Andy earned his stripes in Greater China as an investor, entrepreneur and policy analyst. He was one of the first investment professionals to join Morningside Ventures in the early 1990s, where he helped formulate the group’s investment strategy and played a key role in the post-investment management of portfolio companies in health care, media and education. Subsequently, he joined the RAND Corp where, under the leadership of Zalmay Khalilzad (former US Ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq and the UN), he helped research and publish the influential and widely cited “The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military Implications.” Andy currently runs Red Pagoda Resources, a Beijing-based professional services firm that helps startups in China secure money, find key talent and earn media attention to accelerate their growth and success. In addition, he has advised family offices and other institutional investors on business and real estate investment opportunities in China, including representing the family office of a well-known Seattle entrepreneur in discussions with their peers in Asia. Andy holds an MBA from the Wharton School in Philadelphia and an MA in China Studies from the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies, where he was awarded the Loe Fellowship for Excellence in China Studies. He is also a CPA and has a Bachelor’s degree in Accounting from the University of Maryland.
I’ve been interested in the market ever since the downturn in 2009. It wasn’t until this past year where I started to enhance my trading skills and invest. I am here to bounce ideas off other investors and interact with like-minded individuals looking to get ahead. My strategy is in finding small cap companies that are undiscovered by large investment firms, particularly businesses with solid fundamentals.
I am a long term trader, but occasionally play the shorts. Please feel free to message me or follow me on SA.
2013 portfolio finished up 160%
"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." -Warren Buffet
"Stock tips are tempting, but they’re not worth listening to. Tips are for waiters, not traders." -Jim Cramer
"If anyone ever tells you to pay for their investment advice, make sure you request last year's tax forms to prove it. "
"You must look at things in the aspect of eternity" - The Intelligent Investor
FROM INSIDE SILICON VALLEY: Sorting the truth or likely truth from the noise is a key attribute of the successful investor. My commentary is a distillation of some of this effort relative to particular stocks and investment areas. My publishing at this point in time is limited to the blogsphere, Stocktwits as a Tweeter (@RobertinGatos), and Seeking Alpha posts as both an author (one article and trying to find time for more) and frequent commentator. I have no doubt that this truth seeking effort has been a great aid in my own efforts to be a successful high tech stock investor, which now goes back over 30 years.
Professionally, I was an Engineering Manager in two pioneering Silicon Valley high technology companies, Intel and Fairchild Semiconductor. Some will recall that Fairchild was formed by the group that William Shockley, co-inventor of the transistor of Bell Labs fame. had brought together at Shockley Labs to commercialize this device. I joined Fairchild Semiconductor R&D Labs in Palo Alto in 1973. It was at the time affectionately called "Fairchild Tech" due to its propensity to create spinoffs including National Semiconductor, AMD and Intel.
I joined Intel in in 1977 as Manager of their Analytical Lab start up and retired from Intel's senior management ranks in 1998. I joined a startup called Metara as a BOD member and ultimately as VP and Chief Technology Officer. I facilitated the generation of 17 automated mass spectrometry patents and became an expert on analytical technology patents as a result. I retired a second time in 2006 due to the fact that Metara ran out of capital before the first product was fully debugged. Venture caps can be fickle people.
Through out this time, I was surrounded by high tech business activity including management and ultimately startup financing. I stayed familiar with the high tech business press throughout this time and attended relevant Silicon Valley events including many Valley technology investment conferences and shareholder meetings beginning well before the Santa Clara Valley area was called Silicon Valley.
My start as a high tech investor occurred in 1981 when my first Intel stock options became exercisable. I used margin to exercise, buy and hold my Intel stock while I added margin to buy companies like MSFT, CSCO, ORCL, JDSU, SUNW and QCOM from the 80's forward. Needless to say the returns were outstanding. I had the luck of being exposed to long term LEAP call investing by a follow Intel manager and used this technique as additional leverage for most of my tech investments since the very beginning.
I used to love to bet against Merrill Lynch'sTom Kurlak who was known as THE Intel analyst of the time. He would make a negative call on Intel that I knew was way off the mark and use this opportunity for entry into my next set of Intel LEAP calls. That taught me to take advantage of Wall Street whenever possible rather than be their victim.
My original investment specialty was tech stocks however I have expanded my expertise in many key sectors. I follow high tech trends and business activity on a daily basis. I have added Financials to this tracking in particular since the bad behavior of the Investment Banks and now regular Banks (derivatives and lending practices) has led to multiple ugly stock market crashes. Notable examples include the crash of 2008 and the 2000 dot.com bubble with more yet to come, at least in the absence of better regulation.
I am a firm believer in understanding the business model, the business fundamentals and competitive environment for any company that I invest in. I look for competent management and high performance financials that demonstrate a strong possibility of on-going earnings and revenue growth. I read CEO pronouncements with my competence and BS detector on high (for example Ballmer pegs both needles - I'll let you guess which end of the scales). Drilling into a company’s financial fundamentals is a downstream step. Excessive debt is a red flag even if it is for so called good reason -- it limits company margins and business options, and can be representative a poofly performing business segment a company is in. I avoid those kinds of businesses in spite of what may be labeled as strong positive cash flow. Debt leads to sluggish earnings growth and limits company flexibility. It can also lead to ugly surprises, stock dilution for example. Technology company stock buybacks leave me cold. If they cannot make more money by growing their own business with the money, they will flatline or worse.
When the opportunity permits, I try to be ready to buy good companies that I believe have been beaten up inappropriately or are under appreciated (the Tom Kurlak example). I also try to buy companies that I know and understand inside and out or work on getting to there if I invest. Fewer companies,
I usually write about airline, aerospace, transport and industrial stocks as I have followed these industries for many years, developed contacts and an in-depth understanding of their inner workings. I will post detailed analysis and a guide to most developments that occur at all stocks I regularly cover. Currently I cover most major U.S airlines, and aerospace firms. Over time I hope to expand my coverage of quality aerospace, airline, transport and industrial stocks.
One area I focus on is the airline industry. The airline industry is undergoing fundamental change, with only 4 major U.S airlines now, down from 12 just over 10 years ago. This consolidation has rationalized the industry and for the first time in history made it worthy of investing and making a profit in. All major U.S airlines with the exception of Southwest are still not investment grade and still have many hurdles ahead, leaving nice upside for investors willing to get into the industry at this stage.
In general, I love trading value stocks that I believe have significant upside compared to downside long term. I prefer medium cap companies with compelling value, growth, or momentum. I focus on a select list of quality stocks that I have rigorously vetted which I update weekly. I like to create high quality in depth articles on stocks that I am passionate about and hope they will be of help to other investors out there or those looking for ideas to get started.
I am retired. I was academically trained as an Institutional Economist specializing in comparative economic sytems. I am very knowledgeable about the old Soviet style command economies as well as the various types of mixed economies that currently exist.
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
Thanksgiving 2014 update: I've not been posting as often. A lot going on in my personal life but as for stocks here & my opinions, I've not actually changed on opinions per longs. I will give some updates on thoughts & events etc.
