Herbalife's Analyst Day Sheds Light On The Brand [View article]
tftf is right, it is doubtful that someone with years of market experience is making a bet that the FTC and SEC will get involved and that that is the only way out. The fact that a pop-and-drop has occurred through revenues in every country consistently gives rise to the fact that in a year or two of time it's very likely that 20% of HLF's revenue will dissipate substantially since that is the amount from the United States. Add in that HLF is running out of countries to pillage and you have a disaster waiting to happen.
GT Advanced Technologies Wasn't A Buy... Until Now [View article]
Pone, good questions...
1) from the recent 10-Q you can deduce that a majority of the reason for the negative cash flow was the outflow of customer deposits. This makes me skeptical to Kathy's statement earlier. (about $80M lost) ~$106M was also lost from a decrease in deferred revenue. However, inventories have also increased and that leads me to believe that there is still demand for the product lines. I have a feeling that this will show a significant increase in the coming quarter due to the news in November regarding China's support for the solar business. While it may not be organic sometimes money is just money.
2) This is a very difficult question to answer at this point. My hunch is that if I'm correct regarding China we may see them break even in the next quarter and positive 2 quarters by now. If I'm wrong then it may be some time and they may sell this HiCz unit they hinted at on the conference call we could see a massive influx sooner rather than later. Industry analysts are expecting this HiCz unit to be amazingly profitable in the coming months since it is one of the most efficient solar panels on the market so we may see an upside surprise there as well.
Also, I agree with your comment above regarding the balance sheet but with recent developments and my rumination regarding the company over the past few weeks I don't see the worst case scenario developing. Additionally, the recent $200M loan on GTATs balance sheet is financed at a meager 3.3%, lower than some of the draw downs Tesla obtained from the DOE. Very low financing costs right now.
As a final note pone I should give full disclosure and let you know that I am out of this trade as I traded more based on the technicals and sentiment than the fundamentals here. Thanks for stopping by!
"The sector is clearly not understood well by the market, since lead acid battery companies like Exide and Enersys (and JCI) are nothing like an ultracapacitor company like Maxwell, which is nothing like a Li-ion company like AONE. Each operates in a different market, and those markets have different prospects.
Right now I think XIDE and MXWL are cheap. AONE is also cheap but may be in a death spiral, and the other two are somewhat reasonably valued."
Also, this strategic partnership seems pretty telling of the promises regarding stop-start technology http://bit.ly/13bz4ip
History And Valuation Makes Cash Guzzling Tesla A Short [View article]
A123 went bankrupt because it focused on overpriced Lithium Ion technology in a similar hype while advanced Lead-Acid batteries are cheaper and more durable. It's why companies such as Exide could be such great investments in the near term with stop-start technology
GT Advanced Technologies Wasn't A Buy... Until Now [View article]
Thank you bluefin646, whether we were lucky or right I am unsure of but the stock does have solid value and a great opportunity with both the HiCz panels and Chinese subsidies as well as the growing LED business.
GT Advanced Technologies Wasn't A Buy... Until Now [View article]
This is true if they weren't still profitable and they weren't looking to diversify the business and stay a solar company, but I am confident the LED business is going to be very successful if solar does not have any success. Since management capitulated in this past call and stated they do not see success with solar I feel that is not baked into the price. This was mentioned in the article
GT Advanced Technologies Wasn't A Buy... Until Now [View article]
Alan I apologize for the delay in response as I've been quite busy but I thank you for your comment. Obviously, your comment resonates with me. I recently took the first level of the CFA and I can say that what you are saying has been spot on but missed in my application of the material. Since I write these articles to learn I thank you for that. Both the cash comments and tangible book value comment make a lot of sense. I have naively assumed that the time it takes them to deliver a machine is simply a function of the business they are in. Analysts have not pointed to this being an issue so it hasn't been taken into account. I do feel they are very well financed though
Iridium's $6 Stock Could Double In 2013, While Sprint And Nokia Might Surge 50% [View article]
I've made a noteworthy amount of money by buying stocks with large short percentages. It's wise to see what the shorts may be seeing, but sometimes this can be a great catalyst for the stock going higher, not lower :) Cheers
Some 2012 lessons of investing don't look that unfamiliar: Risk did better than risk-off; don't fight the Fed (or the ECB); it's better to always buy cheap than to try to factor in market timing. What did you learn this year? [View news story]
You create your own luck. I may have been lucky this year but I worked my butt off to be!
