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Ivan Jimenez
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  • Big Holes On The UNXL Earnings Call

    There were big holes in the conference call.
    The word yield was not even mentioned and no one even asked.
    The people asking the questions were the usual UNXL pumpers Willians Financial and Craig Hallum.

    The hardest question was ask by Ladenburg:

    Ladenburg Q. "if you had to deliver touch sensors like next week, could you meet their quality demands in your opinion?"
    Reed A. "We are not finished with the inline test relative to electrical test."

    Prior they have talked about concerns that the inline testing could damage the delicate sensor it seems that they have not solved this issue. This is a problem with UniBoss whereas XSense uses multilayer coating with a Adherent Layer that works like a primer to ensure that the ink sticks in and will not fall off. Also UniPixel has mentioned problems with having the resin stick to the film that they said they partially solved by changing films.

    Ladenburg Q. "Does the product meet the requirements?"

    Reed A. "Electrically and from ability to put it together, transmission, all the things that you look for in a sensor. Yes."

    There is a big hole in this answer because he specified certain property and said Yes referring to those properties but: What about other properties? He said "yes" but it was a conditional "yes". We already know that the inline testing have not been set up so they have no way indentify if they have a good sensor.

    Prototypes

    About the test units they said:

    "These prototypes were evaluated by our PC partner and downstream conversion partners as a part of an ongoing prototype approval process."

    That means they are not qualified yet... "on going process" can mean anything like "we had to built new ones" and "our last batch didn't work".

    Also: "As previously reported, due to a push out of the production release date, the PC platform center design was changed and we are submitting new centers for evaluation and approval."

    For some reason UniPixel had to change the design. I don't buy that it was because of the PC side but I believe it was because UniBoss didn't meet specs. I wouldn't be surprised in UniPixel has moved to a bigger micron size. UniPixel is so proud of their 6 micron process that they didn't mentioned it once.

    Conclusion

    People hear what they want to hear. I have seen the UniPixel arguments and I have seen the holes. The red flags are there if people want to see them that's up to them. UniPixel is not ready for production and they might never be.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: I have never shorted UNXL. I'm not that type of investor. I'm long ATML. I believe that Neonode is a bigger treat to Atmel than what UniPixel will ever be. I don't believe UniBoss will ever be a viable product. Maybe they have a future in printed electronics but that's all.

    Tags: UNXL, ATML
    Aug 10 7:44 AM | Link | 8 Comments
  • Vote Of Non-Confidence For UNXL

    Investors have given a vote of non-confidence to UniPixel and Aristide Capital explained why. Basically they said one thing and then another thing raising questions.

    UniPixel what is your yield?

    Is it 70% or are you trying to reach 70% or in theory it should be 70%?

    How you know what yield are you going to have if you are not in mass-production yet?

    What a dilemma!

    This is what I don't get!

    Why spend so much money in Kodak and Asian tours if you can't get your pilot line right?

    If it was me I would get my pilot line working and producing and then after I got all the bugs work out I would go big.

    But UniPixel wants to go big first and then start mass-production.

    If it was me I would take care of my costumer that paid me 5 million to get a production line ready.

    Why look for new costumers when you haven't even taken care of your first costumer?

    Little White Lies

    There was once a little Texas company that had a technology to make small copper lines. Their yields were not good but the company was going bankrupt so they said. Lets say that we can mass-produce this thing. I think that with some money we can make it work. So they went and got 5 million from Dell. They had samples and that was all what they needed to make the deal go through. Now they had some money and lots of hype about their "amazing" technology that will revolutionize the industry.

    Then they realised "We can't get this working. Yields are all bad" Petrovich boy said. And Killion boy said "I got an idea lets get with Kodak I know they can help us get this done right." Lets do a public offering and raise millions. I know that with Kodak and a few millions we can get this working." And they did and the little white lie grew and even Intel got interested and invited them to China for a tour and Killion proudly demonstrated its amazing 50 sensors and everyone was amaze. And then SYNA got interested and said "Oh my, what an amazing technology".

    Then the word got out and investors started to pour in money. Families invested their life savings in this amazing stock and one day the analyst realised they are being had and pulled the carped and lots of innocent people got margin calls and lost everything.

    Lesson to Learn

    I hope I'm wrong and UniPixel goes into mass production and takes over the market but I think they are full of it. I think this company will fail and it will go bankrupt.

    I know you pixies think that this is a big plot to lower UNXL price so shorts can get on-board but no. The market has spoken and given a big vote of non-confidence to UNXL.

    Sorry for your lost.

    Tags: UNXL
    May 31 6:24 AM | Link | 6 Comments
  • XSense Capacity For 2013

    Per Carclo, Atmel will have to the capacity to built 1 billion of 3.1" touch sensor a year. That's if both the new Colorado facility and the new Cambridge facility are operational on schedule. Both Colorado and new Cambridge were scheduled to be on line this month (May).

    "CIT supplies the photosensitive film for all sensor production lines. We have sufficient film capacity for the current Cambridge pilot line and the initial Colorado line. We have designed and ordered a high speed coating line which will be installed in the new Cambridge production facility - this line will have the capability to produce film for up to half a billion 3.1 inch screens. Additionally, to guarantee supply continuity, Atmel has agreed to fund a duplicate coating line which will be installed in Colorado, and will be operated by CIT as an active second source. We will therefore have a surge capacity available in 2013 for up to 1 billion screens per annum."

    Carclo plc - Final Results - 12 June 2012

    How much is 1 billion 3.1" sensor in sq Ft?

    A 3.1" sensor = 4.6 sq in (4.601816896618025)

    4.6 sq in * 1 Billion = 4.6 Billion sq in

    4.6 Billion sq in / 144 = 31,944,444 sq ft a year

    31,944,444 sq ft / 12 = 2,662,037 sq ft a month

    Disclosure: I am long ATML.

    Tags: ATML, UNXL
    May 20 4:43 PM | Link | Comment!
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