• J Mintzmyer
    Between $LNKD, $AMZN, $NFLX, $CRM, $TSLA, $FB, $PCLN - are we in a tech 2.0 bubble? Not saying short all, just saying, look out below in 1y.
    8/1/13
    Reply (54)
    • gabi1: yeah ,.im losing my shirt on tsla puts!!!!
      8/1/13
    • Matthew Lewis: You gotta be out of your mind to be short anything right now. The market can stay irrational for a long time.
      8/1/13
    • $Reed: AMZN has been overvalued for 10 years, ANGI TSLA,LNKD are most mispriced I believe. Not ready to naked short any yet-don't fight the Fed.
      8/2/13
    • J Mintzmyer: Agreed, but with job patterns shifting to lower labor force participation, we could be below 7% very soon.
      8/2/13
    • Rico Kastilani: The trend is your friend for now. Until that changes go with the flow.
      8/2/13
    • J Mintzmyer: Definitely true for the short-term Rico. I try to visualize most of my positions for a minimum of 1-2 years. Hard to short that way...
      8/2/13
    • Rico Kastilani: The bulk of my earnings for a living comes from trading and taking advantage of option volatility premiums.
      8/2/13
    • Rico Kastilani: So for me; I have to make money right now, today.
      8/2/13
    • J Mintzmyer: I respect that. I can't typically spend enough day-to-day time to monitor as well. Good luck.
      8/2/13
    • Rico Kastilani: Thank you J. Didn't mean to bash you, I'm just saying why short-term matters to me. Good luck to u too!
      8/2/13
    • Tales From The Future: Maybe not a bubble yet, but near one. Euphoria is there. I only saw value in $AAPL at 350-400$ among the well-known names recently.
      8/2/13
    • Tales From The Future: One could also add $YELP to this group, crazy movements. 1999 coming again soon?
      8/2/13
    • $Reed: Sure looks like it, especially with $TSLA. Perfect story stock, "new industry", insane P/E and valuation. Too risky to short though imho
      8/2/13
    • Matthew Lewis: Is it 1999 or 2000? There are a lot of dead corpses of people who shorted tech stocks in 1999 and got carried out in body bags.
      8/2/13
    • Matthew Lewis: They were eventually right, but not before losing everything.
      8/2/13
    • J Mintzmyer: I agree that $YELP is in bubble zone, but they could also be taken out by $YHOO or $GOOG.
      8/2/13
    • Tales From The Future: Agreed, I wouldn't short YELP, potential acquisition target at "just" 4bn USD. True about 1999 and body bags, but bubble end-game near imho.
      8/2/13
    • Tales From The Future: Also feels strange that the media such as CNBC celebrate $FB back at IPO price. Is that an achievement after 1yr and steep 50% drop :) ?
      8/2/13
    • Zeus2012: Stock price will continue to move higher even after taper starts. The real crack won't happen until Fed starts to raise rates (2016 maybe?)
      8/2/13
    • J Mintzmyer: I don't agree Zeus. Markets are forward looking.
      8/2/13
    • Zeus2012: I hope you are right. I still don't understand the move in some of these names.
      8/2/13
    • J Mintzmyer: It's momentum trading. One of the big crazes (not new) of this period. That coupled with short squeezes. Lots of traders seek names with
      8/2/13
    • J Mintzmyer: large short interest and buy just to squeeze. Look at $GME. Great value around $20, but shorts got too greedy. Now it's $50. $20 was absurd,
      8/2/13
    • J Mintzmyer: but value is $35 tops. Silly shorts don't hedge and get forced out. Same happening with $LNKD and $AMZN. Way too many weak players.
      8/2/13
    • J Mintzmyer: I was a kid during the late 1990s, but assuming short interest was lower? It seems there are more educated bears now?
      8/2/13
    • Zeus2012: Problem is this can last a while. TSLA, for example, has a very similar ownership structure to AMZN. Very small float that's easily
      8/2/13
    • Zeus2012: manipulated by the sentiment of the day. LNKD to a lesser extent. Still, until the institution owners sell (which is what happened
      8/2/13
    • Zeus2012: in NFLX), you have these momos guys bidding up the small amount of the outstanding float. Tons of these guys were out in force bragging
      8/2/13
    • Zeus2012: on Twitter about how astute they are to the market and selling their $99 a month service. LNKD, for example, can conceivably go to
      8/2/13
    • Zeus2012: $300 a share before year end at this rate. While I agree with you over the longer term, do you have enough capital to stay in the game?
