J Clinton Hill

Border Crossings: An Economic Indicator Not Easily Manipulated

yikes! now that's an irony and even scarier prospect...

i've considered moving back to hong kong, but more so for lifestyle preferences and existing professional & social networks

always appreciate your comments...


On Aug 19 11:19 AM John Lounsbury wrote:

> Mexicans returning to Mexico is certainly a coincident indicator,
> but not necessarily the worst. I can suggest an indicator that would
> be even more ominous: U.S. citizens crossing to Mexico.

Border Crossings: An Economic Indicator Not Easily Manipulated

yikes! now that's an irony and even scarier prospect...

i've considered moving back to hong kong, but more so for lifestyle preferences and existing professional & social networks

always appreciate your comments...


On Aug 19 11:19 AM John Lounsbury wrote:

> Mexicans returning to Mexico is certainly a coincident indicator,
> but not necessarily the worst. I can suggest an indicator that would
> be even more ominous: U.S. citizens crossing to Mexico.

10-Year U.S. Treasury Rates: The Economy Must Continue to Endure the Abnormal

Hi Rob,

you might try going directly to the Fed's site... i use to monitor & quantify Fed's purchases of treasuries thru news releases.... set up a custom rss feed to save yourself some time...


On Aug 18 08:29 AM Robert Martorana wrote:

>
> Clinton,
>
> Thanks for the update. Foreign purchases of U.S. Treasurys would
> be an important bullish sign.
>
> I love your observation: "It looks like we have been sentenced to
> a Faustian deal with the devil of inflation for the sake of reviving
> a few banks which supposedly "represent" the U.S. banking system."
> Cheap money and huge deficits are offering debt relief in the form
> of inflation, as you noted. A Faustian bargain indeed!
>
>
> I have been concerned about an issue raised by Zero Hedge: seekingalpha.com/artic...
> The data show that Fed is supporting Treasurys via quant easing,
> and this is distorting the bid/cover ratio. This is giving a false
> sense of security to observers who describe the auctions as a "success".
>
>
> Do you have any data that quantify Fed purchases in recent auctions?
>
> Thanks,
> Rob

10-Year U.S. Treasury Rates: The Economy Must Continue to Endure the Abnormal

ain't no fo:

thought i was going crazy... i've been experiencing the same on my end, i.e. virus & spyware warning messages... you think it is being spread from SA by one of the spammers or another source?.

it's pretty %#@! annoying...


On Aug 18 11:38 AM ain't no fortunate son wrote:

> There has been very little reason to put up with the immature cetin
> annoyances, but in and of itself it wasn't the end of the world,
> and so I have complained to management and then kept on posting.
>
>
> Recently, however, I've been getting virus and spyware warning messages
> and actual screens popping up trying to hijack my PC and force it
> into doing virus scans. They appear randomly when I access different
> articles on this site. They've been happening off and on for a week
> or two, no rhyme or reason to when they occur. They do not occur
> on any other programs of the hundreds I access weekly.
>
> I have no idea whether others are receiving similar stuff but I have
> no interest in subjecting my system and my records to crap like that.
>
>
> Hence, I will not be contributing comments to this site anymore -
> its just not worth it.
>
> I've enjoyed reading and participating in what have usually been
> serious subjects and discussions that have taken place here, and
> I've developed respect for a number of authors and commenters, like
> swashbuckler etal.
>
> I wish you all good fortune on your investing and personal lives...
> and as the sarge used to say in Hill Street Blues, "Be careful out
> there!" because we are far from home and there are many miles to
> go before we sleep.

Agriculture ETF Can Offer Profits Without Betting the Farm

Hi OG,

MOO has been riding the rising tide of the broad equity markets...

technically, it's probing June-2009 resistance & during today's intraday trading actually broke out above it... the trends are up, but buyers look exhausted and weak volume = weak support if the fit hits the shan, i.e. stock market correction...

fundamentally, if commodity ag prices continue to rise & the global economy can sustain a recovery, then demand for fertilizer prices should remain firm...

at the time i wrote this report on DBA, it offered a more favorable risk-to-reward opportunity with stronger buyer demand for its shares vs. MOO...

in terms of asset classes, i'm getting a little bit of indigestion with stocks and would really like to see a healthy pullback confirmed by fresh buying demand at higher lows...

however, at the end of day trends prevail... hope this helps...


On Aug 02 10:31 PM optionsgirl wrote:

> DBA is corn, soybeans, sugar and wheat. ( I'm long wheat now) .<br/>
> But what about MOO, Clinton?
> Its 44 holdings is a smorgasboard of tractor companies, seed and
> fertilizer companies, potash, working farms. Do you think MOO will
> continue to benefit, too? Here's a 2 year chart: finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...;t=2y&amp;l=on&...
>
> I'd love to hear your thoughts on that one, too! Thank you.

Agriculture ETF Can Offer Profits Without Betting the Farm

Hi OG,

MOO has been riding the rising tide of the broad equity markets...

technically, it's probing June-2009 resistance & during today's intraday trading actually broke out above it... the trends are up, but buyers look exhausted and weak volume = weak support if the fit hits the shan, i.e. stock market correction...

fundamentally, if commodity ag prices continue to rise & the global economy can sustain a recovery, then demand for fertilizer prices should remain firm...

at the time i wrote this report on DBA, it offered a more favorable risk-to-reward opportunity with stronger buyer demand for its shares vs. MOO...

in terms of asset classes, i'm getting a little bit of indigestion with stocks and would really like to see a healthy pullback confirmed by fresh buying demand at higher lows...

however, at the end of day trends prevail... hope this helps...


On Aug 02 10:31 PM optionsgirl wrote:

> DBA is corn, soybeans, sugar and wheat. ( I'm long wheat now) .<br/>
> But what about MOO, Clinton?
> Its 44 holdings is a smorgasboard of tractor companies, seed and
> fertilizer companies, potash, working farms. Do you think MOO will
> continue to benefit, too? Here's a 2 year chart: finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...;t=2y&amp;l=on&...
>
> I'd love to hear your thoughts on that one, too! Thank you.

Will the Real Bulls Please Charge Forward?

Hi Rob, Nice to hear from you...

I place a great deal of emphasis on the intermediate and longer term trends despite fundamentals and i'm not unwilling to allocate capital accordingly in such circumstances... however, whenever i see weak volume, as a general risk mgt rule, i prefer to allocate a smaller percentage of capital and use stops and/or covered calls or collars to protect profits...

one can play these markets, but needs to really mind the p&l... this is not a buy a hold bull market yet... it's still too early in the economic cycle... this typically happens in an all-out expansion phase...

hope this helps...


On Aug 04 10:57 AM Robert Martorana wrote:

> Perhaps this is what happens to market breadth when liquidity overrides
> fundamentals: Volume fades in pure momentum rallies since people
> are buying without conviction. (I'm no technician, so I defer to
> you.)
>
> In any case, this chart encourages me to remain skeptical despite
> a huge rally. It's never easy when the market goes against you, even
> in the short fun. So it helps to have perspective from charts like
> this.
>
> Thanks Clint. Be well!

ETF Trends: U.S. Dollar Attracts Flight to Safety Capital

i do not necessarily see things as being bleak, but regard the market as a little frothy... i also detect a shift in sentiment reaction towards bearish events...

at the end of the day, i stick with the trends but also regularly quantify the strength of their momentum... when i see changes developing, i think it is wise to be cautious...

only sharing my observations with the best of intentions... i will not dispute that bulls are in control of the market.... however, a pullback would be healthy for a higher long-term support level...

thanks for the comments & reuters links....


On Jul 30 10:37 AM Puerto wrote:

> It would be interesting to hear how your views correlate with the
> latests results of State Street's Investor Confidence Index uk.reuters.com/article...;feedName=stocksAndSha...
>
> which reports increasing confidence of US institutional investors
> as well as Asian and European investors.
>
> There is also the generally very positive report on uk.reuters.com/article...
> of the results of surveys of 49 major investment houses in the United
> States, Japan, continental Europe and Britain.
>
> Are things really so bleak as you report?

Seven Future Catalysts for Apple

very useful info... thx... all the best on your book too...

Inflation Likely to Win Tug of War with Deflation

OG:

Thanks for the input on DBA and I also appreciate your support.

If we get a brief rally in the dollar, there might even be an opportunity to buy DBA at a lower price. Who knows, eh? Today, it held on to its support @ 27.21 and there doesn't appear to be a lot of sellers willing to part with their shares at this level. DBA also closed above its weekly volume weighted average price, so it's hanging tough. I think the market is in the midst of one of its inflection points, but also displaying a lot of indecisiveness at the moment.

All the best,

Clinton...

...


On Jun 07 11:41 PM optionsgirl wrote:

> Based on fundamentals, owning some DBA is a good idea just because
> the forecasts for grains looks like it may be smaller this year,
> based on weather, late planting, and farmers problems accessing credit
> to buy seed and fertilizer ( irrespective of where the dollar goes
> and economic analysis.) Meterologists are monitoring for el nino,
> too. Australia has had a drought. The set up for higher corn, wheat,
> and soy prices into December looks likely.
> Couple the chances for declines in grain yields together with the
> economic issues, and commodities related equities make sense.
>
> On another note, you kept your grace and good humor despite BT's
> comments, Mr. Hill. Those comments smack of racism, and I refuse
> to read such comments and ignore the intent.

Offshore Oil Storage Trade Just Got Less Profitable

by the way, Freya, as someone who has spent 7 years in mainland and greater china, i can sincerely appreciate your last comment: "But most of all, the General belief that it can't be happening, Just because there is No Growth in the USA. "

i certainly take this to heart and try to get outside of my bubble as much as possible with frequent communication to asian contacts and business or social travel when warranted...

things are a quite different outside of usa & even though people abroad acknowledge that things are slow, there's a bright hope for the future that i'm not seeing here as much... i think america will end up on its feet again once it gets off its ass, but that light of eternal optimism seems to be dampened here...

the country's in a really deep funk and it might take a little more time to change this attitude...
On Jun 07 05:28 PM J Clinton Hill wrote:

> thanks for reply and input on china demand story...
>
> i'm also waiting for release of IEA &amp; EIA updates...
>
> am i correct to assume that you see the narrowing of spreads on the
> "storage" trade having little or zero impact on the continuation
> of this trading strategy and that in the event extra supplies of
> crude oil are consistently released on the market without any reduction
> in output of oil as a result of increased storage deliveries, the
> existing and future demand is sufficient to absorb this supply without
> any adverse impact on the prices of crude oil?
>
> thx again...
>

Offshore Oil Storage Trade Just Got Less Profitable

thanks for reply and input on china demand story...

i'm also waiting for release of IEA & EIA updates...

am i correct to assume that you see the narrowing of spreads on the "storage" trade having little or zero impact on the continuation of this trading strategy and that in the event extra supplies of crude oil are consistently released on the market without any reduction in output of oil as a result of increased storage deliveries, the existing and future demand is sufficient to absorb this supply without any adverse impact on the prices of crude oil?

thx again...



On Jun 07 04:15 PM Freya wrote:

> You misunderstand the Traders=Banks?
>
> Traders are just that, they trade continuously. The storage of Oil
> for an indefinite period of time doesn't equate to "trading" for
> me.
>
> Barron's has another Article regarding China's surge in Auto sales
> to Number one in the World with approximately 1 million cars sold
> per month, 70% of them to New first time buyers. Whatever was on
> the road is being supplemented by an additional 7 million or so cars
> annually. 80% of all buyers are paying Cash. This is additional to
> adding to their SPR and ongoing stimulus package usage.
>
> I'm rather eager to see what the New demand figures from the IEA
> and EIA will be for worldwide demand. I know that the previous estimates
> for for a Worlwide decrease in GDP this year by I believe 1.3% will
> disappear rather handily now that Chindian growth will be above 6%
> and Australia has skirted the Pure definition of a Recession.
>
> Since demand is usually equated to GDP growth, I expect to see Oil
> demand figures to be revised Upward.
>
> Our own Contratrend increased usage of Gasoline should be an indicator
> in itself.
>
> Oil began its rise before the Dollar began to falter, it only accelerated
> after.
>
> You see, I'm projecting forwards using the current data I see parading
> before my eyes. My immediate target for Oil is the Mid-$70's, like
> in weeks.
>
> Green shoots, here and there, Like Honda restarting a UK facility.
> But most of all, the General belief that it can't be happening, Just
> because there is No Growth in the USA.

Green Shoots Rule Over Safe Havens in Small Signs of Progress

Whidbey,

The original title of the article on my website reads: "Green Shoots Rule Over Safe Havens as Consumer Credit Contracts". The editor has modified the title and unfortunately it does not accurately reflect my intentions.

In the bond market, we have only seen rising rates at the long end of the curve. This time we saw a bump up at the short end because some traders speculate that the Fed may raise rates.

This observation should be monitored to see if it develops into a sustainable pattern. I am skeptical of the employment #s & state this in my report. I would prefer to see the revision and even take this with a grain of salt. I've also noted that the employment report does not take into account high school & college graduates joining the labor force. Even if the BLS manipulates the "birth/death matrix", census stats numbers show the U.S. population is steadily growing and it doesn't take too much effort to connect the dots and realize the BLS is telling a whopper.

If a shift in sentiment is underway towards the short end of the curve, then the implications deserve respect. Rising short-term rates typically forecast economic recovery. I happen to believe that we still have a long way to go before seeing any daylight in these woods and that consumer weakness does not support the late 2009 or early 2010 recovery that many anticipate.

The purpose of this report is not to offer advice but share notes on economic events and what I perceive to be the market's reaction towards them.

I am not sure if this answers your question. Hope it clarifies things...


On Jun 07 02:10 PM whidbey wrote:

> Wild!! Your advice seems bold and short range, or is this a long
> range guess? In any case why believe the employment report?? The
> BLS manipulation of the Birth/Death matrix was shameless and so are
> you for blindly accepting the hoax. Go easy on your advice someone
> might think you know something.
>
> "The bond market’s reaction to the employment report tells me that
> green shoots supersede the safety of parking money in short term
> instruments and earning relatively nothing on cash."
>
> How soon we forget, quickly we come to believe.

Inflation Likely to Win Tug of War with Deflation

As a "dine-and dash and non-tipping customer", i believe you may have forfeited your rights to gripe about the food or service.

If you do not like neither, I would suggest trying a greasy spoon or a white castle. something along these lines might better cater to your tastes and cultural background...

All kidding aside, what is the point that you are trying to make for the benefit and enlightenment of myself and other readers at Seeking Alpha?


On Jun 05 05:13 PM The BT wrote:

> I'm glad a waiter at a Carribean resort can give us the economic
> rundown.

20 'Bathwater Babies' and 20 'Dogs with Fleas' for the Week

Hello Harlow,

Thanks for bring this one to my attention and other readers. Sounds like a good story. In case you're curious, I ran this stock thru Hillbent's quantitative filters and it came out with a "B" rating which is worthy of a buy rating.

Unfortunately, this weekly report that I do is limited to 20 names pre section, i.e. babies with bathwater & dogs with fleas and also has some screening requirements based upon market cap and liquidity, amonst other considerations.

Thanks again...
On Jun 07 10:23 AM HALROW wrote:

> ALL I CAN SAY IS THAT ON YOUR RELATED STOCK LIST ABOVE YOU LEF OUT
> THE BEST GROWTH STOCK WITH A LOW FLOAT
> SO YOU SHOULD AT LEAST ADD ULTR TO THE LIST..ULTR
> STOCK PRICE IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY BUT SURLEY
> CREEP UP THE CHARTS ALONG WITH THE BDI INDEX AND CHINA.S IMPORT ANS
> STOCKPILE PROGRAM NOW UNDERWAY.
> INDIA AND EUROPE ARE ALSO INCRERASING COMMODITY IMPORTS AND THE SEA
> VESSEL TRANSPORT COMPANIES AND RIVER BARGE SHIPPERS OF COMMODITIES
> WILL DO
> MAKE UP PROFITS INTO 2010 THAT WILL BRING HUGE BUYING VOLUMES INTO
> THE OP LIST OF WATER TRANSPORT
> SHIPPERS...WATCH ULTR ..