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J Mintzmyer
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J Mintzmyer is the founder of Value Investor's Edge, a premium subscription service offered in conjunction with Seeking Alpha. J is a CFA candidate (passed Level 1 exam) and investment enthusiast who utilizes Seeking Alpha to provide a free exchange of trading and investment ideas and to provide... More
My company:
Mintzmyer Investments LLC
My blog:
Mintzmyer Investments
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  • Most Updated FRO Cash Flow Table

    Seeking Alpha is taking forever to publish my latest work, so I wanted to make this publicly available. This is based on the latest breakeven data from the Q1-15 presentation uploaded about an hour ago.

    Based on current market prices and a 12% cash yield, with 50c valuation for both cash and SFL shares, the current range is $4.29-$6.38 with a peak around $8.

    At a 15% cash yield, even the more bearish figures result in $3.53-$5.20 with a peak around $6.50.

    At $3 ($2.50 net), FRO is currently trading for a current cash yield of over 23%-- even with the fantastic dilution.

    If rates peak ($70/$50) and FRO stays $3 ($2.50 net), that's a 36% cash yield!

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: FRO
    May 29 8:55 AM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Introducing Value Investor's Edge

    I am honored to have the opportunity to launch a new Premium Service in conjunction with Seeking Alpha: Value Investor's Edge.

    This service will join several other quality offerings as part of Seeking Alpha's new initiative to bring quality exclusive content direct from selected Contributors to subscribers.

    Affordable Pricing & No Questions Asked Refund Policy

    I have decided to launch my service at the affordable price of $249 per year. I chose a lower pay notch despite the high quantity and quality of content I plan to provide because I want users from all walks of life to have access to this platform. Although the price might increase in the future, I will personally guarantee that the $249/yr price for this Seeking Alpha service never goes up for anyone who signs up within the first 3 months of the service launch date.

    Seeking Alpha provides a generous refund policy, and I wholeheartedly concur. I invite everyone to sign up, browse the content, examine the past performance, and make their decision. If you want coverage of a specific equity or you'd like to see the subscription provide a certain feature, please just ask. If the subscription and my best attempts are unable to meet your needs, I'm always happy to provide a full refund for unused time.

    Features of this Service

    Value Investor's Edge will offer 5 primary features: live-trading updates (24-hr edge), first-look at all top ideas or new selections, weekly market commentary, exclusive access to ongoing research, and consistent valuation coverage on Dow 30 and blue chip stocks as well as reader-suggested investments.

    These specific features are discussed in detail below:

    Live-Trading Updates

    For the past 2 years I have posted all of my trades live on Seeking Alpha's StockTalk system and mirrored most of these on Twitter. I will continue to post every one of my trades live, but I will be giving my subscribers a 24-hour edge on each post. Subscribers should expect to see my trades posted on Seeking Alpha and have enough time to access more illiquid options and small cap stocks prior to mass-market impact.

    I am not going to make special "trade of the weeks" or other random stuff just to fill space. These trades will occur when I believe I have a chance to exploit a substantial market mispricing or I find an attractive investment opportunity. I have recently posted the results of my trades and investments during the first 4 months of 2015. As evidenced, these trades can be sporadic, but typically are based around news catalysts such as an earnings report.

    I will post each of these trades with a blurb describing why I find the position attractive. I will answer questions as well and do my best to explain my rationale. This service is more geared towards traders, but note that over 50% of my posted trades are actually long-term in nature. For the longer-term plays, the 24-hour embargo will probably provide less immediate upside, but the ensuring discussion should prove valuable.

    First Look at New Ideas

    I'm typically following around 100 stocks, but focus my primary attention on 3-5 new investment ideas every few weeks. Often I take a position while I continue to do deeper research, and I typically only write an article if I think I have a unique view on the equity or the market is missing something critical.

    The majority of the stocks I am following, often sizeable positions, never end up as an article because of time constraints or because I do not wish to saturate my public content. Examples of these positions are current investments in Cameco (NYSE:CCJ), Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU), World Acceptance (NASDAQ:WRLD) and Scorpio Tankers (NYSE:STNG). I have followed each of these companies for several years, but have refrained from publishing coverage. In this service, I plan to highlight these approaches and valuations prior to release to the general public.

    This 'first look' will also include proprietary coverage and research which I would publish in the normal course of business. Examples include Angie's List (NASDAQ:ANGI), Diana Containerships (NASDAQ:DCIX), Nordic American Tankers (NYSE:NAT), and Frontline (NYSE:FRO). My subscribers will always have first-look access to all of my investment research- ranging from a 24-hour window to several months depending on the time critical nature of the coverage and the amount of due diligence still required.

