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J.D. Welch

 
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  • My Fear As A Dividend Investor [View article]
    BTW, I like the phrase "Buy-and-Monitor", which I first came across in one of Dave Van Knapp's recent articles. I used to be a buy-and-hold investor, but the result was years of stagnation. Now thanks to sites like SA, I can be more proactive in managing my destiny...
    Jun 7, 2012. 11:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Fear As A Dividend Investor [View article]
    Good article, Tim, good thoughts. Good to see you cranking out a bunch of articles on a consistent basis now that you're out of school. Thanks!...
    Jun 7, 2012. 11:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Intel At The 4% Yield Price [View article]
    So get out and vote this November, get yourself some representation in Congress and maybe even the White House that will meet your needs.

    Are you retired, so you can't hold your dividend-yielding stocks in an IRA? Otherwise, that's the best place to have your positions...

    Just sayin'... :-)
    May 10, 2012. 08:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Ready To Surge On New Ivy Bridge Chips, Smartphone [View article]
    Good article, but a couple of clarifying points:

    1) While the CPU performance of Ivy Bridge is not terribly higher than its predecessor Sandy Bridge chips, it has been reported that the graphics portion of the IB chip (Sandy Bridge and Ivy Bridge represent an advancement in chip design by incorporating both the CPU and GPU on the same piece of silicon) is substantially more powerful than the SB chip. This may lead to a further erosion of low to mid-range discrete graphics chip sales by AMD and NVIDIA, representing a loss of revenue for those companies and the possibility of Intel realizing higher average selling prices (ASP) of its Ivy Bridge chips.

    2) Lava is not the only smartphone manufacturer that will be producing smartphones with Intel inside. Motorola Mobility, Lenovo, ZTE and France Telecom's Orange are all in the process of producing Intel-based smartphones. I don't know the release dates, but India is not the only place where Intel smartphones will be sold.

    Of course, on both of these points, the actual results have yet to unfold.

    Long INTC...

    :-)
    Apr 26, 2012. 04:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultrabook Will Bring A Good Fortune For Intel [View article]
    Not to pile on, but a couple of things to note that you stated incorrectly or, at least, misleadingly:

    1) The AMD chips that are in Apple's MacBook Pros are NOT the CPU, but graphics chips. On that note, I expect that when the MacBook Pro line is refreshed (this summer?), they will sport Intel's Ivy Bridge processors, which have significantly improved graphics over even Intel's Sandy Bridge processors (Second Generation Core i3/5/7), and could mean that Apple opts to not include a discrete graphics chip but utilizes the uber graphics on the Ivy Bridge chips. Just a guess....

    2) "Intel is also making its way into cloud hardware and it will soon announce its first server chip in the Xenon Series."
    The Xeon (non Xenon) series of server chips have been around for a long time, they are not Intel's "first server chips". The latest Xeon chips will be based on the Romley processor which, by all accounts (Toms Hardware, AnandTech, etc) is incredibly powerful AND incredibly energy efficient for the power that it delivers.

    If you're gonna write about a company, it would be helpful if you got your facts straight beforehand. Having said that, we all make mistakes, but hopefully this clears some things up for readers who might not otherwise understand Intel's products very well, and could have been misled by these statements...

    :-)
    Apr 26, 2012. 03:43 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Intel Shares Might Be Headed Below $25 Again [View article]
    A well-written article, but I have to contend with your points:

    1) Inventories aren't the problem. The OEMs and other customers are waiting for Ivy Bridge processors to come out, which they did yesterday, to rave reviews. Also, Q1'11 was 14 weeks vs Q1'12 which was 13 weeks. That accounts for a bit over 6% of the difference between the 2 quarters, which I calculate to be roughly 13%. So that's half the difference. Between the Thai flooding affecting HDD supplies and customers anxiously awaiting Ivy Bridge to put into their shiny new Ultrabooks, I'm not too concerned about Q1 results. Q2 guidance was also better than historically typical, as Q2 is usally Intel's worst quarter.

    2) "Much of this gain was probably attributable to the general rise in the market in 2012." Which is which? Since INTC is a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is the Dow dragging INTC up along with it, or is it the other way around? Also, Intel came off of a second record-breaking year at the end of 2011, with $54Billion in revenues, up 24% from 2010's $42Billion (42? 43?), first-time-ever over $40Billion in revenues. Maybe the market is just giving the share price its due, after 8 consequitive record-breaking quarters, and that's the real reason Intel has seen such a nice rise since the start of 2012. (And really, you listen to what they say on CNBC?) :-)

    3) Not Europe again! OK, the Europe problem has been around for a while now, over a year at least, and that's baked into the share price. Everyone who does business in Europe is hurting. However, Intel's largest customer is not Europe, and it's not the USA, it's China, followed by the USA, followed by Brazil, followed by Indonesia, followed by... If Europe goes to hell in a handbasket, then that's going to affect everyone, not just Intel, so it's kinda like saying "It will rain in 2012". Secondly, why are you comparing Intel to Kellogs? Chips vs Flakes? Not a very solid comparison, IMHO.

    "With the run that Intel shares and the stock market have enjoyed, now might be a good time to take some chips off the table." -- Never a bad idea to take profits if your cost basis is low enough and/or any one position is getting a little out of whack in terms of its % of your overall portfolio. And I agree that $25 would be a great entry point for anyone who's been sitting on the sidelines. But I agree with Windsun33 that the under $25 scenario is a lot less likely than the over $30 scenario, unless there's a general meltdown of the whole market.

    I think with more Ultrabooks coming out with Ivy Bridge processors in them, Windows 8 in the fall, the crushingly efficient performance of Romley Xeon server chips, and the introduction of Intel Inside smartphones in India, China and Europe, $30 by EOY is a real possibility.

    Just sayin'... :-)
    Apr 24, 2012. 09:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Why Behind The How: The Quality Of Comments On Seeking Alpha Articles [View instapost]
    David: I'm not an SA Contributor (yet!), but as a commenter and thorough reader of comments, that sounds like an interesting proposal...

    :-)
    Apr 15, 2012. 02:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Will Soar Above ARM Holdings With New Microarchitecture [View article]
    Hi, SDNonSurfer. I'm no expert, but here are some of my thoughts along these lines:

    Historically, consumers' demand for compute power, regardless of platform, has gone up from past to present to future. Some have argued that the iPad and smartphones represent "good enough" computing, and that users don't or won't need or want the same kind of processing power that they get in PCs and PC-based software (I'm including Macs here, since they are a kind of personal computer). I think that this viewpoint is incorrect, and that, like everything else historically, users will begin to demand more and more compute power from whatever devices they choose to use to access and create data. Otherwise, why does Apple bother to continue to improve the processing power of the processors in the each new iPad generation? Secondly, once folks get a taste for using the "same" applications on their mobile devices (read, Microsoft, but anything else that runs on x86 architecture) as they are used to using on their PCs, they gonna get hooked and want more capabilities like that. I know I do with my iPhone and iPad. So I think from a capability standpoint, Intel wins there because they are superior in terms of processing power.

    From a price standpoint, Intel's ASPs have been steadily going up, not down, as have their margins. We get to hear the latest from Otellini and Smith next Tuesday, but it seems that that story hasn't changed, or isn't likely to materially. As has been noted in other Intel-related articles (look for camerguy and x85marketingguys' posts), Intel's 2+ year lead in processing capabilities, plus Tri-Gate technology, are going to drive down the per die cost of manufactuing. Also, Sandy Bridge has shown that having the graphics on the same die as the CPU eats away at the bottom of the discrete graphics card/chip business, and that with Ivy Bridge and whatever else comes next, there's upward movement into the more powerful discrete GPU products. What that means is that devices like notebooks (Ultrabooks) don't need to include the cost of a discrete GPU to get "good enough" (and still pretty darn good) graphics performance, which means Intel can charge a wee bit more for their CPUs that go into those devices while the overall cost of the device can still come down. Also, in terms of pricing, no one can touch Intel's ability to pump billions into R&D; they don't have to improve their margins, they can tread water where they are now and generate the same $ per chip in profits while making more chips and charging less for them (although, it still seems like ASP is trending up, so, looks like customers are willing to pay for Intel inside). Finally, the software ecosystem favors Intel (and, to a lesser extent, AMD) over ARMH-based notebooks or servers that may come out in the near future, further weakening those types of devices to compete in terms of price. In the end, while some manufacturers will be making ARM-based PCs and servers, I don't think there's going to be many buyers of them, and I think Mr. East's plans of chomping 40% of the PC biz just ain't gonna see the light of day...

    How's that?

    :-)
    Apr 13, 2012. 09:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Expect Strong Gains In 2012 [View article]
    Correction: Apple does not use AMD's *processors* in its 15 and 17 inch MacBook Pros, but it does use AMD's Radeon graphics chips in those models. Big difference; you made it sound like Apple was using AMD CPUs in those MBPs instead of Intel Core processors...
    Apr 5, 2012. 06:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Darkest Star In The Commodities Boom [View article]
    @dingojoe - Sounds like all the numbers you're spewing are for the USA, and I think Mark make a point that China will be in desperate need of coal in the not-too-distant future. I know that India is starved for coal, too, and they've built a ton of coal-burning electrical plants, as has China. Coal may be out of favor in the USA, but China and India will sure as hell buy ours...
    Mar 21, 2012. 09:43 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Giant Threat To Intel [View article]
    Sorry, I was called away and had to wrap up quickly...

    To get back to my point about lower-functions becoming predominent and therefore the need for higher processing powered PCs decreasing, that would be true if all you needed to do in a day are a few simple tasks. I have an iPad which I use for doing things like browsing the web and reading Natioal Geographic, etc. (I got it because I was getting eyestrain from trying to browse the web on my iPhone.) But throughout the day, I rely on my x86 (Intel) powered laptop to do a variety of functions that I couldn't possibly do on a tablet. For one thing, trying to use the on-screen keyboard on my iPad at night when I want to make a comment on an article, such as this, is very cumbersome. Often on my laptop when I'm reading an article and there is a link in it, I will position my cursor over the link, right click, and open that link in a new tab or window. I can't do this on my iPad; I have to commit to that link and lose that window to the new link. This may seem like a small thing, but it's these kinds of small things that add up and make more compute power and "traditional" PCs/laptops much more necessary today and in the foreseeable future than could be accomplished on a tablet. Even my wife, who is a stay-at-home mom and not in the workforce, has need of applications and the form factor (and processing power) of a "real" PC/laptop during her typical day.

    So, I do see the laptop/Ultrabook-with-... form factor evolving along with tablets, but I can also foresee tablets going the way of netbooks in favor of more processing power combined with touchscreens that Ultrabooks with touch screens and Windows 8 seem to be promising.

    There is a place for "good enough" processing in our lives and consumption, but they will not replace, the need for more processing power for a variety of everyday tasks. Intel has moved into the "good enough" space with its Medfield chip, and on the other end of the spectrum has delivered amazing performance combined with efficiency and security with its Romley server chips. I don't see any other company with the fab and assembly power that Intel has that can continue to keep pace with Intel. From what I've read, Global Foundries had problems with 28nm (or was it 32nm?) that caused AMD to turn to TMSC to help meet their supply needs, and TMSC is having problems at the 28nm node. Meanwhile, Intel is manufacturing and (I'm assuming) has started to ship at the 22nm node, and is building a 14nm fab in AZ. If the other foundries are stumbling at the 28nm node, who's going to be able to provide all the chips that anyone needs at smaller and smaller processing nodes besides Intel?

    I think Intel's future is fine...
    Mar 14, 2012. 06:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why? - Part 3 [View article]
    I use Interactive Brokers, LLC. Transaction fees are very low. Each sale listed in this article only cost $1.01 in commissions. That's the beauty of using IB as my broker; I can "micromanage", as you put it, to some degree without the burden of $7.95 per transaction fees...
    Jan 16, 2014. 05:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Wife's IRA: Cutting Losses, What Next To Buy, And Why? - August 2013 [View article]
    Actually, I've made her quite a bit of money, Swisser. Compared to what and how our "professional" broker was doing with her IRA before I demonstrated to her how Dividend Growth Investing was a better strategy, I'm rather pleased with the results...
    Aug 28, 2013. 06:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Wife's IRA: Cutting Losses, What Next To Buy, And Why? - August 2013 [View article]
    This is interesting, and it reminds me of the debate that raged about StoneMor Partners, L.P. (STON), about a year ago. The problem was then with STON was that one camp was calling them out for having shady accounting practices, while the other side was backing STON and saying that how they book and report revenue is "different" than most companies do, or something to that effect (you get the idea). Initially I was a STON supporter, but the more I read, the more uncomfortable I felt about how they were paying their distributions, so I ultimately sold, parting with a nice 10% yield (at that time).

    Now, like then, I have no regrets for the actions I've taken.
    Aug 28, 2013. 06:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Wife's IRA: Cutting Losses, What Next To Buy, And Why? - August 2013 [View article]
    Hi, Cranky.

    I won't get into dollar amounts, but as I said further up the comment chain, what I "lost" on those two positions is probably less than you spent on Holiday presents this past Holiday season. Factoring in dividends paid and not including contributions made this year, the portfolio has increased 7.89% since the beginning of the year. Since the S&P500 has increased 14.69% during that time, this portfolio is "losing" to the S&P500 in terms of price gain by -6.80%. However, and this is important, the curren yield of the portfolio is 4.536%, and the yield on cost is 4.699%, compared to the S&P500's yield of 1.93%. Also, the dividends earned by the portfolio this year are projected to be 61.59% more than the dividends that it earned last year, which is probably the most important metric that I measure my portfolios on in terms of annual year-to-year performance. (Total gain of the portfolio including contributions is 37.60%, so the gains in dividends is almost double the gains due to growth + contributions, which I think is a very good ratio. It means to me that I've been adding better dividend payers to the account since the end of 2012.)

    Hope that helps, and thanks for asking...
    Aug 28, 2013. 12:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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