Seeking Alpha

J Mintzmyer's  Instablog

J Mintzmyer
  • on Services
Send Message
J Mintzmyer is the founder of Value Investor's Edge, a top-ranked investment service on Seeking Alpha with focus on global shipping and trade. J is a CFA candidate and investment enthusiast who utilizes Seeking Alpha to provide a free exchange of trading and investment ideas and to provide... More
My company:
Mintzmyer Investments LLC
My blog:
Mintzmyer Investments
View J Mintzmyer's Instablogs on:
  • My Universe Of Shipping Stocks

    The following are companies that I follow on a varying level- my followers can expect future articles which cover the following companies, and subscribers to Value Investor's Edge will always receive 1st look at all coverage, including deep dives into all shipping companies- both those included below and additional companies as readers bring them to my attention.

    I include the list below to provide some transparency into what I, both as an analyst and as an investor, am currently looking at.

    Dividend yields can be deceiving- some of the best companies on this list are currently paying $0, and some of the highest yielders are the worst potential investments in my opinion.

    There are many shipping companies that are not on this list- most have been excluded for a fundamental reason- such as nontrustworthy management, underwater equity, or extremely poor investment prospects. However, some companies might simply be outside my radar.

    Examples of companies that I am aware of, but did not make my list of investment focus: TEU, PRGN, SHIP, FREE, ISH, GLNG, HERO, RDC, DO. I have various reasons- some are borderline scams, others are simply poorly postitioned in their industry, and others are tremendously underwater.

    I look forward to providing strong continuing coverage on Seeking Alpha.

    I also would like to invite anyone who is curious to try 30-day no risk preview of Value Investor's Edge. The current subscription price is an extremely generous $249/yr, or less than $5/wk.

    For this research fee, you will receive 24-hr advance access to all of my trades, will receive a weekly report on a top blue chip value company, weekly market commentary focusing on new and ongoing trades, and continuing first look access at all of my shipping company research.

    During the first three 1/2 weeks of my service, I have provided 4 blue chip profiles, 8 detailed reports on various shipping entities, and 5 specific trade ideas beyond the shipping and value universe.

    This coming week alone, I plan to introduce an additional 6 detailed reports on various shipping companies. These reports are extremely detailed, are based on dozens of company-specific hours, hundreds of cumulative market research hours, and over 5 years of following and covering this sector.

    Throughout the ups and downs of the shipping cycle, I have one of the world's best track records. I successfully called investment bottoms in Diana Shipping (NYSE:DSX) $6, Nordic American Tankers (NYSE:NAT) $8, Scorpio Tankers (NYSE:STNG) $9 and Diana Containerships {The first time around} $5 (NASDAQ:DCIX).

    I correctly called for sells/shorts of Starbulk Carriers (NASDAQ:SBLK) near $15, Diana Containerships at $7, Frontline (NYSE:FRO) at $7 in 2011, Boxships (NYSE:TEU) at $6, and Paragon Shipping (NASDAQ:PRGN) at $6.

    I was one of the first to profile the resurgent Frontline at $2.30 (albeit still controversial) and to call a recovery in Nordic American Tankers under $10. My call on Nordic was selected at a "Top Idea" and the stock returned 30% in just over a month with a 4x return from the recommended options.

    --------

    Consider trying a risk-free 30 days, cancel at any time if you aren't satisfied with the research and get a full refund. Obviously I believe you'll find the $5/wk to be a bargain, and if I can save you from just one horrible investment per year or lead you to just one strong return, you'll easily pay for the subscription even with a tiny portfolio in shipping stocks.

    Send me a message if you have ANY questions and feel free to suggest shipping companies that you think I'm overlooking!

    Jun 01 2:28 AM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Most Updated FRO Cash Flow Table

    Seeking Alpha is taking forever to publish my latest work, so I wanted to make this publicly available. This is based on the latest breakeven data from the Q1-15 presentation uploaded about an hour ago.

    Based on current market prices and a 12% cash yield, with 50c valuation for both cash and SFL shares, the current range is $4.29-$6.38 with a peak around $8.

    At a 15% cash yield, even the more bearish figures result in $3.53-$5.20 with a peak around $6.50.

