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J.D. Welch

 
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  • So What Are My Vodafone Shares Worth? [View article]
    Sold the shares of VZ that I got from the transaction Thursday for a small profit. Was gonna pump the funds back into VOD, but it's up around its 52 week high, so I think I'll hold off on that for a while, see if it comes down some. In the meantime, I was going to bring my position in T up to "parity" in term of % Allocation in my portfolio, as well as some other dividend stalwarts like MO and/or PM and OHI, but with the cash from the VOD deal that will be coming in March 4th plus a slew of other dividends that are all coming in by that day, plus the proceeds from the sale of my VZ shares, I've got enough to start a small-ish new position in something else entirely. Need to think on that over the weekend...
    Mar 1, 2014. 02:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • So What Are My Vodafone Shares Worth? [View article]
    For what it's worth, my brokerage (Interactive Brokers) shows a pay date of 3/4 for the VOD special dividend (cash), also at $4.93 per ADR...
    Feb 25, 2014. 05:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Parity Conundrum [View article]
    That's good to know. I thought it was $10K.

    Like I said, I'm really happy with IB...
    Feb 25, 2014. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Parity Conundrum [View article]
    Yes, Interactive Brokers is great in that regard, and really works out for me and how I want/like to manage my IRA.

    I'm pretty sure there are minimums you need to meet to open an account, though. It's lower for an IRA than for a taxable account, but I suggest you call them and find out. Their customer service is open only on weekdays, early in the day to provide for the East Coast, but I think they close by 6:00 PM Central time. That's one of the only drawbacks to IB, but after getting everything set up with them I've rarely had to call them for anything.

    Best of luck!
    Feb 23, 2014. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Parity Conundrum [View article]
    Correct.

    Here's how it works: The monthly service fee is $10.00. The first $10.00 in commissions offsets this amount, so if I incur $4.00 in commissions I would only be charged $6.00 for the remainder of the monthly service fee amount for that month.

    The way I look at it I get $10 in "free" commissions each month. (I know they're not technically "free", but they come out of the monthly service fee, which I would have had to pay anyway, and given the number of trades I did last year my service fees, et al, came in much lower than what I would've spent had I been charged $7 a trade by another online broker.)

    Hope that helps...
    Feb 19, 2014. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Parity Conundrum [View article]
    We're ships passing in the ether, Hilo!

    The link worked. Thanks very much!
    Feb 14, 2014. 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Parity Conundrum [View article]
    Wow, I missed a lot while I was in my meeting and waiting to comment to Hilo's original comment...

    Thanks for coming to my defense, Hilo, but I didn't take COBeeMan's comment as badly as you seemed to have. And that really is what I'm considering, as I stated just above, is to "take some money off the table" by selling ~a fraction~ of what I hold (~10% or less in most cases when I do that, but at the moment I'm looking at ~22% of LMT), and letting the rest continue to run. As I said, anything can happen to any company at any time, and with 83.5% in gains on paper, I'm feeling like I need to book some of that and redeploy it before something unforeseen does happen. Of course, today might not be the day to do that, seeing as LMT is up almost 2% at the moment. :-)

    However, like I said, I really like your idea of keeping an eye on the 30- and 50-day moving averages, so some tool help (resources/references) will be greatly appreciated.

    And when I do make it to the steak house with you, I'm buying.
    :-)
    Feb 14, 2014. 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Parity Conundrum [View article]
    Sage advice, wise Hilo... :-D

    I understand what you're saying, I really do, and for the moment I haven't done anything, so no tragedies of any kind. Having said that, "Nothing ventured, nothing gained."

    I just took a look at the 10 year chart for LMT, and you have to go back to just before the crash in 2008 to get anywhere near its current price. The gains you and I have seen in LMT have only really come in the last year. LMT is up 83.5% over my cost basis. That's fantastic! But it also makes me a bit nervous; unrealized gains are just that, unrealized.

    The problem as I see it is, how long do you let your runners run? Perhaps you've provided the answer in monitoring the 30- or 50-day moving average. That's a metric that I'm familiar with, but don't really know where to find on the interwebs, so if you can point me in the right direction (without needing to subscribe to something), that would be helpful.

    I have been enjoying watching LMT, and GD, make tremendous runs in the last year. I'm not sure what's going on there, what the catalyst is, but one thing that worries me about defense contractors is that their fortunes can often turn on the whim of politics, as their latest fighter jet program or submarine gets cut, and then, out of the blue, the price can tank. At 83.5% gain, it's very tempting to take some of that money off the table and redeploy it where I know I can get a reliably better yield (although even with that gain, LMT's current yield of 3.28% isn't shabby, but it's not in the 4-6% range, and it's certainly not in the 8-10% range that I've been researching with BDCs).

