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J Mintzmyer
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J Mintzmyer is the founder of Value Investor's Edge, a top-ranked research service on Seeking Alpha with primary focus on global shipping and trade. J is a CFA candidate and investment enthusiast who utilizes Seeking Alpha to provide an open exchange of both trading and investment ideas. J has... More
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Mintzmyer Investments LLC
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  • Coming Soon: Price Increase For Value Investor's Edge

    A deeper discussion on Value Investor's Edge performance and benefits was posted yesterday.

    For those who missed the announcement, I have decided to raise my subscription price to $600 per year, or $75 per month (yearly is cheaper and qualifies for lifetime rate guarantee), effective August 5th, 2015.

    Those who sign on for a yearly subscription package by August 4, 2015 will receive a lifetime guarantee at $249/yr. Those who sign up on August 5 or later will still receive this guarantee, but it will be at $600/yr.

    I look forward to answering any and all questions/comments/concerns either below or via a private message.

    Value Investor's Edge is now ranked #6 of 46 premium research services offered on Seeking Alpha.

    Jun 18 8:43 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Exploiting Market Disconnects In The Shipping Sector

    I have enjoyed the first full month of coverage through my premium subscription service, Value Investor's Edge. I wanted to take this time to reflect on the past month- and offer a glimpse of future coverage endeavors.

    Background

    I am one of forty-five pioneering contributors who are building up a library of premium research content; my primary research focus is on the shipping sector. I believe this service offers potential subscribers a strong value, and I am proud to endorse Seeking Alpha's risk-free guarantee. Any investor who cancels within 30 days will receive a 100% refund. Any investor who signs up for 1-year and then cancels later due to a lack of continuing value or interest will receive a 100% refund for unused months of coverage.

    This research service is offered for $249 per year, or $31/month. I originally offered this low price because I wanted the service to be accessible to all of my followers, many of whom have interacted and share ideas with me for over 2-3 years. I also offered initial subscribers (who sign up in the first 3 months from launch) a lifetime guarantee of their $249 annual rate for this service as long as they remained subscribers.

    Exclusive Reports

    My reports in the shipping sector and related areas are high-quality research. Similar reports by private firms are typically sold for over $1000 per copy, whereas my subscribers typically receive 2-3 per week, at a net cost to subscribers of less than $3 per report. These reports are not always explicitly bullish or bearish. Some companies I cover in detail are uncertain investments and the best course of action is to avoid and observe, not every report is "actionable." I don't cherry-pick my research reports. Sometimes the best investment decision is to "wait and see." If one of my reports can help a subscriber eliminate an investment that poised unnecessary portfolio risk, just that one report could easily pay for the entire year's subscription. In addition, I have responded directly to subscriber's requests for specific company research (within reason). I also respond to all of my subscriber's personal messages of inquiry- sometimes dozens in a day or two.

    Based on the clear value-add, I have decided to raise my subscription price to $600 per year, or $75 per month (yearly is cheaper and qualifies for rate guarantee), effective August 5th, 2015. Although I am effectively raising the price today, I (perhaps foolishly) initially offered a 3 month guarantee on pricing in my first pitch. I stand by my integrity on this offer.

    The Benefits

    Subscriber's to Value Investor's Edge are offered substantial exclusive research in the shipping sector, weekly value picks and discussion, and trade ideas with a minimum 24-hour advantage prior to general dissemination. This 24-hour window is extremely crucial for thinly traded options plays. The shipping sector reports are of substantial value especially with equities that have strong disconnects to the current market realities.

    Finding and Exploiting Market Disconnects

    An example of a publicly-proven disconnect was my March 2015 article on Nordic American Tankers (NYSE:NAT). NAT closed at $10.12 prior to the first publication of my research on March 11. An example of the type of trades I aim to bring my subscribers was the included suggestion for July $11 calls, which were trading at 40-45c. Within just 1 week of publication, catalysts began to unfold as predicted, including a substantial dividend raise. Within just 1 month, the stock gained 25% (over $12.50) and the recommended options were up 4x (300% return).

    NAT continued to trade upwards as predicted (article suggested a $15-$20 range by summer), and the cumulative return (including a 38c dividend), has been well over 40% in approximately 3 months. The options are now up over 6x (500%+ return).

    This is one example of a market disconnect that I was able to exploit due to my extensive research and involvement in the shipping sector. I have followed many of these companies for over five years, through a variety of market cycles, and have earned and lost considerable amounts (in terms of my net assets) in this sector. I have learned just as much from every loss as I have from every gain. Unlike many other contributors in this sector, I am well aware of the many risks these companies offer to investors.

    I am also well aware of investment return potentials. It's impossible to perfectly time these cyclical markets, but with the right data investors can make informed decisions and only act when the risk/reward is clearly in their favor. I invest alongside my recommendations in nearly every case, and I win or lose alongside my subscribers. My future gains and my public credibility depend entirely upon my performance. How many "professional" analysts can say this?

    Trade Gaps

    A recent example of the type of trades I strive to bring subscribers is the recent trade on Ship Finance (NYSE:SFL), initiated the morning of May 29. I discussed purchase July 2015 $17.50 calls, which traded for 9-10c. One of my followers was able to pick up contracts for 6c. As SFL rallied due to huge new information hitting the marketplace, these contracts reached a price of 40c within days. I suggested selling prior to ex-dividend, as the stock trajectory slowed, and the options flattened out at a price of 30c. Every subscriber who followed on this trade alone easily paid for their entire annual subscription.

