Seeking Alpha

J.D. Welch

 
View as an RSS Feed
View J.D. Welch's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • My Mad Method: Reloading My Watch List [View article]
    Hi, and thanks for your comment.

    I've mentioned it in the comments of previous articles, because this comes up from time to time. I really like FAST Graphs, but due to work and family time constraints, haven't had the chance to take advantage of the free trial, which I definitely want to do before I commit to a monthly (or annual) subscription. I will get around to it eventually, but for the time being it's something I just don't have the time to put into reviewing companies' FAST Graphs in addition to everything else I need to get done. It' taken me a while to get this article published, and I owe you all an update "What Next To Buy, And Why?" for some transactions I've executed recently. So, yes, I'll get to using FAST Graphs at some point, and I think they are a great resource.

    Hope that helps...
    Nov 22 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 2 [View article]
    Hi, StepUp.

    For me, what I do is take the dividends that accumulate as cash during the month and re-invest them in whatever position needs it the most, usually based on which one is the furthest below parity but still "healthy". For example, my mREITs are some of the positions that have slipped furthest below parity, but I'm not inclined to "automatically" buy more of any of them at the moment; there are better places to put the monthly accumulated dividends at the moment.

    I don't DRIP, but I understand why some people do. Nothing wrong with that. I just prefer to have the choice of where to put a month's worth of accumulated dividends.

    I keep track of when each position is due to pay its next dividend, and how much I expect to get (based on dividend payment notifications I get from my broker), and then look at the day of the month when most or all of that month's dividends will have been paid. I then keep an eye on my current positions to see where I should apply those accumulated dividends when that target date rolls around. To keep commissions low, I usually focus on only buying shares for one, maybe two positions in any given month, assuming I haven't done something to increase my available cash, such as taking profits or making a contribution.

    If I was able to take profits and/or make a contribution, then I will likely consider using that cash along with the accumulated dividends for the month to add a new position. Otherwise, a month's worth of dividends by itself is not enough to justify starting a new position, at least not in my case. YMMV...

    Hope that helps...
    Sep 11 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 2 [View article]
    The key here is "KMP in a taxable account". For an IRA, you can buy KMR, but for a taxable account, KMP is definitely a good idea, and I agree, it's on sale right now...
    Sep 9 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 2 [View article]
    For exposure to KMP, I have put KMR in my wife's IRA. It is more appropriate than an MLP, being the "holding company", and has the same yield without the potential complications that may arise when selling KMP (or any MLP) out of the IRA further down the road.
    Sep 9 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 2 [View article]
    Hi, Mary. Welcome to the party.

    One reason could be that, looking at David Fish's CCC list, the Chowder Dividend Rule [CDR] number for HCP is only 7.56%, which is well below chowder's 12% threshold for a combination of current yield plus 5 year dividend growth CAGR. 8% is the cutoff for utilities (including telcos), so HCP wouldn't pass my initial screen for a stock worth considering; not enough growth in the dividend to meet my requirements...
    Sep 5 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: Putting The Chowder Dividend Rule To Work [View article]
    Hi, Eddie & Mary.

    Eddie, that's a really useful site, but I think Mary is looking for the 5 Year Dividend Growth CAGR. Please correct me if I'm wrong, Mary.

    For Dividend Champions, Contenders and Challengers, I use the number found in David Fish's CCC spreadsheet, which he updates monthly and which can be found here:

    http://bit.ly/aA8y3H

    Otherwise, I go to fool.com, enter a ticker, and go to the Ratio's tab, and under the "Dividends" heading is "Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate (%)". That's usually accurate enough for my purposes.

    Hope that helps...
    Sep 5 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 2 [View article]
    Thanks for all your comments, hwood007.

    Having no job certainly would help with having time to do research!

    I added CBRL to my watch list back in February, and before you could say "Skyrocket!", it did! I've still got it on my watchlist, but I'm feeling like I missed the boat on that one. It's up 53% over when I first started looking at it, which may be a fair price, but I'm a little disappointed that I didn't trust my gut and pick it up when I first thought about it... AFL I have in my IRA, and am very happy with it, and CLX I got in my wife's IRA at a great time. Both are great...

    Best of luck to you!
    Sep 3 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 2 [View article]
    @birder:

    My IRA is rather small, I think, in comparison to others, and especially to where I'd like to be at this stage in my life, but it's growing. On the transaction side, I rarely pay more than $1.00 per trade, and even then it's just a few cents more and based on the number of shares I trade, so commissions aren't a factor for me. I use Interactive Brokers, and while I do pay a monthly fee, any commissions for trades are taken out of that fee, which keeps my monthly costs rather low. I'm very happy with this broker...
    Sep 3 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 2 [View article]
    Hi, fred.

    I wouldn't get into any MLPs in your IRA. There's a huge debate about that, but what I decided was that it wasn't worth the possible future risk of a very high tax bill when the time came to finally sell an MLP out of my IRA. I will probably invest in MLPs in a taxable account once I'm able to start one up, but otherwise I dumped my MLPs a while back. I hated doing it, as Iove their distributions, but the potential risk was just too much and I wasn't sleeping well at night.

    Hope that helps, and best of luck... :-)
    Sep 3 05:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 2 [View article]
    @Michigandude:

    If it were me, I'd stay away from BAC. WFC would be a much better choice, if you've got your heart set on getting a Financial stock, but there are a lot of other great companies to jump into first to build a foundation for your portfolio, like KO, JNJ, etc. chowder has a number of InstaBlog articles he's written that describe the fundamentals of DGI, at least his approach to it, which I think is pretty sound. I'd suggest reading him and David Van Knapp, and get some ideas there. chowder also has a 'Project $3 Million' portfolio that he makes public, and there are some great choices to be found there if you're just starting out...

    Otherwise, just keep plugging away. I wish I'd done what you're doing when I was 21! Just be sure to put the most into your IRA that you can every year, and look for solid dividend growers so that you get that "double compounding" effect going...

    Best of luck, and thanks!
    Sep 3 04:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 2 [View article]
    Thanks, DAG, and that's a great comment about limiting yourself to high-quality problems. I'm the first to admit that I'm not always right; I'm just trying to share what I am doing and why, and get feedback. There has been a great response to this articles in terms of all the comments, and I really appreciate it. Thanks, Everyone!
    Sep 3 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 2 [View article]
    Thanks, Rose!

    Best of luck with your portfolio... :-)
    Sep 3 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 2 [View article]
    @barrysk2:

    If I "until something changes that is detrimental to [my] plan", it may be too late to book the profits. Look at what happened to MSFT today on the news that it's going to buy NOK!

    I am sticking with my plan; my plan includes booking profits in those situations where it makes sense, which means that there's been a substantial gain (usually 25% or more), and as a result the position is now significantly over weight. Also, please keep in mind that I sold a very, very small number of shares compared to what I had held, in both MSFT and WAG about 10%, when they had appreciated well over 25% (well, MSFT just 26.6%, but WAG 33.1%). So it's not like I'm dumping a winner to buy a loser; I calculated how much I would lose in terms of the dividends produced by those shares, vs how much I expected to earn on an annual basis from the OHI shares that I was planning on buying, and came out ahead in terms of income buy taking a small amount of profits and re-investing in OHI's much higher yield...
    Sep 3 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 2 [View article]
    Hi, jimlewin.

    I provided a link to the word "Delta Ratio Reading" which will take you to Part 1 of a 2 part article that explains, among other things, the DRR and what "Holy Cow!" means. Basically, it means that its current price is very close to its 52 week low, but there's a bit more to it than that (not much, but a bit)...

    Hope that helps...
    Sep 3 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why - Part 2 [View article]
    Guys:

    I agree with you about FAST Graphs being a good deal, and know about the free trial period (although I thought it was a month, but 2 weeks is good). It's just a matter of having a 2 week period where I'm actually able to spend time learning how to use them (probably simple, I'm sure) and applying that to everything that's on my watchlist, if not my entire portfolio, before making my next move. Unfortunatley, with the way work, family and a special hobby project I've been immersed in since March have been going, I just haven't had the time to set aside those 2 weeks when I know I'll be able to make the most out of the trial period. After that, I feel like I need to be in a position where I'm buying (and possibly selling) a bit more frequently than I currently am, so for now I've been putting off trying out the FAST Graphs, which will probably lead to me subscribing...
    Sep 3 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,990 Comments
1,686 Likes