Predicting Oil and Gas Prices: 2009-2016 [View article]
As a matter of fact, I do not predict CPI or core CPI. We use them as they are - straight from bls.gov/data. When you retrieve both time series and find their residual, you could reveal that the residual, i.e. the difference between the core CPI and headline CPI, has sustainable (linear) trends. This is an observation, not a model or assumption. This trend allows prediction of the difference at ba several-year horizon. When in the beginning of a linear trend one can see far beyond nowdays. At the same time, the difference between the core and headline CPI depends on oil price. Becasue the headline CPI contains energy price and the core CPI - does not contain. So, the evolution of the difference is related to the evolution of energy (i.e. oil) price.
I did my best with langage, which is obviously a Russian-style, but in any case it is a scientific paper with a strict composition - data-model-results-fin... Can do nothing about it.
On Jun 24 02:34 PM Mayer Amschel Rothschild wrote:
> Ivan, > I find this a little hard to read and feel like it doesn't make any > sense to try to predict fuel prices from core CPI - yes, core CPI > is a more stable number to relate food or fuel prices to, but it's > not like a moving average. I think that predicting core CPI from > an oil-price moving average based on their normal relationship makes > more sense.
FOMC on oil prices: "The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time." [View news story]
All commodities are different. There is no chance for metals, both iron and nonferrous including gold, to grow, but oil will continue to rise in the near future. - several months.
I have a very simple quantitative answer about the force driving oil price, which I consider as an equivalent to the price idex for energy in the USA. (This might be not completely true statement but works well as a proxy.) It was found, tthat the index for energy deviates from the core CPI at a constant rate over years. So, one can observe trends in the difference between the core CPI and index for energy. The presence of linear trends allow to foresee the difference many years ahead, and thus calculate oil price. As a success story, the model predicted the rebound of oil price since December 2008 and now forecasts the price at $100 per barrel in the near future. mechonomic.blogspot.co...
Marathon, BP, Royal Dutch Shell Resume Uptrend [View article]
Predicting share price of energy companies: June-September 2009 We predict that XOM, COP, DVN, CVX, and HAL share prices will grow between June and September 2009 from $15 (HAL) to $30 (DVN). The prediction has a format of working paper. This post is the second step in a standard process - from idea to publication. The first step, fresh analysis, was presented in our previous post. mechonomic.blogspot.co...
My model shows that XOM, COP and others are set for a sprint in the summer months. I would expect XOM above $80 in September: mechonomic.blogspot.co...
Predicting Oil and Gas Prices: 2009-2016 [View article]
At the same time, the difference between the core and headline CPI depends on oil price. Becasue the headline CPI contains energy price and the core CPI - does not contain. So, the evolution of the difference is related to the evolution of energy (i.e. oil) price.
I did my best with langage, which is obviously a Russian-style, but in any case it is a scientific paper with a strict composition - data-model-results-fin... Can do nothing about it.
On Jun 24 02:34 PM Mayer Amschel Rothschild wrote:
> Ivan,
> I find this a little hard to read and feel like it doesn't make any
> sense to try to predict fuel prices from core CPI - yes, core CPI
> is a more stable number to relate food or fuel prices to, but it's
> not like a moving average. I think that predicting core CPI from
> an oil-price moving average based on their normal relationship makes
> more sense.
FOMC on oil prices: "The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time." [View news story]
Gold Doesn’t Care If It’s IN-flation or DE-flation [View article]
mechonomic.blogspot.co...
Procter & Gamble: Exposure to Improving Economy [View article]
mechonomic.blogspot.co...
It should start growing soon.
Oil Price on the Rise: What Gives? [View article]
mechonomic.blogspot.co...
Marathon, BP, Royal Dutch Shell Resume Uptrend [View article]
We predict that XOM, COP, DVN, CVX, and HAL share prices will grow between June and September 2009 from $15 (HAL) to $30 (DVN). The prediction has a format of working paper. This post is the second step in a standard process - from idea to publication. The first step, fresh analysis, was presented in our previous post.
mechonomic.blogspot.co...
Lagging U.S. Oil Stocks [View article]
mechonomic.blogspot.co...