    At $3 ($2.50 net), FRO is currently trading for a current cash yield of over 23%-- even with the fantastic dilution.

    If rates peak ($70/$50) and FRO stays $3 ($2.50 net), that's a 36% cash yield!

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: FRO
    May 29 8:55 AM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Introducing Value Investor's Edge

    I am honored to have the opportunity to launch a new Premium Service in conjunction with Seeking Alpha: Value Investor's Edge.

    This service will join several other quality offerings as part of Seeking Alpha's new initiative to bring quality exclusive content direct from selected Contributors to subscribers.

    Affordable Pricing & No Questions Asked Refund Policy

    I have decided to launch my service at the affordable price of $249 per year. I chose a lower pay notch despite the high quantity and quality of content I plan to provide because I want users from all walks of life to have access to this platform. Although the price might increase in the future, I will personally guarantee that the annual price for this Seeking Alpha service never goes up for anyone who signs up within the first 3 months of the service launch date.

    Seeking Alpha provides a generous refund policy, and I wholeheartedly concur. I invite everyone to sign up, browse the content, examine the past performance, and make their decision. If you want coverage of a specific equity or you'd like to see the subscription provide a certain feature, please just ask. If the subscription and my best attempts are unable to meet your needs, I'm always happy to provide a full refund for unused time.

    Features of this Service

    Value Investor's Edge will offer 5 primary features: live-trading updates (24-hr edge), first-look at all top ideas or new selections, weekly market commentary, exclusive access to ongoing research, and consistent valuation coverage on Dow 30 and blue chip stocks as well as reader-suggested investments.

    These specific features are discussed in detail below:

    Live-Trading Updates

    For the past 2 years I have posted all of my trades live on Seeking Alpha's StockTalk system and mirrored most of these on Twitter. I will continue to post every one of my trades live, but I will be giving my subscribers a 24-hour edge on each post. Subscribers should expect to see my trades posted on Seeking Alpha and have enough time to access more illiquid options and small cap stocks prior to mass-market impact.

    I am not going to make special "trade of the weeks" or other random stuff just to fill space. These trades will occur when I believe I have a chance to exploit a substantial market mispricing or I find an attractive investment opportunity. I have recently posted the results of my trades and investments during the first 4 months of 2015. As evidenced, these trades can be sporadic, but typically are based around news catalysts such as an earnings report.

    I will post each of these trades with a blurb describing why I find the position attractive. I will answer questions as well and do my best to explain my rationale. This service is more geared towards traders, but note that over 50% of my posted trades are actually long-term in nature. For the longer-term plays, the 24-hour embargo will probably provide less immediate upside, but the ensuring discussion should prove valuable.

    First Look at New Ideas

    I'm typically following around 100 stocks, but focus my primary attention on 3-5 new investment ideas every few weeks. Often I take a position while I continue to do deeper research, and I typically only write an article if I think I have a unique view on the equity or the market is missing something critical.

    The majority of the stocks I am following, often sizeable positions, never end up as an article because of time constraints or because I do not wish to saturate my public content. Examples of these positions are current investments in Cameco (NYSE:CCJ), Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU), World Acceptance (NASDAQ:WRLD) and Scorpio Tankers (NYSE:STNG). I have followed each of these companies for several years, but have refrained from publishing coverage. In this service, I plan to highlight these approaches and valuations prior to release to the general public.

    This 'first look' will also include proprietary coverage and research which I would publish in the normal course of business. Examples include Angie's List (NASDAQ:ANGI), Diana Containerships (NASDAQ:DCIX), Nordic American Tankers (NYSE:NAT), and Frontline (NYSE:FRO). My subscribers will always have first-look access to all of my investment research- ranging from a 24-hour window to several months depending on the time critical nature of the coverage and the amount of due diligence still required.

    Weekly Market Commentary

    Towards the end of each week I will discuss critical events in the market, primarily related to my sphere of investments and research, and I will provide my opinion on potential mis-pricings or warning signs. Towards the beginning of each week, I will provide an overview of events which I will be watching over the upcoming few days.

    This feature will remain in flux based on the needs of subscribers. I will respond to all feedback and adjust coverage to be the most beneficial to everyone on average. Please note that I'm not attempting to publish my own version of "Wall Street Breakfast," but am simply trying to holistically cover potential changes to the base investment case.

