Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Ivan Kitov  

View Ivan Kitov's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Predicting Gold Ore's Price [View article]
    There are several references in the end of the article on how we found the period after 2012 to be a deflationary one.
    take a look at Japan, teh US just repeat its history. Simple like that.

    On Jun 25 09:50 AM Mayer Amschel Rothschild wrote:

    > Zero inflation for ten years is an awfully big assumption to base
    > a forecast on.
    Jun 25, 2009. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Predict Prices of Commodities [View article]
    For gold is my article at Seeking Alpha

    For copper - please use the case of gold as a template, just download data from

    I believe that it is easy and you will be the first to know in the whole

    On Jun 25 09:45 AM Maxe Paul wrote:

    > Ok nice research, but can you give me caveman forecast for gold and
    > copper? Up or down?
    Jun 25, 2009. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Modeling Select S&P 500 Share Prices [View article]
    here is the prediction forr energy companies.

    For other industries it is coming, but one can repeat my analysis for any company easily, just download relevant data from and
    Use my analysis is a template

    On Jun 25 09:42 AM Gravity404 wrote:

    > Ivan -- I didn't see any predictions???
    > "If this tendency will continue in the future, one should have a
    > good reason when investing into HAL. "
    > All due respect, this is not a prediction. <If it goes up in the
    > future, then it will be a good investment>
    Jun 25, 2009. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Predict Prices of Commodities [View article]
    I would recommend my other article. It demonstrates
    that 2008 was not out of predcition.

    We did a good forecast of the break in the end of 2007http://ideas.repec...

    On Jun 25 08:27 AM Bruce Krasting wrote:

    > Interesting. You quants amaze me.
    > I am an old guy and have been looking at things that can predict
    > the future for a long time. I found a few, maybe you have too. In
    > my experience they all blow up. They work for a while. You commit
    > time and capital and then one day it just blows up. Then you are
    > faced with tough choices. Do you continue with reliance on a quantitative
    > approach or do you just can it and cut the losses that have occurred.
    > 2008 was the most recent reminder regarding predictability.
    > Mohamed said, "You can not foretell the future". In my experience
    > he is right.
    Jun 25, 2009. 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Modeling Select S&P 500 Share Prices [View article]
    I am happy to make picture clare for interested people. Hopefully, the near future validates the model and prediction, which was actually made in March.

    I was a professor of geophysics, by position.

    On Jun 25 09:06 AM Gravity404 wrote:

    > I saw this movie before. It was called Pi.
    > Oh, BTW, the main character was crazy the whole time.
    > I have a handful of stocks mentioned in the article; most of which
    > I have had for many years. So thanks for giving me a clear picture
    > of the past.
    > Ivan must be a professor or is working on a dissertation...
    Jun 25, 2009. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Gold Ore's Price [View article]
    Two answers:
    - it works well as it is.
    - better is an enemy of good, CPI is to volatile - food and energy introduce unnecessary bias.

    On Jun 25 07:20 AM DONE_SONZ wrote:

    > Why not throw CPI into the mix?
    Jun 25, 2009. 07:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2009 June 25 - Gold [View instapost]
    I would agree with this analysis and prediction. See the same downward trend in the short- and long-run.
    Jun 25, 2009. 04:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Oil and Gas Prices: 2009-2016 [View article]
    I do not deny any possible mechanism behind the linear trends. Moreover, I would refrain commenting on any of them because this is beyond my quantitative empirical relation. But the realtion will be broken at some point in the future. This is inevitable. Let's wait, but before it fails it works, and one could use it for various purposes.

