Seeking Alpha
  • J Mintzmyer
    Looks like $TSLA will get a bit more gas. This has been a painful earnings season for my short portfolio: $ANGI, $AMZN, $NFLX, $LNKD, TSLA.
    8/7/13
    Reply (51)
    • Zeus2012: Dude - LNKD is forming a base the last 2 days and has not give up any of the earnings gap. Be really careful with this.
      8/7/13
    • J Mintzmyer: I'm buying a new hedge and increasing my short-- probably will buy the Nov $250c-- haven't decided whether to do 100/50 coverage or 100/100.
      8/7/13
    • J Mintzmyer: New capital clears for trading tomorrow- bumping up LNKD and starting a $GME short. My buying power got killed last week...
      8/7/13
    • J Mintzmyer: Wanted to start $GME short on Mon-- it was $51... TVM and opportunity cost for you--- ACH takes a week to clear. Annoying. My fault though.
      8/7/13
    • Zeus2012: Be careful out there. We may see a slight pull back in the near term (general market) but it'll be bought.
      8/7/13
    • lildimsum7: your shorts are risky stuff. I learned a long time ago not to short stocks that run on momentum and only short stocks with a catalyst
      8/7/13
    • Paulo Santos: Well, at least TSLA is not growing anymore - if not for international deliveries it would already be shrinking this Q.
      8/7/13
    • Paulo Santos: Saw a guy in the TSLA forum which got his new Model S in 11 days ... and this was in June. Delivery times seems to be getting faster.
      8/7/13
    • James Sands: When are you getting your Tesla Paulo????
      8/7/13
    • Paulo Santos: No plans for that, but the thing is interesting.
      8/7/13
    • Paulo Santos: With 5k deliveries in Q1, 5.15k deliveries in Q2, and now predicting 5k deliveries in Q3 WITH international, this means US demand ...
      8/7/13
    • Paulo Santos: ... has already peaked. Which is consistent with people getting their cars quickly, as well. And with TSLA still predicting 21k ...
      8/7/13
    • Paulo Santos: deliveries for the year, even though that includes international (so US 10.15k deliveries in H1 and less than that in H2),
      8/7/13
    • J Mintzmyer: I don't doubt the 2013 #s but I highly doubt the projections into '15 and beyond. Even if you believe the projections the valuation is huge!
      8/7/13
    • Zeus2012: JM - why short these names when momentum is clearly on their side. These names don't collapse overnight. Look at your experience
      8/7/13
    • Zeus2012: with NFLX in 2011. Why not enter a short when the sentiment changes due to a catalyst (in the case of NFLX, a mgmt mistake).
      8/7/13
    • Zeus2012: If you must, at least wait until the tone of the market turns more cautious. Right now, many fund managers are chasing the beta trade
      8/7/13
    • Zeus2012: due to underperformance ytd. Financial assets are being bid up which is what the Fed is trying to engineer. Why fight this trend?
      8/7/13
    • J Mintzmyer: Zeus- you're absolutely right about a catalyst, it definitely helps. In the case of $NFLX most of the 'mgt mistake' is all mis-direction and
      8/7/13
    • Paulo Santos: One could argue that the numbers in TSLA already show that demand in the U.S. has peaked for the model S, which the stock doesn't discount.
      8/7/13
    • J Mintzmyer: hindsight. 'Quikster' was rediculous. Agree to that. But the price hiking was necessary to avoid bankruptcy. Most of the chatter about
      8/7/13
    • J Mintzmyer: "management mistakes" was just analysts making excuses for why the bottom fell out of the stock. The bottom fell out because of a rediculous
      8/7/13
    • J Mintzmyer: valuation on a company with billions of debt and pending liquidity issues. Hence the bottoming was close to the debt and equity raise.
      8/7/13
    • J Mintzmyer: In regards to $LNKD- who knows what the 'catalyst' will be. Most likely the stock will just turn on panic and we will see a cascade down
      8/7/13
    • Zeus2012: JM - the bottom falling out of the stock took some time and one can tell the trend turning. When not forgo the first 10%
      8/7/13
    • J Mintzmyer: likely to around $50 or so. If you wait until QE is actually taken away, it will probably be too late. The markets are forward looking sans
      8/7/13
    • Zeus2012: and short it when there is a confirmation of a change in sentiment.
      8/7/13
    • J Mintzmyer: a few inefficiencies and irrationality. If the market was 100% rational or efficient stock picking would be an absolute waste of time. That
      8/7/13
    • J Mintzmyer: said, for someone with not enough patience- fundamentals really are a waste of time evaluating as well. Wow-- that was a lot of posts!
      8/7/13
    • Zeus2012: Paulo - if you are right about TSLA, you'll be able to see it in the next quarter's number. In the meantime, doubt the stock will collapse
      8/7/13
    • Zeus2012: as there are plenty of "true believers". Plenty of time to short this once the thesis is confirmed. Until then, I suspect this
      8/7/13
    • Zeus2012: will be a frustrating and costly process.
      8/7/13
    • Paulo Santos: It's been obvious since the quarter before, yet the stock is still headed to the clouds.
      8/7/13
    • Paulo Santos: This Q just confirmed the suspicion, but the numbers already told the same story the Q before - that demand in the U.S. had peaked.
      8/7/13
    • James Sands: How many BMWs, Mercecdez and Porsche are bought annually?? Tesla can compete with this market for sure.
      8/7/13
    • James Sands: Markets may be getting ahead of themselves, but there are a lot of companies of late proving conventional market wrong.
      8/7/13
    • James Sands: To me this signifies stubbornness or lack of vision to adapt for companies who have had long histories of operation. Or perhaps greed....
      8/7/13
    • James Sands: to keep the status quo
      8/7/13
    • Paulo Santos: From reading the TSLA boards I think TSLA is about to crash. Lots of people riding inconscientious amounts of calls, just like with AAPL.
      8/7/13
    • Paulo Santos: That and the peaked US demand.
      8/7/13
    • J Mintzmyer: Hopefully it hits soon- I got in way too early with $50 Dec (bought in June) and $80 Sep (bought in mid-July).
      8/7/13
    • J Mintzmyer: The $80s will almost definitely expire worthless- I might buy some $80s or $90s for Nov.
      8/7/13
    • Paulo Santos: One guy I saw had $69k in OTM calls + little puts expiring this week... all strikes above $155 ... $160, $165 ... $180. Real crazy.
      8/7/13
    • Zeus2012: Paulo - TSLA has delivered a good product in Model S and have shown that there's demand for such product. Thus, the Street is giving
      8/7/13
    • Zeus2012: TSLA the benefit of doubt. Aside from Model S, Musk has also floated the Model X concept which is suppose to be for mainstream folks.
      8/7/13
    • Zeus2012: Whether or not this is a pipe dream and whether Model S will sell internationally is not something that will be determined in a quarter
      8/7/13
    • Zeus2012: or two. I've been skeptical and maintain my skepticism about the valuation. However, I could be wrong and I rather wait for more data
      8/7/13
    • Zeus2012: before committing capital on a trade that may drag out 6-8 quarters.
      8/7/13
    • Paulo Santos: It will sell, but the point is that it has PEAKED already in the U.S.
      8/8/13
    • Zeus2012: Looks like AAPL is sucking a lot of the momo flow away from GOOG, TSLA, LNKD, etc.
      8/14/13
    • Bret Kenwell: I totally get shorting overvalued stocks, but firing at the some of the strongest momentum names in the game? I don't know man. Not for me.
      8/16/13