      8/2/13
    • Zeus2012: This is what concerns me about all these names. Like the 2000 crash, all these momos will be carried out in body bags but
      8/2/13
    • Zeus2012: that's not going to happen while the Fed prints $85 billion (or even 50% of that, or over $40 billion) a month.
      8/2/13
    • J Mintzmyer: I admit I made a mistake with my strategy on $LNKD because I had August $210c and sold them last week. I had 100/70 coverage which means
      8/2/13
    • J Mintzmyer: this move up would have given me a NET GAIN. Started this strategy at $LNKD $120 and it's been great to me, I've lost very little $120-$200
      8/2/13
    • J Mintzmyer: I lost a ton of $$ the past 2-3 days alone. I'm long coal stocks, long $BODY-OLD and short $LNKD and $AMZN. It's been a tough week.
      8/2/13
    • J Mintzmyer: I have funding to take $LNKD $500+ if I execute right strategy. 'Sleeping' on it this wkend, I'll share plan nxt wk. $TSLA puts big factor.
      8/2/13
    • J Mintzmyer: Might go "biggest balloon" strategy-- I cover $AMZN and $NFLX and focus all capital on $LNKD, $TSLA, and $ANGI. Need time to be rational.
      8/2/13
    • J Mintzmyer: Buying power #1 factor-- $ACIIQ below $5 brokerage requires 50% coverage instead of 30%. ACI is my #1 long. Approx. 125% long / -110% short.
      8/2/13
    • Zeus2012: Best of luck. Learned my lesson on AMZN last year so been staying away from shorting any of these momo names.
      8/2/13
    • J Mintzmyer: My entire 125% long is hedged with $SPY puts- so the best thing that could happen to me is a systemic crash.
      8/2/13
    • chaalz: Scary indeed. But hoping FB makes one last push to 42 next week before forming a new base for the next 2 months.
      8/3/13
    • Zeus2012: There's still a lot of people looking to get out of FB @ $38. Your next catalyst is if it gets added to SP500 - institutions are
      8/3/13
    • Zeus2012: significantly under owned that stock.
      8/3/13
    • Matthew Lewis: You're buying coal stocks on margin?
      8/3/13
    • J*H*M: Any future in coal? China and other countries are cutting back on that crap.
      8/3/13
    • J Mintzmyer: Matt-- Not specifically coal stocks, but my total portfolio is on slight margin (rather small- approx 135% total including short coverage).
      8/3/13
    • J Mintzmyer: $ACIIQ is my largest position, approx 10% of my portfolio (20% total in coal- my largest play), when it dropped below $5 my buying power
      8/3/13
    • J Mintzmyer: got hit, stocks $5+ give 50% margin, under $5 only 30%. It's not necessarily that I bought the $ACIIQ "on margin," but it hurts flexibility.
      8/3/13
    • J Mintzmyer: $ANRZQ just broke $5 on Friday. It's smaller maybe 3% of portfolio, but still. If 13% of portfolio drops to 30%, I lose much flexibility.
      8/3/13
    • J Mintzmyer: Basically, traditional value employing old-fashioned 'hedge fund' approach (100% long/short). Getting decimated in this mkt- options help!!
      8/3/13
    • J Mintzmyer: J*H*M- I think so. But in '10 my 'largest play' was in shipping, and that ended bad so who knows. Largest play in '12 was GME/BBY/RIMM.
      8/3/13
    • Rico Kastilani: J coal is a dying industry. I suggest you start looking into the shale oil and gas boom. $KOG and $COG is good start.
      8/3/13
    • Rico Kastilani: Those 2 companies have stuffed my pockets with cash.
      8/3/13
    • J Mintzmyer: Great move 1-2 years ago Rico. In fact the long shale short coal would have been a great 1y return! Looking forward... looks all priced in.
      8/4/13