JPMorgan Chase: A Negative Correction Is Not Excluded [View article]
I did not check this specific case, but the residual error is usually a I(0) time series. The predicted and observed series are cointegrated. The regression is not spurious.
I would recommend to forget your understanding of market power and usual stock price models. They are worthless and spurious. Better follow our conce upt
Alcoa: A Slight Negative Correction Expected [View article]
The price of aluminum is driven by the economy. The economy is driven by construction and thus by the price of residence. Food has to have no connection in order to provide an independent price reference. I do not say that it works like that. I just say that these two CPI explain the evolution of AA best.
Thanks for the comment. I do not use any statistics of XOM itself to predict its future value. It would be interesting to compare our predictions in a month.
One CPI does affect the price, another should be as independent as possible, i.e. to provide a moving reference. Obviosly, one should refer crude price not to constant level, since the overall price also goes up and down. Crude only does not provide a good description: http://bit.ly/y1JrJY
Apartment Investment And Management Company: A Slight Fall Is Not Excluded In March-April [View article]
AIV share will likely to fall slightly in the first quarter of 2012 and then will go up, say , $22 to $25 in Q2. The model does not see beyond its predictive horizon, which is 5 months. Essentially, the model does not predict it changing much.
A 130-Year Long Argument Against The Solow Growth Model [View article]
I have presented real GDP, RGDP, which is calulated as nominal GDP adjusted for the GDP price deflator. Real GDP is not a directly measured variable and thus depends on the definition of inflation. This definition is highly suspicious even after 1950. For example, http://seekingalpha.co... But before 1940, the annual increment of RGDP is 10(!) time lower than after 1950. This is at least a paradox: http://bit.ly/yxvxFD
A 130-Year Long Argument Against The Solow Growth Model [View article]
thanks. I think that RGDP concept or measurements are all wrong and the extrapolation of RGDP trends intercepts 0 between 1920 and 1940 in all developed countries - http://bit.ly/yxvxFD
Thanks. You have given me a good hint. years ago I cross correlated about 100 CPIs and found that many of them are 99% similar (with possible time lags of several months) Will try to address this issue.
The difference between observed and predcited returns indicate that the annual S&P 500 returns will be growing in Q1 and Q2. The level of 1500 is not excluded. As an alternative, the BEA may reduce its estimates of real GDP growth in 2011 to approximately 0.5% instead of the current rate of 1.7%. Since the model is based on actual observations both cases are not excluded.
Monetary Policy In Japan Is Sound And There Is No Liquidity Trap [View article]
SA does not like too much math details in their articles and reject them. I follow up their requirements and refer to papers containing necessary information for readers needing deeper analysis. If you read the paper I have mentioned in my previous commen ( http://bit.ly/x21jcb) you might find results of cointegration and causation tests. A more thorough description of the model and results is in our book - http://amzn.to/xSSUYn
Monetary Policy In Japan Is Sound And There Is No Liquidity Trap [View article]
1. In many developed countries the change in labor force leads inflation by years ( see this paper in Journal of Applied Economic Sciences http://bit.ly/x21jcb ). Naturally, we suggest that it happens so in Japan as well despite the zero year lead.
2. The level of labor force is important, i.e the rate of participation times total number of working age people. the rate of participation is driven with a lag by GDP per capita ( http://bit.ly/xf1GG9 ) 3. There is a paper specifically on inflation in Japan: http://bit.ly/yIzIAf
JPMorgan Chase: A Negative Correction Is Not Excluded [View article]
I would recommend to forget your understanding of market power and usual stock price models. They are worthless and spurious. Better follow our conce upt
Alcoa: A Slight Negative Correction Expected [View article]
I do not say that it works like that. I just say that these two CPI explain the evolution of AA best.
Exxon Mobil Is On Rise [View article]
Exxon Mobil Is On Rise [View article]
Crude only does not provide a good description: http://bit.ly/y1JrJY
Apartment Investment And Management Company: A Slight Fall Is Not Excluded In March-April [View article]
Unemployment Will Drop To 7.8% By 2013 [View article]
A 130-Year Long Argument Against The Solow Growth Model [View article]
But before 1940, the annual increment of RGDP is 10(!) time lower than after 1950. This is at least a paradox: http://bit.ly/yxvxFD
A 130-Year Long Argument Against The Solow Growth Model [View article]
Looks this world was created 90 years ago
What Deflates And What Inflates? [View article]
What Deflates And What Inflates? [View article]
Employment Situation: The Effect Of Population Controls And Seasonal Adjustment [View article]
The S&P 500 In 2012 [View article]
Monetary Policy In Japan Is Sound And There Is No Liquidity Trap [View article]
Monetary Policy In Japan Is Sound And There Is No Liquidity Trap [View article]
A more thorough description of the model and results is in our book - http://amzn.to/xSSUYn
Monetary Policy In Japan Is Sound And There Is No Liquidity Trap [View article]
2. The level of labor force is important, i.e the rate of participation times total number of working age people.
the rate of participation is driven with a lag by GDP per capita ( http://bit.ly/xf1GG9 )
3. There is a paper specifically on inflation in Japan:
http://bit.ly/yIzIAf