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Ivan Kitov

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  • Time To Buy SPY [View instapost]
    Deflation is coming - oil falls and drives prices down. Formal deflation in 2012 will be clear in the GDP deflator
    Real economic growth is suppressed - might be around 1%.
    S&P 500 will be slowly growing to 1500 by the end of 2013. It does not grow much in 2012.
    May 24 03:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baker Hughes Is Likely Undervalued [View article]
    This is an article about HAL http://seekingalpha.co...
    I'll write about SLB as well. Actually, I have an idea compare all energy companies from S&P 500 in a larger article, likely more academic and published in the journal where Im an editor.
    Apr 17 02:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting The Future Of The Oracle Of Omaha [View article]
    The model has to be the same at least 6 to 12 months.When one or both defining CPIs change the previous model fails. The model also allows for time delays from 0 to 12 months in both directions.
    I am not aware about any logical underpinning of share prices which works. The evolution of share prices is usually considered as stochastic, i.e. these are pure innovations without any deterministics explanation.
    I assume that there is a CPI (might not be perfect) which contains the good and services influencing the share price. Then this CPI correlates with the share price more than anything else. Such CPIs do not exist in many cases. For some companies, the current CPI set does contain two CPIs which define the share during several months. For these companies I report models.
    At the same time I do not know how CPIs are converted into share prices. Investors might look at Dairy Queen or GEICOand judge on the overall performance of BRK.B (i.e. on good or poor management decisions). Thus , even a small change in their performance can change the share price.
    Apr 13 03:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting The Future Of The Oracle Of Omaha [View article]
    1. I do follow previously reported models (see my articles on COP). I report only those models which are stable during several months. So, they always has a history of several months. SOme models stay years (HPQ).
    2. The model where CPIs drive a share price is rather physics - prices drives price. For example, CPI of energy drives COP. Nobody denies this possibility.
    3. BRK,B just a hypothesis as any other model. It works where it works. Before it stops working it's worth something.
    Apr 12 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Looks To Be A Better Investment Than ConocoPhillips [View article]
    Thank you.
    Apr 8 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Looks To Be A Better Investment Than ConocoPhillips [View article]
    I do use monthly closing prices and monthly CPI estimates. The procedure is based on linear regression of around 100 months for the advanced model (with time lags) and just on visual fit for the original (CC and C) model.
    I did not calculate t-stat but checked the residual error for unit roots (i.e. cointegration between observed and predicted prices) and other simple stat features. I have no doubt that t-stat is good since the predicted price is very sensitive to the coefficients. In any case, it is easy to estimate for any given model.

    I did calculated and presented some returns for some reliable deterministic models in my book - http://amzn.to/wmO6rS . However, returns was not teh main topic.
    Apr 5 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Looks To Be A Better Investment Than ConocoPhillips [View article]
    Right. I have to disclose the purchase but this is a part of a diversified portfolio not a COP share purchase. I am going to enter the stock market a little later in April, when the S&P 500 is at 1350. Then I consider APA and BTU as very attractive ones.
    At the same time, this is kind of technical analysis without any prejudice. You may judge what's it worth. It has beeb working well for COP since 2003.
    Apr 5 07:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Peabody Energy Is Highly Undervalued [View article]
    Thank you for this comment. Did both disruptive impacts start in April 2011? The SA editor has removed the question mark from my original title of thsi article. Actually, I wonder what was the reason behind the deviation?
    Apr 4 06:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Peabody Energy Is Highly Undervalued [View article]
    Right. This is my first investment - should be defensive and a part of a big portfolio. GOing to enter stocks (likely BTU and NFX) directly when S&P 500 is at 1350 - expect this level by May.
    Apr 3 04:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoResources Is Highly Overvalued [View article]
    I do not compare NFX and GEOI. I apply the same approach to all companies and report results of quantitative analysis only. One may say that the approach is wrong and ignore its results but there is no prejudice to any company.
    Apr 1 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoResources Is Highly Overvalued [View article]
    I know about GEOI almost nothing and apply the same procedure to all companies. There is no prejudice and interest from my side. In my previous article I did a similar analysis for NFX and found that it is highly undervalued.
    Apr 1 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now For Something Really Scary: Oil Price Black Swan On The Horizon [View article]
    Interestingly, I drew a similar (prediction) curve in August 2011, but using a different consideration - http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 30 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Can Model ConocoPhillips' Share Price Since 1982 [View article]
    Yahoo.com defines COP price since 1982. http://yhoo.it/H4rpYY
    Mar 29 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton Is Slightly Undervalued [View article]
    Currently, it is undervalued according to my model (which is just a model with estimated uncertainty). But is was not undevalued between 2003 and the middle of 2011. I am not sure what do you mean under "since God knows when".
    Mar 27 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton Is Slightly Undervalued [View article]
    1.There are still 4 years to 2016 and some room for oil price fall to $30 to $60

    2. Actually, the overall fit it is not perfect. These papers

    http://bit.ly/HbHTvG (also publsihed by JARF http://bit.ly/HhTCL5 )
    http://bit.ly/HbHSYC

    cover the period before 2003 with the same success.
    Mar 27 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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