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J. Sobes

 
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  • GT Advanced Technologies Wasn't A Buy... Until Now [View article]
    Pone, good questions...

    1) from the recent 10-Q you can deduce that a majority of the reason for the negative cash flow was the outflow of customer deposits. This makes me skeptical to Kathy's statement earlier. (about $80M lost) ~$106M was also lost from a decrease in deferred revenue. However, inventories have also increased and that leads me to believe that there is still demand for the product lines. I have a feeling that this will show a significant increase in the coming quarter due to the news in November regarding China's support for the solar business. While it may not be organic sometimes money is just money.

    2) This is a very difficult question to answer at this point. My hunch is that if I'm correct regarding China we may see them break even in the next quarter and positive 2 quarters by now. If I'm wrong then it may be some time and they may sell this HiCz unit they hinted at on the conference call we could see a massive influx sooner rather than later. Industry analysts are expecting this HiCz unit to be amazingly profitable in the coming months since it is one of the most efficient solar panels on the market so we may see an upside surprise there as well.

    Also, I agree with your comment above regarding the balance sheet but with recent developments and my rumination regarding the company over the past few weeks I don't see the worst case scenario developing. Additionally, the recent $200M loan on GTATs balance sheet is financed at a meager 3.3%, lower than some of the draw downs Tesla obtained from the DOE. Very low financing costs right now.

    As a final note pone I should give full disclosure and let you know that I am out of this trade as I traded more based on the technicals and sentiment than the fundamentals here. Thanks for stopping by!
    Jan 7 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies Wasn't A Buy... Until Now [View article]
    Where did you read this? Can I see your source? I was lead to a different conclusion by my research
    Jan 3 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies Wasn't A Buy... Until Now [View article]
    Thank you bluefin646, whether we were lucky or right I am unsure of but the stock does have solid value and a great opportunity with both the HiCz panels and Chinese subsidies as well as the growing LED business.
    Jan 3 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies Wasn't A Buy... Until Now [View article]
    This is true if they weren't still profitable and they weren't looking to diversify the business and stay a solar company, but I am confident the LED business is going to be very successful if solar does not have any success. Since management capitulated in this past call and stated they do not see success with solar I feel that is not baked into the price. This was mentioned in the article
    Jan 3 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies Wasn't A Buy... Until Now [View article]
    I'm sorry to hear that Sal
    Jan 3 02:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies Wasn't A Buy... Until Now [View article]
    Alan I apologize for the delay in response as I've been quite busy but I thank you for your comment. Obviously, your comment resonates with me. I recently took the first level of the CFA and I can say that what you are saying has been spot on but missed in my application of the material. Since I write these articles to learn I thank you for that. Both the cash comments and tangible book value comment make a lot of sense. I have naively assumed that the time it takes them to deliver a machine is simply a function of the business they are in. Analysts have not pointed to this being an issue so it hasn't been taken into account. I do feel they are very well financed though
    Jan 3 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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