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J.D. Welch

 
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  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    Good Lord, I hope my manager isn't "trying to be more like SJ"! From what I've heard and read, he could be a real jerk. And please, stop deifying him; in the end, he was just a guy who did his job really, really well...
    Apr 27, 2012. 10:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    Don't know if you're refering to me, but for the record, I am not a "money manager", financial analyst, financial advisor, Wall Street analyst, etc., etc. I'm just a guy trying to manage his own portfolio, who likes to write and enjoys the interaction here on SA.

    :-)
    Apr 27, 2012. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    OK, DM, your turn...

    I pretty much agree with your first 2 paragraphs, although I don't think Rocco has been telling folks that they've "made a mistake by investing" in AAPL, I think he's just playing devil's advocate, and trying to write articles on options trading that are educational and helpful. I know that they've helped me a great deal, as has other SA Contributors' articles.

    That you're comfortable having all your money in AAPL and not being diversified is your business, your choice, your money. I just don't think any one stock is worth putting ALL my money behind, and I believe in the relative safety of appropriate levels of diversification. That's where my risk tolerance is. I wouldn't suggest that YOU "pull [your] money out of AAPL because it is yielding too great a return", but for me, I sold a small portion of my AAPL shares when it hit $602 a few weeks back, it was up almost 70% (I got in to AAPL relatively late in the game), and was 12% of my total portfolio. That made ME a little uncomfortable, because it didn't fit in with my "game plan", and I'm trying to stick to my strategy, which, as I said, is where my risk-o-meter is in a comfortable range. When it slid back "way" under $600 just before earnings, I sincerely wished that I'd had some dry powder, as I'd've picked up a few more shares, especially if it'd slid even further down. But, alas, the keg was dry, so... No regrets. It was a lesson to me to keep some cash around so I can be nimble when an opportunity presents itself, but I'm relatively new to managing my own portfolio, and I'm still learning, always learning.

    BTW, I'm beating the S&P500 by quite a margin being diversified as I am. AAPL plays a role in that, but it's not the only stock that's done very well. I'm very happy with the results I've seen so far using My Mad Method, and I do have a long-term perspective, so I agree with you, none of us may have AAPL in our portfolios in 3 years. But I've got to stick with my strategy (adjusting it along the way as I learn new things and as the macro environment evolves, etc, etc; I'm not going to "stick to it stubbornly" if facts are showing me that I need to evolve my strategy), but it is an organic process.

    I hope that helps. For more on how I evaluate stocks to narrow down my choices from my watchlist of about 30 stocks to a handful that I can seriously noodle over and then finally pull the trigger on when I've got more money to invest, I've written a 2 Part article for SA that can be found here (yes, shameless plug!):

    http://bit.ly/JL2fBU

    There's a link at the end of that Part 1 article that will take you to Part 2, the exciting conclusion!

    Anyway, thanks for the thoughtful dialog, and I hope what I've said helps you understand where I'm coming from. Everybody has free agency, and is free to make their own choices, but one of the really great things about Seeking Alpha is that we get to bounce ideas off each other, debate and discuss and, hopefully, learn more.

    :-)
    Apr 27, 2012. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    Hi, Demophilus. OK, new day, clear head, here we go...

    What I meant by "super bull" are the folks who have put most or all of their eggs in the AAPL basket. It wasn't meant to be derrogatory, just that they are SO bullish about AAPL that they're willing to risk most, half or even all of their portfolio on a single stock. That's pretty bullish on that stock!

    I did read the diversification article, and frankly was more than a little stunned at how many people commit half or even all of their investing dollars to a single stock (or worse, cash). It's their money, they can do what they want with it, but I think it's reckless; it's not for me. I can understand all the people that got into AAPL years ago, and wish I had, too, but in the end it's all "paper profits" until you sell. I just can't see having that much of my nestegg in one stock, regardless of how well it's currently doing. I guess I'm more of a tortoise than a hare; slow and steady wins the race. (And the race isn't against anyone else, it's my race against time, the time I have left before I'll have to retire...) For example, I get stock as part of my compensation and participate in the employee stock purchase plan at my job, because I'm pretty bullish on my own company and it's a sweet deal. But I don't just let it pile up until it's grossly disproportionate compared to the rest of my retirement funds. I have been selling it to make ends meet, but am in a better position now and can hold on to some of that stock, so I'm going to keep a portion of it as "emergency funds", which I think is better than putting it into a savings account, and I'll be taking a portion of it and writing covered calls against those shares, and if they get called away, then great, I've got a nice bundle to now increase my holdings in some of the other positions in my portfolio, or even add a new stock to my portfolio. But, that's just me...

    Your assumption about my assumption is somewhat incorrect. I think Apple has built a "moat" with its s/w ecosystem. The reason I bought an iPad is that I was getting headaches from trying to read websites (like SA) at night on my iPhone, a time when I like to do my reading before going to bed, and my laptop is just a little too wobbly to perch on my belly and surf the web. When I was researching tablets (OK, iPad vs Kindle Fire, what else is there?), one of the deciding factors for me plunking down an extra $300 for the iPad2 was the sheer number of apps available to the iOS environment (not the only deciding factor, but a big one). So I think the content side is very strong. However... I do think that having one product, the iPhone, account for so much of a % of a company's revenue is a little risky, especially when there are far more Android phones than iPhones that have been sold worldwide, AND I think that Intel-based (Android) smartphones are going to make a difference, AND I think that Windows Phone Nokia phones will, eventually, make a difference, too. So, despite its moat of interoperability between iDevices, iPhone revenues are "overweight" in terms of the total Apple revenue pie, IMHO, and that's something that one needs to keep an eye on.

