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J Mintzmyer
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J Mintzmyer is a CFA candidate (testing Level 2) and investment enthusiast who utilizes Seeking Alpha to provide a free exchange of trading and investment ideas and to provide online visibility for his developing business. J is the Founder and President of Mintzmyer Investments LLC, a financial... More
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  • Is The Market Really This Broken!?

    I recently sent this blurb to a fellow SA Contributor and have kicked around the thoughts with a few friends of mine, and decided I should share with the SA community at-large:

    What do these back to back plunges of BBY and GME show us?

    Beyond the fact that many analysts have zero situation awareness (retail and electronics are weak--duh!) and the market is overenthusiastic, this sets up the entire earnings season at a precipice.

    Companies are reporting things that aren't really surprising (JCP, BBBY, SHLD, GME, BBY) and yet they are getting dismantled in trading.

    Will the same hold for the high-fliers like NFLX, LNKD, AMZN, TSLA, TWTR, FB? Not sure, but if they are held to similar standards as GME and BBY we will see drops of 20-40% for many of them. I'm currently short NFLX puts ($290 weeklies and $170 Jan14s) as a gamble on more of these fallouts.

    On BBY, I have an article in the pipeline covering this already, but the results are NOT surprising by any means.

    If you would have asked me yesterday, "J, how will BBY do?" I would have said something similar-- i.e. sales flat to small decline, profits down due to weak sector. There's 2 stocktalks from August that confirm exactly this as my view (so you can eliminate hindsight bias).

    However, what I did NOT expect (and hence why I didn't make a $10K+ killing on otm puts) was the markets reaction to this news. It's really "no shit Sherlock" type of news. A great trader needs to know both things: the info (close range) and how the market will react to it. With GME I nailed both, with BBY I only had 1 piece.

    If the market is reacting this crazy to obvious news from BBY, we are in for some wild shenanigans over the next few weeks/months.

    Best of luck in your postions!

    Disclosure: I am short NFLX, LNKD, TWTR, TSLA, ANGI.

    Additional disclosure: I have various puts on the aforementioned. I currently have no position in GME or BBY, but may enter one if the market pricing dynamics appear attractive.

    Tags: BBY, GME, Retail, Services
    Jan 16 1:13 PM | Link | 2 Comments
  • Why BBRY Made The Loss Announcement

    Note: This is purely speculative, which is why I am posting an Instablog and not writing a full article.

    I believe today's trading activity in $BBRY is completely irrational and misses the bigger point of what is really going on here. We know that Blackberry is trying to sell itself. Part of that process requires access to "the books." Most of the current information (i.e. this quarter's results), which is VERY important to buyout firms, and they are looking at, is non-public information.

    In order to act on non-public information, firms or individuals need to persuade the company to make information public. Blackberry made the extra effort today to make this information public.

    The entire reason that (I believe) Blackberry made this announcement was to clear the way for a few funds (or individuals) to purchase stock on the open market while having insider information. In this case, the insider information was 'bad news,' but it was still legally "insider info."

    Now that BBRY has plummeted even further, I expect massive buying from a few key parties (I have no idea who they might be) over the next 1-3 weeks.

    I have previously shared my firm belief in a $BBRY takeover for $15-$20 either late fall or early spring 2014. I recently sold all of my BBRY in the $10-$12 range and have staked my entire position 50% on cash and 50% in $12 March 14 calls. I will probably buy some $10 June 14 calls if the stock price persists next week.

    I expect that certain parties will begin increasing their share of BBRY stock prior to making their first bid. If the market continues to value $BBRY stock at these (single-digit) levels, the first bid might be as low as $12. Regardless, I still see a final close at $15-$20, if not higher.

    Please keep in mind this is 100% speculative. I do NOT recommend any positions based on these observations, or anything else for that matter. I just want to share my thoughts in a public forum while the news is fresh.

    Disclosure: I am long BBRY.

    Additional disclosure: I am long BBRY via $12 March 2014 calls. I may add to my position or alter my position in any way at any time.

    Tags: BBRY
    Sep 20 4:27 PM | Link | 30 Comments
  • March 9-22 Reflections

    I haven't been too active in the past two weeks, but figured it's time for a summary.

    RECENT TRADES & THOUGHTS (9-22 March):

    15 March: Sold KSS March 2013 $48c.

    Nothing but luck. $KSS popped on expiration day and I eked out a small profit. Incorrect earnings play ended up slightly positive. Nothing else to say.

    15 March: Sold IRA portion of PBI holdings.

    Bought on Nov 27 12 for $10.98 -- sold for $15.13. 41.3% gain including the 1 dividend payment. The remaining holdings in my partnership fund are still slightly in the red. I'm not sure where to close at, but I wanted to reduce my exposure. I'm ball-parking their valuation at $3-5B, so we're now inside the intrinsic range. I'll likely sell the remainder if we hit the midpoint (approx. $20).

    15 March: Added a speculative ECTY position.

    I did a brief interview with $ECTY staff the previous week, but decided to wait for fundamentals (Q4-12 figures likely out next week) before I write up any coverage. I read a news article that $2B was earmarked for advanced auto research (primarily for electric cars) per President Obama's budget, and I figured ECTY will snag a portion of this to extend their expiring DOE program. I don't have enough information (sans a hunch) to recommend this to my readers.

    THOUGHTS LOOKING FORWARD:

    $ACI: There's been a sharp rise here-- not really sure why, but it bodes well for my portfolio.

    $AMZN: We've been seeing some weakness here versus a strong run-up with $BBY. I've been a long $BBY short $AMZN for a long time, so this has been an enjoyable trend. I added some to my short when AMZN was over $270, so I'm glad for that position. It looks like my April 2013 $300c will expire worthless and I will be forced to purchase a September 2013 equivalent.

    $BBY: I have a lot of exposure here. Needless to say, it's been a great ride the past few months, but I'm ready to pare some of my gains. I expect to trim my IRA position next week.

    $HPQ: Also considering paring my position a bit in light of the recent run-up.

    $LNKD: When will this bubble burst? Am I really going to get another option roll ($185+) prior to May?

    $SPY: Is the panic coming? For a few days it looked like it, but we had a very strong Friday (March 22). I'm enjoying my across the board gains, but I have more to gain from a bear market.

    Disclosure: I am long PBI, BBY, ACI, SPY, HPQ.

    Additional disclosure: I am short AMZN and LNKD- I am short SPY with puts.

    Tags: PBI, AMZN, BBY, LNKD, ACI, SPY, KSS, HPQ
    Mar 23 7:41 AM | Link | Comment!
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