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J.D. Welch

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  • My Mad Method Meets The 'Chowder Dividend Rule' [View article]
    @CliffBay: Thanks for your comments. At this time, I am emailing out the spreadsheet to those folks who send me a Message here on Seeking Alpha with their email address requesting it. That's the method that's working for me at the moment. If you're interested, please do likewise.

    The column formulas should be covered in the first 2 articles I wrote:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Best thing to do is Message me your email address. I only use it to send you the spreadsheet, no spam, no hassles.

    Thanks...
    Sep 13 04:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method Meets The 'Chowder Dividend Rule' [View article]
    @DVK: What tests of yours did HAS pass? I'm curious, because the price has really run up in recent months, so I'd like to know what it is about it that made you go ahead and buy some the other day...
    Thanks,
    J.D.
    Sep 13 01:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method Meets The 'Chowder Dividend Rule' [View article]
    "I might suggest a bit of caution on DCM..."

    Thanks, David. That's good to know...
    Sep 13 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method Meets The 'Chowder Dividend Rule' [View article]
    Hi, Contraria2.

    Yes, I like HAS, or I should say, I _liked_ HAS, but there was always something a bit better to buy, and in the meantime it just keeps going up, up and up in price. So, as I told kolpin, I'd like to get some soon, but I've got some much better choices that are ahead of it in line, and after the big infusion of cash which will come as a result of my MDT shares getting called away, I'll have to be content with making smaller purchases when enough dividends accumulate from everything else. Fortunately, I'm now at the point where enough comes in monthly, and my commissions are so low, that I can make small monthly purchases. So, I've still got my eye on HAS, but I don't have any immediate plans to grab any...

    Thanks for asking, though...
    Sep 12 08:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method Meets The 'Chowder Dividend Rule' [View article]
    That's good to know about Open Office. Thanks, guys...
    Sep 11 10:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method Meets The 'Chowder Dividend Rule' [View article]
    Thanks, Miz. Yes, it is an easy metric, if you're already calculating Yield and capturing the 5 Yr Div CAGR...
    Sep 11 10:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: Putting The Chowder Dividend Rule To Work [View article]
    Don't live in the past, Miz! Press onward! LOL!

    Seriously, though, I was tracking all of the stocks that I've sold since October last, just to "prove" to myself that letting those go was a good idea, and using their proceeds to buy other positions currently in my portfolio was the "right" choice. Too crazy, not doing it any more. I've made my choices, now I have to lie in that bed, fleas and all...

    Thanks for chipping in... :-)
    Sep 11 05:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: Putting The Chowder Dividend Rule To Work [View article]
    *** Note:

    A variation of what is described in this article would be to use Yield on Cost [YOC] instead of Yield for those stocks that you hold in your portfolio. Doing so would give you a higher CDR number for those positions that have appreciated since you bought them; in other words, where your cost basis is lower than the current price.

    On the other hand, you would get a lower CDR number for those stocks where your cost basis is higher than the current price, as your YOC would be lower than the current Yield.

    This is an alternative approach, but, obviously, can only be used for those stocks that you own; you couldn't calculate YOC for those stocks that are on your watchlist which you haven't yet purchased.

    Just food for thought...
    Sep 11 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: What Next To Buy, And Why - September 2012 [View article]
    That's Vegas, toledeo baby, where the odds are stacked in the house's favor. With investing, at least I've got a fighting chance... :-)

    My YTD change from end of 2011 is +14.05%, and that doesn't count any cash contributions I've made to the IRA so far this year, just price appreciation and reinvested dividends. Of course, the S&P500, per SPY, is up 14.35%, so I'm off that index by -0.30%, but that's a recent development; prior to last week, I was beating SPY by about a percentage point. Not bragging, just reporting...

    I will write an article at the end of this month to report my end of quarter results vis-a-vis my mid-year report I did at the beginning of July, and YTD. I do not fiddle with the numbers, I just report what I've sold, what I've bought, and what I've got as of the end of the quarter and how they're doing since I bought them (up/down %)...

    :-)
    Sep 10 09:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: What Next To Buy, And Why - September 2012 [View article]
    Thanks. Actually, the quote is more along the lines of, "A portfolio is like a bar of soap; the more you touch it, the less you have left of it."

    However, at the same time, if you never touch that bar of soap, you start to stink pretty badly.

    LOL!

    The frequency and amount of trades that I've been doing in the past 11 months has tapered off considerably now that I've got my portfolio pretty much where I want it to be, and have the next purchases lined up (although those are always in flux, too, but that's part of the fun of managing my own portfolio, is working out what to buy next when I've got the cash to do so). Also, while I was paying outrageous commissions at my former broker, I've never paid more than $1.00 for a stock trade (not options) since I've moved almost everything over to my new broker, Interactive Brokers. So that cuts down on the erosion-like effect of "touching" that "bar of soap" too much...

    Thanks again! :-)
    Sep 10 06:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: What Next To Buy, And Why - September 2012 [View article]
    Thank you, toledo. That was the most helpful, un-snarky comment that I've read from you, on any article. :-)

    But don't assume you know who I've worked with in the past. I didn't torch the strawman, I just commented on my own personal experience and where that has led me to, which is that I'm better off saving the fees and managing my own portfolio. I enjoy it, it doesn't take too long and isn't a burden to me to do so, and I'm doing just fine, thanks...

    BTW, my portfolio is in an IRA, so I don't need to worry about the tax consequences of my trades...

    I think that, on the whole, as earnings go up, prices will go up correspondingly. Since there's a whole slew of CCC stocks that have been paying and increasing their dividends for many, many years, that are still in the 2.5% to 4% yield range, that would indicate that their prices HAVE been moving up while they've continued to increase dividends at a rate that meets the requirements of the Chowder Dividend Rule [CDR].

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Thanks for your comment!
    Sep 10 04:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method Meets The 'Chowder Dividend Rule' [View article]
    Thanks, rickevan. I appreciate your comment.

    As far as spreadsheet skills go, it's just a matter of using spreadsheets for years and having lots of practice doing so. But thanks... :-)
    Sep 10 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method Meets The 'Chowder Dividend Rule' [View article]
    Thanks very much, tas02.

    Yes, I am using Current Yield and not YOC in the MyMM spreadsheet. That's because YOC is subjective, in that it's relevant to my current position in a stock, whereas Current Yield is objective and applies to all stocks at the same time (that is, their current yields vis-a-vis each other at any given point in time that I've most recently updated the data). If I haven't purchased a stock, I can't calculate my YOC for it yet, so Current Yield is a level yardstick to use when looking at my watchlist and/or superlist.

    In my spreadsheet on another worksheet, I have a "Dashboard" where I display Current Yield, but also calculate my YOC for each of my positions, and even calculate the difference ("delta" in my parlance) between YOC and Current Yield, and, of course, employ Conditional Formatting on this YOC delta to illustrate which companies are doing better than others in this regard.

    Hope that helps...
    Sep 10 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method Meets The 'Chowder Dividend Rule' [View article]
    Thanks, Linda. Yes, I got your message, and sent you the MyMM spreadsheet. I hope you do have fun with it; please don't let it frustrate you, if you have any questions about it, just let me know...
    Sep 10 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method Meets The 'Chowder Dividend Rule' [View article]
    Thanks, Scooter-Pop!

    I don't know if its the devaluing of the USD, but I have quite a few MLPs and Royalty Trusts in my portfolio, and I include COP, CVX, BP and XOM in my watchlist. I'll be picking up some COP as soon as more funds trickle in from dividends, as I like them out of all of the Oil & Gas majors...
    Sep 10 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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