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J.D. Welch

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  • My Mad Method: What Next To Buy And Why - February, 2013 [View article]
    Thanks for the comments, folks.

    If you've read any of chowder's comments or Instablogs, you'll understand why I have so many positions. And, yes, the goal is to get to about 50 positions, equally allocated, so that no one position represents more than about a 2% impact to the portfolio's value.

    @Vikingsfan: If you get to the point where you only have 5 positions, what happens if one of them takes a big hit? 20% of your portfolio takes that hit. In my case, only 3.57% (presently) would be at risk, and at 50 positions, only 2%.

    The reason for holding the #1 and #2 stocks in a given sector/industry is not a matter of indecision, but of getting the best exposure to that industry via the top 2 performers. I own KO, and I've got PEP on my watchlist and would like to hold it someday. MO and PM are another good example (although right now I have LO in my portfolio, but am keeping an eye on PM). Where there are 2 top players, everyone else in that industry is fighting over table scraps...

    @rnsmth: Not sure if you saw it on the list, but I do own WEC. It's one of David Van Knapp's Top Dividen Picks for 2013, which is one of the reasons why I went with it over SO when I first picked it up (last month?).

    As Viperman states in the comments further down, I don't like just owning a mutual fund because of the fees, the knee-jerking to try to get the "next best thing" after the horse is already out the barn door, and all the other stuff they hold that I'm not interested in. I'm happy being a Do-It-Yourselfer...

    Thanks again!
    Mar 7, 2013. 01:08 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Ex-Dividend Dates Work [View article]
    Thanks for clearing this up for all of us!...
    Aug 1, 2012. 02:55 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel (INTC -1%) spikes lower on a Bloomberg report that Apple (AAPL +1.3%) is thinking of abandoning the use of Intel's CPUs within Macs in favor of internally-developed, ARM-based processors such as the ones that power its iOS hardware. Similar reports have been around for a while[View news story]
    When I want to get ANY work done, I go to my laptop. The only thing I use my iPad for is browsing the web at night (but woe betide me if I want to reply to or make a comment on that damn touch-screen keyboard) and reading books. There are things I use my iPad for outside the home (and work) that it's nice to have, but all the content is created on my laptop, saved as PDFs and mailed to myself, so I can open it on my iPad and save the PDF... There is no content creation taking place on my iPad; it's all content consumption... :-/
    Nov 5, 2012. 08:39 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Thing Warren Buffett Has Said All Year [View article]
    Thanks, Siverback, I appreciate that. Yeah, I wasn't attacking Tim, I was just shocked at the revelation that he didn't have an active portfolio, when he writes such wonderful articles and has such great advice on investing, especially Dividend Growth Investing. I understand and respect his explaination; getting through undergraduate work AND law school and coming out the other side with zero debt = an amazing feat, and a lot of great forethought about how you want to manage your future. I'm sure once Tim lands a real job after law school that his portfolio will be one to envy. I just wish someone had told me the things that Tim knows at his age when I was his age. Took me too long to figure out what to do, and now I'm playing a frantic game of catch-up...
    Jun 8, 2012. 01:15 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Dividend Growth Investing Be Reconciled With Modern Portfolio Theory? [View article]
    Trolledo, what part of "I trade in my IRA, so Uncle Sam does NOT get 15% of my dividends" don't you understand?...

    $5 in dividends DOES NOT equal $5 in unrealized capital gains, because I haven't realize those capital gains, but next month I get another $5 in dividends, regardless of what the price of that stock is at that time...

    Sheesh, you really don't get it. YOU do the math. If you never sell, you're never realizing the capital gains (or losses), but you continue to collect the INCOME from your positions...
    Sep 24, 2012. 09:02 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Dividend Growth Investing Be Reconciled With Modern Portfolio Theory? [View article]
    @RLJ: As DVK alluded to, I, as a DG Investor, don't (can't) rely on the "growth component in my portfolio". I'm striving to build income (from dividends & distributions); the wealth that accumulates as a by-product of currently re-investing that income back into my portfolio while I'm still in the accumulation phase of my investing lifetime is a plus, but it's purpose is to allow me to accumulate more shares of DGI+ stocks, thereby increasing my income stream. Wash, rinse, repeat... I appreciate the growth in value of many of the stocks that I have owned and do own, but its a means to an ends, and that ends is to build a portfolio that will throw off enough income that I can replace my paycheck with it and retire, AND that that income continues to grow at an overall pace that beats inflation until my wife and I have departed our earthly coils; then whatever is left can be divided up amongst my heirs to continue doing the same thing. Wash, rinse, repeat over multiple generations...
    Sep 19, 2012. 11:13 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Dividend Growth Investing Be Reconciled With Modern Portfolio Theory? [View article]
    Great article, Dave! Thanks for getting it published. And congratulations on it being an Editor's Pick, as well; that is well deserved. I'm glad I saw it so soon after it was published and got the chance to post an comment before there were 60 or 100 comments ahead of me that I'd have to read through! LOL!

