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J.D. Welch

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  • The Method To My Stock-Picking Madness, Part 2 [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, samdoji, and thanks for making my first article the first article on which you make a comment on Seeking Alpha! I'm honored. :-)

    Also, thanks for sharing your metrics & method. It looks like we use a number of the same metrics. I wrote this series because I wanted to give folks a general idea of My Mad Method, and tried to emphasize that whichever metrics you use is customizable to anyone's particular preferences. It was a purely organic process that lead me to these particular 15 metrics that I detail in the article. I also employ another metric informally that uses a stock's current price and 52 week High & Low, which sounds similar to what you mentioned. Maybe that and a few others warrant another, follow-up article...

    Thanks again for your feedback!
    Apr 25 01:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Method To My Stock-Picking Madness, Part 2 [View article]
    Thanks, Robert! It's nice to be here! :-) More to come (although, I daresay I don't have the free time to be as prolific a writer as Rocco is! But I do have a few more ideas percolating around in my little grey cells, so keep an eye out...).
    Apr 25 12:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Method To My Stock-Picking Madness, Part 2 [View article]
    Thanks, Catdriver. I absolutely agree with you, and ARLP is my #1 choice for my next purchase (despite it being #2 on the list in the article; like I said, I just took up a position in Medtronic, but I left them on my watchlist for illustrative purposes). I'm in the middle of switching brokers right now, so I kinda have to wait for my securities and cash to transfer over from my old broker to my new broker before I can do anything. I understand that ARLP is primarily a domestic producer, but supply-and-demand is global, so if someone else in the USA (and we have the most coal reserves in the world, by far) decides to sell to China, then whomever was buying from that supplier will have to find another supplier, and ARLP will be there to fill that demand. From what I've read, ARLP looks like a well-run organization with mgmt that knows what it's doing. Two of my pillars of investing are that 1) I seek the best stable and growing dividends, and 2) I'm generally a buy-and-hold kinda guy, so I'm not looking to make a quick buck. ARLP is trading about twice as close to its 52 week low than its 52 week high (another funky metric I use, which I didn't include in this article), which is a strong Buy signal for me. I just wish I'd had the free cash when it went into free-fall a few weeks ago and got down below $53, but, alas, no dry powder in the keg...

    There's another Seeking Alpha contributor whose name is Mark Anthony, and he's written a couple of really well researched articles about coal that are backed up by strong data. If you haven't read his articles, and you're bullish on coal (which it sounds like you are), I suggest you look him up and read his stuff. Very hot-and-heavy debating going on in the Comments sections, but Mark keeps coming back with facts, figures and links to support his stance and update his readers.

    Thanks for the feedback, and thanks for taking the time to read my articles!
    Apr 25 12:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Method To My Stock-Picking Madness, Part 1 [View article]
    Thanks (I think). Thanks for taking the time to read it...
    Apr 24 11:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    Clarifying comment: If AAPL dropped from here to $450 *in the next month or so*, I'd buy more, then continue to hold.

    If it goes up to $750 from here, I'm probably gonna sell some, maybe most, but not all (I don't hold nearly as many shares as some folks have said they do, anyway), then wait through the rest of 2012 and 3013 and see what happens...

    Apr 24 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updated Enhanced Income Strategy For Intel [View article]
    Yes, very nicely written article; clear and articulate. I'm not sure I'd sell puts so far out and tie up that much cash to cover the contracts, but I'm still learning, too, and need to do some "paper trading" before I actually commit to some real contracts. This article was very useful, and I've added it to my collection of "Fundamentals>Options" bookmarks. Thanks again... :-)
    Apr 24 10:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Intel Shares Might Be Headed Below $25 Again [View article]
    A well-written article, but I have to contend with your points:

    1) Inventories aren't the problem. The OEMs and other customers are waiting for Ivy Bridge processors to come out, which they did yesterday, to rave reviews. Also, Q1'11 was 14 weeks vs Q1'12 which was 13 weeks. That accounts for a bit over 6% of the difference between the 2 quarters, which I calculate to be roughly 13%. So that's half the difference. Between the Thai flooding affecting HDD supplies and customers anxiously awaiting Ivy Bridge to put into their shiny new Ultrabooks, I'm not too concerned about Q1 results. Q2 guidance was also better than historically typical, as Q2 is usally Intel's worst quarter.

    2) "Much of this gain was probably attributable to the general rise in the market in 2012." Which is which? Since INTC is a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is the Dow dragging INTC up along with it, or is it the other way around? Also, Intel came off of a second record-breaking year at the end of 2011, with $54Billion in revenues, up 24% from 2010's $42Billion (42? 43?), first-time-ever over $40Billion in revenues. Maybe the market is just giving the share price its due, after 8 consequitive record-breaking quarters, and that's the real reason Intel has seen such a nice rise since the start of 2012. (And really, you listen to what they say on CNBC?) :-)

    3) Not Europe again! OK, the Europe problem has been around for a while now, over a year at least, and that's baked into the share price. Everyone who does business in Europe is hurting. However, Intel's largest customer is not Europe, and it's not the USA, it's China, followed by the USA, followed by Brazil, followed by Indonesia, followed by... If Europe goes to hell in a handbasket, then that's going to affect everyone, not just Intel, so it's kinda like saying "It will rain in 2012". Secondly, why are you comparing Intel to Kellogs? Chips vs Flakes? Not a very solid comparison, IMHO.

    "With the run that Intel shares and the stock market have enjoyed, now might be a good time to take some chips off the table." -- Never a bad idea to take profits if your cost basis is low enough and/or any one position is getting a little out of whack in terms of its % of your overall portfolio. And I agree that $25 would be a great entry point for anyone who's been sitting on the sidelines. But I agree with Windsun33 that the under $25 scenario is a lot less likely than the over $30 scenario, unless there's a general meltdown of the whole market.

    I think with more Ultrabooks coming out with Ivy Bridge processors in them, Windows 8 in the fall, the crushingly efficient performance of Romley Xeon server chips, and the introduction of Intel Inside smartphones in India, China and Europe, $30 by EOY is a real possibility.

    Just sayin'... :-)
    Apr 24 09:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Method To My Stock-Picking Madness, Part 2 [View article]
    Thanks for your comment, Maria! Glad you enjoyed it... :-)
    Apr 24 09:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Method To My Stock-Picking Madness, Part 2 [View article]
    Fantastic! Thanks for the comment.

    Are you clear on the Graham Number, or are you still looking for a reply? I'll give you one anyway...:

    Because it's one of 15 different metrics that are all being ranked and averaged together, it doesn't swing the results too far either way; none of the metrics' ranks do that on their own. I like having the Graham Number because, like the BMW Method RMS and, to a lesser extent, RF, I can use it as a "tie-breaker" if I'm in a toss up between two or three different stocks and only have limited funds to make a purchase (which is always the case!). So by being able to scroll across the spreadsheet and eyeball the Graham Numbers (or whatever) of the few stocks that are vying for my greenbacks, that can help me decide, since if one is way under and the other(s) are way over or near parity, that gives me a pretty good indication that the stock is probably undervalued currently. A quick glance at the BMW RMS, too, will usually seal the deal...

    Hope that helps, and thanks again for commenting!
    Apr 24 09:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Method To My Stock-Picking Madness, Part 1 [View article]
    Thanks very much. The link to Part 2 is right at the end of the article, and they went ahead and published both Parts 1 and 2 today, which kinda surprised me. Hope it helps!
    Apr 24 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Method To My Stock-Picking Madness, Part 1 [View article]
    Thanks, Dave! Much appreciated...
    Apr 24 07:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Method To My Stock-Picking Madness, Part 1 [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, I really appreciate it. I hope this helps.

    I was having trouble keeping track of all of the various metrics that I was reading about, usually onesy-twosy, so I decided to build a spreadsheet where I could keep track of the ones that I thought made the most sense. I knew about P/E, that lower was generally better, and I knew about dividend yield, but as I started learning about more and more metrics, it was hard to keep track of them all until I took some time to put them all into a spreadsheet. But that wasn't enough, so I that's when I started ranking each metric and then I averaged those ranks and ranked that average, and eventually the picture became pretty clear as to, based on what were my particular criteria, which stocks might be "better" than the others. It takes a little effort, but now that I've got the spreadsheet set up, it's a pretty simple matter to add new stocks to my watchlist and see how they rank up against each other.

    Thanks again for the comments!

    (BTW, I hope you read Part 2, too!...)
    Apr 24 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel (INTC) has acquired assets related to Cray's (CRAY) high-performance computer (HPC) interconnect program, including IP and personnel. Intel will integrate the technology with its Xeon server CPU platforms, such as Romley. The move comes 3 months after Intel bought QLogic's InfiniBand hardware business - those products are often used in HPC applications. CRAY +23.4% AH. (PR)  [View news story]
    They really want to get higher rankings in the supercomputer category, it looks like!
    Apr 24 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    Thanks, Rocco!
    Apr 24 06:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    Apparantly you didn't read the article. Rocco specifically said that the near-term looked fine for Apple. He's bearish in the 2-years-from-now+ timeframe. This past quarters' earnings fall into the "near-term" category, which, it seems, Rocco got right...

    Who looks like a clown, now?

    Apr 24 05:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment