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J Mintzmyer  

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  • Peabody Unsecured Bonds Update [View article]
    So true, only issue is that many people offer opinions and "strong convictions" with little skin in the game. It'd be nice to see how much conviction is actually behind posts sometimes. It's like on Twitter where 95%+ of traders just talk about their winners 'after' they sell (no public buy records).

    Anyways, to each their own- it is a public forum with no disclosure required unless you are the author. I get a little feisty on Fridays.

    Have a good weekend! :-)
    Aug 28, 2015. 07:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Unsecured Bonds Update [View article]
    There must be a lot of lightning where you're from.

    Wish I could make side bets with people who post comments like these...
    Aug 28, 2015. 06:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Unsecured Bonds Update [View article]
    Thanks for the comment Travis and for returning to the land of the public discussions.

    I have been especially happy with the resurgence of Cloud Peak (CLD). Much lower key, but a more quality name that got tossed with the "bathwater" as they say...
    Aug 28, 2015. 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Babies And Bathwater [View article]
    Thanks for the article Chris- very interesting stuff.

    Speaking in terms of the Ball/Rexam deal, I've actually followed this one with interest for the last 6 months.

    BLL is priced so extremely high that I don't even think the wildest (successful) anti-trust scheming could possibly make them a good investment.
    Aug 28, 2015. 04:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Unsecured Bonds Update [View article]
    You can try sending him a message. He's been quiet lately, but posted on a stock talk or 2 earlier.

    I won't speak for him at all, but it was my IMPRESSION that he was very bullish on the equity. Perhaps moreso than I am.
    Aug 28, 2015. 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Unsecured Bonds Update [View article]
    I wouldn't be excited either. I think around 20-25 is a fair range assuming the debt swap goes through.

    I paid around $15 adjusting for the June payment (bought this spring).
    Aug 28, 2015. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Unsecured Bonds Update [View article]
    If the equity can get past the $5-handle, I think it would be a fantastic time for BTU to offer that $250M of equity and then pull the $500M of additional debt financing.

    Perhaps even at $4. At $1-$2 it was pretty ridiculous.
    Aug 28, 2015. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Unsecured Bonds Update [View article]
    It's my impression (correct me if I'm wrong) that Moody's upgrades and downgrades based on the idea that the bonds are valued at 100-par.

    Moody's does NOT (again, correct me if I'm wrong) take market pricing into consideration.

    The downgrade was 100% justified, but at 32/100, even with the downgrade we are talking about attractive pricing.

    Thanks again for the update Michael.
    Aug 28, 2015. 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Unsecured Bonds Update [View article]
    I own a bunch of 2021s... tell me about it.. Haha

    Then again ACI stock was trading at less than 1% of EV for awhile there...
    Aug 28, 2015. 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Unsecured Bonds Update [View article]
    I firmly believed the equity was underpriced relative to the senior notes around a month ago. Michael and I had a good debate over that, but I definitely respect the work he has placed into this and I believe the senior notes are very attractive in the 30s.

    I still think the equity is a bit more attractive, but at mid-$2s and 30s for the notes, its getting to a near-even risk/reward tradeoff.

    It all depends how you view the 'intrinsic' EV of this firm and where you see the debt recapitalization leading to.
    Aug 28, 2015. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing: Bright Future On Sale [View article]
    I wouldn't be surprised by more bumpiness in the market.

    I won't have extensive blue chip funds available until January 1st, so we'll see...
    Aug 28, 2015. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy Bonds Are Priced In The Valley, Coincidentally Where DGAZ Is Headed [View article]
    You had insane timing!!
    Aug 27, 2015. 11:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal: Momentum And Day Trading Have Taken Over The Stock [View article]
    Both ACI and BTU have legitimate assets. The difference is that BTU has stated recapitalization potential whereas ACI might have to fight it out in court.

    On the CDS I think what he's saying is that if the tender goes through a lot of the shorts will auto-cover as they will close their short as they up-tender their debt. This ads to the squeeze.

    I sold at $4.29, much too early, but nearly a 4x in 2 weeks. Made enough profit there to bring my 2 year ACI record to a near break even. Now that ACI is $7, I'm actually well into the green on my overall portfolio holdings. That's crazy considering how early I started playing ACI (around $30).

    I own 5-figures of the 2021 notes. Down around 30% on those, but will be around even if they make the December payments.
    Aug 27, 2015. 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Placing Scorpio Tankers On Fire Sale [View article]
    Congrats on the good exit, smart timing imho. If you noticed, I took the opportunity to thin my position a bit today, taking some 'profits' on an overall basis (avg. basis vs. avg. sell), but realizing a ton of losses on a tax basis (first in, first out)
    Aug 27, 2015. 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Win-Win Letter To Peabody Energy's Management Team And Board Of Directors [View article]
    Finally seeing a long-overdue short squeeze on shifting perception of "going concern" status.

    Bonds are still cheap. I agree with Ranalli that it boggles me why a (big) hedge fund isn't playing this. Once (and if) we get above $3 on the equity, if the bonds are still $35 or less, we will be in agreement Michael.

    If we get to $5 and the bonds are sub-$40, then I'll probably change my position.
    Aug 27, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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