Seeking Alpha

Ivan Kitov

 
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  • Predicting Stock Prices: JPMorgan Chase Has Growth Potential
    Wed, Apr. 9 XLF, VFH, IYF 1 Comment

    Summary

    • We have developed a statistically reliable share price model for JPM based on the consumer price index of rent of primary residence and index of food away from home.
    • With the current trends in the defining indices the estimated model foresees an extended period of stock price growth.
    • The model standard error is $2.38 since July 2003, which corresponds to the level of inter-month price fluctuations.
  • Predicting Stock Prices: ACE Limited May Continue Growth
    Tue, Apr. 8 BEN, GS, IVZ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • We have developed a statistically reliable share price model for ACE Limited based on consumer price index of medical professional services and index of pets, pet goods and services.
    • With the current trends in the defining indices the estimated model foresees an extended period of stock price growth.
    • The model standard error is $2.9 since July 2003 that corresponds to the level of inter-month price fluctuations.
  • Predicting Share Price: Loews Corporation May Grow To $59 In June
    Mon, Apr. 7 L 3 Comments

    Summary

    • We have developed a statistically reliable share price model for Loews Corporation based on the consumer price index of transportation services and the index of food.
    • The model foresees a positive correction to $59 in June 2014.
    • The model standard error is $2.60 since July 2003 that corresponds to the level of inter-month price fluctuations.
  • Modeling Share Prices: Bank Of America To Hold
    Mon, Apr. 7 BAC 6 Comments

    Summary

    • We have developed a statistically reliable share price model for Bank of America based on the consumer price index of food at home and the index of rent of shelter.
    • The model does foresee significant price changes in April 2014.
    • The model standard error is $2.86 since July 2003, that corresponds to the level of intermonth price fluctuations.
  • Modeling Stock Prices: Cummins Inc. May Fall To $130
    Sun, Apr. 6 CMI 11 Comments

    Summary

    • We have developed a statistically reliable share price model for Cummins based on the consumer price index of motor fuel and the index household furnishing and operations.
    • The model foresees a negative correction to $130 in May 2014.
    • The model standard error is $7.70 since July 2003 that corresponds to the level of inter-month price fluctuations.
  • Predicting Share Prices: Invesco Ltd. May Fall To $35 In May
    Thu, Apr. 3 IVZ Comment!

    Summary

    • We have developed a statistically reliable share price model for Invesco Ltd. based on the consumer price index of appliances and the index of pets, pet products and services.
    • The model does not exclude a negative correction to $35 in May 2014.
    • The model standard error is $2.05 since July 2003, that corresponds to the level of intermonth price fluctuations.
  • Predicting Stock Prices: Textron May Grow To $45 In May
    Wed, Apr. 2 TXT 6 Comments

    Summary

    • We have developed a statistically reliable share price model for Textron based on the consumer price index of transportation services and the index of pets, pet products and services.
    • The model foresees a positive correction to $45 in May 2014.
    • The model standard error is $4.20 since July 2003, that corresponds to the level of inter-month price fluctuations.
  • Predicting Share Prices: Texas Instruments To Hold
    Wed, Apr. 2 TXN 3 Comments

    Summary

    • We have developed a statistically reliable share price model for Texas Instruments as based on consumer price index of nondurable goods and the index of pets, pet products and services.
    • The model does not predict big changes in the next two months.
    • The model standard error is $2.38 since July 2003 that corresponds to the level of intermonth price fluctuations.
  • Modeling Share Price: A Negative Correction For Lincoln National Corporation Is Not Excluded
    Tue, Apr. 1 MS, KBWI, LNC 1 Comment

    Summary

    • We have developed a statistically reliable share price model for Lincoln National Corporation as based on consumer price indices of food away from home and owner's equivalent rent of residence.
    • The model does not exclude a negative correction in 2014.
    • The model standard error is $4.12 since July 2003 that corresponds to the level of intermonth price fluctuations.
  • Modeling Share Prices: JDS Uniphase To Hold
    Tue, Apr. 1 JDSU 2 Comments

    Summary

    • We have developed a share price model for JDS Uniphase as based on consumer price index of postage and delivery services together with index of all items less energy.
    • The JDSU price follows the index of postage and delivery services.
    • The model standard error is $3.38 since July 2003 that corresponds to the level of intermonth price fluctuations.
  • Modeling Share Prices: TECO Energy To Hold
    Mon, Mar. 31 TE Comment!

    Summary

    • We have developed a statistically reliable share price model for TECO Energy as based on consumer price indices of energy and recreation.
    • The model shows that TECO Energy price follows the energy price.
    • The model standard error is $0.78 since July 2003 that corresponds to the level of intermonth price fluctuations.
  • Modeling Share Prices: Morgan Stanley May Continue Growth
    Wed, Mar. 26 MS Comment!

    Summary

    • We have developed a statistically reliable share price model for Morgan Stanley as based on consumer price indices of food and rent of residence.
    • The model does not exclude further price increase in 2014.
    • The model standard error is $3.35 since July 2003 that corresponds to the level of intermonth price fluctuations.
  • Predicting Share Prices: Goldman Sachs Group May Rise To $180-$200 Per Share In April
    Wed, Mar. 26 GS 1 Comment

    Summary

    • We have developed a statistically reliable share price model for Goldman Sachs as based on consumer price indices.
    • The model predicts the price increase to $180 to $200 in April 2014.
    • The model standard error is $14.25 and corresponds to the level of inter-month price fluctuations.
  • The Price Of Steel And Iron Will Likely Fall
    Sun, Mar. 23 SLX 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Price of iron and steel has been decreasing since 2012.
    • There is a linear time trend in the difference between producer price index of iron and steel and the headline PPI allowing long-term forecast.
    • The fall in iron and steel price will likely extend into 2016/2017 with possible short-term fluctuations.
  • Predicting Share Price: Franklin Resources To Grow
    Sun, Mar. 23 BEN Comment!

    Summary

    • We have developed a robust share price model for Franklin Resources as based on consumer price indices.
    • The model predicts the price increase to $60 in the first half of 2014.
    • The model uncertainty corresponds to the level of intermonth price fluctuations.
  • Modeling Share Prices: Advanced Micro Devices
    Fri, Mar. 21 AMD 66 Comments

    Summary

    • We have developed a robust share price model for Advanced Micro Devices as based on consumer price indices.
    • The model predicts no price increase in 2014.
    • The model uncertainty corresponds to the level of intermonth price fluctuations.
  • Predicting Share Prices: Avon Products May Rise By 50%
    Wed, Mar. 19 AVP 5 Comments

    Summary

    • We have developed a robust share price model for Avon Products as based on consumer price indices.
    • The model predicts 50% price increase in the first half of 2014.
    • The model uncertainty corresponds to the level of intermonth price fluctuations.
  • Share Price Modeling: Computer Sciences Corporation
    Wed, Mar. 19 CSC Comment!

    Summary

    • We have developed a robust share price model for Computer Sciences Corporation based on consumer price indices.
    • The model predicts further increase in CSC price.
    • The model uncertainty corresponds to the level of intermonth price fluctuations.
  • On Further Fall In Copper Price
    Tue, Mar. 11 JJC, CPER, CUPM 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of copper will likely keep falling.
    • The fall horizon is two years.
    • The price level will return to levels seen in 2005.
  • Sustainable Linear Trends In CPI And Core CPI
    Mon, Mar. 10 SPY, DIA, QQQ 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Consumer prices of energy and food are growing at a lower rate than the headline CPI.
    • This trend started in 2011.
    • This trend will be observed for another 10 years.
  • The Headline And The Core Consumer Price Index
    Dec. 23, 2012 6 Comments
  • The Era Of Low Energy Prices
    Dec. 19, 2012 OIL 1 Comment
  • 3 Basic Scenarios Of The Food Price Evolution
    Dec. 18, 2012 Comment!
  • The Housing CPI Will Likely Continue Falling For The Rest Of The Decade
    Dec. 18, 2012 XHB, REZ, ITB 3 Comments
  • As Predicted, The PPI Of Steel And Iron Has Been Declining
    Dec. 17, 2012 SLX, PSTL Comment!
  • Successfully Sold The S&P 500 Index
    Dec. 15, 2012 SPY 18 Comments
  • The Rate Of Unemployment May Fall Below 6% In A Year
    Dec. 9, 2012 28 Comments
  • S&P 500 In December 2012
    Dec. 3, 2012 SPY 8 Comments
  • Franklin Resources' Rally Is Approaching Its Peak
    Nov. 26, 2012 BEN 1 Comment
  • Goldman Sachs May Rise To $133 In January 2013
    Nov. 26, 2012 GS 3 Comments
  • TECO Energy: No Big Change Expected
    Nov. 23, 2012 TE 4 Comments
  • Prudential Financial May Rise To $64 In January 2013
    Nov. 22, 2012 PRU 1 Comment