers of the government and don't believe the stock market. I believe the stock market and don't believe the government. But we will wait and see, I will be more than happy to admit that I am wrong.
    Jun 21, 2010. 06:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Profit From the Coming Collapse of China [View article]
    The people that lost money in the meantime where investors in China. It's market topped in August and I made a lot of money shorting their ETF.
    If you want facts I wrote enough in the past 6 months. You can find a summary in 50 fact about China's Bubble Economy:
    israelfinancialexpert....
    But in short, let me put it this way, an economy grows by increasing the productive capacity of it's citizens, and by making high quality products. You can't get rich by making shoes.(Although the owner of the factory can). You can't have a growth based on domestic demand when the works make such low salaries. And you can't raise the wages artificially, they need to be able to produce high quality products. If you try to do that artificially, like China did, you get massive malinvestments all around the economy that then need to be liquidated
    Jun 21, 2010. 05:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Profit From the Coming Collapse of China [View article]
    We will wait and see. I think they have 1 year Max
    Jun 21, 2010. 05:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
27 Comments
52 Likes