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J.D. Welch

 
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  • My Mad Method: What Next To Buy, And Why? - February, 2014 [View article]
    Thanks, RS.

    Unfortunately, I missed the ~$9.80 low point where you were writing about it, as I didn't have the funds to commit at that time, and in the meantime it crept back up to $11, which is where I bought this last back, and immediately dropped back down again. But that's still well below my previous (and current) cost basis, so, I'm OK with it (otherwise I wouldn't've pulled the trigger at all...).

    I also own Two Harbors (TWO), but for some reason I can't recall didn't put it on my "What Next To Buy?" list of stocks that I own to potentially add more to. Maybe because it's not as down as AGNC and NLY are in terms of my cost basis, or maybe because I didn't want all 3 of my mREITs on that list; can't recall. In any event, I'm satisfied so far...

    Thanks for your insights in your recent NLY articles!
    Feb 10 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 4 [View article]
    Well, my cost basis is $36.4450 so in my case, yes, it would be. Your mileage may vary. I'm Long TGH, and intend to buy more when I have enough dividends accumulate or can make a contribution to my IRA. It's on my "short list" of stocks to add more shares to. However, if you think the market is due for a "correction", as some folks do, then you could wait and see if it goes down. Also wouldn't hurt to check out when they're due to report again (I'm not sure when that will be). All-in-all, hard for me to say, other than I bought it at the above cost, and will buy more, (probably) even if it goes up a little bit. If it goes up more than a little bit ($1 to $2+), then I might hold back and see what happens, but more than likely I'll be adding more as soon as I get enough dividends accumulated...

    I know that's kinda non-committal, but I hope it helps... Basically, you need to buy when you're comfortable buying. I watched it go up and down over the course of a few months, then it appeared to stabilize. It's still above where it was 6 months ago, but not my much...
    Feb 10 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Portfolio: Adding Coca-Cola [View article]
    Rudester:

    Congratulations on AAPL! That must've been a nice boost to your bottom line.

    UVE was my "wishes to fishes", although not as significant as your experience with AAPL. But I stumbled onto that one through a tip from a reader's comment, and took a chance. I've taken other chances and paid the penalty. Now I'm primarily looking for income, although capital appreciation is nice.

    Also, the 12% Chowder Rule does apply to holding decisions. I think what you're thinking of possibly is that Utilities and Telcos have a lower threshold, 8% as opposed to 12%. That's my understanding from when I talked with chowder about it...
    Feb 5 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Keeps Delivering [View article]
    Thanks, COBeeMan.

    I just plugged ARCC, FSC, MCC and TICC (all of which I got from BDC Buzz's website) into my My Mad Method spreadsheet, and oh, man! They all scored very well... Must ponder my next move...

    :-)
    Feb 4 08:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Portfolio: Adding Coca-Cola [View article]
    Yeah, and if wishes were fishes I'd've bought AAPL when it was around $10 a share, and sold when it hit $650 (which is what I did, but I bought it around $325, and not much of it). I don't have 95 years to sit on an egg and wait for it to hatch $10MM. I have ~15 years left before I retire, unless I can retire before then, which is unlikely, and I need to juice my IRA ~now~. I'm down 1.61% on KO as of right now, 561 days after I bought my first shares, although when you factor in the dividends I've collected since then, I'm a smidge above the breakeven point... I love the Coca-Cola Company, I think it's a rock, but it's not looking good compared to some other rocks that have appreciated extremely well for me, like AFL, GD and LMT, and its #30 out of 34 in terms of projected dividends I'm likely to collect this year, and its just a hair below % Allocation parity at that. These are not good signals. Maybe my time for KO isn't now... Must consider my options...
    Thanks, All...
    Feb 4 08:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Portfolio: Adding Coca-Cola [View article]
    Let me correct myself: KO is NOT trading close to its all-time high, and has in fact been beating a path to a new 52-week Low. However, my other thoughts still stand; with a P/E of over 19, a CDR of under 12%, I'm wondering why I have KO in my portfolio. Is it, as someone above mentioned (I think) a kind of "replacement for a bond"?...
    Feb 4 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Keeps Delivering [View article]
    Great, thanks, Miz!
    Feb 4 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Portfolio: Adding Coca-Cola [View article]
    I have to echo Ptstanford's warning.

    Let me start by saying that I own KO, and it is just below "parity" in terms of its % Allocation in my portfolio. But I've been looking at things a little differently (I'm going to write an article about this, so "spoiler!"), and the story on KO isn't adding up. I know that the ~perception~ is that KO is a great investment, but it currently has a Chowder Dividend Rule [CDR] number of just 11.09%, which is below chowder's 12% threshold for a "healthy" DGI stock. Sure, the yield is at 3% (actually just under), but with a 5 Year Dividend CAGR of just 8.1%, it's not a stellar performer. And as Ptstanford just mentioned, it's trading close to its all time high. I don't see a good dividend story here, nor a good growth story.

    Maybe I'm missing something?... I always thought that KO was a "gold standard" kind of DGI stock, but its just not adding up at the moment... Some illumination would be appreciated...

    Thanks.
    Feb 4 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Keeps Delivering [View article]
    Oops, my bad! Thanks, Folks. And here all this time I've been looking at the name "Resource Capital Corporation" and thinking it's a BDC. (I probably knew it was a REIT when I bought it, just forgot...) LOL.
    So, any advice on a few more BDCs one should be looking into, besides PSEC and MAIN?
    :-D
    Feb 4 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Keeps Delivering [View article]
    Very nice article, very helpful. Thanks very much.

    I've been Long PSEC for over a year, and it is indeed a great source of income. The other two BDCs that I currently own are MAIN and RSO (RSO is my #1 source of income in my portfolio, and PSEC is #2...). Any thoughts on those two?

    Thanks...
    Feb 4 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 4 [View article]
    Thanks, Hardog. I've been seriously considering getting into a preferred or two or three for a while now. Appreciate the tip.

    On the BDCS side, I have MAIN and PSEC, which do pay monthly, as well as RSO, which pays quarterly, but is my #1 income producer in the IRA, which I like a lot. So I feel like I've got pretty good participation/exposure in BDCs, but I'll always entertain new ideas...
    Feb 1 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 4 [View article]
    Hi, Jud, and thanks for your comment.

    Personally, I'm up on COP over 15%, and I've only owned it for 506 days, so I guess I picked it up after the split, and have been able to ride it up. It's currently yielding 4.20% (as of yesterday), and I see no reason why they wouldn't declare a dividend for this quarter. I have projected their ex-div date should have been 1/18, so that is a bit concerning, but that could be for a number of factors. I just had another stock, UVE, declare an ex-div date that is going to be about a month earlier than I'd expected it to be. Also, COP is a Dividend Contender, and companies in that class tend to not want to ruin their track record unless the situation is dire (INTC notwithstanding), which I see no indication of.

    So, I don't know why they haven't declared a dividend for Q1 yet, but I'm not going to panic and sell my COP. But that's just me.

    Hope that helps...
    Jan 31 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 4 [View article]
    Thanks, Tovj.

    Question for you: Is "par" always $25.00, or does it vary by preferred stock?

    Also, as I understand it, there's a kind of "time limit" on preferreds whereby they "expire", for lack of a better term, the idea being you collect the great dividends during the life of the preferred, but need to sell before the expiration date (if its price is above par). Am I on the right track here? Like I said, I need to do a bit more research on preferred stocks to fully understand how they function (or at least understand them enough to not get myself into trouble...).

    Thanks for any insights you can provide...
    Jan 31 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 4 [View article]
    Hi, Scott, and thanks for your comment.

    It's interesting that you picked those two, WAG and SDRL. One of the things I rank is each stock's projected dividends for the current year. SDLR comes in at #3, while WAG comes in at #34 out of 34 in terms of how much $$$s I expect to get from them this year. On the other hand, WAG has appreciated almost 56% in my portfolio since I bought it, while SDRL has only gone up 5%.

    The projected annual dividends I expect to collect from each stock is something I track, but I've struggled with how to "balance" the portfolio in terms of which ones pay how much. The 2.94% Allocation parity target (for the current 34 positions) allows me to keep each position relatively balanced versus each other, so that if any one takes a hit on their price, it won't affect the bottom line too much. Since most of my positions (except the mREITs) tend to increase their dividends over time, I'm not as concerned about balancing the amount that they produce; and WAG has certainly done well for me.

    However, you have stimulated me to take another look at my portfolio and see if there are any stocks that are not doing too well in terms of both Gain/Loss Rand and Projected Dividends Rank, and see if there might be somewhere better for the funds tied up in them to be allocated (as in, a replacement position)...

    Thanks again... It's something I certainly think about, but it doesn't keep me up at night...
    Jan 31 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 4 [View article]
    "...it helps me to SWAN because when a few are down -- the dividends keep coming, not all sectors are down at once (so far) and the downers don't make a significant dent in my overall portfolio."

    That's exactly the point! Thanks so much for articulating it so well, and for your kind words and taking the time to read my articles... :-)
    Jan 30 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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