The Headline And The Core Consumer Price Index [View article]
I've published a few papers on real GDP and inflation which also claim higher inflation in the USA. On the other hand, I should support the BEA and BLS in their measurements. They are doing an important job when collecting data according to clear rules and guidelines. This is the only source of sound information we have. You may take a look at my papers: http://bit.ly/WJJk0q http://bit.ly/VpvB8f
Successfully Sold The S&P 500 Index [View article]
I will stop following the past trajectory when deviation is too large. My analysis shows that the S&P 500 index follows the growth in real GDP - http://seekingalpha.co.... Real GDP is driven by a specific age population and the 2010 census indicates a possibility of recession in 2013 - http://seekingalpha.co.... This suggests the index to go down in 2013 as the blue curve in Figure 1 shows. I do not find standard market terminology useful: "bear market" means nothing for me. The market is not driven by random decisions. It is driven by the age pyramid.
The Rate Of Unemployment May Fall Below 6% In A Year [View article]
But you cannot ignore the fact that a much larger portion of population can afford college now compared to the time when MCD salary was enough to pay off. Or you want to deny their right to get education in order to pay $35 for rent?
The Rate Of Unemployment May Fall Below 6% In A Year [View article]
You were lucky that your father was able to give college education to children. Only 35% were enrolled in 1967. In 2011, this figure is 50% and more farthers are lucky to give college education to their children. It's better time now. and it was poor time for more people in 1967.
The Rate Of Unemployment May Fall Below 6% In A Year [View article]
Please notice that the portion of employed people reached the current (2012) level only around 1980. Before, a lower share of working age people had jobs than now.
The Rate Of Unemployment May Fall Below 6% In A Year [View article]
We had predicted the fall to 64% in the rate of participation in labor force two years before it actually realized:
Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2008). The Driving Force of Labor Force Participation in Developed Countries, Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. III(3(5)_Fall), pp. 203-222. http://bit.ly/1238tTX
My first plan was to buy S&P 500 at 1325 in May 2012 and to sell at 1550 in 2013. This plan would give me approximately 15%. If to follow ups and downs, one can use multiplication. In May 100%, in September 110%, in December 110%*1.05=115%. In October 2013 115%*1.1= 126.5%. (I do not mention another two expected minima in 2013 which are potentially profitable.) If not to sell at 1430-1450 in Decemeber, one gets 110%*1.1=1.21% in 2013. The difference might be 6%.
This empirical approach is a brand new and it has missed the monorgaph by two years. I have no scientific reason to assume the current S&P 500 trajectory to repeat that in the past. just an assumption. On the other hand, my scientific expirience/intuition cries that two curves should never repeat each other when not driven by similar forces. I would wait before the turn in 2013 for a more conclusive discussion.
Thank you for the question. In this thread, i just imply that the S&P 500 goes the same trajectory as in the past. This approach is not better or worse than any other based on the past statistics. All moves are documented weeks before I actually buy or sell.
Pitney Bowes' Share Price May Continue Its Long-Term Fall [View article]
I am a physicist. we all want to decompose something into pieces. This is a model, which does not contradict my understanding of physics, just describes. You may take it as worthless of meaningful.
An Updated Model Of Loews' Share Price: A Large Positive Correction Is Expected [View article]
Thank you for the deep consideration. I do provide predictions at a several month horizon where available. Because the model uses the monthly closing prices and CPIs no daily estimates are possible. I have quite a few metrics to measure the performance of the model as published in my book http://amzn.to/wmO6rS but this is beyond the interest of the broader readership on SA and editors request not to give too many stat and math details.
Pitney Bowes' Share Price May Continue Its Long-Term Fall [View article]
What I've learned from the hard sciences is "no correlation imply no causation". This is opposite in economics and finances, where so called scientists invent economic and pricing models for remote stars. The to-big-to-fall had all excellent indicators one minute before collapse and this was the reason of the biggest investors' loss. Why don't you learn this lesson?
The Headline And The Core Consumer Price Index [View article]
You may take a look at my papers:
http://bit.ly/WJJk0q
http://bit.ly/VpvB8f
Successfully Sold The S&P 500 Index [View article]
I do not find standard market terminology useful: "bear market" means nothing for me. The market is not driven by random decisions. It is driven by the age pyramid.
Successfully Sold The S&P 500 Index [View article]
The Rate Of Unemployment May Fall Below 6% In A Year [View article]
The Rate Of Unemployment May Fall Below 6% In A Year [View article]
The Rate Of Unemployment May Fall Below 6% In A Year [View article]
The Rate Of Unemployment May Fall Below 6% In A Year [View article]
The Rate Of Unemployment May Fall Below 6% In A Year [View article]
Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2008). The Driving Force of Labor Force Participation in Developed Countries, Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. III(3(5)_Fall), pp. 203-222. http://bit.ly/1238tTX
Trends And Fluctuations In The Price Of Crude Oil And Motor Fuel [View article]
S&P 500 In December 2012 [View article]
S&P 500 In December 2012 [View article]
S&P 500 In December 2012 [View article]
Pitney Bowes' Share Price May Continue Its Long-Term Fall [View article]
An Updated Model Of Loews' Share Price: A Large Positive Correction Is Expected [View article]
but this is beyond the interest of the broader readership on SA and editors request not to give too many stat and math details.
Pitney Bowes' Share Price May Continue Its Long-Term Fall [View article]