ANR was one I talked about a lot this year. It has also been one in decline in stock price too. ANR hit a 52wk low in Oct I believe but I do know it nearly doubled in just a few days from 31 Oct to just after Election Day since Republicans are more bullish on coal than Democrats. I expected that psychological effect. Those who have been trading ANR swing trades for example have had a good spread to make some bucks & did really well a few times probably that one time the best this year. For those simply going long & averaging down, if one did that, they should be in green now since the stock is above $2 and was in the 1.50s so green, at even or if in the red not too red but trades should have offset anything being held long imo. ANR has a book value about $15 & cash per share over $5 which is higher than FACEBOOK but it trades in the 2s & 3s a lot. I still expect things to be okay there & stock in double digits so I am holding LONG.
AMD has been around forever. I've been in & out of that one many times. There was an article out on it being that little fish so to speak but sometimes those small ones can do sneak attacks in the Oceans. AMD has had various problems for years but it seems to keep on going.I'd like to add shares soon at low levels. http://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerkay/2014/11/25/intel-and-amd-the-juggernaut-vs-the-squid/?partner=yahootix
My opinions have not changed since 10/24/14 message but I'm adding one new stock to my 2015 list. I will of course do an end of year post about what went on this year, what I expect & if I think I would take any loses on something later in December or not. I suspect not but let's give it 3 weeks. LPCN @ 4.99 is an interesting company. There were insider buys & it trades on NasdaqCM, has a 52 range of 3.70 - 11.33 & target of $21 over at yahoo. It started trading last year and has ZERO debt. ACHN was perhaps my best pick this year. I selected it under $3 & it went to $15. I did not hold for those highs as am sure I posted in older messages however; the stock became a trader for day trading or swing trading because of range & volume. It is up big a couple days then down big a couple days. It sits at 12.76 tonight which is a lil too pricey for me going by the charts but I might get back in there soon on very oversold. As stated in more recent posts, my only disappointment was with MCP. I really got that one wrong but I said it came with risks yet at the same time, I just couldn't imagine the States allowing China to rule in Rare Earth Minerals so perhaps there is hope for it yet. This year has NOT been as good as the two years before. Those were two years of every picks just simply doing well. That win was broken this year by some that have not done so well but that is normal. It could mean 2015 is a better year & if so, it would probably be in the stocks that were down this year like ANR. I'm very interested in ZNGA. AEZS, I am watching. I see lawsuits and all that going on pertaining to something inside the company but I notice that with a lot of stocks that dive. It's as if people can't take personal responsibility for investing or realizing there are risks so those in a company get blamed. Did they really do something wrong? Maybe but we don't know that. No court has said so at this time but is a stock I am watching since if things went in their favor, it could send the stock up huge. If bad news then the stock could be in serious trouble. As always, never put more in the markets than one can afford a total loss on and never panic when a stock is down and not providing instant gratification. Never get greedy so just enjoy trading & go for the long term. See the big picture of 5 years out or at least two years out when trying to see if stock 1 goes up fast in two weeks while stock 2 goes down etc. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving if in US & Holidays to come. I will post back before Christmas.
Update pre market 10/24/14: I'm still bullish on the same stocks & bearish on same stocks so nothing has changed there with stocks listed below but I want to mention some really good long term investments. I believe GOOG to be undervalued & a great long term investment as is the case with Amazon, PRU, IBM, CAT, PEP & even Coke. IBM will be trading a hundred years from now but out of that set for long term potential next ten years will probably be GOOG, AMAZON & PRU. If saving up at age 50 for retirement in near 20 years, all of the above would be fine imo. For starting out for younger people 18, they would be great 40 years out although there will be mergers & or buyouts of at least one or two of them at premium prices in those decades imo. We are nearly done with Oct., not market crash or breach of DOW below 14 thousand. In fact it is staying at or above 16k so with a week to go, I doubt there is any kind of crash & I can't remember a time it did in Nov or Dec since those are pretty good months other than a few days toward late December some sell then prices bounce in January. The lows on ANR if not seen already at the 52 week low will certainly be this month or before midterms imo so out of the woods on that almost & similar with AUY & others that have been down a lot. I do like JDSU again on oversold next round. I might post again before midterms but I think the excitement in my picks will be in the days and weeks after midterms.
10/8/14 pre market: Lions, Tigers & Bears oh my.. I don't trade or invest on dreams but I often dream of working and stock symbols and things but about 5 weeks ago before ANR took the pre election plunge to give shorts one last shot at it before it explodes higher post elections, I had a dream the stock went down to 1.40s I think it was 1.47 exactly. I woke up and figured just a dream & logically don't base things on that but I did put money aside just in case it really did go that low to buy more shares there lol and now it is under 2 bucks so who knows. Cash per share is over 5 bucks and book value over 16 bucks so it's obviously the most undervalued in the markets and is not going bankrupt and coal is not going away since makes up most of US energy and will for many years to come not counting other nations but just thought I'd mention the crazy dream and will see if it actually goes to that price then up from there to 10 bucks end of year since it is going to explode higher in a given day Nov or Dec imo but that price is only a dream not actual technical anything.
I have zero doubts that most who own ANR for example two bucks higher and if brave and held seeing red are in a panic. I hold I believe a few shares a couple bucks higher than current prices then a buck higher then closer to lows because I just buy and average down a good stock and am not worried or concerned at all. My opinions have not changed. I believe the stock hits bottom before midterm elections and those lows are never seen again. Republicans will win midterms and you will see huge bounce in the coal sector real fast and as we get into winter which is expected to be colder than last, it continues upward so let market makers keep it low. Let shorts go short or longs panic. Better for me long term for making money and same with AUY which I would buy every .75 lower so both those are fine. What about others that are penny types AMD? Fine imo. I have not changed opinions at all since spring or first of the year on my picks. I believe just like picks from years before where most did just fine, same thing with my continued selection yet I still believe keep cash on the side, be able to average down and be ready for when the DOW fills the gap then goes to 4500 on panic. When that will be is not known but if it happens this year it would be this month. We lose in October then we gain greatly last two months and with stocks like ANR that will end the year very well imo, they will end mid March extremely well imo. As for things to be trading one is ACHN which I expect to be up today but either way, it has been a damn good trader. It was at the lows when I mentioned it like was groupon, First Solar and others but more recent and I sold longs before the highs were made but is okay since that is typical of me getting in on lows but not out at highs yet there is trading that makes up for it. Reason posting this am is to state no change in opinions, no panic, no worries so if others own similar stocks and see red in accounts, I'd really not be worried at all. I'd be adding shares but double amount at such lower prices etc. jmo Hope everyone is enjoying the fall colors. Some areas are past peak while others are starting to get bright. I believe it is Atlanta that is about as far south you really see full colors but they don't light up until later in November down there but they look nice when they do. Vermont has the best in the east which is past peak then 2nd best is Smoky Mountains E TN and Blue Ridge W NC which should be starting to get near peak in the next week then valley areas in two weeks. I might go to the Smokey Mountains this fall to see the colors but I need to hurry up since in two weeks it will be over as winter sets in there.
9/26/14 before pre market: I'm sure some are wondering about ANR and if I am holding at higher prices, if I have changed my mind to a hold or sell or what is going on with that stock. I do hold shares at higher prices, did not sell and have added more so it is a strong buy imo. It's pure panic selling imo considering the stock has a cash per share value twice that of of trading price and book over $16 per share. Sure, coal is down but it's not like the States or other nations stopped or are soon to stop using coal so it signals to me better value in the most undervalued stock in the entire markets so I will keep adding and hope for a buck but it looks like it might have hit a bottom at its low. Can't be confirmed until next week unless price were to drop below that low today then we know it is not at the bottom. Sept and Oct are the months many stocks are likely to dive while those same stocks will likely be up big in November and December or at least before winter is over. ACHN sure has been great from under $3 up then it became a great trading stock and still looks like a trading stock. ANAD is up more than 20 cents from its lows so for a penny stock that is 20+ points higher no problem there imo.
AMD still looks good to me. I have not changed opinions but I continue to remind everyone to have cash on the side for rest of Sept and Oct just to be safe. The DOW is too high imo. I don't know when it pulls back and fills gaps but it will at a future date. To this date, the only stock that has been a concerning factor to me is MCP. That's not an energy stock the nation depends on daily but it is an important type company of rare earth minerals since without them there is no TV, computers, cell phones, Jets or military for that matter. The problem is the government seems to want to buy from China instead of putting support behind a company at home imo AUY is fine and at great prices. Will it go lower? Maybe but it is also going to $16 so not a worry for me. With the dollar up, it has caused gold to lower but gold doesn't stay down too long. SLW is a good stock imo too. I do prefer PRU, IBM, GOOG & CAT for those really long term investments. Long term to me is over 5 years out or 20 years out. There is the shorter long term of 36 months or less which would relate to ANR, AUY, ANAD, AMD and others I have posted about. Some of those will see big gains this very year or by end of winter imo and being penny stocks, one can see a lot of red or green really fast in an account. I believe most see a lot of red and they start to panic. That is when I am buying. I will sell when people are being greedy not counting trades..
Someone was asking about ANAD. ANAD has been performing in a bad way yet I see it as a good stock if one is willing to hold long term. They did get a warning about it trading under a buck but I'd not be concerned about that. I see it as potential buyout target but it will be back over a buck & I believe around $5 or so but in a buyout could be $8 to $10.. As for the next three or 4 months end of year, I'm not actually sure how high that one goes but I'd not perceive it as a sell. I'd probably just add more shares to bring my average down, hold, forget about it a while then check back in six months to see what's going on with some limit orders to buy at 20 cents or sell at $5+
Today is back to work 9/8/14: I noticed AUY & ANR on pullbacks. Both stocks are priced great no matter if they were to fall lower near term imo. ANR is most undervalued in entire market as far as I'm concerned and AUY is a nobrainer going to $16+ but this is that time of year that is dangerous in the markets from my history and data & we have a midterm coming up which is important only based on psychology but that is what is in markets so here is my prediction for midterms this year & next 4..
President Obama along with approval from Congress that is never mentioned how Congress must approve things has been allowing illegals in. Why does he do this? There are probably many reasons & keep in mind, even those on the Mayflower were here illegally but one reason he does it is likely to get 40 million new registered Democratic voters! This will make it difficult in years to come for Republicans to win elections & he knows this fact so in 2016, Democrats likely to win Presidency & by 2018, it will be nearly impossible for Republicans to every gain control of either House for a long time. This year it looked like it would be HUGE victory for Republicans in midterms but now as we near the elections it looks like it will be a victory but not huge. Republicans hold the House of Reps and have 53% chance of taking the Senate with light majority but it is a maybe there. Either way, since Democrats won't win much & the fact Republicans are good psychologically for various stocks such as coal, ANR is going to rocket post midterms. That sector is in recovery already. Fear holds it down but that will be gone post midterms. I'm increasing my end of year target on ANR to $12 instead of $10. I would love to see it drop below 2 bucks like AMD did but only 50% chance it will & if so needs to do it soon imo. ACHN is still performing very well which I alerted about under $3. It's a great trade imo..
I'll be adding more stocks as we move into fall but be careful out there with DOW so high and October near! I'd keep some cash on the sides to be safe..
Last of August 2014:
I noticed AZES closed up so still like that one as well as ZNGA. Here is a link to portfolio A and B. A is the one that didn't do well in 12 months but it is the one likely to do very well the next 12 imo and ANR is in that one as is MCP so who knows, maybe MCP will be okay after all. My main concern would be the DOW is far too high having not filled gaps! Those gaps will get filled but no one knows when so it could be early fall this year or it could be in spring but one or the other they will fill. Holding some cash on the side for that time too.
ANR is best stock in entire market at this time imo...
Going to add to list FNSR for 8/27/14 as buy with $30 target. Will start to add more over $10 stocks but IMPORTANT thing is cash on the side since DJI is TOO HIGH IMO.... We are going into a time of year, I don't trust from history with gaps to be filled in DJI at some point, a possible war with Syria or Iran & problems at home of a divided States of America so cash on the side right now for emergency in case of a huge pullback or crash would be a good idea imo
Not been on much since is still summer but last week of summer now. Wanted to give some updates of last two or three years and today is 8/26/14:
ACHN has been one heck of a trade. It was one I mentioned I was buying in the $2s sold I believe at that time $8s then have been trading some since you can see it has become a good trade so that has done very well. X has done well since my selection under $17, AA which was under $8 has double too. GRPN did well under $3 to $12 then was like ACHN as in a trade but I posted on an article under $3 it was a buy in 12 I believe. I know I paid less than $5 for BAC although charts, I'd have to look up exact time but I remember paying $4s then Buffett bought just over $6 few weeks later and it has obviously be up hundreds of percentage points since selecting it. ZNGA was near $2 then went to $5 and has been a trade since then so of course more than 100% since selection. FSLR was about $13 or $14 when I selected it and I remember saying it was going to $50 and it is in the $70s but I did not hold to the $70s of course and did not get in at $11 but that was a good pick imo.. I'd have to go find all my old posts to see exact number and other stocks but I happen to know all went up since I selected them other than one which has been the failure and that is Molycorp. That one has been really a total failure from point I selected it so I have missed on one. AUY has done well as did BBRY on its low when everyone was saying sell, I bought of course at that low.
ANR has been a selection of mine and it's been down but I predict ANR is going to $50 per share! That is my projection for that stock in less than 36 months now & ANR is the most undervalued stock in the entire market with a book value getting up near $20, stock trades even below cash per share, debt is not due soon & there is recovery coming fast in that sector so ANR is going to do better than First Solar did imo when talking returns from these prices or even $10 or $20 but I never selected it in double digits. I started talking about it around $5, it went down then it had this little bottom dance low 3s to high 3s trading range but might have broken out of that if it can close above $4 a few more times. That stock should close the year out a lot higher than $6 for sure so that one is going to be our next First Solar imo... ACI is okay and BTU but ANR looks best at this point to me. I will be adding more shares next oversold when chart shows it down under 20 on the RSI. It's overbought now but could form a breakout then a short squeeze but even if it doesn't now it will this year so it's my opinion that only a fool would be short that stock and I am not a fool. I'll be back activity trading in Sept but it is post midterms we see a huge spike in ANR imo... Sodastream looks like a buy too. I look forward to the wireless electricity companies to start up in a few years so I want in at ground level there. GOOG is undervalued too btw for long term investment, CAT, PRU, IBM always safe choices for long term investments imo. AAPL is a trade but not a great long term investment imo. Good luck everyone & have a nice holiday coming up.....