Did The CEO Of Herbalife Violate The Fair Disclosure Rule? [View article]
Fun Fact: If it's disclosed to investors in her reports, and before conducting any deals then it's actually permissible, even by CFA standards that are stricter than standard law in some circumstances.
You state "Assuming this 1.9% churn rate continues in 2013, that churn will result in the loss of more than 4.3 million subscribers from the Q3 base of 19,041,519 self-pay subscribers - subscribers that need to be replaced just to stay even."
If we use 19M as a base then 2% is about 3/400K in subscribers that will be lost next year. (You've stated this in one of your comments about net ads). Over ten years, yes that can be about 4M subscribers but obviously this isn't your point. What am I missing here?
Herbalife's Analyst Day Sheds Light On The Brand [View article]
Hedge Funds: The Most Expensive Bargain In Town [View article]
Careful.
GT Advanced Technologies Wasn't A Buy... Until Now [View article]
1) from the recent 10-Q you can deduce that a majority of the reason for the negative cash flow was the outflow of customer deposits. This makes me skeptical to Kathy's statement earlier. (about $80M lost) ~$106M was also lost from a decrease in deferred revenue. However, inventories have also increased and that leads me to believe that there is still demand for the product lines. I have a feeling that this will show a significant increase in the coming quarter due to the news in November regarding China's support for the solar business. While it may not be organic sometimes money is just money.
2) This is a very difficult question to answer at this point. My hunch is that if I'm correct regarding China we may see them break even in the next quarter and positive 2 quarters by now. If I'm wrong then it may be some time and they may sell this HiCz unit they hinted at on the conference call we could see a massive influx sooner rather than later. Industry analysts are expecting this HiCz unit to be amazingly profitable in the coming months since it is one of the most efficient solar panels on the market so we may see an upside surprise there as well.
Also, I agree with your comment above regarding the balance sheet but with recent developments and my rumination regarding the company over the past few weeks I don't see the worst case scenario developing. Additionally, the recent $200M loan on GTATs balance sheet is financed at a meager 3.3%, lower than some of the draw downs Tesla obtained from the DOE. Very low financing costs right now.
As a final note pone I should give full disclosure and let you know that I am out of this trade as I traded more based on the technicals and sentiment than the fundamentals here. Thanks for stopping by!
History And Valuation Makes Cash Guzzling Tesla A Short [View article]
John Peterson has a fantastic article explaining the battery business
http://bit.ly/QYo0kB
Tom Konrad also has a great comment under his article
http://bit.ly/XePGRZ
"The sector is clearly not understood well by the market, since lead acid battery companies like Exide and Enersys (and JCI) are nothing like an ultracapacitor company like Maxwell, which is nothing like a Li-ion company like AONE. Each operates in a different market, and those markets have different prospects.
Right now I think XIDE and MXWL are cheap. AONE is also cheap but may be in a death spiral, and the other two are somewhat reasonably valued."
Also, this strategic partnership seems pretty telling of the promises regarding stop-start technology
http://bit.ly/13bz4ip
http://bit.ly/XePEti
History And Valuation Makes Cash Guzzling Tesla A Short [View article]
Exide Technologies Management Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
GT Advanced Technologies Wasn't A Buy... Until Now [View article]
GT Advanced Technologies Wasn't A Buy... Until Now [View article]
GT Advanced Technologies Wasn't A Buy... Until Now [View article]
GT Advanced Technologies Wasn't A Buy... Until Now [View article]
GT Advanced Technologies Wasn't A Buy... Until Now [View article]
Iridium's $6 Stock Could Double In 2013, While Sprint And Nokia Might Surge 50% [View article]
Some 2012 lessons of investing don't look that unfamiliar: Risk did better than risk-off; don't fight the Fed (or the ECB); it's better to always buy cheap than to try to factor in market timing. What did you learn this year? [View news story]
Did The CEO Of Herbalife Violate The Fair Disclosure Rule? [View article]
Sirius XM Is Facing Its Own Cliff [View article]
Just curious on the numbers here
You state "Assuming this 1.9% churn rate continues in 2013, that churn will result in the loss of more than 4.3 million subscribers from the Q3 base of 19,041,519 self-pay subscribers - subscribers that need to be replaced just to stay even."
If we use 19M as a base then 2% is about 3/400K in subscribers that will be lost next year. (You've stated this in one of your comments about net ads). Over ten years, yes that can be about 4M subscribers but obviously this isn't your point. What am I missing here?