    Research Library

    In addition to the current content, subscribers to my service are offered full access to my back-library of "Pro" content, with substantial exclusive coverage dating back to 2012. Content exclusive to Value Investor's Edge has also accrued at a rapid rate. In the past month, I have produced 15 exclusive reports, some of which has been published to the Seeking Alpha public site-

    Recent examples include:

    Euronav (EURN): Made 'public' on June 2, 2015- investors have gained 7% in 2 weeks since my private buy recommendation the morning of May 29, 2015.

    Diana Shipping (DSX): Made 'public' on June 14, 2015- investors have gained nearly 14% in 2 weeks since my private buy recommendation the night of June 1, 2015.

    To be fair some of my 'public' examples have done less well- my lesser performers to-date:

    Navios Midstream Partners L.P. (NAP): Made 'public' on June 2, 2015- investors have lost 2% since my buy recommendation the afternoon of June 1, 2015.

    Frontline (FRO) has also been a poor performer relative to expectations. I stand to lose a hefty chunk on my June $3 calls. I initiated coverage of FRO at $2.31 on April 10 and recommended the August $3 calls trading for around 30c. Stock is now $2.66 and those calls are 23c approx. 2 months later.

    Additional Services for Subscribers

    Beyond my shipping coverage and trade ideas, I also write a weekly value selection (I keep 70-80% of my assets in index funds and blue chips), I cover all shipping preferred stocks, and I keep tabs on repurchase levels, dividend sustainability, and relative valuations of a wide selection of blue chips. I also answer all direct inquiries and have helped a few subscribers discover additional candidates to further diversify their blue chip selections.

    Conclusion

    Any further questions? Just leave a comment or send me a message via Seeking Alpha. I also welcome feedback or general commentary. I continually work to improve the structuring of Value Investor's Edge for the betterment of all subscribers.

    Disclaimer

    Please note that I do NOT provide investment advice. My sole business function is to provide my research and to share my personal opinion of the general markets and their investments. Subscribers to "Value Investor's Edge" are paying only for exclusive access to premium research. There are no implicit or explicit guarantees of performance, returns, or personalized advice. Although I answer personalized inquiries, these are not to be construed as investment advice, but are simply deliverable responses to personalized research requests. All research is written by J Mintzmyer and provided through Mintzmyer Investments LLC. Mintzmyer Investments LLC is not a registered advisory firm.

    Jun 18 12:04 AM | Link | 2 Comments
  • My Universe Of Shipping Stocks

    The following are companies that I follow on a varying level- my followers can expect future articles which cover the following companies, and subscribers to Value Investor's Edge will always receive 1st look at all coverage, including deep dives into all shipping companies- both those included below and additional companies as readers bring them to my attention.

    I include the list below to provide some transparency into what I, both as an analyst and as an investor, am currently looking at.

    Dividend yields can be deceiving- some of the best companies on this list are currently paying $0, and some of the highest yielders are the worst potential investments in my opinion.

    There are many shipping companies that are not on this list- most have been excluded for a fundamental reason- such as nontrustworthy management, underwater equity, or extremely poor investment prospects. However, some companies might simply be outside my radar.

    Examples of companies that I am aware of, but did not make my list of investment focus: TEU, PRGN, SHIP, FREE, ISH, GLNG, HERO, RDC, DO. I have various reasons- some are borderline scams, others are simply poorly postitioned in their industry, and others are tremendously underwater.

    I look forward to providing strong continuing coverage on Seeking Alpha.

    I also would like to invite anyone who is curious to try 30-day no risk preview of Value Investor's Edge. The current subscription price is an extremely generous $249/yr, or less than $5/wk.

    For this research fee, you will receive 24-hr advance access to all of my trades, will receive a weekly report on a top blue chip value company, weekly market commentary focusing on new and ongoing trades, and continuing first look access at all of my shipping company research.

    During the first three 1/2 weeks of my service, I have provided 4 blue chip profiles, 8 detailed reports on various shipping entities, and 5 specific trade ideas beyond the shipping and value universe.

    This coming week alone, I plan to introduce an additional 6 detailed reports on various shipping companies. These reports are extremely detailed, are based on dozens of company-specific hours, hundreds of cumulative market research hours, and over 5 years of following and covering this sector.

    Throughout the ups and downs of the shipping cycle, I have one of the world's best track records. I successfully called investment bottoms in Diana Shipping (NYSE:DSX) $6, Nordic American Tankers (NYSE:NAT) $8, Scorpio Tankers (NYSE:STNG) $9 and Diana Containerships {The first time around} $5 (NASDAQ:DCIX).

    I correctly called for sells/shorts of Starbulk Carriers (NASDAQ:SBLK) near $15, Diana Containerships at $7, Frontline (NYSE:FRO) at $7 in 2011, Boxships (NYSE:TEU) at $6, and Paragon Shipping (NASDAQ:PRGN) at $6.

    I was one of the first to profile the resurgent Frontline at $2.30 (albeit still controversial) and to call a recovery in Nordic American Tankers under $10. My call on Nordic was selected at a "Top Idea" and the stock returned 30% in just over a month with a 4x return from the recommended options.

    --------

    Consider trying a risk-free 30 days, cancel at any time if you aren't satisfied with the research and get a full refund. Obviously I believe you'll find the $5/wk to be a bargain, and if I can save you from just one horrible investment per year or lead you to just one strong return, you'll easily pay for the subscription even with a tiny portfolio in shipping stocks.

    Send me a message if you have ANY questions and feel free to suggest shipping companies that you think I'm overlooking!

    Jun 01 2:28 AM | Link | 1 Comment
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