    So if someone can point me to where I can check the 30-day moving average for any stock I desire, I would greatly appreciate it.

    Thanks very much, Hilo, for taking the time to write up such a well thought-out comment. I am definitely in a contemplative state for the time being, with my finger on the trigger guard, but not on the trigger just yet... (Except for maybe KO... :-D ).

    Thanks again, and take care,
    J.D.

    (Friskies, eh? That's pretty top-shelf; I was thinking more in terms of Kroger's brand, but... Nah, I still don't want to end up there.) :-D
    Feb 14, 2014. 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Parity Conundrum [View article]
    Thanks, rok.

    Tell you what: I'll trade you some of my discipline for some of that spare cash you've got to invest! Ha! If only I had those kinds of "available funds" to work with on a regular basis! (Well, some day soon, I reckon...)

    :-D
    Feb 13, 2014. 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Parity Conundrum [View article]
    Thanks, Small! Always nice to hear from you. I'm glad you liked the colorful tables. Sometimes just numbers don't get the message across, but I was a bit concerned that they might look too "busy". The color gradients really help me focus in on things that are at the opposite sides of the spectrum, and the "threshold" colors tell me when a certain criteria has (or hasn't) been met, such as the % Allocation of a position reaching/exceeding the parity level. (However, I discovered today that 2 of the cells for % Allocation didn't turn green like they were supposed to (my bad); anyone care to point out which stocks those are?). :-)

    I'm a little bit confused by something you wrote, however. What do you mean by "RTN/NOC"? It's just not computing in my pain-addled brain...
    Feb 13, 2014. 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Parity Conundrum [View article]
    Thanks, Josh.

    Wow, that sucks. I just wrote a long, rambling reply explaining how my thoughts have evolved on this subject as a result of all this great discussion, and then SA pooped out on me and froze, and the comment didn't take. *Sigh*. Oh, well, maybe tomorrow when I'm back at my laptop and can type with all 10 fingers instead of just one on this fussy iDevice...

    :-S
    Feb 13, 2014. 10:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Parity Conundrum [View article]
    Great discussion, guys, thank you...
    Feb 13, 2014. 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Parity Conundrum [View article]
    Hi, Robert.

    Thank you for piping up in a previous article of mine and defending the "income line". When the goal is income from dividends, it sheds a different light on how you view which stocks to hold, which to buy more of (or start holding), and what to do with the rest. I was really quite surprised by how little WAG generates in actual dollars for me on an annual basis. That simple sort by Project Annual Income was quite a revaluation.

    And, sorry for spelling your middle name wrong again! D'oh!

    :-D
    Feb 13, 2014. 07:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Parity Conundrum [View article]
    Excellent comment, obgyn, thanks very much. Yes, I was getting a little impatient. :-) I expected to get jumped on for my "heresy" form the outset...

    I wish I could reply more at this time, but I've got a splitting migraine and need to take some meds and ice my head. Thanks again for jumping into the fray; what you say makes a lot of sense. AFL, JNJ and HAS are safe for the time being. I'm watching WAG like a hawk; it's yield is now below 2%, and it's been on a rocket ride; there might be more profits to harvest there soon, need to see what the next week brings. I don't think I'm going to do anything tomorrow, but you never know with me. :-D

    Things are not looking great for KO at the moment, however. Crunching the numbers, I can re-deploy that cash into a couple of BDCs that both yield over 10%, and are in good shape. Then if KO pulls back (or stays "dead money" for a few years), I can get back in at a better cost basis than I have now, and let Father Time do his thing...

    Thanks again...
    Feb 13, 2014. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Parity Conundrum [View article]
    Hi, rok.

    I think you're agreeing with me, but let me clarify: In the first 5 year phase, I'm going to pick up some more higher-yielding stocks such as a few BDCs, and use the higher revenue that they will generate over the next 5 years to slowly build up and add to other positions that are lower yielders, but "safer", such as the CCCs. So in the end, at the end of the 15 year window I've set for myself, I will end up with positions that are out of whack in terms of % Allocation Parity, but are more balanced in terms of Dividend Income Parity, thereby leveling out the income flow.

    This is a general statement; obviously there will be some tuning and adjusting, and not everything will be in perfect balance in terms of the parity, depending on the level of risk, etc, etc. But that's the idea; load up now on higher paying per unit (higher yielding) units to "accelerate" the income that will be coming in, and use that accelerated income to buy things that I haven't been able to break into, like PG, CL, CVX, for example (just an example).

    Hope that helps... Gotta run...

    As always, thanks for your comment...
    Feb 13, 2014. 05:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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