    Weekly Market Commentary

    Towards the end of each week I will discuss critical events in the market, primarily related to my sphere of investments and research, and I will provide my opinion on potential mis-pricings or warning signs. Towards the beginning of each week, I will provide an overview of events which I will be watching over the upcoming few days.

    This feature will remain in flux based on the needs of subscribers. I will respond to all feedback and adjust coverage to be the most beneficial to everyone on average. Please note that I'm not attempting to publish my own version of "Wall Street Breakfast," but am simply trying to holistically cover potential changes to the base investment case.

    Exclusive Access to Ongoing Research

    As I mentioned earlier, I typically overview 3-5 investment ideas per week. The vast majority of these are not attractive enough to commit funds, even fewer result in public coverage.

    I will discuss ideas with my subscribers even when they are in the 'baby' stages of development. I will do this with the goal of facilitating an informed, but limited, discussion and the chance to access ideas at an earlier level. Investors taking advantage of this service would know that I am currently looking into Assurant (NYSE:AIZ) and Orocobre (OTCPK:OROCF) as potential investments. They would have seen Freeport McMorgan (NYSE:FCX) and Seabridge Gold (NYSE:SA) several months ago. We would have had discussions on Ford (NYSE:F), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), and AIG (NYSE:AIG) throughout this season.

    Consistent Valuation Coverage of Dow 30 & Blue Chips

    Although I typically publish more niche research, my primary personal investment focus is in blue chip equities. I control three portfolios based solely on long-term "buy and hold forever" stocks. Despite a similar classification "large cap value," there are phenomenal differences in valuation and sometimes surprising opportunities to make investments.

    I will provide ongoing coverage of my personal blue chip investments, and will extend cash flow analysis, capital return (repurchase and dividend metrics) analysis, and overall business discussions to the majority of blue chip stocks, to include the Dow 30. I will cover, within reasonable time constraints, any other equities that are suggested by subscribers

    FAQ

    These a few initial questions I thought of-please feel free to comment below or send me a private message if you have additional questions.

    Q: How do I sign up?

    A: Simply follow the links posted in this article, in my profile, and also posted below in the comment section.

    Q: How much time will you be spending supplying content?

    A: This depends on a week-to-week basis, but my typical ideas have been a result of dozens, perhaps hundreds of hours of research, collaboration, and writing.

    Q: How is this service better than what you currently provide for free?

    A: I only publish articles on 25% or less of my investment ideas. Oftentimes I'll work behind the scenes with other authors or limit my coverage to Tweets or Instablog type posts. This service gives me the ability to work with a limited audience and flesh out ideas prior to a full public presentation (Seeking Alpha has over 4 million members and is read by a worldwide audience).

    In addition my trade updates on StockTalks & Twitter are sometimes in more illiquid assets (options on smaller equities). It's easier to share these ideas with a more limited group to prevent disrupting the markets.

    Q: How is Seeking Alpha involved and what do they charge?

    A: Seeking Alpha provides the full back-end and customer service support. They will ensure I provide quality content and that the website stays up and running. I will receive 75% of the net proceeds of subscription revenue.

    Q: What happens if I don't find your content valuable?

    A: I'd prefer feedback so I can improve-but you can always cancel and get a full refund for unused time, no questions asked (although once again I'd prefer feedback!).

    Q: What's your experience level and success? Prove it!

    A: I am a part-time analyst, but a full-time investor. I have been a full time investor for 7 years, and have been participating on Seeking Alpha as a Contributor for over 4 years. I have won multiple awards including Top Pick, Top Idea, and numerous Editor's Choice and Small Cap Insight designations. My public record can be tracked via my several thousand Stocktalks, Tweets, and Comments. Tip Ranks currently ranks me in the top 4% worldwide based on 2-year investment return performance.

    I have recently posted my trade tracker for the first 4 months of 2015. All of my articles on Seeking Alpha are available to examine.

    Q: Your FAQ is very short- I have tons of additional questions!

    A: Kindly post below and I'll do my best to address your concerns. If it's a more specific/private question, feel free to send me a private message.

    May 05 8:22 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • 2015 Trade And Investment Performance (27 April Update)

    Methodology/History

    I update all of my trades/allocations live on Seeking Alpha (Follow) and via Twitter. I aim to be as transparent as possible, and also update trade close-outs and when I am changing my outlook on an investment.

    The following is a report on my performance during the first 4Q of 2015- divided between short-term trades (<2 month shelf life, typically earnings/catalyst trades), long-term trades (2 months - 12 months, aiming to capture what I perceive as market valuation discrepancies), and investments (typically >12 month shelf life based on strong fundamentals or considerable market mispricing).

    I've logged each trade both assuming buying alongside my entry point and holding to expiration (or indefinitely) and also assuming both my entry and exit price.

    Market Comparison

    Trade performance is only useful with some sort of barometer- I've chosen to use the S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) as I believe it captures the greatest realistic comparison to an 'index' that most investors can personally buy. I've logged the S&P based on a weekly trade occurring each Thursday on the open and closing on the next Friday as well as a "dollar cost average" method that assumes an equal-weighted purchase each Friday morning.

    Why Friday? The first trading day of the year was a Friday. Why morning? Easiest to get a solid 'open' value. What about Good Friday? I 'made' the trade on Thursday morning instead.

    The average weekly 'trade' profit was 0.2% and the average investment return was 2.1% per allocation. What does this show? Essentially a "market performing" trader would be making returns of around 0.2% per week on average. A "market performing" investor would be making a YTD return of around 2.1%.

    My Results

    I've included the 3 separate break-downs below. Light green represents open positions that are profitable and light pink represents open positions that are currently "losing." Green are closed profitable plays and red (hot pink) are closed losing plays. Starting first with "investments."

    Investment Performance

    The average "followed trade" return is 1.88%, while the "follow buy, leave open" option is 2.08%. This compares to market investment results of 2.1%. In other words-during the first 4M of 2014 my investments have been a mediocre "market perform."

    I include both results for 2 reasons: I want to see if my 'sell signal' provides any value in addition to my 'buy signal.' I also want to see if there's any sort of "market effect" around the recommendations themselves. In other words does the 'sell signal' destroy the value of the trade or is the trade a self-fulfilling prophesy. Many newsletter operators tend to create mini-pops in their recommendations, pops that quickly vanish as the writer "exits." This difference is much more critical for shorter-term trades, as we'll see later on.

    Long-Term Trade Performance

    As this chart shows, long-term trades have blown out the market return, with 24.2% per followed trade. However, with only the 'buy signal,' the trades return 11.5% on average. Realistically, there's not enough data to make a conclusion since LaQuinta (NYSE:LQ) was the only applicable trade in this category. Also note the 'hit' or successful trade ratio is very low. I'm batting an average of 36%, great MLB numbers, but clearly riskier on a trader basis. Naturally, every one of these trades has multi-bag potential, so I'm not expecting high success ratios. Note the majority of these trades are still 'open,' so the averages could fluctuate either way in huge amounts.

    Short-Term Trade Performance

    My performance in the short-term trade realm resulted in average returns of 45% per trade and nearly 96% if held to expiration. Still a limited amount of data, but trends suggest the 'sell signal' is much less valuable. This 'sell signal' might be more valuable if you focus on the smaller caps like RSH, SN, FRO, but then again you'll see the big mistake with Sanchez Energy (NYSE:SN).

    Why did I sell Sanchez? I needed money to trade Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). I then used NFLX profits to trade Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), so it's difficult to place these results into a perfect vacuum. I've received a lot of mocking for my bearish take on Netflix, but trade critics often ignore the fact that my Q1 trade was an 8-bagger all-inclusive, 16-bagger on the long side.

    Summary

    Results suggest I'm doing much better as a 'trader' than as an 'investor.' The $ values of my investment accounts also support this approach. It makes me a bit nervous since my fundamental approach is "long-term value." It's important to not let a 'hot streak' distract from long-term fundamentals or for 'ego' to get in the way of intelligent decisions.

    I keep over 80% of my assets, typically around 90%, in long-term strategies, and my Seeking Alpha coverage will continue to focus this way also.

    Apr 27 6:05 PM | Link | 2 Comments
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  • Let me get this straight, $FRO got ripped off today? They are down $100M in market cap with a P/E of 3!? Why is $SFL only up $50M? Odd...
    about 8 hours ago
  • Exited $JAKK for $7.60, gain of 20% in 3 months on this lot. Mgt still is dragging their feet on the buy back... Why!? Long Jun $7.50c.
    about 9 hours ago
  • Sold $SA for $5.92, gain of 2% in 2 months. Risk-off, plus I'm becoming increasingly skeptical about their operational potential...
    about 9 hours ago
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