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J Mintzmyer

 
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  • Netflix: Key Points The Bears Miss [View article]
    biobat-- I was talking about the life of streaming-- wherein they have lost several $B, but even in the past 6m streaming lost money on a cashflow basis:

    http://bit.ly/1ARocGg

    Look at the contribution profit from DVD and compare to total profit. At best global streaming has been breakeven the first 6m.

    You know as well as I do that 95% of G&A/T&D and interest payments are directly related to the streaming biz.
    Aug 26, 2014. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Key Points The Bears Miss [View article]
    ski,

    NFLX was the best money-making proposition for DIS simply because streaming is such a lousy business.

    The competition is NOT going to come from people wanting the streaming-- it will come from those wanting the eyeballs- aka GOOG, AMZN, and maybe even FB.
    Aug 26, 2014. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Key Points The Bears Miss [View article]
    The crux of my short is that NFLX is a middleman, stuck between content providers and cable operators. NFLX is doing the best it can, with heroic effort and pretty strong results, to become more of a "content provider," but I'm not sure how well they are doing financially in terms of whether the shows ultimately will pay for themselves or not...

    I've been a NFLX customer for probably 4-5 out of the last 7 years, so I definitely like their service. I have only had cable TV for 1 out of the past 7 years.

    The fact of the matter is that NFLX is NOT ultimately competing against Comcast, et al. They are competing against AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, and the entire army of internet companies eventually. With content, add DIS, FOX, etc into the mix.

    That said NFLX has been my 2nd worst short of all-time, behind only TSLA.

    The only reason why it hasn't broken the bank is due to their financing issues in 2011, which netted me a 5-figure return. 2nd biggest return of my life, behind only AAPL this spring.

    That said my total losses even with that gain are now in the mid-4 figs.

    The point of this is to say that maybe I completely mis-read NFLX... It's hard to say since their financials are still in the garbage.
    Aug 26, 2014. 12:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Key Points The Bears Miss [View article]
    They're always undergoing some kind of 'expansion,' essentially just like AMZN.

    I definitely agree with you Bill, that the 'doomsday scenario' has seemingly been averted by NFLX. However, I do NOT agree that they look cheap. The only reasonable metric they look 'fairly valued' on is P/S-- and that is IF they offered some sort of unique patents/content-- they don't. NFLX offers a purely commodity business.
    Aug 25, 2014. 10:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Key Points The Bears Miss [View article]
    If you back out the DVD cash flow and stick with GAAP results, they haven't made a penny on streaming-- at least globally.
    Aug 25, 2014. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Key Points The Bears Miss [View article]
    Pretty good comment that sums up the NFLX bear case with the exception of one thing-- they have a pretty damn good product.

    AMZN's experience is horrendous compared to the NFLX ranking/suggestion systems and overall GUI.

    AMZN needs to spend a few million on the interface and then we'll be talking... It looks like a poorly stapled together college project at the moment.
    Aug 25, 2014. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why "S&P 2000″ Is A Fed Manufactured Mirage: The "Buy The Dips" Chart That Says It All [View article]
    Despite all the one-sided charts, Stockman peddling his likely irrelevant book, and his embarrassing 'peak' call in 2012, three facts regarding the market are non-debatable:

    1) The market is near an all-time peak in terms of P/E, even the adj. CAPE. All three other times, the market crashed drastically within 1-2 years.

    2) The Fed has driven interest rates to record lows while increasing its balance sheet by 5x -- this growth has slowed substantially, and will soon flat-line and should slowly begin to reverse in mid-2015.

    3) Corporate earnings are mostly fueled by labor efficiencies and interest rate savings. The former might be sustainable-- if we are willing to accept lower LFP while the less efficient workers stay home, but the latter is temporary.


    ---------

    The debate comes down to simply how much longer the market can continue its ascent... Obviously nobody can time it perfectly.
    Aug 25, 2014. 02:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Montage Technology: An Attractive Deal With 22.8% Annualized Return [View article]
    I doubt they'll do anything... but who knows.

    I've never seen something this shady on the markets, but then again I have only 6 years of experience.
    Aug 25, 2014. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Montage Technology: An Attractive Deal With 22.8% Annualized Return [View article]
    That's a fair enough point. Fact of the matter is INTC's involvement doesn't mean anything about the credibility of MONT's 2012-2014 sales of set-top boxes though.

    I'll agree that the INTC sale doesn't necessarily mean anything is afoul (in and of itself).
    Aug 25, 2014. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Star Bulk Carriers: Buying Up Excel's Fleet Will Position The Company For The Predicted Dry Bulk Improvements [View article]
    Well written and fairly balanced article-- I've followed dry bulk shipping and SBLK in particular since 2010, was actually going to write almost the exact same piece.

    Good to see it out here.

    I think they are a decent buy at current prices, BUT I've learned over time that the barrier to entry is just way way too low in this business overall.

    Look at SBLK, VLCCF, and SALT for example-- all three of these companies were essentially fossils (and SALT didn't exist) just 2 years ago. Now they are going to be the largest 3 public companies!?

    I have DSX shares in case of a recovery, but I'm wondering if it will ever come with the shipyards pumping the glut ever higher...
    Aug 25, 2014. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Key Points The Bears Miss [View article]
    I think you did a great job outlining the bearish points against NFLX and giving a simple rebuttal-- thanks for the good read Bill.

    One point I might add-

    1) NFLX is essentially a commodity product // counterpoint might be AMZN and Hulu (and HBO?) struggling to make traction with a competitive product.

    One point I have on your valuation argument-- you essentially are saying that NFLX is not overvalued because it is slightly cheaper than 3 extremely overvalued stocks. I think this is a bit of a straw man argument. I might also add that GOOG is far far more profitable than NFLX is-- and ever will be in the wildest bullish imaginations of margins-- so P/S comparison is rather weak.
    Aug 25, 2014. 01:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Montage Technology: An Attractive Deal With 22.8% Annualized Return [View article]
    INTC sold their shares immediately following Gravity's report-- PRIOR to the buyout.

    Whether the allegations weighed on INTC's sale, we have no idea, but the whole "INTC proves this company is legitimate" is an extremely weak argument.

    As Zhang stated, INTC invested in 2006 & 2007. Nobody is alleging that MONT is 100% artificial-- the sketchy revenues/etc didn't really take off until 2011-2012.
    Aug 25, 2014. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's IBM Stake Surpasses 7% With Strong Upside To Fair Value [View article]
    This sums up the $IBM vs. S&P argument 100%:

    "...the S&P500 is over valued. IBM isn't. We'll see in the next 3 years."

    S&P could drop 30-40% and $IBM would (all else equal) probably drop like 5-10%.
    Aug 20, 2014. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman reportedly boosting junior staff salaries by 20% [View news story]
    Such a ridiculous work culture. "Omg my Excel model is soooo much better because I came in on Saturday and brown-nosed around..."

    Pay increases honestly are probably not necessary, but weekends off-- holy cow-- what an idea!!
    Aug 20, 2014. 11:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's IBM Stake Surpasses 7% With Strong Upside To Fair Value [View article]
    Nothing wrong with a good discussion and civil disagreement. :-)

    If we see horrendous market returns for the next 2-3 years, I think $IBM can easily close that gap.

    ...and while I totally respect Warren Buffett (and would be thrilled to have even 10% of his investment success), I bought $IBM this summer and last week, and the article was published Monday. 2011 prices mean nothing to me personally.
    Aug 20, 2014. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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