Seeking Alpha

J Mintzmyer

View as an RSS Feed
View J Mintzmyer's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Diana Containerships Continues Transition [View article]
    While I agree that the NAV could deteriorate some as the vessels get older and doesn't ultimately serve as a "worst future case," I think it adequately sums up the bearish/doom case of the present.

    The NAV is already market-adjusted, and while you make excellent points about the future earnings potential of the Centaurus/Sagitta, you should also note that the Malta and Garnet as valued at near-$0 ultimate additional value. Even a tiny upswing, if only for 1 year, is pure bonus to their valuations.

    Additionally the NAV includes the balance sheet valuation of the above-market charters, not the DCF value of DCIX's cash flows. The latter is slightly higher, I didn't break it out in this article, but it's roughly $10M higher, or 28c/sh.

    ------

    Lastly, the best way to think about my price targets is like the point spread during a football game. Clearly as the game moves from 2nd quarter to 3rd quarter, the point spreads and "odds" will change if one team pulls ahead. As you can see, my price targets have shifted over the past 2 months in a bearish direction. $4.52 represents my best effort at a 'fair valuation' of DCIX's prospects at this very moment, given my assumptions.

    Some people might like to build in an additional 10-20% margin of safety, some people might use a discount rate of 8,9, or even 12,15%. I cannot satisfy everyone's efforts, so I do my best to remain transparent about HOW I reached $4.52 as a price.

    Thank you for your comment and for sharing your insights!
    Feb 20 08:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Containerships Continues Transition [View article]
    I'd prefer they can the dividend and focus on assets, but lots of people are enamored by high yielding dividends. When the markets are busted and assets are cheap, it's better (imo) to can the dividend and buy assets.

    Dividends are best paid when assets are too expensive to be attractive (i.e. near the top of the cycle).
    Feb 19 09:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Containerships Continues Transition [View article]
    Marco,

    Not sure this is a great long-term holder if you really want dividends (with stability). NAT is probably a better play for that objective.

    My personal thoughts on where I'd buy/hold/sell the stock are well reflected by Darren's comments above. If she hits $4.52+ without any updated news ($4.67 before dividend date), I'll personally sell.
    Feb 19 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Containerships Continues Transition [View article]
    Thanks Darren, I appreciate your thoughts and kind words.
    Feb 19 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Containerships Continues Transition [View article]
    Robin,

    First this is the container business, not tankers, but yes it CAN be common depending on the underlying asset valuations.

    It takes roughly 3 years to get containerships into the water and you have to secure the capital to do it. You also have to have management structures.

    We also need to remember that vessel values have absolutely plummeted in the past 3-4 years as charter rates have sunk. The NAV of DCIX's fleet in a 'good' market is $4+, the NAV in a great market is probably $6-7.

    ---

    At the moment though, you raise a great point. Why pay more than the asset values for a business that loses money?

    In this case the longs are hoping for a resurgence in charter rates. When this happens, it will happen extremely quickly. For even better perspective, go to the linked Harpex above and choose the 10 year graph. You'll see how volatile these can be.

    If the market recovers strongly, DCIX is worth $9.24 based on a 10% discount rate.

    -----

    The most important question is "what will the charter rates be in 1-4 years?" I don't pretend to know the answer, but they'll almost certainly be higher than today.
    Feb 19 01:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Content Expenses Continue To Skyrocket [View article]
    Sakelaris,

    You can't have it both ways. You can't add your internet cost to your cable bill and say how much money you are saving on NFLX.

    Either only count the premium content (HBO, Starz, Encore) and count the $8 on NFLX, or you have to count the internet access cost.
    Feb 19 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Car-Mart Is 23% Overvalued [View article]
    Before we give too many nods to the author, roughly 2/3 of this thesis was flawed. That being said, the most critical aspects are profits and credit portfolio quality and CRMT has deteriorated on both.

    I think they'll be fine long-term, but agree the headwinds might persist. I'm holding onto my position and will add more if they hit $30. I'm actually surprised we only have a 4% drop here, as I would have expected 10-15%.
    Feb 19 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media, Inc. - A Potential Multi-Bagger [View article]
    We all know the only thing that will really move DXM is strong Q4-13 and Q1-14 results.

    Yellow Media came through and has been a 3x the past year. They have another 2-3x to go most likely.

    Dex... well, we'll see.
    Feb 19 10:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Car-Mart Is 23% Overvalued [View article]
    I'll be checking on the conference call... The financing industry for sub-subprime is getting too congested again. Tapering and rate-increases in 2015 should help fix this.
    Feb 19 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Car-Mart Is 23% Overvalued [View article]
    Yeah no kidding, hope they get slammed so I can add to my long-term position. It will also help their repurchase program...

    Results were very poor, but as QE fades, the environment should become less crazy.
    Feb 18 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extreme Short Float On Angie's List [View instapost]
    Sophocles,

    We all (or most of us) know the traditional % of float that is short.

    My point was that markedly few institutions control a massive portion of the shares. If these shares were not available to borrow and/or were not expected to be sold and/or the trend of these institutions increasing their share of ownership continues, then shorts (such as myself) are in extremely hot water.

    55% in itself is a massive number, but the underlying ownership picture is even more scary.
    Feb 17 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List Is Melting Down To $0 [View article]
    Too bad they don't have any $1500, or even better $15k subscriptions.
    Feb 15 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle Was My Biggest Miss Of 2013. Will It Become My Biggest Miss Of 2014, Too? [View article]
    Mr. Krieger: If we want to talk about sentiment shifts, and missed opportunities, check out Safeway.

    I remember you talking about it in 2012, and we had a few quick talks about it. I put it on my top buy list after doing DD, but I didn't have the liquidity to open a position. After a few months I sorta forgot about them in chase of other positions (bought INTC, CSCO, DELL instead that fall), looks like I missed over a 2x.

    Then again, the stocks I bought instead performed ahead of the market (on average over my holding periods), which itself (S&P 500) performed well, so why sit around and complain. ...Just gotta be forward looking- we'll find that next CMG!

    I still think AMZN is getting a sort of 'free pass,' but that's neither here nor there. I wouldn't short them at the moment. Best of luck in the future!
    Feb 15 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle Was My Biggest Miss Of 2013. Will It Become My Biggest Miss Of 2014, Too? [View article]
    I think many older people (35-40+), no offense, don't really 'get' Chipotle. Everytime I eat there it's packed full of college-aged thru 40 year olds.

    I LOVE Qdoba and Chipotle and eat at one of the two every 2-4 weeks, usually spending around $10. My dad and I love Mexican food, he's 62, took him to both places and he wasn't impressed... at all. Prices were high- local taco shops in AZ make a more 'authentic' burrito for $3-$5. He didn't find the flavors memorable at all either. Kinda thought it was 'good' but like a Subway Mexican-knockoff gimmick.

    I hope I didn't offend you with my comment. As an 'investor' I didn't get CMG either. I passed on it at 2009 even though I loved it because I thought it was a fad and way overpriced. Probably the worst pass I made, 2nd only to AAPL at $100. Thing is the 20-40 culture loves it. I know college kids who are in $20k+ of debt that eat there several times PER WEEK.


    P.S. On AAPL I was able to buy in when multiples finally made sense, #2 portfolio position with average basis of around $460. I may have the chance to own CMG for <20 P/E in a few years... even months if the market turns. Darlings get killed the worst during a panic.
    Feb 15 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle Was My Biggest Miss Of 2013. Will It Become My Biggest Miss Of 2014, Too? [View article]
    IMO, CMG at 50x is much better than SBUX at 25x. I think SBUX is dying in terms of fashion. I wouldn't pay more than 15x for SBUX.

    Then again this is coming from a guy who thinks the best buy in the food industry is MCD at 15.
    Feb 15 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
3,477 Comments
1,750 Likes