    Thanks for being the DGIers' Advocate!
    Sep 19, 2012. 09:48 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Should I Transition From Capital Gain Investing To Dividend Growth Investing? [View article]
    "The "cause" of dividend growth investing is helped greatly each time someone says, "I've done that; it works". "

    Oh, it's working alright, at least for me, and at least so far. I'll keep chronicling my adventures and reporting DGI progress on my portfolio. Got an end-of-quarter report coming out early next week for Q3'12. Numbers look great!... :-)
    Sep 28, 2012. 12:58 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Rules For Your Own 'Perfect Investment Portfolio' [View article]

    Actually, if you think about it, 4 base hits in a row would probably yield more than just 1 run. This is what I'm always trying to stress to people at work: Don't swing for the fences, get on base consistently and you'll end up winning the game...
    Aug 17, 2012. 11:33 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Portfolio: 2012 Mid-Year Update [View article]
    I agree with Miz and everyone else, Rich. I think your contributions are very valuable! Hate to see you go over a statistic...
    Jul 7, 2012. 05:55 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Thing Warren Buffett Has Said All Year [View article]
    Whether Tim's made a buck in the market yet or not, I still think he gives great advice and puts out well-written articles. I think his theories are sound, and suspect (but don't know for sure) that he's been "paper trading" to check out his ideas.

    Keep writing, Tim. I will continue to Follow you here on Seeking Alpha...
    Jun 8, 2012. 01:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Joy Of Falling Stock Prices For Income Investors [View article]
    That's one of the great things about JNJ; they don't have to solely rely on their pharma leg, they've got consumer products and medical devices, too. Also, they have a history of keeping their pharma pipeline well stocked. All the pharmas have the same problem, but they know it and the big ones keep chugging along. I think JNJ is about as "safe" as you can get in a stock; just don't expect huge equity growth, but collect those growing dividends and re-invest, re-invest, re-invest!
    Jun 4, 2012. 12:42 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Will Soar Above ARM Holdings With New Microarchitecture [View article]
    Actually, I think Stock Croc hit the nail on the head. Tablets are just the latest incarnation of computing devices, but they are primarily content consumption devices (by a wide mark) as compared to PCs, which are content creation devices. Dropping a tablet into a dock so that it can have a real keyboard and (possibly?) mouse does not overcome the fact that the tablet cannot process nearly the same amount of data and perform the same volume, quantity and quality of tasks that even a Core i3 PC can (or an Atom-based netbook, for that matter). This is not going to change, and in the meantime Ultrabooks running Windows 8 will start to blur the lines between a traditional notebook computer and a tablet, including touch screens. No, PE, the point is that ARMH is substantially overpriced compared to INTC, and that Intel spends far more in R&D every year than ARM's current market cap. It's also absurd to compare the two companies, since ARM does absolutely no manufacturing, whereas Intel does what ARM does in terms of designing new chips plus they own their own fabs plus they do the assembly and testing of all of their own products; in other words, Intel is a manufacturing powerhouse, while ARM Holdings is just a design house that licenses their IP. It's really not a fair comparison (not fair to ARMH, that is). As an investment, INTC is clearly superior given the simple math that both stocks are currently trading for about the same dollars, but INTC's P/E is well below the market average while ARMH's is significantly above it.

    By the way, recent headline from MarketWatch today: "PC Shipments Beat Analysts' Estimates". Don't be so quick to parrot Steve Jobs and declare the PC as being dead. It certainly isn't, and it certainly is continuing to evolve...

    Apr 13, 2012. 08:24 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next To Buy, Taking Profits And Why [View article]
    Thanks for your comments.

    I believe that I mentioned in the article that VOD only pays twice a year. And, in defense of the yield I posted, I did not have a year's worth of actual numbers (dividends paid to me) to properly calculate its actual yield. However, looking at my Dividends worksheet, I see that VOD is scheduled to pay its larger dividend today, and from that amount and the amount paid in Q1, I also calculate that its actual annual yield is 5.193%. My apologies for the error. However, please also note that I passed on buying more VOD at this time, primarily because it is my understanding that they have frozen the dividend, and because the next payment I would receive with any new shares taken into account would be in Q1, and that would be the lower payment. Sorry I wasn't clearer on that.

    Thanks again... :-)
    Aug 7, 2013. 11:52 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting The Dividend Bus Rolling [View article]
    I wouldn't. I'd jump right in and start buying things like KO or PEP or JNJ or PG if I had to do it all over again, and could start over at age 25 (or better yet, 22, when I first joined Corporate America). If someone had taken the time to explain this to me the way it's been explained to me here on SA (DGI, that is), I would have made different decisions when I was younger, but I wouldn't've put my money into some stinking fund or ETF. I've lost too much money to funds and fund managers over the year; the only reason I'm in ETF in my 401k is they're my best choice, it's either ETFs or mutual funds, and the latter is more of a tar-pit than the former, but they're both worse than owning individual, solid, steady dividend growing CCCs...

    But that's just me... :-)
    Oct 4, 2012. 09:31 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment