J Clinton Hill

Macro, etf investing, research analyst, long/short equity
J Clinton Hill
Macro, ETF investing, research analyst, long/short equity
Contributor since: 2008
Company: Hillbent.com
Hi Phil,
I don't read your stuff that often only b/c I'm pre-occupied with my own research and analysis, but when I do, it is always enlightening and insightful (and creatively entertaining too). Thank you for this recent contribution.
You really identified some of the global socioeconomic realities of our current times as well as the myopic greed of political and capitalist elites who fail to perceive them as well as the fact that we all indeed share the same boat whether we like it or not.
The apathetic "let-them-eat-cake" disposition of the GOP and the "sugar-tit-pacifist" policies of Democrats are both kindling for the flaming embers of revolution that pervade the political atmosphere in America.
On the other side of the coin, I have spent considerable time in Greater China and actually been inside the belly of the beast to witness first-hand the human sacrifice and suffering that enables American consumers to reap the benefits of all those Walmart (I don't mean to single out Walmart as there are many other businesses exploiting the slave labor of emerging market economies) savings. The working conditions in some (not all) of these places are such that they would make a factory portrayed in any Dickens' novel seem like paradise or at least Google's headquarters. My partner is from Mumbai and regularly travels back and forth to India and has shared similar stories.
The world is getting smaller everyday and it is becoming harder to ignore the smell of miserable shit spewing forth from our international neighbors and trading partners. At some point, its toxicity even begins to harm us. So much for the "better them than me" attitude, eh?
After reading some of these comments, do you see any parallels to the attitudes prevalent in the dark ages of Europe as the Church jealously guarded its oppressive powers over society and its institutions while the Age of Reason and Enlightenment challenged and exposed the fallibility of many of its principles and beliefs?
As a former student of modern economic history, I completely get what you are saying and think that anyone who misconstrues or misinterprets your message as anti-capitalist are obviously mental midgets cowering in fear of the potential of real human progress and vainly seeking protection from the walls of the "status-quo". However, history teaches us that change, for better or worse, is inevitable. Our founding fathers, in their great wisdom, recognized this and made provisions for such.
By the way, I actually have a copy of the Communist Manifesto pamphlet, but for justifiable paranoia have carefully placed it next to my Declaration of Independence and U.S. Constitution booklets, lest I too be wrongfully accused of philosophical-political heresy or, even worse, Marxist economic idolatry.
Just saying... Anyway, good stuff man... Keep it coming...
i presume you are making an indirect reference to MMR since it's the only energy company on this list of 23 stocks. if so, pardon me for calling your "baby" ugly.
here's my two cent take on MMR :
positives: 1) company had a very positive earnings surprise report last week; 2) discovery in the gulf of mexico is a positive; and 3) potential bottom in natural gas prices will help #s going forward.
negatives: 1) most of stock's recent move due to a nasty short squeeze due to very high % float being short; 2) stock appears to be fully valued for now so risk to reward ratio not as favorable; 3) its free cash flow position is also somewhat tenuous; 4) if global economic recovery is weak, then demand for energy will remain weak & yield lower oil prices; 5) potential for a stronger dollar has negative implications for oil prices.
facts and circumstances do change and when they do so materially, then i'm inclined to changing my opinion. as prefaced in this report, this screen is not perfect. no one (myself included) has a monopoly on market intelligence.
i am not an energy analyst or geologist, but based upon proprietary quant & alorithimic model, the stock looks overbought.
i welcome you to share your existing understanding of the oil industry and especially your insight on MMR for the benefit of myself and other readers.
so go for it dude or dudette!
Thanks... I look forward to sharing my thoughts and insights with SA's readers...
Cheers for the New Year!
Hey OG,
You're welcome. It's really good to hear from you. I sincerely appreciate your support over the past 18 months or so during my contributorship @ SA.
Embracing SA's spirit of the democratization of financial information, I hope that I also can make a meaningful contribution for a wide audience of investors by providing them with essential and timely info and/or efficiently referring them to other resources with the Market Atlas and Hillbent Favorites expandable menus.
Take care and all the best to you as well...
To all:
Happy Thanksgiving and Thank you for your kind words...
great insight.... thanks....
On Nov 24 08:52 PM untrusting investor wrote:
> Clinton,
> You missed a possibly major bearish factor. Effective Dec.01/09 the
> margin requirements for 2x and 3x ETF, as per new regulation, will
> now double and triple.
