J Clinton Hill

ETF Market Trends: Just Another 'Debase' Party on Wall Street

To all:

Happy Thanksgiving and Thank you for your kind words...

Cheers

Clinton...

ETF Market Trends: Excess Liquidity Still Drives Equities, Commodities Higher

Untrusting...

great insight.... thanks....


On Nov 24 08:52 PM untrusting investor wrote:

> Clinton,
> You missed a possibly major bearish factor. Effective Dec.01/09 the
> margin requirements for 2x and 3x ETF, as per new regulation, will
> now double and triple.
>
> This effective reduction in margin credit may well have a pretty
> significant effect on the 2x and 3x ETF's and cause some significant
> selling in these ETF's. In our view, this will pretty much kill off
> or at worst make virtually all 2x-3x ETF's a totally unattractive
> trading vehicle.
>
> If that is not pretty bearish, not sure what would be.

ETF Market Trends: Resurgent Dollar Prevails Once Again Over Riskier Assets

<img class="authors_reply" src="static.seekingalpha.co...">

Mr. Yellowhoard,

Thanks so much for bringing this to my attention. I was a little perplexed initially until I checked the software program and data.

This is a database error. We recently added CRBQ to our trend monitor and transferred it from commodities to key industries. The problem originates in CRBQ (a relatively new ETF) not having enough historical data yet to determine intermediate or long-term trends. By default, the software reads it as negative unless the code is manually tweaked to fix this.

Going forward, this should be resolved. We experienced the same issue with VNM when we initiated coverage on it. This one slipped thru the cracks.

Therefore, the short-term trend for CRBQ is up while intermediate and long-term trends are N/A/. So just ignore these as bad data results.

Guys like you make the world go 'round! Again, thanks so much for pointing this out to me.

Have a great Thanksgiving week and may the gods favor both you and your country club real estate development project.

Cheers...

Clinton


On Nov 22 06:10 PM yellowhoard wrote:

> Mr. Hill,
>
> I noticed that CRBQ is looking down intermediate and long term.<br/>
>
> Given that it is composed of resource producers, which are all green
> on your table, I'm hoping that you can explain the divergence?<br/>...
> in advance!

ETF Market Trends: Equities, U.S. Dollar Still Enjoying Their Seesaw

thx... good catch...


On Nov 17 08:38 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> Typo: "2. 28% price up &amp; price down"
> should read:
> "2. 28% price up &amp; volume down"

ETF Market Trends: GDP Upside Surprise Ironically Gives Worry to Sustainable Recovery

thank you...

yes, this data is available on a historical basis in database formatted reports, but is reserved for premium research reports, special studies, and consultative retainers...

hillbent uses proprietary indicators & models for tracking the flow of capital markets trends and correlation analysis between key asset classes, industries, and sectors which are mimicked or represented by various liquid indices, exchange traded funds, and individual stocks trading on U.S. exchanges...

glad you enjoyed the report and found it useful...

have a great week...


On Nov 01 11:51 AM Aquater wrote:

> Excellent analysis and a wealth of data to digest for investment
> purposes. Data is systematically organized and presented in comparable
> way. Synoptic coverage is highly remarkable, to say the least.
> Nary an aspect of investment world is left untreated.
> The next question: Can this data be available on historical basis
> so one can see how an investment instrument has moved, and from which
> position, to where it is currently?
> Any way, the author needs to be commended and congratulated on achieving
> a thorough, comprehensive and highly useful analytical presentation
> of current investment data.

ETF Market Trends: Resurgent U.S. Dollar Exacts Vengeance on Riskier Assets

neocon47:

the primary purpose of this report is to focus on etf market trends for highly liquid securities that mimic or represent capital market indices, assets, industries, geographical regions, and/or investment themes.

i'm afraid you lose this bet because i did read the gdp report and analyze its driving catalysts. listen, there are plenty of bloggers at SA who focus on economic data events, so you can probably find excellent coverage on this segment of the vast universe of investment finance.

for international bonds, this report currently includes WIP (international inflation protection) and EMB (emerging markets bonds).

starting next week, this report will include the addition of BWX (international treasury bonds).

if you have other suggestions for bond ETFs that are highly liquid and widely followed, please let me know and i will definitely give it consideration.

note that this report will never cover every niche of the ETF universe, but hopefully enough to allow readers to efficiently assess the overall market condition and direction.

thanks for your suggestion... hopefully, it will benefit plenty of others besides yourself.

have a great weekend!


On Oct 31 07:35 PM NEOCON47 wrote:

> Did you look up what caused the GDP to rise?
>
> The numbers are not healthy nor the Brige Book Report of Oct. 21
>
>
> I betcha you didn't.
>
> Also, with all of these charts, why don't you chart International
> Bonds, ETFS?

ETF Market Trends: Bears Emerge from Hibernation in Oversold Market

<img class="authors_reply" src="static.seekingalpha.co...">

carl,

no where in this post do i quantify the market being down "5 out of 6" days and/or associate or imply the market being oversold for this reason.

it is true, after today's close, the market is down 5 out of 6 days.

i state that the market is "approaching the boundaries of extremely oversold territory" which implies that this is not yet its current condition. however, it is moving towards "extremely oversold" based upon percentage qualifiers and historically tested models.

nothing is infallible, but if it makes you feel good to give yourself a pat on the back by saying "gotcha" to an analyst/writer, then god bless you...

my determination for the market being overbought or oversold is derived from proprietary technical indicators. during the extended rally, i have labeled the market overbought on several occasions.

when the facts change, i change my opinion. my investment bias is dictated by the trend tables that i have organized and if the trend is down for a short, intermediate, or long term basis then my bias corresponds appropriately with the market trends. you only need refer to the trend tables to learn my investment bias.

if you have followed any of my writings on technical analysis over the years, i continually caution readers that markets can stay overbought or oversold for extended periods of time.

statistically, a disproprotionate percentage of stocks are displaying oversold signals vs. overbought based upon proprietary oscillators and price-volume indicators.

1020 to 1040 is key support zone. if we break 1020, the odds favor us testing 990 levels. until the market arrives at this testing area, it is premature to call things one way or another. the only thing i know is that the short-term trend is down. after i conduct my analysis this evening, my conclusions may be better or worse... let's wait and see...

what i am trying to do is alert people to a potential anomaly and the vulnerability of getting bitch slapped by following the herds of sheeple. i find it quite unusual and disturbing for the market to advance for such a long period of time and flash oversold signals so early after only 5 trailing days of relatively small negative performance.

in terms of overbought or oversold, indicators can be applied to different time frames. Short-term the market is oversold. Intermediate term, the market still remains overbought.

also, if you read my reports regularly, then you should know that i am fundamentally bearish on the market while acknowledging that the technicals have been bullish...

in terms of logic, i am not always linear in my thinking or interpretation of the environments in which i interact...

hopefully this clarifies my investment bias for you and other readers...

thanks...

ETF Market Trends: Bears Emerge from Hibernation in Oversold Market

pmi or "power meter indicator" measures strength of a security

ETF Trends: Unemployment Report, China Momentum Sustain Bullish Hopes

yes... i would tend to agree... that is why if one looks at the trends for alternative assets, e.g. precious metals or commodity correlated currencies, or international equities (with more sober central bank monetary policies), there are other investment choices for investors who are averse to holding dollar denominated assets...

thanks for sharing your observations....


On Sep 08 12:24 PM NUCLEAR1929 wrote:

> all looks nice, but not the money its priced in
> stocks are up but money is down

ETF Trends: Weak Rebound in Equities

hi michael,

the trends i use are based upon hillbent's proprietary algorithms

in answering your question, i am making an assumption that your background to technical analysis is beginner level.

regarding time-frames, i am basing this upon standards for 3 basic types of traders: short term = day or swing traders, intermediate = position traders, and primary = asset allocators.

in general, trends can be defined by timeframes and short-term usually = daily, intermediate = weekly, and primary = monthly or quarterly...

however, these rules are not absolute as trend analysis, while it can be mechanical, is still somewhat subjective based upon the analyst's preference for proprietary algorithmic settings....

ETF Trends: Weak Rebound in Equities

enigmaman,

consider the UDN (u.s. dollar bearish etf fund) if you don't want to select an alternative currency that is non-correlated to the dollar


On Aug 20 10:56 AM enigmaman wrote:

> Is there an ETF that can be used to trade against the dollars move,
> not sure if Im phrasing this properly but it seems that this rally
> has been doing just that.

ETF Trends: U.S. Dollar Attracts Flight to Safety Capital

i do not necessarily see things as being bleak, but regard the market as a little frothy... i also detect a shift in sentiment reaction towards bearish events...

at the end of the day, i stick with the trends but also regularly quantify the strength of their momentum... when i see changes developing, i think it is wise to be cautious...

only sharing my observations with the best of intentions... i will not dispute that bulls are in control of the market.... however, a pullback would be healthy for a higher long-term support level...

thanks for the comments & reuters links....


On Jul 30 10:37 AM Puerto wrote:

> It would be interesting to hear how your views correlate with the
> latests results of State Street's Investor Confidence Index uk.reuters.com/article...;feedName=stocksAndSha...
>
> which reports increasing confidence of US institutional investors
> as well as Asian and European investors.
>
> There is also the generally very positive report on uk.reuters.com/article...
> of the results of surveys of 49 major investment houses in the United
> States, Japan, continental Europe and Britain.
>
> Are things really so bleak as you report?