    And, as I said, I have an iPhone, my wife has an iPhone, I have an iPad2, both of my daughters have iPod Touches, so, yes, I understand the "stickiness", but I also know that the consumer is a fickle fellow, and it's tough to stay King of the Hill for very long with consumer-oriented products. (The tabacco analogy just doesn't work in my mind; not the same kind of product, PM isn't competing with AAPL for the same marketshare.)

    I'm not saying Apple is doomed, I just feel that history has shown that Apple without Steve Jobs is not the same company as Apple with Steve Jobs, and I'm a student of history. That doesn't mean Apple can't continue to innovate without SJ, but until they prove that they can I'm going to remain skeptical. I'm going to hold onto my AAPL shares, and am enjoying the ride so far, but I think in 2 to 3, or maybe more, years, if they haven't proven that they can produce another disruptive product that turns the world on its ear without SJ, I'm gonna keep a keen eye on what they are doing and what the stock price is doing, and I'm not afraid to take my profits when I feel like "enough is enough", even though I may end up leaving money on the table. I'm OK with that. I have too much experience with relying too heavily on something to "be there" for me, only to have it suddenly "go away" with little or no warning (i.e., the stock price tanks) to be comfortable staying in any stock, not just AAPL, too long.

    Hope that helps... :-)
    Apr 27, 2012. 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    Hi, DM. Please see my reply to Demophilus above; same for you, I gotta get home now, but I'll reply in detail in the morning sometime. (Got morning meetings...) Later... :-)
    Apr 26, 2012. 11:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    Hi, Demophilus. I'm not trying to evade your questions, but I'm still at work and it's been a 13 hour day and I still need to make the 30 minute drive home. I will reply again tomorrow, but real quick, I own an iPhone 3GS and an iPad2, and who knows how many iPods are floating around my house. Also bought my daughter a MacBook Pro 13" when she graduated from HS so she could use it at college. So I'm not "anti-Apple" by any stretch. More in the morning... :-)
    Apr 26, 2012. 11:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    The iPhone segment is 50% of Apple's revenue. That's a risky position to be in. Yes, too much diversity can be a bad thing, but having 50% of your eggs in one basket, when there are serious players gunning for that basket (Samsung, Nokia/Microsoft, Intel) presents a potential problem for future revenues...

    One thing I've observed by reading all of these articles and comments is that AAPL "super" bulls tend to be like Apple in this regard, in that half, most or all of their investment dollars are only in AAPL. I think that's short-sighted (and by that I'm talking about a real long-term timeframe) and dangerous for your nestegg. I have AAPL in my portfolio, but like everything else that's in there, it has its % allocation, and I keep an eye on it, and all the others'...
    Apr 26, 2012. 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    Clarifying comment: If AAPL dropped from here to $450 *in the next month or so*, I'd buy more, then continue to hold.

    If it goes up to $750 from here, I'm probably gonna sell some, maybe most, but not all (I don't hold nearly as many shares as some folks have said they do, anyway), then wait through the rest of 2012 and 3013 and see what happens...

    :-)
    Apr 24, 2012. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    Thanks, Rocco!
    Apr 24, 2012. 06:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    Apparantly you didn't read the article. Rocco specifically said that the near-term looked fine for Apple. He's bearish in the 2-years-from-now+ timeframe. This past quarters' earnings fall into the "near-term" category, which, it seems, Rocco got right...

    Who looks like a clown, now?

    :-)
    Apr 24, 2012. 05:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    Totally agree with you, Rocco, as my previous posts will attest to. Apple without Steve Jobs isn't the same company as Apple with Steve Jobs, & that's history. Is this time different? A little, but not enough, IMHO. I give AAPL another 2 years OR till it hits $750, then I'm out. I still feel good about having taken a bit of profit when it hit $602 on its way up into the $640s. We'll see what tomorrows earnings report brings...

    Too bad it's taken me a freaking hour to read this article & all the comments... Now it's my sleepy time, & I'm too pooped to say much more, so I guess I'll say, 'nuff said...

    (Man, you really know how to generate a long string of comment posts, Pendola!)

    Coyotes won tonight, making franchise history. Now, about those blue lines...

    :-)
    Apr 24, 2012. 02:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear [View article]
    Try Stonemore Partners LP (STON) for the cemeteries, etc., numberguy. Great dividend. I'm long STON, not to get too off-topic... :-)
    Apr 24, 2012. 02:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dealing With Apple In Your Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks, Demo, I'll check out the link. And I understand where Infinite Loop is coming from, I just think it's a dangerous stance to take for very long. Also, I had a migraine yesterday and was a little snippy; sorry about that, Loop. Shouldn't post in pain...

    :-)
    Apr 13, 2012. 09:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dealing With Apple In Your Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    "Just a note to fellow investors: The more diversified you are, the more you average only Market returns."

    Really? How do you figure? There's no logical basis for that statement, when you look at plenty of people who are diversified and, as a result, protect themselves from any one (or overweighted) position taking a dive, yet still make significantly more than the market's returns. Good luck with that strategy, Loopy.

    :-)
    Apr 12, 2012. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dealing With Apple In Your Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    If AAPL does split, I'm very certain that they wouldn't leave the new dividend at the current per-share dollar amount. That would be FCF suicide.

    Good for you that you've been in AAPL for so long, I'm glad you're enjoying the ride. Your gains do nothing to diminish my real profits. I am not competing with you.

    Have a nice day! :-)
    Apr 12, 2012. 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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