> This effective reduction in margin credit may well have a pretty
> significant effect on the 2x and 3x ETF's and cause some significant
> selling in these ETF's. In our view, this will pretty much kill off
> or at worst make virtually all 2x-3x ETF's a totally unattractive
> trading vehicle.
> If that is not pretty bearish, not sure what would be.
<img class="authors_reply" src="static.seekingalpha.co...">

<img class="authors_reply" src="static.seekingalp...

<img class="authors_reply" src="static.seekingalp...

I thank God for common sense and the ability to adapt to sudden change...
three things work against shorting PSEC:
1) the overall market direction which is still technically bullish regardless of one's take on the fundamentals... typically, 3 out of every 4 stocks move with the market direction regardless of their own underlying fundamentals...
2) this stock is overbought, but it's short-term trend is up and momentum's rate of change has re-accelerated...
3) shorts must be getting nervous with the CEO buying @ $936k worth of stock... i'd be cautious too... this could signal a potential turnaround... PSEC still has exposure to potential writedowns, but if the economy improves then risk dissipates. theorectically no should know the company better than its CEO... however, i can't say this with certainty
in situations like this, i am reminded of Warren Buffet's Ted Williams baseball lesson, i.e. wait for the right pitch to swing. in other words know your strike zone or when reward outweighs the risks. unlike baseball, i don't have to swing at anything, whether i like it or not. when a stock like PSEC throws a curveball (huge insider purchase) like today, i simply step aside b/c there are plenty of other pitches (i.e. stocks) to swing at for a bullish or bearish hit...
On Nov 23 03:54 PM Freya wrote:
> So far the Insider Purchase seems to have counteracted your vote
> but I still hope you are right.
<img class="authors_reply" src="static.seekingalpha.co...">

Mr. Yellowhoard,
Thanks so much for bringing this to my attention. I was a little perplexed initially until I checked the software program and data.
This is a database error. We recently added CRBQ to our trend monitor and transferred it from commodities to key industries. The problem originates in CRBQ (a relatively new ETF) not having enough historical data yet to determine intermediate or long-term trends. By default, the software reads it as negative unless the code is manually tweaked to fix this.
Going forward, this should be resolved. We experienced the same issue with VNM when we initiated coverage on it. This one slipped thru the cracks.
Therefore, the short-term trend for CRBQ is up while intermediate and long-term trends are N/A/. So just ignore these as bad data results.
Guys like you make the world go 'round! Again, thanks so much for pointing this out to me.
Have a great Thanksgiving week and may the gods favor both you and your country club real estate development project.
On Nov 22 06:10 PM yellowhoard wrote:
> Mr. Hill,
> I noticed that CRBQ is looking down intermediate and long term.<br/>
> Given that it is composed of resource producers, which are all green
> on your table, I'm hoping that you can explain the divergence?<br/>...
> in advance!
Greetings Old Trader,
I think that it's a helluva lot easier to get that jingle out of our heads than getting rid of our debt.
Appreciate the comments....
On Nov 18 06:50 PM Old Trader wrote:
> Mr. Hill,
> DAMN you!!! I've always HATED that song, and now its running through
> my head!
> Seriously, I think your article is pretty much "spot on".
thx... good catch...
On Nov 17 08:38 AM Roger Knights wrote:
> Typo: "2. 28% price up &amp; price down"
> should read:
> "2. 28% price up &amp; volume down"
to all commenters:
i really really appreciate your comments on this topic. it has been quite enlightening and i'm sure quite beneficial to other readers.
my schedule does not permit me to respond to some of these comments today (responsibilities of being an investment advisor compete jealously with my interests in blogging)...
note that i have an interview with a CEO from a infrastructure component of the H2 developing industry and plan to share this with readers in a post in the very near future (i.e. as soon as i get time)
keep the comments coming... investing public needs to understand the issues more... unfortunately it doesn't get enough coverage in the media...
great... thanks...
On Nov 04 10:18 AM Mark Anthony wrote:
> Mr. Clinton you said:
> "There are no insights on immediate gratification investment strategies
> to be gleaned from this article."
> One immediate gratification from a hydrogen economy is the precious
> metal palladium, and that immediately leads to Montana based Stillwater
> Mining, SWC.
> What is the connection between President Bush, President Putin, Hydrogen
> Economy and their secret deal on a palladium mine? Read this article:
> www.motherjones.com/en...
