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J.D. Welch

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  • My Mad Method Meets The 'Chowder Dividend Rule' [View article]
    You're far more industrious than I would be when it comes to yardwork, chowder. I grew up in NJ, on a 2 acre spread, and in good weather we kids always had to spend our Saturdays taking care of the yard, gardens, apple orchard, various other fruit trees and bushes, you name it. As a result, I detest yardwork, and now that I make a decent salary, I can pay to have someone else take care of it, and they do a much better job than I could hope to.

    If your yard does show up in a magazine, post a link to the photo(s) for us!
    Sep 12, 2012. 04:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investing Clearly Spotlights Failure [View article]
    TII : Intel, overvalued? Really??? It has a P/E of 10.63 as of today, and has been moving sideways since hitting a multi-year high a few months back. BTW, it has a yield of over 3.53%, so from a DGI perspective, it's a great stock, one of the best values going today. But clearly, you don't understand DGI, so just stop trolling and go away. You and toledoinvestor should get together and try to teach each other how to write in English...

    (Sorry, Obie, I know I shouldn't feed this troll, but I couldn't stand it. Intel "overvalued"??? Sheesh...)
    Sep 7, 2012. 01:04 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Take On The 4% Rule [View article]
    Now you've gone and done it, chowder! I've heard your 12% rule enough times now that I just had to add it to my personal version of the My Mad Method spreadsheet as the "Chowder Index" (CI).

    It was very easy to do, as all I needed to do was insert a column, and then add the values found in the "Yield" and the "5 Year Dividend Growth" columns together. Then, with conditional formatting, if the value in each cell in the column >= 12%, the cell turns green, if it's >= 8% but < 12% it turns yellow, and if it's < 8% it turns red.

    Now I can tell at a glance how the stocks in both my portfolio and on my watchlist are doing in terms of the "Chowder Index"... Another nice addition for helping make purchase (and hold) decisions... :-)
    Sep 4, 2012. 07:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • StoneMor Partners: For Income-Seekers With A Death Wish [View article]
    Actually, Paul, I think this is the best of the "anti-STON" articles that have come out in recent weeks, and I greatly appreciate that you were not short the units when you wrote this.

    Out of your list of 21 items, I count 5 that have wording similar to "may affect our ability to pay distributions to you at all", or to that effect. THAT in and of itself is a big red flag for me, and I've been bullish STON for a while, but trying to stay objective and gather as many facts as possible. A lot of the other points, taken from the annual report (which, I'll admit, I received but did not read) are equally as faith-shaking.

    Thank you for providing FACTS, which I do not feel that Harper or Sleuth were successful in accomplishing...
    Aug 10, 2012. 08:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Dividend Growth Stocks In A Bubble? [View article]
    >>"Yes, we are prioritizing by valuation. However, I won't think twice to purchase a fairly valued position if I can't get it at an under-valued price... I'm not going to lose out on a position over a percentage point or two when we are looking long term."<<

    That's exactly what I did today, chowder! I sold 2 positions that had substandard yields so that I could get into two other positions that were showing very favorable metrics on MyMM. When it came time to buy earlier this morning, I was vascillating, trying to come up with "the right" limit price to buy them, wondering whether the market might jump up on Monday or take a dive on the latest bad news, then realized that in one case, the price was already lower than my cost basis for that stock, and in the other case, even though it would raise my cost basis to buy today, my overall cost basis would still be below the current price. So I thought of you ("What would chowder do in this situation?"), and decided, Screw it! And bought them. For exactly the reason you stated above; while I want to get decent valuations for the stocks I buy, I don't want to "lose out on a position over a percentage point or two when [I am] looking long term." And I feel much better for doing so... Thanks for "being there" for me... :-)
    Aug 10, 2012. 07:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: What Next To Buy, And Why - August, 2012 [View article]
    Thanks, 1caflash, and thanks for the comment!

    For me, it's a labor of love. I really enjoy tracking the companies on my watchlist and in my portfolio. It's not a burden, and my goal is to eventually have about 50 positions in my portfolio, so that, all things otherwise being balanced, no one position represents more than ~2% of my total portfolio's value. That significantly reduces my risk of any one position taking out too much capital/value if something bad happens to that company. This is basically the same approach that chowder uses, which makes sense to me, and I'm building up a set of solid, blue-chip, dividend growth/champions stocks, and then building them up in a round-robin fashion over time.

    Thanks again for your kind words!
    Aug 6, 2012. 05:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel (INTC) has provided "a massive infusion of R&D resources" for its McAfee unit, says exec Mike DeCesare, and is directing those resources towards hardware-assisted security. Solutions that leverage the features of Intel motherboard chipsets and McAfee endpoint protection software will start rolling out at year's end. (IDesia acquisition)  [View news story]
    It was a brilliant acquisition. Recent announcements about the McAfee code at the silicon level bear that out. Read up on current events and stop spouting old dogma. Just cuz the financial analysts couldn't see the synergy at the time doesn't mean that the synergy doesn't exist...
    Jul 6, 2012. 12:46 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seniors Deserve Better Advice: Simpler Asset Allocation And Dividend Stocks That Produce Safe Income [View article]
    Wow, thanks Hewitt, Archman, Five+, jdg44 and others for digging into this. What he was saying didn't make sense as I was reading his analysis & recommendations, but I definitely got the sense that he was openly soliciting, and my scam-sense was tingling. If this is the sane guy that Hewitt & Archman think it is, then all I have to say is there's a special place in Hell for people who prey on children & the elderly. My own mother was a victim of those TV ads for "special issue" coins & bought & collected who knows how many pieces of worthless junk over her years of retirement, spending money she could I'll-afford to spend on such nonsense, and those bastards are "legit".

    Let's hope that Eli, et al, gets to the bottom of this. I'd be interested to learn the outcome...
    Jun 30, 2012. 02:28 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: New Metric Added [View article]
    I can send you a "blank" copy of my spreadsheet if you'd like. I've done this for about 30 folks so far. Just message me here on SA with your email address..
    Jun 29, 2012. 12:35 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Joy Of Falling Stock Prices For Income Investors [View article]
    Another great article, Tim! Congratulations on graduating, and congratuations on getting into law school, and kudos to you for taking the full-ride scholarship over W&M. Once you land a job, it really won't matter where you went to school after 3 or 5 years of working, what will matter is what you've been doing at work. Also, love your attitude about hard work! Well said. You'll go far, Kid. Stay in touch with us in SA. Even sleepless law students need a break from reading non-stop! Good luck!

    Jun 4, 2012. 12:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Expect Strong Gains In 2012 [View article]
    INTC is one of the Dow 30, so in a lot of ways and on a lot of days, as goes the DJIA/INTC, so goes INTC/DJIA. Having said that, I think the future is very bright for Intel, regardless of the direction the rest of the Dow takes. Case in point was one day last week when 27 of my 30 positions were all down, except INTC and a couple of other miscreants. :-)

    Seriously, though, it's refreshing to see all of the pro-Intel articles lately all over the place, not just here on SA. It seems to have been triggered by CES in January when the Medfield Atom smartphone reference design was unveiled by Otellini, and keeps getting juiced by more positive announcements/coverage like that of Romley and Ivy Bridge (despite the short delay in the IB release). After bashing expectations quarter after quarter, analysts are finally coming around to see that Intel has been posting some serious results, results that would make most "growth" companies envious. (I leave AAPL out of that, as there's something really fantastic going on there, obviously the exception to everyone's rules...) I'm looking forward to the earnings call in a couple of weeks to see how the market will react, and what Otellini has up his sleeve.

    (Very) Long INTC...

    Apr 5, 2012. 08:26 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Why Behind The How: The Quality Of Comments On Seeking Alpha Articles [View instapost]
    Well said, Tim. That's one of the reasons why, when I signed up for Seeking Alpha, I used basically my real name, and when I was required to have an avatar image in order to post, I chose to use my employee badge photo (which, fortunately, doesn't look terribly like a mug shot, at least IMHO...) I am what I am, and I didn't want to hide behind a false persona. (No offense to anyone out there who uses a clever pseudonym, there's no problem with that.) But I think the anonymity does bread some level of license for contempt.

    Nice blog, Rocco. Hopefully it'll get "real article" status...

    Apr 5, 2012. 07:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: What Next To Buy, And Why? - November, 2012 [View article]
    Hi, Scooter-Pop.

    To your questions, No and No. Hedges I'm not too familiar with, but if I understand what you're asking correctly, I don't use stop orders or anything like that. In general, once I buy something, I'd like to hang on to it unless it cuts or freezes its dividend. There are exceptions to that, of course, as you can see in previous articles of mine, but I've finally gotten my portfolio to where I want it in terms of my positions, and I'm likely to stand pat unless the dividend is threatened. I have used covered calls before, but I tend to be somewhat impatient and if I want to sell something, I look for a decent exit price and just go. Same thing goes for selling cash secured puts; I've done it, but I prefer to buy when I'm ready to buy, and then look for lower prices in the future, if possible, to add to that position to lower my cost basis. Does that answer your question about hedging?

    Also, I don't DRIP, but I understand the reasons why a lot of people like it. I prefer to let the cash from dividends accumulate from everything, and then decide where to deploy it myself. My portfolio generates enough dividends monthly and my commissions are so very low ($1.00 per trade) that it's not painful to deploy a few hundred bucks or more in one trade. That way, I can further my goals of getting everything to "parity", and adding new positions to try to get me to about 50 positions, all on my own terms.

    Hope that helps, and thanks for your comments!
    Nov 7, 2012. 10:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: Q3 2012 Recap [View article]
    >>> UPDATE <<<

    Sorry, folks, but I discovered today that I'd made a number of copy-and-paste errors in my spreadsheet that contributed to making the "YTD % Increase - Annual Dividends" number way too high for the most recently ended quarter. Also, I can't rely on the Yield on Cost [YoC] number that I had originally included in this article until the end of this year, end of Q4. In the EOY report, this number will be accurate, but at the moment the way I'm currently calculating Projected Annual Dividends distorts the true picture of what I will receive in the next 12 months; instead, I'm calculating how much I will receive by the end of this calendar year, and so the YoC will not be possible to calculate accurately until end of this year.

    I will work on improving this process so that I can report these numbers as accurately as possible in future quarterly recaps.

    I sincerely apologize for reporting inaccurate numbers in my Q3, 2012 recap. As I state in my “Disclaimer” on every article, I am not an investing professional, just a regular guy trying to manage his own portfolio to meet my future needs in retirement. This is a new and evolving process for me, and I’m learning as I go along. Unfortunately, part of this learning process involves making mistakes, from which lessons can be learned and applied to future efforts. I appreciate your patience and forbearance as I go through this exercise and, in time, end up with a more accurate and consistent means by which I can report to you the progress that I am making in managing my own portfolio.

    Please let me know if you have any questions, and thank you for taking the time to read this.

    Oct 4, 2012. 04:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: Q3 2012 Recap [View article]
    Thanks, Miz. I hope so! I would like to get myself to a chowder-like 50 positions, but I'm having trouble deciding whether to spend the next bit-o'-cash on improving one of the recently added ones, like AFL and/or VOD, or starting something completely new, like... (I'll let you guess...) LOL! :-)
    Oct 2, 2012. 10:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment