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J.D. Welch

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  • Thanks Apple For Killing My Portfolio [View article]
    I think "refused" is too strong a word. I think the word you're looking for is "declined"...
    May 22 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Bulls: Has David Einhorn Ever Heard Of Steve Jobs? [View article]
    Vikas:

    1) Please refrain from using the term "post PC". That implies that there are no more PCs, which is certainly not the case, nor will it be for a long, long time.

    2) As a fellow Seeking Alpha contributor, not cool bashing Rocco about being a "career writer". You have 4 Followers after 10 articles. Rocco has over 4,000 Followers after more than 700 articles. I've learned valuable lessons about investing from Rocco's writings. Not cool...

    :-(
    May 20 01:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks Apple For Killing My Portfolio [View article]
    Outsider: Thanks for taking the time to comment. To your points:

    1) I'm an investor, not a trader, although I have started dabbling in writing covered call and cash-secured puts, but that' all part of my long-term investing plan and aimed at generating some extra income while a lot of positions move sideways, or I want to go long and might as well make a little extra income doing so rather than just buying a stock outright. I'm evolving as an investor.

    2) I've explained this before, but I'll go into it again. Around the time AAPL hit $602 I looked at my portfolio and saw that it was taking up more than 12% of my bottom line, which makes *me* uncomfortable for any stock. I like to keep everything below the 5% allocation level, if possible and practical. Seeing that I had realized a >60% profit, and having other things that I wanted to diversify into as part of my overall plan, I sold a portion of my meagre holdings in AAPL and took the profit that was there. I then re-invested that money elsewhere. At that time my portfolio was slightly underperforming the S&P500 on a YTD basis (I use SPY to track it); as of this past Friday close, I'm now overperforming SPY on a YTD basis, by 3X the % that I had been underperforming it. So, based on that, my observation is my reallocation of those assets has worked out for *me*, at least so far. I'm glad for you that you've been able to profit as AAPL has declined in price; I'm not at that level of sophistication, nor do I have the time to monitor the market in such a way that I might also realize the same gains. Yet.

    3) I'm not sure the word "fool" was used, but I was "blasted", IMHO, by some folks whom I view as, per their comments, very rabidly chauvanistic towards terms of Apple. Comments like "Apple is unstoppable" and "can do no wrong", and statements that they were continuing to buy on the way up. They weren't rational discussions, but foaming-at-the-mouth Apple zealots. On the whole, I find the whole thing rather amusing. It seems some folks view investing as a form of competition; I don't. The only people I'm competing against in my investment efforts are Father Time and myself.

    4) I agree with you that there has been a general pullback, obviously, but in terms of my portfolio, AAPL has slid further back then most of my other positions.

    5) My statement about Jobs was, and continues to be, "Apple is not the same company without him as they were with him... For Better Or Worse". I've never said that SJ was the "only visionary in the world", I've just lived through the periods before there was Apple Computers, when he was with Apple, when he wasn't with Apple, and when he was with Apple again. Now he is not. Change is inevitable. Things will be *different*, as in "not the same". I didn't say they would be worse, just different.

    Please enjoy the rest of your weekend... :-)
    May 19 10:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks Apple For Killing My Portfolio [View article]
    No salt, Ronin. I'm not a "See, told ya so!" kinda guy. But you might recall that I've consistently been saying in Comments alot of the same things that Rocco's been saying in his articles. I also got blasted when I said I'd sold 1/3 of my AAPL at $602 to lock in some really good profits; I was told I was foolish and had no faith in the almighty Apple. There were a lot of folks saying that they were still buying at the levels that Rocco did in his simulation, and look how it turned out. I still have my remaining AAPL shares, and am going to hold onto them at least long enough to collect some dividends and see what happens in the next few years in terms of seeing whether Cupertino can continue to innovate without SJ. That's all I was sayin'... And I've said this before, too: That Apple without Steve Jobs is not the same company as Apple with Steve Jobs, and that means for better or worse. It's interesting that the stock has slid back so far, farther than the market in general. So, no, I'm not going to rub salt in your wounds. I just recommend having balance in where your money is allocated so that you don't get burned when something like this happens again...
    May 18 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks Apple For Killing My Portfolio [View article]
    Good article, Rocco. I remember what the permabulls were saying a month ago. Where are they now?

    Took some profit at $602, invested it elsewhere, made money. I've said it before & I'm not alone: They're only paper profits until you sell...
    May 18 12:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks Apple For Killing My Portfolio [View article]
    Lucas, did you read the avalanche of comments from permabulls in Rooco's previous articles? He was running a simulation based on the stuff they were throwing out, & this article just illuminates what could have happened if someone listened to them. That's "the point"...
    May 18 12:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Apple Bulls Spin This? [View article]
    Completely different phones, the 710 & the 900...
    May 1 02:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    I know! Will this thread ever end? Rocco, you have a talent for sparking loooong, lasting debates... :-)
    Apr 29 11:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    The same goes for Stevie Ray Vaughn and Double Trouble. Good analogy! Although, I take the reverse thesis; I think in some ways Apple *may be* like Double Trouble, only time will tell...
    Apr 29 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    All good comments. The only thing I would add is that I've been on Windows7 for a while now, and I've never experienced the "Blue Screen of Death" nor had any significant glitches. On the one hand, my laptop is remotely managed by the extensive and pretty good IT department at my company, so I don't notice things going on the in the background in terms of patch upgrades and such. On the other hand, my wife has had her Win7 laptop for almost 2 years and also really hasn't experienced any problems. Win7 seems pretty stable, although there were some early issues with Hibernate that were annoying, but these got "quietly" resolved through IT's pushing of patches unnoticed by me. So, yeah, I hope they do dot their "i"s and cross their "t"s.

    Also something to consider is the head of Windows, Steven Sinofsky, who seems to be doing a great job; he's the one who, apparantly, pulled Win7 from the ashes of Vista:

    http://bit.ly/IezQDQ

    It's an old article, but, as a MSFT user and invstor, it's encouraging...
    Apr 28 05:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    I've still got the first Mac Plus I got in 1986-ish. My wife keeps wanting to get rid of it as part of cleaning out the garage, but I insist on keeping it so I can show it to my grandkids... :-)
    Apr 27 11:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    If I had $10Million, I'm not sure we'd be having this discussion over Seeking Alpha. LOL! My nestegg is much more modest than that, but my time horizon is visible, meaning, I can see the end of the tunnel, and I'm a bit behind from where I'd like to be, so I have to be somewhat less risky than someone who's younger (not saying you are or aren't) and has a higher risk tolerance. There's a comfortable amount of risk in my portfolio for me. Now, if I told my wife what I was up to, she'd probably freak out, but then again she sees "investing" in equities as "gambling" because of a bad experience a good friend of hers had whose husband was day trading and lost everything. She doesn't understand the difference between "investing" and "trading", so I've had to just quietly take control and blow some smoke up her nose until I've been able to demonstrate to her that I know what I'm doing (or at least, appear to know what I'm doing so far!). :-)

    Anyway, I understand your points, DM. It's just not in my nature to be as aggressive with my investments at this stage of my life as you say you are, and that's all fine. Like I said (somewhere, can't remember where), I'm not in competition with anyone except myself and Father Time...

    :-)
    Apr 27 11:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    That's the key phrase, Wiz; "if they keep innovating". That's the part that's got me looking 3 years down the road with a very critical eye on Apple. If they can prove that they can continue to innovate without SJ, then great, he really was able to infuse part of himself into the culture of his company. But, it's still an "if". In the meantime, I'll hold onto my AAPL shares, and my MSFT shares, and my INTC shares... And if, in that timeframe, the price of AAPL comes down far enough (low to mid-500s is fine), and I've got some dry powder, I'll probably pick up a few more shares...
    Apr 27 10:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    But they don't completely replace "traditional" PCs, including laptops, Wiz; their supplemental tools. You said it yourself, the PC is evolving, this is just part of the evolutionary stages. I think you will see PC sales pick up in 2013+ as folks who had been spending their disposable income on iPads need to refresh their PCs. And frankly, I don't care if they "refresh" with an iMac or MacBook whatever, 'cuz it's all Intel Inside!

    :-)
    Apr 27 10:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    Let's not forget that it was Intel that first went "mobile" in the mainstream with the introduction of the Centrino platform...
    Apr 27 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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