> That one article triggered my interest in palladium and then I discovered
> not only hydrogen has something to do with palladium. The isotope,
> deuterium, has even much more to do with palladium. And deuterium
> is our energy future, due to a new science called Cold Fusion, now
> known as condensed matter nuclear reactions.
> CBS 60 Minutes aired a program on Cold Fusion on April 19, 2009,
> which is a must watch. Follow the link here to watch the CBS program
> on Cold Fusion:
> stockology.blogspot.co...
> seekingalpha.com/autho...
to all readers:
thank you for your comments... may the ghost of tom joad live on and forever inside each and every one of us!!!
no one can stop us!!!
note that this title is misleading as the original has been edited by SA
it originally read: "future for hydrogen fueled cars converges on the present" which has different implications than "hydrogen fueled cars become a thing of the present"
if you read between the lines of this story, innovation will eventually get us off oil.... whether its via EV or H2 or Solar or whatever...
thank you...
yes, this data is available on a historical basis in database formatted reports, but is reserved for premium research reports, special studies, and consultative retainers...
hillbent uses proprietary indicators & models for tracking the flow of capital markets trends and correlation analysis between key asset classes, industries, and sectors which are mimicked or represented by various liquid indices, exchange traded funds, and individual stocks trading on U.S. exchanges...
glad you enjoyed the report and found it useful...
have a great week...
On Nov 01 11:51 AM Aquater wrote:
> Excellent analysis and a wealth of data to digest for investment
> purposes. Data is systematically organized and presented in comparable
> way. Synoptic coverage is highly remarkable, to say the least.
> Nary an aspect of investment world is left untreated.
> The next question: Can this data be available on historical basis
> so one can see how an investment instrument has moved, and from which
> position, to where it is currently?
> Any way, the author needs to be commended and congratulated on achieving
> a thorough, comprehensive and highly useful analytical presentation
> of current investment data.
i normally don't comment on comments for other bloggers, but as a proponent of free market capitalism, i philosophically disagree with your proposed solutions...
such measures would highly restrict the freedom of choice and flow of capital to both competitive or even more consumer/friendly business models...
in essence, it would be akin to shooting ourselves in the stomach just to get to the predators who stalk us from behind...
if you are searching for a utopia or sugar tit in the sky, you might be better off relocating to venezuela or someplace similar if you're really serious about this..
On Nov 01 07:01 AM apppro wrote:
> What happened this week is just another and perhaps best/final case
> into why we must stop this short-term option trader/traitor mentality
> &amp; trading. I’ll be the first to admit that maybe the DOW and
> S&amp;P have as some have complained, “Gone too far in too short
> a period of time!” Without going back to my original argument that
> they’re basing that moronic statement on a level we should have NEVER
> been at in the 1st place, let’s just say that maybe the markets have
> gone a little higher then maybe their actual worth is based on. As
> to whether the DOW or other indices are fairly valued, I give your
> opinion above worth noting.
> For me I take a far longer view. We’ve taken out all the added fluff
> that they say was added with all that leverage since 2004, and actually
> we’re even back to 1999 levels. Fair? Doesn’t sound fair to me, but
> that’s what we allowed to be done.
> Just look at this past week’s chart of JPM Chase.
> finance.yahoo.com/echa...;range=5d;indicator=vo...
> Monday and Tuesday were ok and non-events on no news. On Wednesday
> the entire market sold off at the open and never recovered. The news
> again was really a non-event, but some media pundits &amp; traders/traitors
> brought back that ‘double deep’ crappola and fear spread throughout.
> Thursday reality set back in when GREAT GDP and just ok employment
> #’s came out.. the markets recovered, but those traders/traitors
> couldn’t let it go. CNBS had a parade of naysayer pundits on the
> show Friday morning and when basically so-so spending and income
> numbers came out at 8:30 am (These numbers were exactly as expected
> and should have been a non-event.) the short-term option traders/traitors
> had worked everybody up into a sell-off mode and things never looked
> back. 250 points down on the DOW and major levels breached. It was
> a pure disgrace. They tried to blame it on the dollar, on the consumer,
> on anything they could grab a hold of; but when it comes down to
> it, the sell-off was a well orchestrated, end-of-the-month options
> traders/traitors manipulated disaster.
> You may ask, “Why should I care? I’m not in the market or I own mutual
> funds, why should this matter to me?” It matters because you may
> be one of those lucky people who still has a job, or one of those
> still trying to find one... all these swings and angst are not healthy.
> They make everyone so full of fear and uncertainty that no one can
> muster up the desire to spend, invest, invent, inspire, etc. And
> don’t make the mistake of thinking that CEO’s of big companies are
> any different. I told you before, you keep bashing someone over the
> head over and over; sooner or later they will break! This is especially
> true of small businesses, the major driver of employment in the U.S.
> Would YOU spend thousands or go into debt to start a new business
> if every 5-minutes someone else is telling you that everything will
> crash in the next 10-minutes? I don’t think so!
> Whether you’re a Republican or Democratic, whether you’re a capitalist
> or socialist, whether you’re a ying or a yang; we MUST ALL start
> to agree upon ONE THING and that is this short-term mentality and
> trading MUST END!
> Revised Tax Rules:
> 1. Capital gains under <6 months - 55% tax on capital gains
> 2. Capital gains 6 > 12 months - 45% tax on capital gains
> 3. Capital gains 1 > 2 years - 35% tax on capital gains
> 4. Capital gains 2 > 5 years - 18% tax on capital gains
> 5. Capital gains 5+ years - 5% tax on capital gains
> 6. Most critical of all — Institute a capital gains tax of 55% on
> ALL short sales not directly tied to a long buy by a licensed hedge
> fund. I'm tired of paying for the pure shorts 3rd vacation home.
thanks for taking the time to share this "valuation compass" for the Dow... it serves will serve as a convenient reference point, especially in the midst of any stormy corrections that might follow...
although some argue that the forward EPS estimates are a bit optimistic, it is more important to consider that the TTM earnings give us a floor and the likelihood of growth from this point is highly probable, so there is upside for the DJ-30...
my investment bias leans towards the "W" recovery camp, but part of my thesis is contingent upon how effectively dollar weakness is managed by the Fed and supported by other central banks...
any pullback should be welcomed as a buying opportunity and that is most likely what we will see from bulls if sellers get too aggressive...
thanks again... really enjoyed your concise report...
the primary purpose of this report is to focus on etf market trends for highly liquid securities that mimic or represent capital market indices, assets, industries, geographical regions, and/or investment themes.
i'm afraid you lose this bet because i did read the gdp report and analyze its driving catalysts. listen, there are plenty of bloggers at SA who focus on economic data events, so you can probably find excellent coverage on this segment of the vast universe of investment finance.
for international bonds, this report currently includes WIP (international inflation protection) and EMB (emerging markets bonds).
starting next week, this report will include the addition of BWX (international treasury bonds).
if you have other suggestions for bond ETFs that are highly liquid and widely followed, please let me know and i will definitely give it consideration.
note that this report will never cover every niche of the ETF universe, but hopefully enough to allow readers to efficiently assess the overall market condition and direction.
thanks for your suggestion... hopefully, it will benefit plenty of others besides yourself.
have a great weekend!
On Oct 31 07:35 PM NEOCON47 wrote:
> Did you look up what caused the GDP to rise?
> The numbers are not healthy nor the Brige Book Report of Oct. 21
> I betcha you didn't.
> Also, with all of these charts, why don't you chart International
> Bonds, ETFS?
<img class="authors_reply" src="static.seekingalpha.co...">

i agree that there should be some form of regulation for hedgefunds, but in my article what i am really getting at is the practice of disclosing privileged info on other clients trading activities in order to attract & retain high velocity traders who generate huge fees for banks.
from this standpoint, brokerage banks are just as guilty and i doubt that there will be any serious legal attention directed toward them.
unfortunately the editor retitled my report in a manner that does not reflect the spirit of my intent as an author.
On Oct 30 10:20 AM john s. gordon wrote:
> there have been laws against insider trading.
> lack of enforcement has always been a problem.
> nonregulation of hedgie funds should never have been permitted.
<img class="authors_reply" src="static.seekingalpha.co...">

no where in this post do i quantify the market being down "5 out of 6" days and/or associate or imply the market being oversold for this reason.
it is true, after today's close, the market is down 5 out of 6 days.
i state that the market is "approaching the boundaries of extremely oversold territory" which implies that this is not yet its current condition. however, it is moving towards "extremely oversold" based upon percentage qualifiers and historically tested models.
nothing is infallible, but if it makes you feel good to give yourself a pat on the back by saying "gotcha" to an analyst/writer, then god bless you...
my determination for the market being overbought or oversold is derived from proprietary technical indicators. during the extended rally, i have labeled the market overbought on several occasions.
when the facts change, i change my opinion. my investment bias is dictated by the trend tables that i have organized and if the trend is down for a short, intermediate, or long term basis then my bias corresponds appropriately with the market trends. you only need refer to the trend tables to learn my investment bias.
if you have followed any of my writings on technical analysis over the years, i continually caution readers that markets can stay overbought or oversold for extended periods of time.
statistically, a disproprotionate percentage of stocks are displaying oversold signals vs. overbought based upon proprietary oscillators and price-volume indicators.
1020 to 1040 is key support zone. if we break 1020, the odds favor us testing 990 levels. until the market arrives at this testing area, it is premature to call things one way or another. the only thing i know is that the short-term trend is down. after i conduct my analysis this evening, my conclusions may be better or worse... let's wait and see...
what i am trying to do is alert people to a potential anomaly and the vulnerability of getting bitch slapped by following the herds of sheeple. i find it quite unusual and disturbing for the market to advance for such a long period of time and flash oversold signals so early after only 5 trailing days of relatively small negative performance.
in terms of overbought or oversold, indicators can be applied to different time frames. Short-term the market is oversold. Intermediate term, the market still remains overbought.
also, if you read my reports regularly, then you should know that i am fundamentally bearish on the market while acknowledging that the technicals have been bullish...
in terms of logic, i am not always linear in my thinking or interpretation of the environments in which i interact...
hopefully this clarifies my investment bias for you and other readers...
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hi cato:
thanks for sharing your research efforts on ENP...
yes, this screen is a quantitative filter for both fundamentals & technicals. i acknowledge in the preface of the report that it is not perfect and unfortunately it is unable to exclude a "MLP"... just based upon its technicals, it slipped thru the cracks and as i write this reply, ENP is down @ 5% in just 3 days vs. the SPY being down @ -2.4% over the same period on an intraday basis.
when used in conjunction with our market direction reports, most of the stocks results yielded from this screen tend to be right..
the whole purpose of this report is to create a reference point for investment ideas and not specific recommendations, which is also strongly emphasized in the preface of this report. in fact, the only thing i recommend is that readers do their own due diligence like you just did before taking any decisive action.
at any given week, the screen can generate up to 40 different stocks, a number that makes it impractical to research thoroughly, especially without compensation...
there is a premium version of this report that includes decision support research for more in-depth fundamental analysis and market-timing... the manner in which i interpret and apply the results is often non-linear and will vary, e.g. ratio spreads, options, and bullish or bearish positions for both babies or dogs. at the moment, the report is currently unavailable to retail investors, but enough clues are provided to point people in the right direction most of the time.
on the surface the report appears to be simple, but there's a lot more substance underneath the hood in terms of algorithms and proprietary inputs. to keep it user friendly, the format is intentionally presented in a simple an streamlined manner. as i have said before, in the right hands of a professional, the report is a pretty versatile tool and comparable to a swiss army knife.
i sincerely appreciate your comments because this report has accomplished another important objective and that is encourage further research efforts from readers and provoke them to share their opinions and discoveries for the benefit of others as well as themselves.
if i could get more people to take me to the mat like you just did, then i consider myself to have done my job well, i.e. empower people to help themselves and help others...
thanks again.... take care and have a great day!
On Oct 27 09:33 PM cato wrote:
> This evinces the dangers of conducting brain-dead screens on stocks.
> When you know nothing about the underlying stock, these screens are
> much worse than worthless.
> ENP is an MLP. As such, its numbers must be viewed very differently.
> For example, GAAP EPS is not meaningful at all, because it does not
> account correctly for the massive Oil and Gas hedging upstream MLPs
> like ENP have. For companies like LINE and ENP, hedging income accounts
> for a moeity of their revenue right now.
> The key metric for these companies is not EPS, but Distributable
> Cash Flow (seekingalpha.com/symb... -- which ENP has up
> the wazoo. In fact, it just reported earnings tongith with enough
> DCF to increase the distribution again. Tell me, how many of your
> recommended stocks have increased dividends lately?
> What's more ENP has 140% coverage of that distribution (plenty of
> room to increase some more). That's better coverage than just about
> any company in the MLP space.
> Boy you really blew that one. Hope you didn't do something really
> stupid like short it.
pmi or "power meter indicator" measures strength of a security
you are very much welcomed...
i'm glad that i could convey & share similar feelings of inspiration...
the original title on my website was "searching for the ghost of tom joad amidst the financial crisis" but the editor changed it
i hope more people read it @ SA and find it as uplifting...
On Oct 26 07:47 PM optionsgirl wrote:
> Very inspiring and a good list, too. Just the pick-me-up needed on
> a down day. Thank you.
can you please be more specific on your definition of "info" regarding ENP and maybe i can address your question...
i realize that a mother never likes to hear that her child is ugly, but work with me on this one and maybe i can learn something too...
On Oct 26 06:38 PM User 345572 wrote:
> I don't know where you get you info from but it is seriosly flawed
> especially about ENP.
i can't tell you how to specifically use this list as this investment tool can be as versatile as a swiss army knife in the hands of a professional or experienced trader...
in the wrong hands, the list is also akin to a child playing with a loaded gun...
what is your level of investment experience, e.g. professional, self-employed trader, serious self-directed investor, etc.?
when a stock appears on the BWB or DWF list, it may also signal a shift in institutional sentiment or precursor to some unannounced event. the whole purpose of this list is to give investors & traders clues... not specific buy & sell recommendations... this is why i strongly encourage readers to perform further due diligence...
if a stock is still highly rated, and the fundamental conditions remain bullish or even improve, then a falling share price is favorable from a contrarian view... if the stock was still falling in price when it was brought to your attention, buying it would not be prudent... instead put it on a watchlist and wait for it to find support... that's just my way of doing things
are you up to speed on their most recent quarterly conference calls... can you fairly assess the overall sentiment toward the stock's industry?
myself, i prefer to use both technicals and fundamentals to make my buy & sell decisions... i won't invest in a good stock if the trend is down nor invest in a bad one if the trend is up... that's just a part of my own investment philosophy and risk management strategies... (only a part of it)... also bear in mind that "trading" and "investing" are two different animals... investors will differ on these principles based upon their individual financial circumstances, emotional psyche, etc...
if you are looking for something more specific in terms of investment advice, contact "market-condition at hillbent dot com". i do regularly monitor the companies on this list, but this service is reserved for premium subscribers
good day and thank you for your comments
On Oct 26 09:15 AM HATEFEEBAY wrote:
> What about the babies that you listed a few weeks back that have
> still dropped another 10% like JAG and FCS that dropped well over
> 10%? So if it was a baby weeks ago and then dropped an additional
> 10% or so, I wonder where that list is.... hmmmmmm
i agree with you & actually i would only do this trade with options as i suggested... however, i'm not sure about the trading experience & background of some readers, so i wanted to get the concept across first...
my teaching skills could use a little help...
thanks for your comments... i think they are most useful to readers...
On Oct 16 04:37 PM mbkelly75 wrote:
> I am not sure I would do this particular pair trade, but using puts
> and calls is probably the safest way to do it. Thanks for the ideas.
i have no desire to be baited into a political argument...
anyone with a basic knowledge of how capital markets and economies function will appreciate the fact that a $15trn dollar economy like the U.S. does not find itself in the position it is today because it has endured 10 months of an encumbent administration's policy.... what we have is attributed to multi-generational political administrations and economic policies that span several decades... both parties, i.e. democrats and republicans have contributed to this mess...
as long as both sides waste time, energy, and resources blaming each other, nothing will get resolved... we got ourselves into this shit together and the only way we're going to get ourselves out of this shit is by doing it together... whether we like it or not...
thanks for your comments and feel free to share anything else that adds value or insight to an investment thesis or idea(s)
On Oct 15 10:14 AM HA65MPH wrote:
> Mr.hill ,this is nobammas war, economy , get over it ...the thugs
> in the white house are whining , as you are also ....own it ...man
> up !
for energy or other etfs, you can refer to hillbent's etf market trends monitor (www.hillbent.com/compo.../)
the list is pretty comprehensive and fairly well organized to help you efficiently evaluate various asset classes, industries, and geographical regions...
hope this helps...
On Oct 14 04:58 PM Steve in Greensboro wrote:
> Thanks for the note back. And thanks for the clarification on expectations
> of future CPI increases. I fully agree.
> For what it's worth, we still differ on geopolitical risk. Neither
> Israel nor Iran are G-20 members, but their actions may create another,
> much wider war in the Middle East. Today, Putin warned that he is
> opposed to sanctions against Iran. If Russia won't support sanctions,
> the West won't act (meaning impose strong sanctions) and Israel will
> be forced to act (attack Iran's nuclear sites itself). And if Israel's
> actions precipitate a war, I expect there will be disruptions in
> oil supplies and then the West will be forced to participate.
> The G-20 control a lot of things, but they don't control this.<br/>
> Do you have an oil ETF you like?
> On Oct 14 11:15 AM J Clinton Hill wrote:"...there will be more wars,
> but only when the lords of war figure that we can afford them, barring
> anything crazy from one of the world's deluded and self-aggrandizing
> despots..."
btw, love the Trotsky quote....
there will be more wars, but only when the lords of war figure that we can afford them, barring anything crazy from one of the world's deluded and self-aggrandizing despots... i think containment is preferred to confrontation for now... unlike prez bush, there will be no unilateral thrusts by the USA... unlike prez bush, prez obama does not have the luxury of inheriting a budget surplus from the likes of a prez clinton... our lenders have us on a short leash and are in no mood to tolerate or finance conflicts which they deem unnecessary...
it may appear that i am contradicting myself, but i'll concede that i could've been more specific with my selection of words. i believe it is the "anticipation of future inflation", which i also anticipate, that is driving gold prices to rise at such a furious. right now, there is no serious inflation (even taking into account all the lies & manipulations with the CPI reports).
like Noah building the ark, it may be that the wiser investors are not willing to wait for the storm to arrive without preparations for survival...
thx for your comment....
On Oct 14 10:38 AM Steve in Greensboro wrote:
> Thanks, Mr. Hill, for the helpful note.
> You mention two fundamental factors which ordinarily drive gold up
> in USD (USD inflation and geopolitical instability), and state that
> "neither condition exists." I don't this this can be right.
> On USD inflation, you seem to contradict yourself a couple of paragraphs
> later when you state that "...The main reason for gold’s bull market
> is attributed to the demise of the U.S. dollar..." The fact that
> the CPI isn't going up just means the additional USD is going places
> other than CPI items (e.g. gold, equities, etc.)
> On geopolitical instability, I think you are understating current
> conditions. You say that "...members of the G-20 can hardly afford
> nor are willing to tolerate any further escalation of global conflicts..."
> Paraphrasing Leon Trotsky, the G-20 may not be interested in war,
> but war is interested in the G-20.
it's nice to see that someone gets it... i state in the preface to my report: ...From a contrarian perspective, these lists may also serve as a precursor to changes in institutional sentiment and underlying fundamentals....
i try to refrain from giving specific instructions on how to use this list... btw, it is a very useful tool for options players like yourself and this segment of investors has taken a keen interest in the report...
anyway, best wishes & nice to hear from you...
On Oct 01 12:02 AM optionsgirl wrote:
> Sometimes "E" investments pay off really well. That's why the old
> saw about buying when the blood is in the streets remains true today.
> However, a change in fundamentals can easily occur in 4 weeks. I
> don't think Clinton's list creates any conflict.
hi rob,
you're welcome... thanks for the feedback...
essentially, this trade is spreading the momentum or rate of change between treasuries vs. mortgage backed securities..
if you really want to juice it up, you also can create a synthetic position with options...
On Sep 30 09:59 AM Robert Martorana wrote:
> Clinton,
> I like this trade.
> The Fed has concentrated its quant easing on recent Treasury issues,
> which has inflated the bid/cover ratio in recent auctions. This has
> convinced the media and many investors that there is lots of demand
> for Treasurys at low rates. As quant easing dries up, the underlying
> concerns about inflation will more clearly reflected in the yield
> curve.
> Soon, but not yet. Not yet.
> For now, the quant easing continues, as do the deflationary forces
> of private deleveraging. The lack of private credit is a headwind
> for the economy and will help the inflation outlook, and Treasurys.
> As you noted, however, withdrawing quant easing from the mortgage
> market will remove a large prop of artificial demand, and this is
> bearish for the MBB. Sounds like a good trade to me.
> Looking ahead, the flattening yield curve suggests that deflation
> is persisting, despite media warnings of inflation. The deflation
> is caused by private deleveraging, as banks unwind the biggest credit
> bubble in modern history. For now, this is offsetting the massive
> monetary and fiscal stimulus that will eventually weaken the dollar
> and cause stubbornly high inflation--WITHOUT creating jobs for Americans.
> This is boosting populism an protectionism, which I describe in "The
> Deflation of the American Dream" seekingalpha.com/artic...
> Thanks for the trade idea and analysis!
> Rob