Late summer new update on stocks I've posted about this and last year that have done so well. AKS. Memba that one? X? ACHN? Just three of stocks have posted about that have nearly doubled or more than doubled. You can always read through my posts going back to AMD under $2 to see where it went & is going. I did sell ACHN before it went into the 8s but it's looking interesting again yet this time of year I am careful knowing lows are often hit in various areas like clothing retail that will double or triple at holidays and in January. ARO AEO are two that will imo so no brainers there. That one stock that has still done poorly that I posted about a while back has been MCP. Molycorp was so far the only pick I've made of a hundred or more that I've seen door poorly. Very poorly in fact but can't win them all so not relevant for someone who bought say, AKS at the two year lows let alone a few of the others. I still believe for the long term investor going out ten or more years it needs to be GOOG, CAT & IBM NOT AAPL or FB since FB is simply a social media and those come and go all the time. APPL might double from here however; long term, it had its day for those buying in at $4 or less per share. There are new ones out there like that. Even SODA looks good to me so I might take a bite out of that one. Coke is not going to do as well as SODA imo. The E cig stocks are big because people will stay addicted but cigarettes that light old way won't be around too many more years so there are some good stocks in that sector. Sodastream is going to $100 or more imo. Nice 300% if it does. Keep eyes open for wireless electricity companies to form in next few year to get in for 30 cents per share on stocks that will be higher than AAPL ever went imo. We are going wireless per electricity through magnetism and new grids. This will not put coal out of business. Coal is going to be huge again like ANR, ACI and BTU which I am adding more shares of just like ADAD, AMD etc since I like a thousand or more percentage gain and ANR is the one for that imo. It hit a bottom, will stay flat through midterms as I stated in spring. It has stayed sideways but is totally undervalued going to $50 imo. The pot stocks have some good ones going too since you know no State will end up wanting to miss out on the huge funds in that market. Sure, the SE will be the longest holdout yet not important for these stocks at this time. Even sub penny stocks that are dangerously risky like ANAS look worth looking into at the least but I don't like to mention those because of how risky they are. I've made a lot of money on sub penny stocks in the past but I have seen most go to zero.
Keep eyes on Brazil and COFFEE and the companies into that sector as well as aluminum. Increase demand for both but I still like AA for one on that sector and got in at five year low which posted was a buy imo at the time as I did with First Solar which proof is in my posts going back to those times still listed am sure. The GDP will increase in Brazil faster than States or China! imo That can be found in a fund that has five or six companies in it trading at highs but is undervalued imo. Congress gets six weeks paid vacation now end of summer first of autumn so markets trend sideways since you know that wealth of them trading slows and you know they trade. By 2020 pot/weed will be legal in all States but next three years more than half imo so that is a huge business.
I will be taking time off now & getting back into things in the fall. I expect stocks to remain flat the next 60 days last of summer, not sure about how things go in October but I believe sectors that have been down hard the last year or so will be flying high post midterms in early November so the end of year will be kind to coal & other sectors that were out of favor. I still like AUY & believe it is going to do well. It could fall another two bucks this summer in a pullback but it's going to $20s imo. AMD that I mentioned well under $2 is looking good. I see a lot of potential there. I see a 400% profit on ANAD too but going out long term such as five years on that one, I'm not as sure as I am AMD. I continue to stand by every stock I have mentioned in the past other than those I closed positions in for profits like First Solar that I bought around $13 a share. I just don't see Solar or Wind power working in the States. Coal is still our leading energy source & will continue to be so for decades to come along with natural gas. I might even get back in ACHN again. I got that one at three year lows on that crash it had then road it up, got out but notice it has a trade range now so next strong pullback I might get back in long there too.
Good luck everyone and have a great what is left to the summer. I expect another cold winter since we are back in the normal 30 year cooling phase which science basically proves. The Antarctic is at all time record highs & the Arctic ice mass grew nearly 70% in the last three years so I expect now for it to be at record high levels in just about 24 more months. Winters will continue to average colder & longer for a couple decades to come imo. This will mean need for more heating thus the less expensive coal which you will see back in favor this very year imo. See you in October.
UPDATE JULY 3RD MARKET CLOSE: Davidson Kempner obviously sees potential in ANR since they added shares.
ANR has been added here: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-davidson-kempner-adds-position-170111842.html
Some interesting prices to buy various stocks at. I'm no longer a fan of AAPL since that company has had its day imo but I think it can double from current prices since many still want to own apple for some odd reason as if it's some sort of investment for the baby for college education or something strange like that when it was an investment at 4 and 5 bucks many years ago. Either way, it will double in price within a year imo so for that it is okay and better filling a gap at $75 post split prices of course. IBM is a fantastic investment and undervalued now but a good buy at 180 while GOOG is good near $500 and CAT near 90 bucks imo. LNKD is one of the few social media types I'd be interested in & it's profitable adding new people each day while FB isn't adding like that. LNKD runs more profitable than AAPL any day of the week Q to Q imo so a double should be easy imo. I still like ZNGA & AEZS so thoughts have not changed any on those. MCP seems to still be my one pick that just has not worked out. I've not given up on it but it's really done poorly since I selected it. It's down 50% from then & news hasn't been good. REE is probably the better choice there. It's not like my pick on First Solar when that was $13 a share and I said going to $50 and it went past that. I'm not in First Solar now of course because realistically, coal still is the leader in US energy with natural gas being 70% of our real energy & that won't change much in the years to come imo regardless of political views. There is no global warming. The earth is actually cooling. Arctic Ice mass is up & Antarctic is up to record levels not from warming but from cooling. New Congress will be favorable to coal in November & January. Another cold winter on the way too. imo just not as cold as last winter but colder than most of last 30 years. I think they are wrong on forecasts. I think the El Nino is dying out & if still there will be weak and fade because it is a negative PDO. Expect winter to start early and last long but not as cold as last winter. 20s for highs to the TN valley tho and that's typical cold phase winter. Even Atlanta could have days in the 30s or 40s for highs a lot. There should be heavy snows all the way down to Atlanta too 2014-15 winter imo.... That means 8-12" which is heavy for them.
Stocks seem to be doing well. It's been a long time since I added JDSU but it's looking interesting. Not at current prices but when it falls back to fill the gap. It's very overbought now but I might be interested in buying at the gap on oversold which will be this summer during my part time off. At least the ones I've selected seem to either be up from time I selected or looking good imo. RLOC is up over a buck per share since I mentioned it. ANR is up too but it's been trading sideways for the most part. I think that one goes up quickly after midterm elections. I sold ACHN of course and expected a pullback which is exactly what it's been doing. I've not added shares again yet but am watching it. SGI is up over a buck a share too. AMD continues to look great but remember, I bought at those lows under $2 however; I think that one goes to $20 not too long from now but not this year which is more than half over.
I still like all the stocks I've posted about so there really hasn't been a change in my opinions. I added some ANAD near their 52 wk lows recently and believe a 400% increase pps from current prices is highly probable. Happy 4th everyone. I'll be taking some time off during the summer which simply means I won't be trading full time. It's hard to take me away from a laptop when the market is open lol and I don't like Iphones or other things to trade on. I'll be using a laptop as long as they make them. Easy to pack, easy to not just trade stocks but to catch a good movie on a screen large enough to actually see something while a cell phone is no way for me to watch a movie. BTW, I do believe ANR turns out to be the best of them all looking out a year from now and two years as for those stocks trading under $5. IBM, CAT, GOOG are three of the best tho. There is only one social media that I think can double in PPS from here and that would be LNKD. I'm no fan of FB & do believe that is a bad investment. JMO
UPDATE 6/16/14: Late night or early morning. I'll be watching RLOC closely for a pullback. It was up yesterday and I see buying pressure but I really think it needs to come back down a little lower first but it will be in the teens again for a nice profit imo. Cash rich, insider buying. ALU, SGI are looking really good and of course I did sell ACHN as stated before at a profit. It might go higher before next pullback and that's fine. I'll be pleased to buy back in at more reasonable prices. It's now overpriced for me. ANR is one of the most hated stocks and there is a lot of selling pressure on that one and I sure would like to get shares under $3 if possible before midterm elections because Republicans likely to win and that means coal will shoot up quickly. If Republicans win midterms as I expect in a big way then Democrats will win the Presidency again in 2016 so that would mean that year, I'd be buying beaten down stocks that tend to go up post a Democratic victory. Stock market is Math+Social Psychology+X=Y=Success but X and Y are my trade secrets and everyone has to find their own but they better know the first two. imo
UPDATE 6/16/14 MARKET HOURS: I'm going to be changing profile of times buying and selling. I kept saying ACHN was good post the crash it had and I bought and sold then bought and have sold again. It did a double in a day last week so I am now out on ACHN but will look to get back in a couple bucks lower. Today, I'm watching ZNGA and will this week in hopes people are ignorant and panic based on dumb news of delisting which is so not going to happen imo. Company has zero debt and looks great to me but I'd love to buy at very low prices so you see that 0.20 per share small figure sitting there today? LOL I'd love to get a couple thousand shares for that price but I know it's not really going that low but thought it funny to set a day order for that amount but have various low priced amounts set and I know what I am wiling to pay. AMD looks good and I like ALU too. I think ALU will be up near 500% by end of next year or before. Will update profile later with what and when am buying as well as selling. Take care and have a great trading week. ANR? I am ready to add shares!
UPDATE market close 5/20/14: I want to talk about some of my failure stocks over the last three years on here today and mention others that are going to do very well. Are your stocks down today? High chance they are because Dow Down 0.83% Nasdaq Down 0.70% so both are down and I notice many good companies down and some where panic selling has been the trademark of the year like ANR are down too although someone looks to be interested AF in getting a couple hundred thousand shares compared to someone willing to sell 30 thousand shares? Guess which one I think is the smarter one? To be selling ANR at any price under $5 unless trading in and out is just insane imo. ANR will be up big in November this year. imo
My stock of the day is REE. Sure, ZNGA, ACI, ANR, AMD, SIRI, ACHN and many others I have mentioned are going to perform well long term imo but I think REE is being underestimated.
Now, I have mentioned many times stocks I selected at lows and how they went up big like groupon, first solar, AA, BAC and many others and some of those have pulled bake and are time to buy again and I have mentioned the one that so far has just not worked out as I expected but not enough. I need to mention it more because it is down a lot from the $5 entry and in a way that is not just down but is real iffy so it is either going to zero or it is going to perform well just later than expected and I am not sure which and that is MCO Molycorp. It's half the price I mentioned it at lower and not just a silly panic way like ANR but for more objective reasons. I have zero concern over it since I never put a penny more in than can afford to lose but it is strange how the US government seems to want China to have the monopoly on Rare Earth Minerals when without them, you cannot even turn a TV on or have one let alone a pc or fly in a plane or drive a car because rare earth minerals are needed for nearly every type of technology to work. I really didn't believe the States would allow it to happen and still not sure it will but Republicans are in control over the House while Democrats still control the Senate and as always, a President is more just a figurehead to get blame or credit since he cannot even raise or lower taxes let alone literally declare war on coal or other things economically. MCP can be a very important company to the States more so than banks imo and equal to coal since you know that pie of energy coal is the majority and coal and gas combine are about 70% of our energy so to think ANR or others are going under is just crazy but with MCP, it looks like they would rather buy from China! Who controls things? CONGRESS and the USSC so that is where the blame goes most. This is a midterm election year and it looks to me like you Republicans have a good chance of gaining in the House and taking the Senate and you already have a Republican USSC and I believe you are big on coal so ANR should rocket in November but what are you on Rare Earth Minerals? Do you want China to have the monopoly or should the States prevent that? Call your local Reps in each party to ensure the States and Canada have those monopolies not CHINA. Canada is our closest allies then onto the UK, FRANCE, Germany and other powerful nations then weaker ones like Israel. I know, they have a great air-force but they could win no war with Iran so they are in fact weak and cannot use nukes so we basically continue through tax money pay for their economic survival just as we do for Saudi Arabia each year but YOU ARE NOT TOLD.
Bottom line is I am not sure about MCP but it is the worst performing of my picks of three years and perhaps the only one that has not worked out. I am still not sure if it works out or not but with all the others that have done so well it's not some financial problem more than a penny lost on the street but still, I like to get them all right not just 99 out of 100. I will continue to watch progress of MCP or lack thereof. In the mean time, you will find me buying ANR more than any other stock at this time.
New update morning 5/14/14: SIRI was up yesterday and as all here know is one of my selections all the way back to 20 cents a share. SIRI is NOT doing a R/S and they have said so and they are going to do a stock buyback and it is my opinion they would be shrewd to retire those stocks to bring down number of outstanding shares. They are about to become the major factor in that given sector so point and figure charting which show a $9 target I believe is correct but low figured seen here http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=SIRI,P&listNum=
I believe SIRI wants those institutional buyers who cannot buy under $10 and some not under $20 and I also believe SIRI will be a $50 stock w/o needs of any r/s based on sector, position in it, future huge revenue to come along with stock buybacks and if smart and retire shares they buyback it takes out all those outstanding shares which forces prices higher. Great stock to own imo
ACHN sure saw some action in the last trading week :) WOW, it even has some range in it to do some trades too. I think all is fine with ACHN
ZNGA comes to mind and has been a selection of mine now since it's lowest prices. I am the one who said unless bought out, it would last longer than FB and I believe FB to be a poor investment. ZNGA might surprise people in near future imo but I get this idea by investigating things that are obviously public information.Will it pullback some first or continue up? I don't know for sure but I do know it will soon double imo and continue on up from there. I bought recently when it was at prices too good to pass by however; even the prices right now are great to buy at imo and I might do so more buying there and believe this stock is not as high risks as other think. JMO
ANR is the one so many feel is doomed and I like that because that is called panic and I tend to buy on that. ANR is not going bankrupt and if anyone bothers to do research they find ANR is already in recovery so take a look at book value to see where stock should be trading three times higher than book but look how much lower stock price is than book. ANR, ACI & BTU will be fine and I believe this about WLT as well so ANR is a great buy at this time. imo
AMD is getting better looking all the time and I have no doubts people think I am nuts for having said it is a $20 in the making but then what came out? News of opinions of it being worth $15 or heading there and I agree but think that is a conservative guess or prediction and always okay to be conservative on stock prices. Heck, I think it is going to $40 so thinking that way and saying $20s is me being conservative just like I believe ANR is going to $40s I post when in my mind $60s more like it so I am always going to post what is conservative prices to me so when they go past those prices, it looks better lol
What about AEZS? I think it will stay pretty flat for a while but a day comes, drug near ready to be out or some major objective news and people wake to see a stock they didn't own near a buck trading at $10 that same day and of course just as those in the red get angry people who miss out get that way too but those are emotions and have no place in the markets. AEZS is going to $10 imo.
My pick of the week is probably ZNGA for this week.
As for some others I have listed; X is going to $50, BAC to $50s, AA to $40s and as for Apple, so many seem to think it is the best company out there when in reality it is far from it imo but not going to try and changes minds so if the post split brings in a $60-$70 stock price, I believe it doubles quickly and is at $120 per share probably in five trade days post that number. That being said, some will simply get in and buy a couple shares to make a double and get out while others will really want to go long term, hold in what is likely to be green and collect the dividend. I won't be one of those who wants to stay in AAPL anymore. I did that long ago so these days it is more of a trade to me. It is not IBM and will not be trading a hundred years from now like IBM imo. I really believe AAPL to be a one pony show to tell ya the truth and they seem so secure in their few products and act as if they can never fall, I don't like that and believe it makes a stock risky for future. This is where AMD is doing opposite and looking at the future and is why they are going to $20s in near future so AMD great one if one wants profits. imo so perhaps ZNGA and AMD could be the two stocks of the week and ANR as a third and you already know I am long in all three and could add more shares at anytime and or trade too. I look forward to an IBM 2 for one split or at the least another 3 for 1 because that would be a great long term investment. It wouldn't double as fast as AAPL but it would slowly work its way back up to highs within a year and there would be dividends too. SVM looks interesting as does REE too.
Oh, to the person who asked why up so early or late and why I never age if I am a Vampire; of course I am. I am older than the Pyramids, was good friends with Cleopatra and she didn't commit suicide. We were there together alone in her Palace when her servant dress as her and took the snake bite as we fled under the City and under what had been the Great Library to a boat waiting for us and lived well until her passing at age 80. She was still a lovely woman even as she grew older and I still looked boyish. We were married of course so it was all legit nothing morally wrong according to the Moon Goddess but I was already thousands of years old by then so at 80 she was like a young woman to me. In more modern times, we Vampires have to use mind melding of human thought so people believe they are our parents and as time goes by and we don't age, we simply have to figure out ways of telling DVM places there must have obviously been a mistake of year so a 6 is really an 8 or something lol Hope you guys liked that. Poor Cleo, she was a wonderful woman but just not so great with money unless it had her picture on it. LOL
Afternoon just before market close 5/9/14 looks like a buyer lol or buyers on ACHN with price action.
New update below:
Longer comments ahead beware lol Just opinions of course and remember, I am not here to tell people to buy, sell or hold any stock. Like you guys, I just have some opinions and am active in the markets. I do have great concerns of young people or those with little money placing it into the markets because of the risks of the markets so I always say never put a penny more in than you can afford a total loss of and that is really the only advice I give because it is prudent, safe and logical. It would break my heart if someone bought or sold a stock based on my opinions and lost money if the person really could not afford a loss.
UPDATE 5/09/14 early morning: First, ACHN lol and the reason for the laughs is it is my opinion there is some manipulation going on there but in a fun way because those doing it are not too bright and I've been having a great time playing with them and getting in on every new low while tricking them into thinking a few shares at a higher price is all I can do lol I suspect there is a high probability that online brokerage account secrets are shared with MMs as in does that person have X amount of money to do this or that and other things will not mention but I have no proof of this but as protection in case am correct, I use a trust in one brokerage and my name in another and look poverty stricken in one to sort of play with them and bust them big with the other account buying or selling shares lol They will never know it is really just one person but not their business right? ACHN is at good levels to buy imo even in breakdown chart mode so even if it dropped another buck who cares? Just better prices to buy at since that stock will do well down the road PPS imo.
As for more serious stocks; AMD still looks fantastic as does ANR if you go by charts to get in at good levels if you are doing some trading too. If just in desire to buy, forget and hold then looks fine to just buy even at their 52 wk highs which they are not trading at. I posted a link per energy in the States before as to why no worry over coal or gas. Coal and gas combine make up the vast majority of energy in the States and Coal still lead in the pie chart so there is nothing they could do to change that anytime soon even if there really were a good reason to but I don't buy into global warming and if you forget media and graphs and look at the 67% growth of the Pole from pics in Space dated August 2012 compared to same month 2013, you see the truth and yep, it is growing! We are back in the normal global cooling so 9 of 10 winters will be down right cold with a milder one tossed in but mild compared to mild of the 30 years warming pattern means cold just not as cold as last winter so next winter will be cold but not as cold in the NE as last yet colder in the SE and the winter after that could be colder than even last winter when Niagara Falls froze TWICE and Lake superior froze too at highest levels in US history. The 1920s were a warm phase like the one we just came out of but much warmer so I still say the 1920s were part of a 30 year warm phase that was the warmest in US history with our last warm phase the 2nd warmest but mass media this time people were fed BS so expect soon to hear we are heading into an Ice Age because of humans with global warming and that somehow we are about to reverse the NAO or some bull. BTW, the NAO will trend more negative next 29 years on average as will the PDO which is already locked into cold phase and the AO will tend to be forced to trend negative many winters which is what brings that real cold down in combination with a negative NAO. More stocks below again:
Still looking AMD YPF MNKD KOOL DRYS CLF BEAT ANV AA HOLL ZNGA X DGC.TO
evi gpl usu, ovly nka one pran svm gsb prss chgg oink rlgt angi cpah nvlt cyccp usmd AGI TGD QTM TGD RIOM SVM SAND EXK AEZS LF NTWK SPRT NKA OVTI THLD LOV NNVC AGI TGD QTM TGD RIOM SVM SAND EXK AEZS LF NTWK SPRT NKA SGLB SSYS HPQ DDD XONE VJET GOE.PA CAMT ADSK DASTY EXA PMTC fCIMT ANSS ONVO.PK PRCP FARO ACHN NEM MCP.AX MCOX MCIG BSBR ACI AUY MUS REE MCZ ZNGA AEZS RFMD XRX CIG TEAR PZE CIG QBA LEI SBS GFA SID EBR GENE GGB WHX ELP CPL IPCI LIVE SMI SIDCPL GGB SPRT AEZS, tri sfnc gnc ctbi pir sjm etrm NEM NOR SVM and yes, I repeated some symbols here since I did a copy/paste and deleted some study from my own research area so chances are if I repeated a symbol, it looked like significant to me on charts. Some are in caps and others not but that means nothing.
SVM is my pick of the day and it has been on my list a while. I am looking at REE again so it is on there too
UPDATE 5/02/14 MARKET CLOSE: ANR of course blasted off and has in fact hit bottom so our 52 week lows look to be the bottom and Q1 is always the negative Q as most should know so next Q should show improvement as this sector is now starting to make a comeback from the out of favor three year mode so expect end of this year for ANR, ACI, BTU and others to be moving north. AMD is what I said at five year low, a great stock starting to diversify and that one is going to $20s down the road and ANR btw $40s imo. SIRI is going to do well too.
I'm turning more attention again on SVM and ALU since both look like they have hit bottom and next year or so will more than triple. Apple will be a great fast double for those who buy on split so that is no brainer there and many will want to just stay long but I will get in and out at 100-200% profit. You know the stock will double and then some more quickly because people many years too late want in on a one product company that has seen its best days imo so it is not some long term investment like Google or IBM imo. I'm still interested in AEZS & ACHN and believe both our going up 400% pps. ZNGA is still a good choice too even after the lows when I first selected it since it will at least double from current prices. It has no debt and over a billion in cash so another no brainer stock imo. Both X and AA have a good 100% more to go from current prices but this doesn't mean they won't go lower first just like BAC is going to $50 and it hit 52 week high as I predicted year before last. It was the one I paid about 4 bucks for when everyone was in a panic a few years ago. AEO looks interesting as do a few other clothing lines. It's undervalued for sure imo. I'll be adding about 20 more stocks next week. So far last three years here on seeking alpha, I have been lucky or something since cannot think of any selections that went opposite of what I predicted but again; I do not post for people to buy, sell or hold based on my comments. Those who say it doesn't take much time in market research are fools because it does take a lot of time after hours researching stocks in order to be correct on outcomes.
2/19/14 good PO point and figure: AMD YPF MNKD KOOL DRYS CLF BEAT ANV AA HOLL ZNGA X DGC.TO
evi gpl usu
ovly nka one pran svm gsb prss chgg oink rlgt angi cpah nvlt cyccp usmd AGI TGD QTM TGD RIOM SVM SAND EXK AEZS LF NTWK SPRT NKA OVTI THLD LOV NNVC AGI TGD QTM TGD RIOM SVM SAND EXK AEZS LF NTWK SPRT NKA SGLB SSYS HPQ DDD XONE VJET GOE.PA CAMT ADSK DASTY EXA PMTC fCIMT ANSS ONVO.PK PRCP FARO ACHN NEM MCP.AX MCOX MCIG BSBR ACI AUY MUS REE MCZ ZNGA AEZS RFMD XRX CIG TEAR PZE CIG QBA LEI SBS GFA SID EBR GENE GGB WHX ELP CPL IPCI LIVE SMI SIDCPL GGB SPRT AEZS
tri sfnc gnc ctbi pir sjm etrm NEM NOR SVM
UPDATE 4/29/14 MARKET CLOSE: Why ANR popped today. ANR is going back to $40 in next 36 months, is not going out of business and likely will not do a R/S because once sector turns around the stock literally could shoot up ten bucks in a week or five in a day but the reason it's up today is spoofing or BS as we used to call it with shorts. No sane short is actually short the stock betting it goes lower. In fact, smart shorts went short in the 50s and covered by 9 or ten bucks, make huge money and got out. The shorts now are two classes, typical dumb people who don't know the markets and the majority are spoofing trying to scare longs because they have short positions set in a way to cover fast and go long because they know the stock is going up a thousand percent as soon as the next seven months but they want to go long as the lowest possible prices and to do that they want to scare inexperienced longs by just simply seeing not investigating or understanding the short positions. I investigated and am experienced and no real short expects this stock to go much lower so it is typical manipulation but won't last much longer since ANR has hit a bottom. I will likely be adding to shares this week and not selling lower than $40 on longs but sure will trade the stock to pay for all longs but ANR has hit a bottom at 52 week low imo even in breakdown mode with a price down there in low 3s not likely to hit but sure would be great if it did but look at book value nearly 20 bucks a share and cash per share, scientists gave in on global warming admitting they were wrong, the arctic ice mass grew 67% between 2012-2013 pics from Space prove and am sure it has grown more this year but that data comes out in August. There is no such thing as man-made climate change. Humans could not change climate if they set off ever nuke on earth. They could cause it to get cold for a year but back to mother nature again after that so humans have nothing to do with climate other than City Heat Island Effect and humans are natural to the planet so not a big deal the earth cannot deal with but the Sun controls about 98% of climate, earth wobble 1% so leaves little even for volcanoes let alone humans so give up people on the BS global warming. Humans do cause pollution for selves and other animals but ANR is a clean coal so news is ANR is just fine imo.
AMD is due for a pullback after the runup of course and I will add shares there too. SIRI is going to 9 bucks at the least this year so very good buy there.
ACHN is looking interesting and AEZS once it pops will be around two bucks by then and end at ten bucks end of a given day. ZNGA which I mentioned at five year low how gone up hundred of percentage points just like groupon and First Solar did but is going to double digits so figure another hundred percent on that one this year imo. AAPL although past peak and will just decline in years to come will be a fast 100% profit post split so buying day of split, holding a few days and getting out at 100% will be easy there but that is no long term investment. One of worst stocks in the market because the hype over something that reached peak years ago and is about 400 bucks too high if not more but people want to own shares in it so will like fools go long term post split while I will buy and sell at at least a hundred percent profit imo IBM continues to be the best long term investment in the markets so a split in future there would be a great time to buy and just hold 40 years for the kids, old age etc and those already over 50 hold 25 years then of course liquidate all stocks at 75 and just trade for fun health permitting imo. Not wise to own shares long term at over 75 unless holding in a trust to pass down for the kids with instructions to not sell shares soon etc.. CSCO is starting to look better again so is a buy imo I like SGI and think it's undervalued so that is a buy imo ALU is going up a thousand percentage points so that is obvious buy imo
Will post back later.Good luck to all who have made huge money on my pics and those new and maybe in red I'd just hold and forget about them for a year or three and have limit orders set to sell and get on with life but I have never said buy sell or hold anything. I simply state my opinions which during my time on seeking alpha if you go by my posts dating way back have been right so far other than one stock. That stock is MCP I put it at a buy at 5 bucks and that is basically where it is now but those who bought lower and sold have share for free long so not a big deal and MCP could end at over a hundred a share yet or at zero. Too soon to know but I would bet on a hundred before zero if I had to. JMO as always.
UPDATE 4/24/14 MARKET CLOSE: We saw ANR with a big run-up because as I've said all along coal is not dead. The States would go out of business if coal shutdown in the next five years or more. Solar and wind power don't do the trick. It takes sun and wind and many places are usually cloudy and not windy enough most of the year and it would take 30 years for growth in those industries to even make a mark in production in the US anyway so it is going to be clean coal since it's cheaper and more productive. That said, I look at the most actives like most of you and I look for the losers of the day and I also look at stocks being taken off major indexes and it looks as ANR no longer qualifies for one because of share-price and what has been going on so I look for some good panic selling there for likely the best prices we are going to see in that company with coal just starting to turn around until people realize it can go right back on the index next year or a bigger one later as it grows but it was not the only one taken off things so I'm looking at those too for reasons why and if for silly reasons like ANR, be sure I am interested in buy the stock as it will likely plummet the next day or so in trading. I take the Buffett statement seriously and I proceed in that way and have all along.
UPDATE 4/22/14 We saw AMD pop for sure and I also took some profits obviously like many do to protect against longs to hold and I will expect the stock to pullback soon after people take some profits and swing traders sell all for profits etc but AMD will be going up more than double these prices this year imo so it's still a good investment. I think it's going to the 20s over time because it has one great CEO whom I think was with IBM at one time so he has vast knowledge of things. I continue to stand by all my picks below and not likely to change. JMO
UPDATE 4/17/14 I'm still bullish on ZNGA even though it is not at the lows when I selected it when everyone said it could never make it. I said then it would be around longer than FB unless bought out and I still believe that. I see it doing a double from current prices this year. As for other doubles this very year and then some, I have said all along AMD and ANR would and now I am getting some agreement on that in some articles. Here is one from today. I still proceed with caution because of the DJI being too high.
UPDATE 4/10/14 REMEMBER 7,000 & 9,700 because today during trading hours I'd like to talk about the DJI. I've talked a long time about a gap fill that will happen and last year said there was a chance it would get filled but for sure in the next few years. I forget what percentage I gave for last year but it wasn't too high and would be found on one of my posts since posted many times about it. Going by many variables in economics, mid term elections, market prices of the run-up in the DJI, I have a 67% chance the gap gets filled this year which is a high probability but not 90% and would never have it at 100%. I do know, May and October are historically times of market crashes while some say September but it can happen any month even this month. The reasons I have number to remember is the fact those are rounded numbers of where the DJI went in the flash crash if you open up a chart at max years and look to the right where most seem to think it got filled. It was down around 7000 then it went up and later dipped to around 9700 rounded. That is not a gap fill. It attempted to fill the gap but never did and continued a bull run up. I don't take side publicly in politics because I think the fighting is dividing and harming the nation. It's not patriotic to literally fight over politics as if one party is not an important and valuable American party. Both parties have members theses days that act like the other is either Nazi or Communistic and that is very bad. Neither party is of either of those things and each one wants good things for America but there are great differences in how they believe that can be done which is why we tend to go right for a while then left then right again to keep a balance long term out in the middle of the road. I am middle of the road other than on foreign policy where I tend to be towards the right. I can be liberal on some topics and extremely conservative on other topics so it balances me to middle and I have friends but Republican and Democrat as well as Independents and some who never have voted. We all do fine together since working side by side for a common goal or having fun together is the name of the game and what made the nation great. This all being said, I believe there is a 67% of a gap fill and because there would be panic selling, the DJI could go much lower than where it went last time so it would pass the gap fill, it the old low in there and probably go lower. This would mean holding shares in a bad company on the brink would be better to take a loss and get out while companies that are going to survive and simply drop low in a crash would be ones I would hold and ride the storm out but always keeping cash on the sides to go in near the bottom starting at the crash with limit orders already set for perhaps a 65% plunge in prices. Nothing wrong with holding a limit order for IBM for 10 bucks right? It can be changed but if the market were to crash, I would then be going in hard into great companies like IBM, CSCO and others you all know about at the lowest possible prices and those I believe are far too low now like ANR, AMD, SIRI, ACHN and others on here that I've talked about, I will just HOLD through it and sure if a crash came, those stocks would be down big for a short time but adding shares at those lows would bring my average down close to those lows because I could afford to buy many more shares which took my risks out but I tend to trade swing trade type and hold shares with profits anyway so high chance, I have little risk if all went to zero but that take time to do so if a crash happened when one was still holding risk, they would either have money to go in hard or simply ride it out which is why the market is not a good place for a nervous person, angry person or sensitive person emotionally. People can have heart attacks of the market. The jumping out of buildings in 29 was exaggerated but there were many heart attacks. Many lost everything while others became very wealthy overnight. Those short at the time and those who went in after the crash or had held and went in strong did well while those who sold in panic lost everything. I DO NOT PANIC and neither should you. I don't blame others for natural things like the market going up or down and I don't like to give out too much advice because I'm not a Broker in the stock market. I was one in Real Estate which is much different but finance is similar in some areas but Real Estate is based more on banking while the markets more on accounting and accounting is the key and I did take accounting in College and made and A on the Debits to the left credits to the right as you accountants remember. I'm not an accountant but I know some about it and how different it is than banking and why bankers need accountants to go in to fix things and since even though I wanted a flat tax pay as you go, I also realize why in the States it can never happen so if you are looking for that forget it because never going to happen. Either way, I am not making any changes on my thoughts on stocks posted here and like always saying keep cash on the side and I just want to remind people the DJI is too high and a huge pullback likely this year so do not panic if it happens. I'll talk more about this as time goes on this month and year.
Update: 4/4/14 market close. Keep an eye on these stocks; AAPL, GOOG, IBM, ISRG, MA for any splits since that would be a good time to buy usually post split so even AAPL that I'm not a huge fan of would do well after a split fairly fast with likely near a 100% profit in a month.
ZNGA has done very well since I listed it as a buy on the lows and I'm noticing others doing the same while others are still down most above low but a couple making new lows which means I simply buy more shares like ANR for example if one bothers to look at book value and cash per share it is insane to not be buying that one imo.
Update 4/3/14 night: I see the article on fool or somewhere about would AAPL buy AMD and sure, AAPL could still afford to do it since AAPL has a few more years before it comes crashing down as a worn-out tech stock like the giants before it imo but they are not likely to buy AMD since too dumb since the CEO died. That company had simply gone down since its CEO died because it was a one man show and that is it. imo but either way; AMD can do well on its own and reach those $20s in the next year or two imo so not a concern. ANR am still bullish on if anyone wondering and same on SIRI of course but I am just recently back in that one. Was in under 20 cents. I thought it was 20 cents but check and closer to a dime but sold at 2.77 not 2.50 but still same areas and am back in since I believe that is a $50 stock in the making going out a couple years and some rewards this year like 300% etc.. imo SVM risky but interesting since could be 300%, ARO & AEO look like great prices. BODY is that really risky one but with that one you will either end up making a fortune buying under two bucks and think it is around a buck now or will simply lose ever dime so it is one that I might take some profits on something and put in there to see if it does well or not and if not, not a big deal. If it did then I would be holding a $15 stock that I paid what? A buck 14 or something for? Huge increase in gains if that worked out. I do like SLW of course going long and maybe I am confused but it seems I bought that one years ago for nothing. It seems like I remember buying at least under $3 a couple times before but would have to go open a chart to make sure am correct or dig up old info but have a pretty good memory and thousands of stock symbols memorize and I think SLW is one I paid a couple bucks for but either way, it is priced great now for this given moment in time. imo NOW, as I remember when I was a Broker in real estate location, location, location; this holds true of IBM, IBM, IBM imo. IBM is the goal to have all funds in eventually and then make bucks on the next split with GOOG being in there and a couple others.
Update during trading day 4/2/14: AUY is in my list below and sure, I would like it back down where it has been before half the price but believe it is a good price where it is so long when buying someone one can average down. What about profits on stocks? Well, I usually don't post hey everyone I am selling today like on this or that stock but I think I did on First Solar that got for what $13 or something around there and said it is going to $50s and it did pretty soon and sure I sold so selling for me is sometimes there is a good profit in account so I figure the cost coming and going and just sell and wait to get back in and on to another stock for a while which assume everyone else would do and there are times I figures, if I see this amount then sh