J. M. Manness

Long-term horizon, tech, growth, homebuilders
J. M. Manness
Long-term horizon, tech, growth, homebuilders
Contributor since: 2012
Company: delQuindío Products
slowdown in the GROWTH rate.
And next Q projections are for negative growth - i.e slowdown in sales.
Oil can
good points
Very good points. As to Cook seeing long term - tho lower - growth, I agree completely.
Oil Can - Apple should continue buybacks as long as it see the stock as grossly undervalued. Then it can increase dividends.
Sorry Cin but I disagree.
The market share they have is gaining. And if you account for the market the compete in - i.e..e high end - then they have even more.
No one screens at BMW for not selling a $18,900 car.
"The big question is what will FQ1'2016 guidance be?"
This is what the nay-sayers say every quarter. As i pointed out in the post. ALWAYS pointing to some imagined failure in the future. Meanwhile, the stock founders at a 13 PE.
Sooner or later people realize "This company is making money hand over fist, and has been for the last year. Even with slowing growth it is undervalued."
that we are at the beginning of a sharp and significant price increase.
good points - but I still think we are ready for move up.
Nothing controverts the fact that the last 3 Qs have seen 30+ % earnings increase.
This is precisely my point. At some point in time, the negatives wear thin and reality of earnings and growth become incontrovertible, and then Apple rebounds. It has pretty much always been this way with Apple. IMHO
Good question. But I think that it is simplistic to think of Chinese as one group. There are many different styles just as there are here. Apple is valued there by those who can afford it, and as I have voted, that group is growing.
thanks for comment
Not all versions of Unix are open source.
Your point on multiple sourcing holds.
Still - Windows is a closed platform. Vendors cannot change it. Only the hardware.
As for "have to buy a new Mac" you should read my blog post "How I got a new MB Pro for $325" here:
Re GTAT - what I have read is that they were not able to produce what they had promised. Apple was not going to put junkie screens on the iPhone nor ones that did not meet cost projections.
GTAT system failed.
As for business ethics. The one thing we know for sure is that the CEO of GTAT sold his share before the big bad announcement. Was that ethical?
Apple and Microsoft both have proprietary systems. Both are closed to manipulation by other entities (enterprises or individuals).
Personally, I have always wondered why "open system" was so important to the average user. To the tinkerer, I can relate, but to average user, I see no purpose.
Apple is a business with the intent of making a profit. So is MSFT. They each manage their product lines with this in mind.
People should remember "
1- It was almost run into the ground by those who preceded Jobs and jobs got Apple back on track.
2- Microsoft had a lot to do with lack of interoperability. This was Bill Gates' plan to maintain hegemony. After all MS made Word on both Mac OS and MS Windows. so who was responsible if the files did not match? MS made sure that the file system changed so the latest was never compatible with Mac attempts as interoperability. MS made IE on both Mac and Win. So why was it that they were never the same?
Because Gates wanted to marginalize all competition.
very cute
Thank you for the compliment! I am pleased you found my little ramblings interesting.
While agree with you that Amazon is overpriced, I do not so much when you say that they are not innovating. They are NOT in terms of hardware, but both their store service and presentation are innovative. Additionally, their pus into cloud services was prescient - even if it was a logical move since they already had the enormous infrastructure.
The problem was that once again, the "but they cannot do it again" story held sway. This happens sometimes. But if growth continues then eventually the street realizes that it has been left behind. Apple's long term chart is a collection of long plateaus followed by steep rises.
Good things come to those who wait (at least some times). :)
I think Apple goes through cycles - the detractors hold sway, then reality makes its mark and the stock price catches up. Now we are in the first part of that cycle. Share price does not reflect the present value - let alone future. This will change eventually. Perhaps sooner rather than later. i think a better than expected quarterly report will boost prices.
Regards - JMM
Drop after an announcement has been typical for many years. It is a common "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. It has become so predictable that I think many wait for it as a buying opportunity. :-D
"I feel lost in trying to understand why so many people do not understand or appreciate what Apple is achieving."
You may like my earlier post here:
TK -
Thanks for the comment.
As for "It is a deep concern to me and IMO should be for all AAPL investors..."
I am less upset, personally. As a long term investor I believe that sooner or later the market will realize that Apple continues to provide tremendous value, and the stock price will catch up with reality.
According to Charts - Apple had some short spikes in PE (tom) around 1993 up to about 350, and later again to 275. Mostly, however, it was in the mid to high 20's since 2000 until the great recession of 2008.
Good point. Still, I think many people will continue to upgrade even if a bit less frequently.
The new monthly plan will be a boon to Apple in this area.
Thanks for a thoughtful comment. I do agree to some degree with your second paragraph.
On the first - true, the jury is still out. But I think that it is something that will prove itself - perhaps more than you think. It appears to be a very superficial addition, but will turn out to be such a real convenience that it will become relied on greatly. A real test would be to take a user and after six months reset the handset to iOS 8. My guess is that the user would miss it tremendously and be furious at the pain of doing it the old way. But just my opinion.
Best regards - JMM
Also this one on potential of Apple to put A9x chip into a PC. While speculative, the claims for the power of the A9x certainly opens the possibility.
Thanks for the comment.
The iPad Pro certainly is an impressive piece of design, but I am not sure it broke any great technical innovations - aside from the extraordinary A9x processor. I think we really have mid-level laptop performance here from an ARM processor. "Better graphics performance than 90% low end laptops." according to Schiller. I have speculated on this in the past:
But i think the 3DT was more impressive as a technical accomplishment - especially if you read the Bloomberg article. And I guess sI am a bit of a geek. :-)
" I would predict that of the new products launched on Thursday over half will have no comparable competitor for three years although there will be many competitors for each."
I think that there will be competitors with similar features to 3DT - but it will not work nearly as well. Pressure sensitivity has been developed by others - but I doubt it will as fluid and responsive as Apple's since they seem to have put a lot of hardware development into it.
For now - I think it will have a certain WOW factor once it is experienced by many people. I believe it will be one of those features that seems so innocuous - helpful but no big deal - until one goes back to being without it.
May you live long!
And Apple prosper! :-D
rmr - thanks for the correction. It IS what I intended. Probably mistyped and it got mis-corrected.
Confession: For a writer I am a horrible typist. :)
Which would you rather own share of....
1 - The one that sells the most phones, OR
2 - the one with the most profit from its cellphone?