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Jack Banser

 
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  • WPX Reshapes Itself Heading Into 2015 [View article]
    I wrote this piece on Monday and did not see this before it was published,

    "In other WPX Energy news, Director William G. Lowrie bought 5,000 shares of the stock on the open market in a transaction dated Monday, December 15th. The shares were purchased at an average cost of $10.35 per share, for a total transaction of $51,750.00."

    More insider buying, obviously these guys are confident.
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Talisman +47% after buyout, but should Repsol have waited for a better deal? [View news story]
    Should be the other way around, Talisman should be the one waiting to get a better deal.
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talisman Deal: Quick To Abandon Ship? [View article]
    Gringo,

    I prefer the phrase "spread themselves too thin". Its easier to be successful and profitable with a more managed and focused scope of operations. And I don't know if you think they expanded in last few years but thats simply not the case, prior to 1992 Talisman was BP Canada. Most of their major M&A activity was in the late 90's, when they acquired most of their SW Asia and North sea assets through M&A.
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talisman Deal: Quick To Abandon Ship? [View article]
    742,

    It was reported today that there are others preparing and contemplating bids. (I wrote this piece over the weekend)
    Dec 15, 2014. 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talisman Deal: Quick To Abandon Ship? [View article]
    Gringo,

    With the first phase of their divestiture plan they reduced debt by $1B in the 1st quarter of this year. If not sold, and they complete the other portion of divestitures ($2B) they will utilize some of this to further reduce debt. I don't see the debt as a reason to sell at a discount currently.

    Also, this in reply to mark as well, over 60% of their revenue comes from natural gas. That remains the same price it started around the beginning of the year. Its just my 2 cents that they shouldn't sell in this exact environment.
    Dec 15, 2014. 07:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Talisman Deal: Quick To Abandon Ship? [View article]
    IDK much,


    My point exactly. Why in the world would they sell at that price at this time.
    Dec 15, 2014. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talisman Deal: Quick To Abandon Ship? [View article]
    lolhammer,

    I would agree if no one ends up buying the whole company the shares will slump again back to the lows. But if its not a sale of the whole company, Talisman should still be able to sell some of its assets and will most likely meet its extra +$2B divestiture plan by mid-2015 which in the long term will be extremely good for both Talisman and its shareholders.
    Dec 15, 2014. 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerald Oil: Adjusting To The Current Oil Environment [View article]
    James,

    Listed on the AMEX, few requirements they have to meet to continue to be listed there. Dejour energy (DEJ) has traded under $1 for over 5 years now on the AMEX.
    Dec 13, 2014. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerald Oil: Adjusting To The Current Oil Environment [View article]
    Shallow sand,
    Low High
    1Q 2015 Average 4,000 4,300
    2Q 2015 Average 4,500 4,800
    3Q 2015 Average 4,300 4,600
    4Q 2015 Average 4,000 4,300
    Y/Y production growth 25% 34%

    With the completion of the 7 wells in low rider due in the first part of the year they will have a nice increase but obviously by the end of the year the 1 rig program can not outpace decline.
    Dec 13, 2014. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerald Oil: Adjusting To The Current Oil Environment [View article]
    745,

    When I said "clearly oil is not something to bet the farm on at the moment" I was referring to the buying of oil producers (Emerald). Emerald is a very risky play and I would never deny that, at the moment all oil E&P names are risky with the uncertainty of the oil market. At this point honestly it might just be speculation on where the bottom of oil is for the share price, $45 very well could come and boy would that hurt.
    Dec 13, 2014. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerald Oil: Adjusting To The Current Oil Environment [View article]
    Eldemoure,

    I would not expect them to take a pay cut. The new COO got a pretty handsome package, but a large piece of it is bonus which will be directly linked with the company's performance. Considering the shares that management have bought in the past have been in the $6's and $7's I would not be surprised in the slightest if any of them purchased shares at these levels. Note in the release (from the area I quoted above) where they say "...will allocate free cash flow into the acquisition of both Emerald common equity AND convertible bonds in the open market and reduction of borrowing base debt" Although I said and/or in my piece it does appear they will probably do both if they can, even with those convertible notes turning to shares they will still have less than 100 million common shares (could be closer to 80 million after the convertibles convert) and they could make a nice dent in that if they buyback, as they plan if they are FCF positive in Q2--- which they expect they will achieve even with oil around $60. So hey if oil wants to stick around $60 and these shares want to stick around $1.00 until April that's fine, let them buyback the shares at these levels.

    In short though I do see how many think these guys are over paying themselves. That is probably true. But their operations and fundamentals in the past year do speak for themselves, they have really grown this company in the last year. It's not like the shares are down because of poor performance, they're down on oil.
    Dec 12, 2014. 09:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerald Oil: Adjusting To The Current Oil Environment [View article]
    Revagent,

    The 1 rig is for new development (the drilling of new wells), keep in mind they have plenty of wells already on production and even with the pace of a 1 rig program they still expect to average production of 4,300 boe/d for the 4th quarter of 2015. So in theory a 1 rig program would not actually be practical if they were going to stick with it for probably 2 years or more. And keep in mind just because that is there plan for 2015, they can always opt to add rigs if they see fit. But the 1 rig program enables them to spend significantly less and thus survive the slide in oil prices. It would make no sense to drill more new wells and ramp up production when they're more than likely going to be selling at such low prices.
    Dec 12, 2014. 07:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerald Oil: Adjusting To The Current Oil Environment [View article]
    745,

    How do you know oil will hit $45? Certainly I don't know it won't, as no one can definitively say where oil will go, and where it will find support. My point though is that there is a pattern with oil prices (at some point it will probably go back up--unless it is the end of oil all together) and for the time being, emerald is prepared to take on this storm, with this plan. Clearly oil is not something to bet the farm on at the moment unless you have some info I don't. I'm definitely not going to sell my Emerald shares though (and will add hopefully soon) because I still see long term value.
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerald Oil: Adjusting To The Current Oil Environment [View article]
    Tiger,

    Possibly reaction to those convertible notes being converted to shares, short term bad, long term good.
    Dec 12, 2014. 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerald Oil cuts guidance for Q4 production, 2015 production and capex [View news story]
    I see the whole thing as good news. They are adjusting to the current oil environment as there is no reason to continue to be aggressive at the moment. Liking the new COO appointment as well.
    Dec 11, 2014. 06:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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