    On Jun 24 09:59 PM Mayer Amschel Rothschild wrote:

    > Ivan,
    > I suppose what I'm saying is that, when the banking system and economy
    > function normally, core CPI and headline CPI will be very closely
    > related. However, since core CPI measures finished goods and oil
    > is a crude good, I believe that core CPI follows trends that fuel
    > costs do since fuel costs affect every level of production and distribution,
    > thus resulting in the correlation that your graphs show. When global
    > credit markets, crude good prices, and the dollar all start behaving
    > differently and more erratically than they have for the past 70 years,
    > it seems to me that this correlation will break down.
    > However, I'd like to say that I appreciate how thorough and straightforward
    > your article is.
    > On Jun 24 03:22 PM Ivan Kitov wrote:
    Jun 25, 2009. 02:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Oil and Gas Prices: 2009-2016 [View article]

    As a physicist, I should say that any physical law, even so-called fundamental ones, has its start and end. Nothing is infinite. So, you are right that the empirical relation we have reported will fail at some point, as it had not been working in the past. This is not to deny the existence of the relation here and now. One just has to observe and detect relevant "structural break".
    But, imagine that a new linear sustainable trend is emerging right now and will exists during the next five to ten years. Will it change the oil market behavior? Will it change investors behavor? And so on.
    Sincerely, if you would know the trend between 2002 and 2008 in 2003, would you buy some more XOM, COP or DVN?
    Some people did buy.
    Jun 25, 2009. 02:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Oil and Gas Prices: 2009-2016 [View article]
    As a matter of fact, I do not predict CPI or core CPI. We use them as they are - straight from When you retrieve both time series and find their residual, you could reveal that the residual, i.e. the difference between the core CPI and headline CPI, has sustainable (linear) trends. This is an observation, not a model or assumption. This trend allows prediction of the difference at ba several-year horizon. When in the beginning of a linear trend one can see far beyond nowdays.
    At the same time, the difference between the core and headline CPI depends on oil price. Becasue the headline CPI contains energy price and the core CPI - does not contain. So, the evolution of the difference is related to the evolution of energy (i.e. oil) price.

    I did my best with langage, which is obviously a Russian-style, but in any case it is a scientific paper with a strict composition - data-model-results-fin... Can do nothing about it.

    On Jun 24 02:34 PM Mayer Amschel Rothschild wrote:

    > Ivan,
    > I find this a little hard to read and feel like it doesn't make any
    > sense to try to predict fuel prices from core CPI - yes, core CPI
    > is a more stable number to relate food or fuel prices to, but it's
    > not like a moving average. I think that predicting core CPI from
    > an oil-price moving average based on their normal relationship makes
    > more sense.
    Jun 24, 2009. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC on oil prices: "The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time."  [View news story]
    All commodities are different. There is no chance for metals, both iron and nonferrous including gold, to grow, but oil will continue to rise in the near future. - several months.
    Jun 24, 2009. 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Doesn’t Care If It’s IN-flation or DE-flation [View article]
    I would expect gold to decline at a five-year horizon
    Jun 24, 2009. 10:11 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble: Exposure to Improving Economy [View article]
    PG is a very reliable comapny with a great pricing power:

    It should start growing soon.
    Jun 23, 2009. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Price on the Rise: What Gives? [View article]
    I have a very simple quantitative answer about the force driving oil price, which I consider as an equivalent to the price idex for energy in the USA. (This might be not completely true statement but works well as a proxy.) It was found, tthat the index for energy deviates from the core CPI at a constant rate over years. So, one can observe trends in the difference between the core CPI and index for energy. The presence of linear trends allow to foresee the difference many years ahead, and thus calculate oil price. As a success story, the model predicted the rebound of oil price since December 2008 and now forecasts the price at $100 per barrel in the near future.
    Jun 23, 2009. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marathon, BP, Royal Dutch Shell Resume Uptrend [View article]
    Predicting share price of energy companies: June-September 2009
    We predict that XOM, COP, DVN, CVX, and HAL share prices will grow between June and September 2009 from $15 (HAL) to $30 (DVN). The prediction has a format of working paper. This post is the second step in a standard process - from idea to publication. The first step, fresh analysis, was presented in our previous post.
    Jun 23, 2009. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment