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Ivan Kitov

 
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  • Devon Energy Is Undervalued [View article]
    It a good insight. I do not model with so low-level CPIs or PPIs. I did some modeling with the PPI for oil and CPI for energy but Seeking Alfa rejected this article. I did something similar to COP a month ago: http://bit.ly/GZDIGY . In any case you may download appropriate data and try - this is a five minutes job.

    On the other hand, if you are right the DVN model would not work at all including the period between 2003 and 2011. However, it showed excellent results and then failed. I have interpreted this effect as an undervalued share price. This is one of plausible interpretations.
    Mar 25 03:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do We Still Foresee Deflation? [View article]
    I am not sure that deflation is induced by political or financila turbulence. However, it could affect thepresidential election in the U.S. I do not see deflation pressure in France, but they have other economic/financial problems to resolve. It seems to be eternal.
    Mar 20 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America May Fall Below $5 [View article]
    Actually, I started four yeras ago and my first post on this model on SA was in 2010. I do nothing new.
    Mar 20 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Franklin Resources Is Likely Overvalued [View article]
    It is only 4 years old. Have published a book with more details ( http://amzn.to/wmO6rS ) and a paper in the journal where I am a co-editor - http://bit.ly/wcGjwN )
    Some companies stay intact like HPQ. Some stay for shorter time of 12 to 20 months. I publish models which do not change (defining CPIs) at least 6 months. Also we control uncertainties with monthly high/low, RMSFE, etc.
    Mar 19 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Franklin Resources Is Likely Overvalued [View article]
    You are right. I do regress BEN price using two CPIs. And not only BEN, but all S&P 500 list. Don't you deny the U.S. CPI dependence on global markets?
    Mar 19 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can We Expect Oil Price Deflation In 2012? [View article]
    I do not see oil price drop . Deflation may happen even with the current price level. The trick is in the high price a year aho.
    Mar 19 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can We Expect Oil Price Deflation In 2012? [View article]
    I do foresee a long term decline in oil price into the second half of the 2010s. Your examples are very instructive and insightful.
    Mar 19 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America May Fall Below $5 [View article]
    "In the near future .." means several months because one month is the model time step. The residual error curve shows that the same effect (high positive residual) was observed in July- December 2008. The price level in the beginning of July was ~$20, the end of July - $31, September $33, October $20, December $13.
    The model has explained that weird behavior. Why should I exclude the history to be repeated at a smaller scale of $5?
    Mar 18 04:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FedEx Is Slightly Overvalued [View article]
    I agree that this world is changing. Companies are also changing with their models. new products, services, markets, etc. As a geophysicist I could say that the earth has been changing since accretion and will be changing in the future. However, some basic laws and relationships has been working all the time.

    Some models, lile for HPQ, work since 2008/2009. Some models work for 12 to 24 months and then change. Two third of the S&P 500 list has no reliable model with CPIs leading their prices.
    Therefore, I do separate the principle of pricing and pricing models. The former is working and the latter may fail at some point.
    Mar 17 03:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan Chase: A Negative Correction Is Not Excluded [View article]
    I did not check this specific case, but the residual error is usually a I(0) time series. The predicted and observed series are cointegrated. The regression is not spurious.

    I would recommend to forget your understanding of market power and usual stock price models. They are worthless and spurious. Better follow our conce upt

    Mar 16 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: A Slight Negative Correction Expected [View article]
    The price of aluminum is driven by the economy. The economy is driven by construction and thus by the price of residence. Food has to have no connection in order to provide an independent price reference.
    I do not say that it works like that. I just say that these two CPI explain the evolution of AA best.
    Mar 13 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil Is On Rise [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I do not use any statistics of XOM itself to predict its future value. It would be interesting to compare our predictions in a month.
    Mar 12 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil Is On Rise [View article]
    One CPI does affect the price, another should be as independent as possible, i.e. to provide a moving reference. Obviosly, one should refer crude price not to constant level, since the overall price also goes up and down.
    Crude only does not provide a good description: http://bit.ly/y1JrJY
    Mar 12 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apartment Investment And Management Company: A Slight Fall Is Not Excluded In March-April [View article]
    AIV share will likely to fall slightly in the first quarter of 2012 and then will go up, say , $22 to $25 in Q2. The model does not see beyond its predictive horizon, which is 5 months. Essentially, the model does not predict it changing much.
    Mar 8 07:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unemployment Will Drop To 7.8% By 2013 [View article]
    I appreciate your opinion on the tricks played by administrations. As a Russian right before the president elections I feel all lie.
    Mar 2 01:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
211 Comments
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