    Exclusive Access to Ongoing Research

    As I mentioned earlier, I typically overview 3-5 investment ideas per week. The vast majority of these are not attractive enough to commit funds, even fewer result in public coverage.

    I will discuss ideas with my subscribers even when they are in the 'baby' stages of development. I will do this with the goal of facilitating an informed, but limited, discussion and the chance to access ideas at an earlier level. Investors taking advantage of this service would know that I am currently looking into Assurant (NYSE:AIZ) and Orocobre (OTCPK:OROCF) as potential investments. They would have seen Freeport McMorgan (NYSE:FCX) and Seabridge Gold (NYSE:SA) several months ago. We would have had discussions on Ford (NYSE:F), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), and AIG (NYSE:AIG) throughout this season.

    Consistent Valuation Coverage of Dow 30 & Blue Chips

    Although I typically publish more niche research, my primary personal investment focus is in blue chip equities. I control three portfolios based solely on long-term "buy and hold forever" stocks. Despite a similar classification "large cap value," there are phenomenal differences in valuation and sometimes surprising opportunities to make investments.

    I will provide ongoing coverage of my personal blue chip investments, and will extend cash flow analysis, capital return (repurchase and dividend metrics) analysis, and overall business discussions to the majority of blue chip stocks, to include the Dow 30. I will cover, within reasonable time constraints, any other equities that are suggested by subscribers

    FAQ

    These a few initial questions I thought of-please feel free to comment below or send me a private message if you have additional questions.

    Q: How do I sign up?

    A: Simply follow the links posted in this article, in my profile, and also posted below in the comment section.

    Q: How much time will you be spending supplying content?

    A: This depends on a week-to-week basis, but my typical ideas have been a result of dozens, perhaps hundreds of hours of research, collaboration, and writing.

    Q: How is this service better than what you currently provide for free?

    A: I only publish articles on 25% or less of my investment ideas. Oftentimes I'll work behind the scenes with other authors or limit my coverage to Tweets or Instablog type posts. This service gives me the ability to work with a limited audience and flesh out ideas prior to a full public presentation (Seeking Alpha has over 4 million members and is read by a worldwide audience).

    In addition my trade updates on StockTalks & Twitter are sometimes in more illiquid assets (options on smaller equities). It's easier to share these ideas with a more limited group to prevent disrupting the markets.

    Q: How is Seeking Alpha involved and what do they charge?

    A: Seeking Alpha provides the full back-end and customer service support. They will ensure I provide quality content and that the website stays up and running. I will receive 75% of the net proceeds of subscription revenue.

    Q: What happens if I don't find your content valuable?

    A: I'd prefer feedback so I can improve-but you can always cancel and get a full refund for unused time, no questions asked (although once again I'd prefer feedback!).

    Q: What's your experience level and success? Prove it!

    A: I am a part-time analyst, but a full-time investor. I have been a full time investor for 7 years, and have been participating on Seeking Alpha as a Contributor for over 4 years. I have won multiple awards including Top Pick, Top Idea, and numerous Editor's Choice and Small Cap Insight designations. My public record can be tracked via my several thousand Stocktalks, Tweets, and Comments. Tip Ranks currently ranks me in the top 4% worldwide based on 2-year investment return performance.

    I have recently posted my trade tracker for the first 4 months of 2015. All of my articles on Seeking Alpha are available to examine.

    Q: Your FAQ is very short- I have tons of additional questions!

    A: Kindly post below and I'll do my best to address your concerns. If it's a more specific/private question, feel free to send me a private message.

    May 05 8:22 PM | Link | 1 Comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • Shanghai Comp whiplash scariest thing I've seen since '11. We are far frothier. #unicorns $yelp $ibb $fb $nflx $twtr $lnkd $nflx $gpro $fbit
    2 days ago
  • Black Monday? Stay liquid my friends... U.S. markets overdue for sharp correction- especially in biotech and social media. Will this be it?
    2 days ago
  • Exclusive report covering the $FRO merger. Research library now includes over 25 professional reports: http://bit.ly/1Jx6zjQ.
    2 days ago
More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.