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Ivan Kitov

 
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  • The Rate Of Unemployment May Fall Below 6% In A Year [View article]
    Please notice that the portion of employed people reached the current (2012) level only around 1980. Before, a lower share of working age people had jobs than now.
    Dec 11 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rate Of Unemployment May Fall Below 6% In A Year [View article]
    We had predicted the fall to 64% in the rate of participation in labor force two years before it actually realized:

    Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2008). The Driving Force of Labor Force Participation in Developed Countries, Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. III(3(5)_Fall), pp. 203-222. http://bit.ly/1238tTX
    Dec 10 12:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trends And Fluctuations In The Price Of Crude Oil And Motor Fuel [View article]
    Let's compare the outcome in 2016.
    Dec 9 03:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 In December 2012 [View article]
    My first plan was to buy S&P 500 at 1325 in May 2012 and to sell at 1550 in 2013. This plan would give me approximately 15%. If to follow ups and downs, one can use multiplication. In May 100%, in September 110%, in December 110%*1.05=115%. In October 2013 115%*1.1= 126.5%. (I do not mention another two expected minima in 2013 which are potentially profitable.) If not to sell at 1430-1450 in Decemeber, one gets 110%*1.1=1.21% in 2013. The difference might be 6%.
    Dec 5 05:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 In December 2012 [View article]
    This empirical approach is a brand new and it has missed the monorgaph by two years. I have no scientific reason to assume the current S&P 500 trajectory to repeat that in the past. just an assumption. On the other hand, my scientific expirience/intuition cries that two curves should never repeat each other when not driven by similar forces. I would wait before the turn in 2013 for a more conclusive discussion.
    Dec 4 02:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 In December 2012 [View article]
    Thank you for the question. In this thread, i just imply that the S&P 500 goes the same trajectory as in the past. This approach is not better or worse than any other based on the past statistics. All moves are documented weeks before I actually buy or sell.
    Dec 4 01:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pitney Bowes' Share Price May Continue Its Long-Term Fall [View article]
    I am a physicist. we all want to decompose something into pieces. This is a model, which does not contradict my understanding of physics, just describes. You may take it as worthless of meaningful.
    Nov 22 01:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Updated Model Of Loews' Share Price: A Large Positive Correction Is Expected [View article]
    Thank you for the deep consideration. I do provide predictions at a several month horizon where available. Because the model uses the monthly closing prices and CPIs no daily estimates are possible. I have quite a few metrics to measure the performance of the model as published in my book http://amzn.to/wmO6rS
    but this is beyond the interest of the broader readership on SA and editors request not to give too many stat and math details.
    Nov 21 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pitney Bowes' Share Price May Continue Its Long-Term Fall [View article]
    What I've learned from the hard sciences is "no correlation imply no causation". This is opposite in economics and finances, where so called scientists invent economic and pricing models for remote stars. The to-big-to-fall had all excellent indicators one minute before collapse and this was the reason of the biggest investors' loss. Why don't you learn this lesson?
    Nov 21 02:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan Chase Is Slightly Overvalued [View article]
    Thank you. This is obvious from the graph - deviations oscillate around the observed curves. Since the deviations always return to the prediction and have some overshoot one can use them to forecast the future behavior and thus profit.
    Nov 20 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan Chase Is Slightly Overvalued [View article]
    Please let me know the result of the DW test:

    3.870377
    3.166679
    0.641644
    -0.39661
    -0.607819
    -1.920338
    6.196041
    8.830315
    3.808186
    2.159657
    -2.755684
    -5.984444
    -3.056847
    -7.31407
    -0.546841
    1.812908
    0.143127
    1.433918
    0.996887
    1.566936
    3.059555
    1.44698
    -1.34565
    -5.925602
    -4.995777
    -3.191692
    -4.975498
    -0.764278
    -4.166195
    -0.707539
    0.331055
    2.234142
    0.470676
    -2.447483
    0.677227
    1.885338
    2.287201
    5.130318
    5.802433
    2.752346
    0.250519
    4.500126
    0.303522
    -5.09416
    -7.494883
    -6.110516
    -1.777319
    -2.693588
    3.739719
    7.415668
    -0.890961
    -0.84898
    -6.712128
    1.092751
    2.883404
    -1.459656
    -3.198467
    2.581608
    -1.613419
    -0.076557
    1.214943
    -0.151722
    -2.001404
    -2.20882
    1.372578
    3.102448
    1.170559
    -1.533558
    1.040188
    2.187466
    -0.340393
    -1.363091
    0.00087
    0.029018
    -0.539253
    1.567192
    -0.369396
    1.845798
    3.16449
    0.20406
    0.409012
    -0.897453
    -1.072052
    -1.209686
    -2.238756
    -3.344376
    -3.034288
    -3.1509
    -2.853682
    -1.248787
    -1.687588
    -2.08173
    0.328756
    -0.274115
    1.886095
    1.58358
    2.595238
    3.871035
    1.950575
    0.928917
    2.060591
    1.331121
    2.553934
    4.411682
    3.355795
    0.890322
    -0.748764
    -1.631191
    -0.234255
    -2.125572
    -1.875484
    -0.267595
    -0.978983
    Nov 20 02:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan Chase Is Slightly Overvalued [View article]
    R^2 = 0.72, but it is not biased when there exists cointegration between two I(1) processes (observed and predicted prices). We conduct unit root and cointegration tests as appropriate, but do not publish them because editors consider such stuff to complicated to SA readers.
    Nov 19 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa's Share Price May Fall To $5 In November-December Timeframe [View article]
    A good suggestion to check the price of Al to model AA. I'll try in the future.
    Nov 13 07:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy SPY [View instapost]
    this post is from May 2012. A similar post http://seekingalpha.co... was a week ago and showed that we were righ with the S&P 500.
    We predicted the turn in oil price in 2008, when it did not reach the peak yet. In May, we had the same long-term view and expected the price to fall. However, we always stress that oil price is highly volatile and may fluctuate around the long term trend that aloows for additional profit - http://seekingalpha.co...
    Currently, it is definitely on a downward short-term trend. It is not the best time to buy stocks with a positive link to oil price.
    Nov 6 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economists Ignore 33,000,000 Americans When Calculating Income Inequality [View article]
    We have published a relatively long paper on the link between the rate of unemployment (and employment/population ratio) and the rate of real GDP growth - http://bit.ly/Ua1JlY
    Theoretically, when extrapolated to very high and very low rate of GDP growth the rate of unemployment may reach zero or 100% (no work when no economy). In reality, I would not expect so high or low rates. In Spain, unemployment may touch 1/3 of labor force in 2013, however.
    Nov 4 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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211 Comments
98 Likes